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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable


Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
Portland, OR
In case there were any questions about S&P's bias against Tesla:

Will Tesla Miss Out on Inclusion in the S&P 500 ESG Index? | ETF Trends

'Tesla even received a 28 out of 100 on the S&P environmental metrics, despite its near-perfect score on carbon emissions. It ranks poorly on transparency of its environmental reporting, along with climate strategy and environmental policy and management.'

I think that the better interpretation is that the ESG metrics being used (which I assume are not something S&P came up with - something developed and sponsored externally) are designed with some outcomes being optimized, and others not scoring well or at all.

Tesla is optimizing around a particular outcome that I also support.

The lack of a proper metric though is also what keeps me personally from ESG investing. It emphasizes thing I am indifferent to for investments. It ignores things that I value. And yields answers like this.

I'm pretty sure my current employer scores very highly on the ESG index, and I put Tesla head and shoulders above my employer. I think that most would agree that my employer is good at ESG, and that most here would agree that Tesla is more of what they are thinking about, than my current employer.

(I am intentionally keeping my employer out of this - my comments here are my own and have nothing to do with them. I will tell you that I don't work in anything even vaguely resembling the oil and gas industry, but that's not a surprise I think :D)


Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
Portland, OR


Feb 18, 2020
San Francisco
Extrapolating Q4: 720k
Shanghai Y same ramp as Shanghai 3: 150k

That means you only need another 130k from Berlin, Austin, faster Shanghai Y ramp, potential increase in demand for new S & X, Semi, further Shanghai 3 ramp, and/or further Fremont Y ramp to get 100% growth in 2021.

Berlin looks like it'll start production in the first half, perhaps also some early deliveries.

And there were reports/rumors that Shanghai might produce a total of 550k this year.

Combine all this, and I'll take the over on 100% growth this year. The main risks are battery and semiconductor shortages imo.

Besides battery and semiconductor shortages, do you see scaling delivery logistics also as a significant risk?


Prime 8 ball Oracle
Nov 19, 2012
Pothead's Republic of Canukstan (PRC)
Following the link in the link, the scene from Snowpiercer, is highly apropos.

I haven't seen the movie before, but it's a brief 3 minute clip that captures that blog very nicely.

yes - interesting.

Snow piercer is like a micro biosphere of our society. The bored entertainment seeking rich using the middle class to surpress the lowet class.


Jan 13, 2019
Some news from Switzerland's Federal statistic office

"Decline of almost a quarter in new passenger car registrations in 2020

Neuchâtel, 29.01.2021 - In 2020, 336 841 motor vehicles were newly registered in Switzerland, i.e. the lowest level for 24 years and a decrease of 17.8% compared with 2019. New registrations of passenger cars fell by as much as 23.7%. Despite this record drop, the number of hybrid (+78.9%) and electric cars (+49.8%) that were newly registered rose again. The fall in new registrations due to COVID-19 did not prevent the overall vehicle stock from growing, according to the road vehicle statistics published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO)."

Decline of almost a quarter in new passenger car registrations in 2020


Active Member
Aug 29, 2018
If Chamath or Elon or someone famous with a grain of integrity were to setup a brokerage;
could they charge a transparent up front membership fee (limited to less than $1m total trades per annum) and then offer a zero bid-ask spread? You buy and sell at the market price so that retail investors can day trade small amounts profitably.


Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jan 10, 2016
Zulte, Belgium
Anyone want to make bets when tesla beats that? 5 years?
2021 0.92 Mil
2022 1.71 mil
2023 3.16 mill
2024 5.36 mil
2025 9.14 mil
If Tesla sells 9M cars, it will be because VW/Toyota sell much less, so the crossover (where Tesla becomes the largest car manufacturer) will come about a year earlier. And on a run-rate basis, almost another year earlier.


Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
Besides battery and semiconductor shortages, do you see scaling delivery logistics also as a significant risk?

I think they most likely learned their lesson with the M3. Besides, Shanghai 3 ramp went fine in terms of logistics. And I don't think any ramp will be as taxing on Tesla's logistics infrastructure in terms of percentage increase as the M3 was.

If there are major logistics issues, that'd be a pretty big screw up on Tesla's part imo. Unless we're talking about a new country (India or some SEA countries) in the future that experience logistics issues due to local infrastructure.


Active Member
Aug 12, 2014

Elon+Bitcoin=Tesla to start accepting payment in bitcoins?

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