Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

It's the Batteries, Stupid.
Seriously. It is the batteries.
Most of the tech out there to use renewable energy do not have a constant source (geothermal being the easiest to envision outlier).
So it is ALL about where can energy come from when the Sun ain't shining, the wind ain't blowing, the tides ain't turning.
One Dude is locked into the one part of technology that isn't being developed anywhere near the level it needs to be....

I think Elon has the electric car market getting about half of his mental energy compared to what it once had... Energy capture and storage are the real needs of the World.
It IS the batteries.

 

[kengchang]

OT:
This Q1 there won’t be any logistics issue.

Chinese New Year will enable them to sell every GF3 car they make and there would be no car to spare to send to Europe.

Europe would be staved again with only cars from Fremont.

Wrong, there are two ships that have left Shanghai

 

[StealthP3D]

Perhaps we should give the author the message
https://twitter.com/chrisidore?s=21

If I were a Tweeter I would give him a lesson in logic 101:

1) Regulatory credits come from selling EV's.
2) EV's are cars.
3) Tesla's profits come from selling cars.

 

[Cosmacelf]

If I were a Tweeter I would give him a lesson in logic 101:

1) Regulatory credits come from selling EV's.
2) EV's are cars.
3) Tesla's profits come from selling cars.

Not to mention that hyper growth companies routinely plow profits back into the company to grab market share. Tesla could be profitable today without reg credits if they increased car prices by $2K. Of course, that would mean fewer sales, slower growth. But with $20B in the bank, it would be stupid for Tesla to do that. So maximum growth it is, with marginal profits. When Tesla is the number #1 automaker in the world, then they’ll maximize for profit and pay fat dividends.

Is anyone crying over Amazon’s run of 14 years of losses? Not now they aren’t.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Here is a link to the full 104 page document from Piper Sandler. Pardon the poor formatting. I’m on mobile.

https://piper2.bluematrix.com/sells...f&co=Piper&[email protected]&source=mail

Is this the first analyst that has included FSD and Energy profits in their predictions?

 

[Boomer19]

The most relevant rule I found at a glance was one prohibiting anything that can snag clothing or jewelery- which an open wheel could potentially do that a round wheel does not.

There's also some about methods of both manually and automatically (via wheel action) actuating or turning off turn signals and other controls.

Honestly the issue seems to be there's a LOT of relevant rules but they're kind of all over hundreds of pages of regulations in random spots... (like the rules relevant to steering wheels show up in pieces under a bunch of OTHER places instead of just a single "here's all the rules for a wheel" section).

Seems the most likely reason the NHTSA was talking about the fact they said they'd need to reach out to Tesla and get more info before saying more- because with tesla both using a different shape, and also consolidating a lot of different controls, there's a number of different rules that might be relevant to check.


The fact there's pics on tesla.com (even if not easily found) showing a round wheel suggests Tesla has a plan if they somehow run into a genuine regulatory issue.






The split was issued as a dividend.

Much debate ensued if this was a material thing or not.

There was a theory here, from Artful Dodger among others, that this fact is WHY it spiked the stock so much- shorts suddenly needing to deliver real shares as shorts are responsible for paying issued dividends.


AFAIK the folks supporting that theory believe it's still correct (and certainly the share price spike and significant decline in short interest in this period suggest they might have a point)

fyi
a split is in the dividend/distribution category of corporate actions. some are income and taxable and some are not. this wasn’t.

the effects of a split vary...as we found out the fun way (as others found out the hard way)

 

[Boomer19]

Amen! I'm not arguing about its positive effects, just trying to put to rest (as I did when the issue was current) conspiracy theories about the nature of the split being different or "special".

Moving on...

correct it was not legally or fundamentally different than another stock split.

the response and result, obviously different.

the way the ‘street’ manipulated tsla for years prior to the split is the difference here...not the fundamental aspects of the event itself.

 

[Boomer19]

Tesla Announces a Five-for-One Stock Split | Tesla Investor Relations

Globe Newswire
Aug 11, 2020

PALO ALTO, Calif., Aug. 11, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) announced today that the Board of Directors has approved and declared a five-for-one split of Tesla’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend​

stock split is a div/distribution event.

technically there are subcategories, some taxable some not.

the nomenclature doesn’t dictate the market response.

if they rigging it, you could call it whatever you want. the piper must be paid, you were damn right about that!!

 

[Boomer19]

You'll note that in Section 5(f)(ii) stock splits and stock dividends are treated exactly the same.

yes - nice pull

doesn’t matter what you call it legally.

in this case the resulting action proved that tsla was ‘messed’ with prior to the event.

in the end, that’s what matters in that battle.
we won stoically
they lost miserably

edit:i removed the ‘thee’ (no idea where that came from)
how hath thee shorted tsla and soiled thy pants upon a split!

 

[Kenypowa]

A $1,200 price target with 880k deliveries in 2021. None of which are Cybertrucks and only 70k delivered in 2022! Given the order backlog I expect Elon will want to ramp up a lot quicker than that. But it's an entirely new type of production line so there will be some bumps in the road.

Page 64 shows their estimate of 2030 revenue to be $600 billion and rises to $800B a few years later.

 

[pitabun]

Please! Please! This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let's not bicker and argue about who killed who.

 

[Mo City]

The Piper Sandler report is very long and detailed (82 pages + 22 pages of index). Those of us heavily invested should take the time to comb through it. Can't wait for Rob's podcast tomorrow night.

My 2 cents is Piper Sandler reinforces the clear fact Tesla's future hinges primarily on two things: (1) FSD and (2) scaling 4680 production ASAP.

Some random items:

Tesla is not prioritizing the Semi due to battery constraints. Therefore, they don't model it in their forecast.

They project auto sales revenue will peak in 2030 and then steadily decline indefinitely.

If their "thesis plays out, Tesla will eventually transform into a software company" during the 2030s and gross margins from "FSD software could eventually overwhelm other aspects of Tesla's P&L".

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon talking about California...

EDIT: Recapping how he got started...

 

[Mo City]

Elon talking about California...

So much is almost unlistenable.

I fully understand Elon can be difficult to keep corralled sometimes during interviews, but people who get these opportunities should do better than this. Way too much digression on nonsense.

 

[MC3OZ]

So much is almost unlistenable.

I fully understand Elon can be difficult to keep corralled sometimes during interviews, but people who get these opportunities should do better than this. Way too much digression on nonsense.

It is light entertainment, the chance of him saying something very significant is very low.

EDIT: I had no idea what to expect ... so far it is average at best

 

[Mo City]

It is light entertainment, the chance of him saying something very significant is very low.

I get that it can't be an interrogation and I also missed the early portion where relevant items may have been discussed.

Just saying, the part I've heard is mostly awful.

 

[Mr X]

Wow Elon interrogating Vlad was unexpected, cringey and awesome

 

[SpaceCash]

Wow Elon interrogating Vlad was unexpected, cringey and awesome

Vlad sounds shady AF.
And while he tries his hardest not to really say anything of substance, he does admit that Robinhood is beholden to a "consortium" of non-governmental interest groups.

RH is an absolute scam and this has been obvious for at least a year now.

 

[Buckminster]

Clubhouse - Neuralink have a monkey with a mohawk playing video games.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Update.

This NY Times Auto reporter must get paid somehow by GM right?
I mean that is the only thing that makes sense.

View attachment 632350

Two days later, those Tweets are still stuck on 10 & 4 likes respectively...

I made the mistake of looking through this guy's Twitter feed, he's a Short-seller apologist, re-tweeting garbage from $TSLAQ

An idiot.