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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
Not sure how many here know Pierre Ferragu. He's one of the top stock analysts out there. He was on Rob's podcast once and is bullish on TSLA.

If you don't know who @FrankSG is, shame on you.

Both of them feel Tesla's growth in 2021 will be closer to 100% than 50% (which is obvious IMO). Frank goes a step further and says if the over/under is 100%, he'll take the over. I'm with him. In fact, I think there is a decent chance 2021 & 2022 both show ~100% growth.

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1354934332360593419

Extrapolating Q4: 720k
Shanghai Y same ramp as Shanghai 3: 150k

That means you only need another 130k from Berlin, Austin, faster Shanghai Y ramp, potential increase in demand for new S & X, Semi, further Shanghai 3 ramp, and/or further Fremont Y ramp to get 100% growth in 2021.

Berlin looks like it'll start production in the first half, perhaps also some early deliveries.

And there were reports/rumors that Shanghai might produce a total of 550k this year.

Combine all this, and I'll take the over on 100% growth this year. The main risks are battery and semiconductor shortages imo.
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,454
13,607
QLD Australia
I don't think Giga Texas is that far behind. (Especially if you count that Giga Berlin doesn't even have permits yet.) For example they are already installing an IDRA casting machine in Giga Texas, but not in Giga Berlin. (But Giga Berlin has started installing the paint shop where Giga Texas is still build the building shell for the paint shop.)

Giga Texas is also working longer hours and more days per week; so they will catch up and possibly pass Giga Berlin. (For example they have started on the 4680 plant where Giga Berlin has not.) Of course Elon said they are currently in the process of preparing the equipment supply list to order the machine necessary for 4680 production, so they may get the equipment at about the same time. (Depending on where it is sourced from and how quickly the machines can be built and shipped.)

My hunch is Austin will definitely catch up, but Berlin may start vehicle production a month or 2 earlier, perhaps using cells from Fremont.

At Austin ,Tesla has a good idea how long vehicle production and cell production will take to ramp.
These sensible option is to time battery production to be ready around the start of vehicle production.
As you state, they know what machinery they need to order, and when it needs to be ordered.
Kato Rd is not far away, and experienced staff can pop over to Austin to help out if needed.

There is also some chance Panasonic or LG can make some 4680 cells.

The big picture is cell production will be ramped in Berlin and Austin some time in 2021/2022. Tesla is targeting a run rate of 200 GWh per year by the end of 2022. If they hit that target, it is smooth sailing form there, a bit of choppy water in 2021 is no big deal.

Whatever happens, all 4 quarters is 2021 should be profitable, while ramping new factories and cell production.
 

UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Supporting Member
Apr 17, 2017
2,121
12,105
Earth
So basically this wide spread short raid may cause a market crash worst than Lehman?
The actual mechanics of the market's functions, including market making, clearing houses, broker-dealers, and the like are extremely opaque and complex. There are also shadow markets, like the infamous dark pools which connect to the public markets but do not openly share information. I don't think anyone has ever actually tested a doomsday scenario where there are mathematically not enough shares to buy, because supposedly the SEC enforces market regulations and there's no way you can short sell a stock more than 100% of the float. So where it really starts is with the toothless regulatory capture market non-regulator called the SEC who allowed the shares of a company's stock to be sold short to 138% of the float. This is so unbelievably stupid that it's actually hard to fathom. Since the SEC only enforces important things like Elon Musk's Twitter account, they allowed this potential market catastrophe to happen right under their noses.

The most important thing that needs to happen after the unwinding of this insanity is that the SEC needs to be completely disbanded and reformed as a new government agency that actually regulates the market and enforces proper market discipline and mechanics. The next most important thing that needs to happen is the primary participants who caused this disaster are thrown in prison and the key tossed in the trash. Melvin Capital, Citadel Securities, they all must face prosecution or who knows what the public will do. If they actually get away with this, there WILL be hell to pay because the memories of 2008 where NO ONE was prosecuted for crashing the world economy are still fresh and bitter.
 

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,440
37,690
Houston/Galveston
https://twitter.com/model3owners/status/1355011635941937152?s=21
upload_2021-1-28_22-43-23.png
 

EVWatcher

Member
Jan 18, 2021
335
2,067
Earth
So given Tesla has basically built an entertainment system that matches the playstion 5 in specs and a cloud gaming platform anyone think they might start selling home consoles? I mean it sounds like they've built all the pieces already, all they need is a plastic shell to throw on what is going in the car so you can put it on their shelf.

I would bring the costs down for what goes in a vehicle by producing them components at a greater scale and increase the attractiveness of the robotaxis.

"Oh ive been playing this game on the tesla gamestation and now I have a 45 minute drive in a robo taxi. What! I can continue my saved game from my home console for the drive? Thats awesome. Im never getting in a waymo"
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
4,444
33,472
US
So given Tesla has basically built an entertainment system that matches the playstion 5 in specs and a cloud gaming platform anyone think they might start selling home consoles? I mean it sounds like they've built all the pieces already, all they need is a plastic shell to throw on what is going in the car so you can put it on their shelf.
No because they are using amd hardware, which is exactly what's in the game consoles. Also Tesla already sells one, call the model S/x. Game consoles are low margin trash where the developers make their money back on the back of game developers and app store. There's a reason a 500 dollar xbox has the power of a 800 dollar pc. Microsoft is losing money on every console they sell.
 

bigsmooth125

Member
Oct 16, 2012
164
296
United States
Am Gen-X. Can confirm love of yoke and if Elon adds cycling red horizontal light to front of car nose and voice-enabled smartwatch app, I will not be able to resist placing an order.

To those who are criticizing others who have expressed concerns and questions about the new steering yoke because they haven't had a chance to test it, shouldn't you also be criticizing those who say they love the steering yoke for the same reason?
 

StarFoxisDown!

Active Member
Jan 23, 2019
3,068
26,251
Seattle
You are kinda making my point for me. Everyone keeps talking about the tesla app store. Why would you buy witcher 3 to only play in your car?

I'm actually kinda confused on what you're suggesting and I work in the videogame/PC industry. The gaming "rig" in the new Model S/X is just a PC. All developers have to do is port their games over to the hardware config on the Tesla's.
 

EVWatcher

Member
Jan 18, 2021
335
2,067
Earth
I'm actually kinda confused on what you're suggesting and I work in the videogame/PC industry. The gaming "rig" in the new Model S/X is just a PC. All developers have to do is port their games over to the hardware config on the Tesla's.

That tesla's app store will be gaming heavy and they might also sell a companion rig for playing in your house. Maybe it will be like google stadia and you can play games in your home using your cars computer.

I'm saying there's long been talk about a tesla app store but little talk about what kind of apps you would buy for use exclusively in your car. Tesla's app store may be more like steam/playstation store/nintendo shop than the apple app store.

edit: the home rig could have a large hard drive maybe to hold multiple games so if you have 2 teslas in the family either one could be used over local wifi to run the game you are playing.

The responses that seem to contradict what I feel is obvious makes me feel like I'm missing something key about why this wouldn't be huge news and get people really excited. A angle on a large potential revenue stream. You don't need to buy a new xbox/playstation/nintendo every 7 years. Just get a new car and have the added bonus of a console upgrade.
 
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Reactions: UkNorthampton

PeterJA

Active Member
Sep 26, 2013
1,046
10,606
San Diego
GM pledges to end tailpipe emissions, become carbon neutral by 2040

Where it is not possible to remove emissions in its products and operations in the next 20 years, the automaker said it will compensate by using carbon credits, or a permit that allows GM to emit a certain amount of emissions.

GM plans to introduce 30 new electric vehicles by 2025, and spend $27 billion on electric and autonomous technologies to get there — even as it runs many North American assembly plants hard, churning out gas-powered pickups and SUVs to fatten its top and bottom lines.

GM also is building up its hydrogen fuel cell technology and recently formed a partnership with trucking manufacturer Navistar Inc. to build trucks with its hydrogen fuel cells. “

Just shoot me.

No need to shoot yourself. GM will be carbon-neutral by 2040 because they will be out of business, says my crystal ball. Or maybe by 2035. Here is my reasoning (partly from The Innovator's Dilemma):

1) GM is paying lip service to EVs by promising many new models (some hybrids?), but where will they get the battery cells to deliver these models in volume? More specifically, where will they get them at costs that compete with Tesla? Answer: Nowhere. Tesla is vertically integrated and too far ahead.

2) So GM will sell their EVs in tiny numbers (like Chevy Bolt) because Tesla EVs are better for the same price. Or else GM will have to sell their EVs at a loss (like Chevy Bolt) to compete with Tesla.

3) If GM sells loss-making EVs in volume, they will destroy their ICE sales that they hope will pay for the losses... because an electric SUV or pickup as good as Tesla's is better than an ICE version. Model Y and Cybertruck will do to GM's cash cows what Model S did to Cadillac ELR and what Model 3 did to Chevy Bolt.

4) GM hopes that self-driving tech from Cruise will defend them from Tesla Network. But where will Cruise get billions of miles of driving data like Tesla? Where will they get a Dojo? GM's money can't buy those in time, no matter how many billion dollars are promised. Again, Tesla is too far ahead.

5) GM's hydrogen plan is either propaganda or indicates they are clueless.

In short, GM is unprepared for the speed and impact of Tesla innovation, especially FSD and Tesla Network. No automajor is prepared for those.

Speaking of... crystal ball says Ford will be carbon-neutral (gone) by 2035 or 2030.
 

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