Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

they completely ignored all the shenanigans that happened in 2008 and put 0 people 1 person in jail

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[wtlloyd]

What font is that!

I, too, thought "man, that's some pretty good handwriting!"

 

[Swampgator]

There are only 2 non-demo Model S in US inventory. The drawdown is complete. No reason to do this unless you want to avoid osborne effect.

 

[Nocturnal]

So if everything that was logically, but in the extreme, being shorted one week ago is now up huge. Obviously the move is to short, no?

That's the issue. These firms and shorts are trying to fight with logic, charts, and investment theses. Their opponents are random idiots. If the shorts thought we were stubborn, they have no idea. I'm hoping this hurts enough of them to make them reconsider the entire business model of shorting. In respect to Tesla especially.

 

[phantasms]

Award worthy manipulation this morning. Bravo. Looking for that ~10:30 V.

 

[henchman24]

I think the 3 swapover to a casting is a pretty simple thing to explain, there isn't room or the appetite for downtime to swap the castings for Y/3. Both need to be made at a very high volume while other factories are being built. I think once Austin is up and going, Tesla could shut down the lines temporarily, convert the 3 in Fremont over to a casting, and accept some downtime. If they shutdown prior to Austin opening, they won't be able to meet production/sales targets.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Given the above, I highly doubt that any refreshed Model S/X will have casting employed. Not as long as it is still coming out of Fremont.

Elon answered this issue directly last year (3rd Row Podcast?). Model 3 will not be converted over to the Model Y style subframe casting in the near future because the Model 3 body line is bought, paid for, and producing profit. They won't switch Model 3 production methods in Fremont until it is profitable to do so. Elon said likely several years. BTW, MiC Model 3 won't switch right away either.

Model S/X are lower volume models which could easily use the two smaller casting machines which produced the initial run of Model Y 2-piece rear subframes beginning 2020Q1. Those casting machines are now idle. I guarantee Tesla finds some useful purpose for them.

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well I just joined you all. Bought stock today in Tesla.. I will check back on its growth in 10 years.

Welcome aboard.

Unlikely you see a nice easy 5x that you can just sit back and enjoy over the next few years. It's gonna take work! And determination! Easy enough to buy today when everyone's excited and everything's going up, are you ready to act when the economy corrects and TSLA sinks to $500? When CNBC says Tesla is done are you ready to double down? That's the tough part!

Trust the process!

 

[bkp_duke]

Elon answered this issue directly last year (3rd Row Podcast?). Model 3 will not be converted over to the Model Y style subframe casting in the near future because the Model 3 body line is bought, paid for, and producing profit. They won't switch Model 3 production methods in Fremont until it is profitable to do so. Elon said likely several years. BTW, MiC Model 3 won't switch right away either.

Model S/X are lower volume models which could easily use the two smaller casting machines which produced the initial run of Model Y 2-piece rear subframes beginning 2020Q1. Those casting machines are now idle. I guarantee Tesla finds some useful purpose for them.

Cheers!

Do we know the 1/2 cast machines for the Model Y are idle? Would it not make sense to be using those to crank out Model Y's in addition to the full cast pieces? It's not like Tesla has a demand problem on the Y.

 

[thx1139]

I'm bringing the below video from Sandy Munroe to make a point. There has been a lot of questioning here about if Tesla Fremont is using gigacasting for models beyond the Model Y. IMO this video makes a solid argument that they are ONLY using casting for the Y. They do not appear to have back-ported it over to the Model 3.

Why would they do this? I suspect there are 2 main reasons:
1) They simply don't have enough casting machines to move the 3 over to a casting design. Fremont is pretty tight on space and those machines take up a good bit of room outdoors.
2) Moving over to a cast would mean that they then have to support two different repair pathways for the 3 with components involved in that area. This makes it more difficult (but not impossible) to keep cars moving through their repair network at a reasonable pace.

Some here have argued that Tesla should simply change the dies from one car to another (3, Y, S, and X) on the gigapress and make some production runs for each. If that were practical, it would have already been done, but most likely that kind of swap involves significant downtime and then a "validation run" of the product coming out from the presses. When you have a demand problem, you don't want downtime like this, so you just keep cars like the 3, S, and X going on "what we know works".

Given the above, I highly doubt that any refreshed Model S/X will have casting employed. Not as long as it is still coming out of Fremont.

During the recent drone flyover there was some empty lots shown that looked like some clearing work was being done. Do we know if that is Tesla property or someone elses? Otherwise believe Model 3 will stay the way it is until Model Y being produced in Austin and the Gigapress's in Fremont then get switched over to Model 3.

 

[mongo]

I'm bringing the below video from Sandy Munroe to make a point. There has been a lot of questioning here about if Tesla Fremont is using gigacasting for models beyond the Model Y. IMO this video makes a solid argument that they are ONLY using casting for the Y. They do not appear to have back-ported it over to the Model 3.

Why would they do this? I suspect there are 2 main reasons:
1) They simply don't have enough casting machines to move the 3 over to a casting design. Fremont is pretty tight on space and those machines take up a good bit of room outdoors.
2) Moving over to a cast would mean that they then have to support two different repair pathways for the 3 with components involved in that area. This makes it more difficult (but not impossible) to keep cars moving through their repair network at a reasonable pace.

Some here have argued that Tesla should simply change the dies from one car to another (3, Y, S, and X) on the gigapress and make some production runs for each. If that were practical, it would have already been done, but most likely that kind of swap involves significant downtime and then a "validation run" of the product coming out from the presses. When you have a demand problem, you don't want downtime like this, so you just keep cars like the 3, S, and X going on "what we know works".

Given the above, I highly doubt that any refreshed Model S/X will have casting employed. Not as long as it is still coming out of Fremont.

The 3 is still like it is in Fremont because the line already works:
The Redesign Of The Tesla Model Y Body Was Inspired By A Toy Car

Musk said that it was likely the tech would make its way into the Model 3 as well. “It’s probably something we would do, but maybe in like 2 years.” He commented that the design of the Model 3 body was a pain in the ass, but it worked. “We have to deal with the pain in the asses that don’t work. Those are the higher priorities,” he said.

As I recall, Lathrop was called out as a casting plant...
How Do Tesla Lathrop And Model Y Relate? Cast Parts Are Made There

If the new design require significant structural mods, it may make sens to cast, but given they ran a plaid version a couple years back, that may not be needed. The line down time would also support a bent metal and body line reprogramming approach (system mostly works).

 

[bkp_duke]

During the recent drone flyover there was some empty lots shown that looked like some clearing work was being done. Do we know if that is Tesla property or someone elses? Otherwise believe Model 3 will stay the way it is until Model Y being produced in Austin and the Gigapress's in Fremont then get switched over to Model 3.

I believe someone said it was not Tesla's property, and that apartments or some residential buildings were planned there.

 

[Nocturnal]

I can't be the only one that thinks the Cybertruck would be an excellent vehicle for a huge variety of federal government purposes right? I'm thinking it would also be an easier sell to the short sighted taxpayers as it's not a "rich person's sedan, but rather a metal truck".

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon answered this issue directly last year (3rd Row Podcast?). Model 3 will not be converted over to the Model Y style subframe casting in the near future because the Model 3 body line is bought, paid for, and producing profit. They won't switch Model 3 production methods in Fremont until it is profitable to do so. Elon said likely several years. BTW, MiC Model 3 won't switch right away either.

Model S/X are lower volume models which could easily use the two smaller casting machines which produced the initial run of Model Y 2-piece rear subframes beginning 2020Q1. Those casting machines are now idle. I guarantee Tesla finds some useful purpose for them.

Cheers!

We sometimes get caught thinking the way legacy carmakers think. "Lets marginally improve Model 3 profitability for the 2022 model year."

No. Elon thinks of the Model 3 production line as a singular creation, and knows the Model Y as an output of a better line will likely eat some of the Model 3 demand because it's better. Then Model 3 processes will be reimagined from the bottom up into something also equaling a dramatic leap forward.

Constantly improving the product....which is the factory line itself. The individual models matter far less.

 

[mongo]

Do we know the 1/2 cast machines for the Model Y are idle? Would it not make sense to be using those to crank out Model Y's in addition to the full cast pieces? It's not like Tesla has a demand problem on the Y.

The half castings require post machining, the single piece does not. Huge efficiency jump.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do we know the 1/2 cast machines for the Model Y are idle? Would it not make sense to be using those to crank out Model Y's in addition to the full cast pieces? It's not like Tesla has a demand problem on the Y.

Lol, we don't know what Elon had for breakfast either. Occam's razor applies. Why have two production processes instead of just cutting over from one to the other when ready?

You may be overthinking this...

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

I can't be the only one that thinks the Cybertruck would be an excellent vehicle for a huge variety of federal government purposes right? I'm thinking it would also be an easier sell to the short sighted taxpayers as it's not a "rich person's sedan, but rather a metal truck".

Cybertruck would be a great police car TBH

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wow the capping is pretty effective so far even though there's pretty decent volume so far this morning. Color me surprised.

 

[bkp_duke]

Lol, we don't know what Elon had for breakfast either. Occam's razor applies. Why have two production processes instead of just cutting over from one to the other when ready?

You may be overthinking this...

Cheers!

No need to be a jerk in your reply.

It was a seriously thought-through process: If Tesla cannot make enough Model Y to meet demand, then even if you have some post-cast processing for the half casts, that's still TONS better than what you get from the Model 3 production process and can help meet demand.

Why would Elon leave two perfectly good casting machines, that have been dialed-in for proper Y production, idle? Repurposing them for S/X doesn't make sense because those cars are such low-volume by comparison.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I'm bringing the below video from Sandy Munroe to make a point. There has been a lot of questioning here about if Tesla Fremont is using gigacasting for models beyond the Model Y. IMO this video makes a solid argument that they are ONLY using casting for the Y. They do not appear to have back-ported it over to the Model 3.

Why would they do this? I suspect there are 2 main reasons:
1) They simply don't have enough casting machines to move the 3 over to a casting design. Fremont is pretty tight on space and those machines take up a good bit of room outdoors.
2) Moving over to a cast would mean that they then have to support two different repair pathways for the 3 with components involved in that area. This makes it more difficult (but not impossible) to keep cars moving through their repair network at a reasonable pace.

Some here have argued that Tesla should simply change the dies from one car to another (3, Y, S, and X) on the gigapress and make some production runs for each. If that were practical, it would have already been done, but most likely that kind of swap involves significant downtime and then a "validation run" of the product coming out from the presses. When you have a demand problem, you don't want downtime like this, so you just keep cars like the 3, S, and X going on "what we know works".

Given the above, I highly doubt that any refreshed Model S/X will have casting employed. Not as long as it is still coming out of Fremont.

I do not think that either of the reasons given are the reason why the 3 has not been modified to utilise castings in either Fremont or Shanghai (where they do not have the space restrictions you refer to in (1)). Tesla have stated several times that the rear casting on the Y is only a first step. Their stated aim is to use front and rear castings with the structural pack and that this will first be done at volume with the Berlin Y. I would guess that after Berlin the same approach will be used for Austin model Y before Tesla start to retrofit. It would probably make sense to retrofit Shanghai and Fremont Model Y lines before moving to the model 3 lines, because as you say, keep going on "what we know works".