Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Spacep0d]

FTFY

It's important to never forget the real competition is comprised almost entirely of outdated internal combustion vehicles. EV's have so many inherent advantages and a built-in cost advantage that are increasing every year such that only EV makers will win and the total market is large enough that there will almost certainly be a number of winners that are not named Tesla. The market will pick the winners. These EV producers will primarily compete with ICE as well. I see no evidence they will compete with Tesla to any significant degree. But they don't have to be competitive with Tesla to succeed. Tesla cannot make enough cars or expand their product line fast enough to fill all demand. The other "winners" will only be winners because the competition is so handicapped with outdated and inefficient internal combustion technology.

Even though these truths have been obvious to any one paying attention over the last several years the market is, just now, starting to recognize that these truths are undeniable. That's not to say Tesla is incapable of making huge missteps that could result in a different outcome, but I just don't see any evidence that has much chance of happening. This is what people with real money on the line have been starting to realize.

My use of the term 'competition' was in the EV space, and they're more present and future participants than real 'competition' right now. This is in part why we investors have so much confidence in TSLA. Tesla has no EV competition (really) and ICE is a finite interim solution that will be legislated out of the market if the public doesn't abandon it first. All the while, Tesla will keep doing what it does best.

 

[thx1139]

What he actually said is quoted verbatim below...He did not say planning at all, he did say "if we get lucky" about delivering anything this year though.

Will be interesting to see if he is sand bagging at all.

 

[mejojo]

I was at the car wash yesterday (getting some Tesla love). A guy from a Ford dealership started talking up Mach-E and how it was going to blow away the Model 3. I asked if they were available yet. He said “soon”, but by "special order" only.

Did he mention how they are going to overcome the "50% more than a model 3" issue?

 

[mickificki]

Adam Jonas raises tsla price target to $880 from $810. See link for details.

https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1356355124487217162?s=21

 

[EVMeister]

Is that $880 or $10 - $8800?

 

[AudubonB]

Uh..

You're saying that if I put the following in every post I can never be OT?

The sigh you make when reading my posts is what Tesla should use for the pedestrian-alert.

.

Uhh.....

Bye bye, Johnny????

 

[Johan]

Adam Jonas probably worked very hard to come up with his price target formula (which is basically whatever TSLA's 30 day moving averge is + a hundred bucks).

That said would love to read the content of the whole report if someone has access.

Edit: found the following tidbits on Twitter:

"We believe Tesla can leverage its cost leadership in EVs to aggressively expand its user base, over time generating a higher % of revenue from recurring/high-margin services revenue."

(This is IMO a good bit of analysis - and basically this was said during the ER conference call)

Bull Case: $1,272
Base Case: $880
Bear Case: $450

This is a good summary:

 

[petit_bateau]

One of the best things that will happen when Berlin is chugging away is that this sort of nonsense will go away. FUD producers love to use Tesla managing supply in 3 regions with 2 factories as way to created nonsense.

1. It will also reduce CoGs because there will be less wasteful outbound logistics;
2. It will also reduce SGA because the SGA system can be optimised for smoother deliveries;
3. It will also reduce inventories (i.e. fewer in avge transit), and thereby lead to a better accounts payable / accounts receivable ratio;
4. But it will mean fewer ships out of Fremont to pop some S/X on the back of, so they will have to go to part shipments to get them out there.

 

[mickificki]

BAF!

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Here's my simple model for Tesla's Battery Master Plan v.3

• The pilot plant is a proof-of-function prototype with a single line @ 10GWh/yr
  
• Tesla needs to build 9 additional Bty lines per year, each with 10GWh/yr capacity
• This gets us to 100GWh capacity in 2022, and ~3,000 by about 2029
• Note: if 3rd parties are unwilling/unable Tesla can build out 20 TWh/yr in 12 yrs

View attachment 591857

Now we get to the unstated consequence of Battery Day: Tesla MUST build a tertiary layer of production to build the machines that equip the Bty Cell factories.

Tesla MUST add 9 new such Bty lines (per chart above) to achieve the arithmetic growth required by their stated goals.

It might be practical to build a single such Meta-Factory, but given the scale required (potentially ~180 lines over 12 years), I think its more practical to build THREE such Meta-Factories (one each in China, Germany, and USA).

Each of these MTBTMs (Machines-that-build-the-Machine) would each have to be sized to produce 60 bty lines over 12 years, or about 5 each per year.

Think of these MTBTMs as Grohmann clones, but specialized for battery cells.

Does anybody know where (and from whom) Coca-cola Bottlers buy there production equipment? That's the scale of manufacturing we are discussing right now.

Cheers!

I like everything about this post. The only thing I don't like is that I didn't think this nor post this myself.

 

[Alphacrux]

OT: Officers Saver and Rex rescue two girls from attempted carjacking at Tesla Supercharger
San Marcos police officer and K-9 rescue two girls from attempted carjacking | KXAN Austin

Glad everyone is ok. Much gratitude to the two officers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Feb 01, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA 2-Day Slide Ends with an Upgraded PT"

Pre-Market:

Volume: 905,257
SP High $822.75
SP Low $793.53​

Main Session:

Traded: $20,553,750,822.81 ($20.56B)
Volume: 24,980,608
VWAP: $822.79

Close: $839.81 / VWAP: 102.07%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $825 (N/C from Fri)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.919718% (Jan 29)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $796.057B / $746.118B = 106.69%
NB: Yahoo Finance yet to update Mkt Cap re 7.91M shares on Dec 11th

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $792.68B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $493.91B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Mkt Cap req'd for 9th tranche ($500B) likely on Tue, Feb 09, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 40.4% (39th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 43.4% (47th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 2.36% of Short Volume (59th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Nocturnal "tell the IRS capital gains don't count because they're one time credits"

Comment: "Game theory"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Dreadnought]

Did you read the OP - we were talking about top-end German cars, not the Model 3 segment.

I'm only comparing my experience as well. As I said, the newer cars should be better, especially the MiC and pending MiG.

And I re-iterate that the *perception* of American-built car in the EU is that they're junk. It will take a lot to over-turn this. And no, I'm not equating fit-and-finish with luxury, but buyers of "top-end Audis, Mercs and BMWs" (hint - this was the original discussion) want that - fancy leather, polished wood, chrome, aluminium fittings, whatever. And they don't want it to creak and rattle as the car drives.

There is Mercedes-style luxury

and there is Tesla-style luxury:

And the same point can be made about quality. It's as much about perception as what buyers consider luxurious. Some appreciate perfect panel gaps inside and outside. For me, quality means that after 2 years ownership, the only maintenance I had was refill of wiper fluid. Instead of oil changes, I had about 50 OTA updates that made the car by leaps and bounds better than when I bought it. To me, luxury is that I can switch on AC remotely, or to always know the location of my car and (hopefully coming soon to EU) summoning it to pick me up.

Some people will never change their preferences but there are also many who experienced a Tesla in real life or simply from looking at youtube videos already did. And once they experienced the change of perspective, they won't go back to last century's definition of luxury - or quality.

Same as with other paradigm shifts, this starts slowly, almost unnoticeable until it's an unstoppable avalanche that nobody saw coming. Except some nerds at TMC maybe.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I was at the car wash yesterday (getting some Tesla love). A guy from a Ford dealership started talking up Mach-E and how it was going to blow away the Model 3. I asked if they were available yet. He said “soon”, but by "special order" only.

LOL, am I reading that right? Some guy came up to you and started telling you how the Ford is gonna be better than your car? Sounds like the stereotypical car salesman sociopath.

 

[Jkaufm32]

A bit off topic here, but I was wondering which lithium stocks everyone here has looked into or is invested in?

 

[UkNorthampton]

I remember pics of a few thousand model 3 in china supposedly headed to europe. I wondered if we had any verification that they actually got sold. Doubt the european sales numbers (if they even break that data out) would indicate country of origin. Do they show european unsold inventory somewhere? I wondered about european acceptance of the chinese made cars. Even thought they seem to be better made than the fremont product.

MIC Model 3 in Netherlands - also in Spain but NOT in Norway (all LR/P in Norway for Dec from memory)

 

[Discoducky]

A bit off topic here, but I was wondering which lithium stocks everyone here has looked into or is invested in?

PLL for me. We discuss other tech stocks here: What other tech stock to consider?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hard to do when they are only going to produce like 50k?

And most of those are going to the EU.

 

[BlackS]

Adam Jonas raises tsla price target to $880 from $810. See link for details.

https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1356355124487217162?s=21
View attachment 633049

Hmmm...covering himself so when it does reach $3k/share...he can say "I told you so'

 

[ABCTG]

1. It will also reduce CoGs because there will be less wasteful outbound logistics;
2. It will also reduce SGA because the SGA system can be optimised for smoother deliveries;
3. It will also reduce inventories (i.e. fewer in avge transit), and thereby lead to a better accounts payable / accounts receivable ratio;
4. But it will mean fewer ships out of Fremont to pop some S/X on the back of, so they will have to go to part shipments to get them out there.

S and X travel separately from 3

2021 Shipping Movements