Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Loving that pre-market action. Thanks Piper!

 

[Tslynk67]

Per my memory, Tesla typically does do that. Esp in terms of FSD pricing.
Concider the new S/X as completely different products. I doubt Amazon is so kind as to give you the old gen price on new tech when the previous version sells out (though if it were sold out, Amazon would not have accepted the order anyway).

Indeed, maybe Tesla should have closed the order page and fulfilled those outstanding

 

[kbM3]

https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1356053040407736320?s=21

View attachment 632808

I believe Piper Sandler made the following error on Supercharger revenue (specifically on page 60):

They model it as 1.5% of Automotive Revenue, but I believe that’s flawed because they based it on 2020.

That has the following two problems:

1. ASP declines over time likely quicker than Supercharger Revenue, so supercharger revenue becomes a larger piece of the automotive revenue
2. A much larger problem is that 2020 had automotive sales of 500k / fleet size of 1.4K. So new sales account for 35% of the entire fleet. In a steady state situation as Alex begins to predict post 2030, new sales would only comprise 5% of the fleet. In such a situation, recurring fleet revenue would become 7X more important than 2020 would indicate.

Or another way to view it:
2030 ASP = $40k.
Supercharger revenue / vehicle sold in 2030 = 20 year lifetime * $300 / year = $6k (roughly present (2030) value of $5k). 12.5% of automotive revenue.

And obviously in a robo-taxi situation Supercharging would probably be more common.

I would guess this flaw would also apply to infotainment. But I’m assuming that since they modeled out FSD in such detail, it doesn’t occur there.

‘Am I correct?

 

[lafrisbee]

I've always maintained that Tesla should follow Amazon's policy, which is to honour the price paid at order time or lower it if the price reduces prior to dispatch.

I cannot imagine there were *that* many S&X on order, the financial impact would not be great, the customer satisfaction and good-will, priceless.

When a product is the same then yes....when it becomes a different product then no. The same name is irrelevant.

Tesla hads to make a decision. And the lack of openness was a conscious one.
The choices were
1) keep the refresh quiet and have it be a "Big" news event. And just change the price to reflect the increase in value and performance.
2) let all those with orders for the vehicles know beforehand that they can buy the "old" model at the "old" price, or buy the new model at the new price.

It seems like Tesla made the right decision. I don't think that 5% of the order holders would have said, "No, gimme the old model at the old price."

 

[Causalien]

Loving that pre-market action. Thanks Piper!

Damn it. I wanted more of those Pelosi trade.

 

[traxila]

Happy February everyone!

Have to admit, I am happy to see that the markets have decided the world should not be destroyed because of a short squeeze in some stock somewhere. Must be getting officially old....

Also loving the TSLA action!

850 anyone?

 

[GrandEnigma]

Think I will frame this headline as a great way to commemorate 2021 so far.

 

[lafrisbee]

and before the market opens..
I was on reddit and there was a Tesla Thread titled: "Used Tesla for My Wife."
I posted that he would have to offer more than just his wife.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...

As pointed out at a recent FCA quarterly call by our friend Adam Jonas Stellantis (FCA +PSA) is going to pay for Giga Berlin with purchases of regulatory credits from Tesla.

I’ll say it again. I just love this so much.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
As pointed out at a recent FCA quarterly call by our friend Adam Jonas Stellantis (FCA +PSA) is going to pay for Giga Berlin with purchases of regulatory credits from Tesla.

Another thought on this. This is nearly the most righteous use of emissions penalties one could think of. Instead of having fines disappear into the EU general fund, their (partial) transfer to Tesla ensures they serve the purpose for which they were intended.

This is even more true because of Tesla's dedication to growth (the money won’t just sit in an Apple-ish hoard).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Direction looks good for the open. (Simple chart anyway.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Direction looks good for the open. (Simple chart anyway.)

And now TD won't update. Don't take my simple chart away!

 

[phantasms]

And now TD won't update. Don't take my simple chart away!

TD is a disaster today. I clicked to buy the dip and sell the high. I had no idea when or if anything would execute. After 6 minutes eventually I heard the chimes and my P&L was way up.

 

[reardencode]

Nice gap fill in the hourly this morning, may hold as today's bottom.

 

[Todd Burch]

These MMDs have me feelin' like it's 2018 all over again. Jeez shorts, give it up. You lost. Go home.

 

[SOULPEDL]

MMD or nervous crowd?

 

[Nocturnal]

Dip the price all you want. Just forces me to buy more...jerks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What's on the horizon for Tesla? Seems all the big known events have past, next news Q1 P&D report? FSR Beta expansion could happen but who knows when. I point this out bc if I were shorting TSLA, now might be the time on this news drought. At least it seemed to trade that way in the past (although you know what they say about past trading vs future).

 

[phantasms]

What's on the horizon for Tesla? Seems all the big known events have past, next news Q1 P&D report? FSR Beta expansion could happen but who knows when. I point this out bc if I were shorting TSLA, now might be the time on this news drought. At least it seemed to trade that way in the past (although you know what they say about past trading vs future).

Agreed. Maybe there's Cybertruck update and FSD subscription around the corner. I expect 2021 to be the year of FSD and 2022 to be the year of "now watch what we can do when we have enough batteries".

I for one will continue to be aggressively buying dips. But personally I wouldn't go on margin now.

 

[StealthP3D]

It is light entertainment, the chance of him saying something very significant is very low.

EDIT: I had no idea what to expect ... so far it is average at best

I don't know about that. I feel like I can extract a lot of 'color' from light banter. My takeaway after the first 20 minutes, is that Elon is in prime form, relaxed, comfortable and happy with his current situation. As an investor, that's important to me. As someone who likes Elon and appreciates his contributions to humanity, that's priceless.