Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

Citadel is a huge MM. If they go belly up, the ripples will be enormous and hard to quantify.

Not the same Citadel. The market maker and the hedge fund are two different Citadels.

 

[adiggs]

In case there were any questions about S&P's bias against Tesla:

Will Tesla Miss Out on Inclusion in the S&P 500 ESG Index? | ETF Trends

'Tesla even received a 28 out of 100 on the S&P environmental metrics, despite its near-perfect score on carbon emissions. It ranks poorly on transparency of its environmental reporting, along with climate strategy and environmental policy and management.'

I think that the better interpretation is that the ESG metrics being used (which I assume are not something S&P came up with - something developed and sponsored externally) are designed with some outcomes being optimized, and others not scoring well or at all.

Tesla is optimizing around a particular outcome that I also support.

The lack of a proper metric though is also what keeps me personally from ESG investing. It emphasizes thing I am indifferent to for investments. It ignores things that I value. And yields answers like this.

I'm pretty sure my current employer scores very highly on the ESG index, and I put Tesla head and shoulders above my employer. I think that most would agree that my employer is good at ESG, and that most here would agree that Tesla is more of what they are thinking about, than my current employer.

(I am intentionally keeping my employer out of this - my comments here are my own and have nothing to do with them. I will tell you that I don't work in anything even vaguely resembling the oil and gas industry, but that's not a surprise I think )

 

[EVWatcher]

Toyota tops VW to become world's No. 1 vehicle seller in 2020

9.53M units to 9.31M units.

Anyone want to make bets when tesla beats that? 5 years?
2021 0.92 Mil
2022 1.71 mil
2023 3.16 mill
2024 5.36 mil
2025 9.14 mil

 

[Buckminster]

New threads for anyone not too engrossed in the GME thread:
Tesla Gaming
Which MS/MX refresh features will be applied to M3/MY?
ARK Big Ideas discussion

 

[adiggs]

Interesting Reddit read:

30 Seconds From Triggering Market Nuclear Bomb
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreet..._seconds_from_triggering_market_nuclear_bomb/

Following the link in the link, the scene from Snowpiercer, is highly apropos.

I haven't seen the movie before, but it's a brief 3 minute clip that captures that blog very nicely.

yes - interesting.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not the same Citadel. The market maker and the hedge fund are two different Citadels.

As a subsidiary I thought there might be some exposure for the market maker arm if the hedge fund went under - but I’m glad to be wrong!

 

[Criscmt]

Extrapolating Q4: 720k
Shanghai Y same ramp as Shanghai 3: 150k

That means you only need another 130k from Berlin, Austin, faster Shanghai Y ramp, potential increase in demand for new S & X, Semi, further Shanghai 3 ramp, and/or further Fremont Y ramp to get 100% growth in 2021.

Berlin looks like it'll start production in the first half, perhaps also some early deliveries.

And there were reports/rumors that Shanghai might produce a total of 550k this year.

Combine all this, and I'll take the over on 100% growth this year. The main risks are battery and semiconductor shortages imo.

@FrankSG
Besides battery and semiconductor shortages, do you see scaling delivery logistics also as a significant risk?

 

[Causalien]

Following the link in the link, the scene from Snowpiercer, is highly apropos.

I haven't seen the movie before, but it's a brief 3 minute clip that captures that blog very nicely.

yes - interesting.

Snow piercer is like a micro biosphere of our society. The bored entertainment seeking rich using the middle class to surpress the lowet class.

 

[FS_FRA]

Sorry guys, I've been offline for a while - did I miss anything important re TSLA?

 

[wombat9]

Some news from Switzerland's Federal statistic office

"Decline of almost a quarter in new passenger car registrations in 2020

Neuchâtel, 29.01.2021 - In 2020, 336 841 motor vehicles were newly registered in Switzerland, i.e. the lowest level for 24 years and a decrease of 17.8% compared with 2019. New registrations of passenger cars fell by as much as 23.7%. Despite this record drop, the number of hybrid (+78.9%) and electric cars (+49.8%) that were newly registered rose again. The fall in new registrations due to COVID-19 did not prevent the overall vehicle stock from growing, according to the road vehicle statistics published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO)."

Decline of almost a quarter in new passenger car registrations in 2020

 

[Buckminster]

OT
If Chamath or Elon or someone famous with a grain of integrity were to setup a brokerage;
could they charge a transparent up front membership fee (limited to less than $1m total trades per annum) and then offer a zero bid-ask spread? You buy and sell at the market price so that retail investors can day trade small amounts profitably.

 

[NicoV]

Anyone want to make bets when tesla beats that? 5 years?
2021 0.92 Mil
2022 1.71 mil
2023 3.16 mill
2024 5.36 mil
2025 9.14 mil

If Tesla sells 9M cars, it will be because VW/Toyota sell much less, so the crossover (where Tesla becomes the largest car manufacturer) will come about a year earlier. And on a run-rate basis, almost another year earlier.

 

[FrankSG]

@FrankSG
Besides battery and semiconductor shortages, do you see scaling delivery logistics also as a significant risk?

I think they most likely learned their lesson with the M3. Besides, Shanghai 3 ramp went fine in terms of logistics. And I don't think any ramp will be as taxing on Tesla's logistics infrastructure in terms of percentage increase as the M3 was.

If there are major logistics issues, that'd be a pretty big screw up on Tesla's part imo. Unless we're talking about a new country (India or some SEA countries) in the future that experience logistics issues due to local infrastructure.

 

[heltok]

Elon+Bitcoin=Tesla to start accepting payment in bitcoins?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So what is everyone's take on the sell off in the last 24 hours? Premarket down again this morning. What gives?

Dan

 

[MC3OZ]

So what is everyone's take on the sell off in the last 24 hours? Premarket down again this morning. What gives?

Dan

IMO

• Earnings report was good.
• Refreshed Model S/X are great.
• Great progess with the battery ramp at Kato Rd.

So nothing logical, specifically related to Tesla, explains the drop.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So what is everyone's take on the sell off in the last 24 hours? Premarket down again this morning. What gives?

Dan

There's some fear in the market about the systemic risks of the GME mess.

TSLA is recovering a bit in pre-market though, from down at 817 a few hours ago to down at 828 now.

 

[Buddyroe]

IMO

• Earnings report was good.
• Refreshed Model S/X are great.
• Great progess with the battery ramp at Kato Rd.

So nothing logical, specifically related to Tesla, explains the drop.

IMO

• Earnings report was good.
• Refreshed Model S/X are great.
• Great progess with the battery ramp at Kato Rd.

So nothing logical, specifically related to Tesla, explains the drop.

Not eveyone thought the report was altogether good. Earnings missed by quite a bit and gross margins on vehicles excluding credits was 21%. Additionally, unit growth yoy fell to 36% compared to 50% in 2019 and 138% in 2018. Granted, the pandemic had a great effect on that. But at the same time, Tesla released the Y in 2020 so expectations were high.

So while the report was mostly positive, it wasn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination, and for sure didn't meet what many here were predicting. The biggest letdown is that GAAP profit still didn't come in higher than the ZEV credits. So the shorts are clinging to that for another quarter. I'll be glad when that ammunition is removed.

 

[cricketman]

Not eveyone thought the report was altogether good. Earnings missed by quite a bit and gross margins on vehicles excluding credits was 21%. Additionally, unit growth yoy fell to 36% compared to 50% in 2019 and 138% in 2018. Granted, the pandemic had a great effect on that. But at the same time, Tesla released the Y in 2020 so expectations were high.

Yes earnings were much lower than expected, I was expecting $1bn-$1.5bn. Although with hindsight, lower profit makes sense given the heavy investment in the new factories and new battery tech, low S and X sales before refresh and much lower asking price per car

But, the short, mid and long term future for Tesla are better now than they have ever been. Whether it is enough to justify an $800bn market cap right now is another question. If we have bad macros and not so good earnings in Q1 (likely) then TSLA could go down to the 600s, but its just as likely that we could see the 1,000s if market enthusiasm continues

Whatever happens. Tesla is doing great and any investment made now is very likely to pay off later

 

[Buckminster]

Supporting the WSB cause has done wonders for Elon's twitter account. I think he is up half a million followers in 48 hours.

Up another 400k in 15 hours!

These people are aligned with Tesla, over 18, have money in their pockets and could have a lot more soon. How many will be buying a Tesla in the next 2 years?