Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

Just for fun, let's try an experiment by looking at the various forces affecting TSLA on Wednesday. NASDAQ futures are up 0.70%. GIven a 2.3X multiplier, TSLA would have a climb of about 0.7% NASDAQ gain x 2.3 = 1.6% TSLA gain on Wednesday. 1.6% of 873 = ~ $14. 873+14= 887.

Now we apply the filters. The upper bollinger band is at 912, so it does not constrain

Market makers want TSLA below 900 on Friday and will add resistance between 890 and 900. Thursdays and Fridays are likely to be more intense than Wednesdays. We'll say no significant interference from MMs on a climb to 887.

Price targets of above 900 and 1000 are common now, so no constraints on 887

There's room for huge error, of course, but my dartboard guesstimate would be 887ish close on Wednesday.

Just for fun, let’s point out that Bolingbrook bands:
Don’t constrain anything
Are user defined, thus can be made to be nearly any number.

market action is based upon sum of participants not some entity adding resistance.

 

[Johan]

Just for fun, let’s point out that Bolingbrook bands:
Don’t constrain anything
Are user defined, thus can be made to be nearly any number.

market action is based upon sum of participants not some entity adding resistance.

Even though you may not believe in Yahwew you're still going to have to take in to account that a lot of people do of you want to go shopping for bagels on Pesach or Shavuot.

 

[Todd Burch]

I enjoyed this. But can we as a forum stop saying x times cheaper? I see this all over the news and articles and it drives me nuts. What does it means? A fifth the cost? 80% cheaper? So say that.

This includes things like X times less

Example:

Lunch costs $5. A lunch that is five times less:

5 x $5 = $25

$5 - $25 = -$20

So a lunch that’s 5 times less costs -$20.

Me fail math? That’s unpossible!

 

[mrdoubleb]

I will take the bait!
Here are my guesses:

• Elon announces that for the last 10 years members of his companies has met regularly to probe and decipher the nature of reality. This team then announce their discovery that the reality is actually 7-dimensional. This opens up for rapid colonization of Mars due to expected though yet to be found shortcuts through mostly space but also(!) partially time. (Elon subsequently unveils/hints that he is - partly - from a nearby future) Rockets will still be useful for some decades - getting a 7D transfer wrong will be ... painful.(The 7D theory will subsequently known as 'strange theory', because you have to be quite strange in order to fully grasp it)
• Elon announces the unexpected part deux of Battery Day, whereby a new alloy, developed by SpaceX, will make batteries 5 times cheaper in 2-3 years.
  
• The Norwegian state oil fund decides that the best way to achieve less global warming and world peace is to donate half their wealth to Elon.
• Warren Buffet will retire. He announces that he now owns a lot of Tesla shares and will place 1/3 of his wealth in Tesla going forward. Also, Instead of donating money to Gates, he will donate money for Elon to build solar homes all over the world.
• EU puts Elon on a permanent retainer in the order of 1 billion euro per year for rapid expansion of solar and battery electric roll-out all over the world, bur particularly in the border regions of EU to combat both climate change and poverty.
  
• Elon will announce a merger of Tesla, SpaceX, Boring and Neuralink into a new company called X. Tesla will buy up a significant share of all Elons other companies using cash on hand and share swapped by a fraction TBD. The new X corporation then immediately announces a 1-10 stock split, based on Teslas pre-merger value. A stock stampede follows, ruining predatory short sellers, and enriching fans and HOLD'ers all over the world. All rejoice in the glory of a better, brighter world!

I was laughing until the last bullet point. Then deleted the stock trading app on my phone so I can't sell any now.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's actually up almost 2% now . He's just like most of us. Gets richer after he stops working.

I can't say I understand how that news is worth an ATH for AMZN but good for them I guess.

Ok one possibility is a hedge fund currently short Tesla is instituting a new risk management policy and buying $1700 calls would be capping their losses in the event of a crazy upside move. I imagine there are a bunch of hedge funds implementing new risk management policies after last week.

Considering $1700 is roughly double where we are now, and I'd bet a couple bucks it was just under double when they were purchased, I think that theory makes the most sense. Say your firm's short exposure is 100 million in TSLA, capping losses to 200 million definitely sounds like a risk management solution. Those guys are probably very much awake after their colleagues at Melvin etc. lost their collective behinds.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Just for fun, let’s point out that Bolingbrook bands:
Don’t constrain anything

Is this an Upstart Crow reference? I was not aware Ben Elton's humour 'worked' outside the UK.

 

[2daMoon]

I will take the bait!
Here are my guesses:

• Elon announces that for the last 10 years members of his companies has met regularly to probe and decipher the nature of reality. This team then announce their discovery that the reality is actually 7-dimensional. This opens up for rapid colonization of Mars due to expected though yet to be found shortcuts through mostly space but also(!) partially time. (Elon subsequently unveils/hints that he is - partly - from a nearby future) Rockets will still be useful for some decades - getting a 7D transfer wrong will be ... painful.(The 7D theory will subsequently known as 'strange theory', because you have to be quite strange in order to fully grasp it)
• Elon announces the unexpected part deux of Battery Day, whereby a new alloy, developed by SpaceX, will make batteries 5 times cheaper in 2-3 years.
  
• The Norwegian state oil fund decides that the best way to achieve less global warming and world peace is to donate half their wealth to Elon.
• Warren Buffet will retire. He announces that he now owns a lot of Tesla shares and will place 1/3 of his wealth in Tesla going forward. Also, Instead of donating money to Gates, he will donate money for Elon to build solar homes all over the world.
• EU puts Elon on a permanent retainer in the order of 1 billion euro per year for rapid expansion of solar and battery electric roll-out all over the world, bur particularly in the border regions of EU to combat both climate change and poverty.
  
• Elon will announce a merger of Tesla, SpaceX, Boring and Neuralink into a new company called X. Tesla will buy up a significant share of all Elons other companies using cash on hand and share swapped by a fraction TBD. The new X corporation then immediately announces a 1-10 stock split, based on Teslas pre-merger value. A stock stampede follows, ruining predatory short sellers, and enriching fans and HOLD'ers all over the world. All rejoice in the glory of a better, brighter world!

Wait just a minute!

Didn't all of those things already happen?

This is always so confusing, why doesn't GoogleMaps have an app for navigating Time Lines?

 

[saniflash]

Yes, but at any given week I promise you you're not going to be finding buyers for weekly calls at more than double the current stock price. Also do you own 1,8 million shares of TSLA to sell those $1700 calls against?

you never know who's sitting on other side of the screen...



exposure is also measured in Deltas. Consideration behind it may be about more than straight #contracts x100.

Maybe they were able to get a good $/delta or $/-delta from their prime on these contracts. Or a good $/theta if their original position is long

Or maybe it's part of a larger MM deal to hedge to delta neutrality by buying/selling these options between them

 

[lklundin]

CNN quoted someone who works for this "non-profit" organization. A little bit of history in it's opinion of Tesla.

From wikipedia,
Center for Automotive Research
In 2003, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) was established as an independent non-profit research organization. CAR creates economic and systems modeling research, develops new manufacturing methodologies, forecasts industry futures, advises on public policy, and conducts industry conferences and forums. As an example of its economic research, CAR chairman emeritus David Cole has in relation to the Tesla Michigan dealership dispute said: "The value of Tesla is all based on hype and not substance"

On the topic of quoted "automotive experts", I would to point everyone's attention to
"Partners for Automated Vehicle Education" (PAVE),
who for example have issued this statement:
"Automated vehicles offer great potential for improving roadway safety, but it is critical to develop this technology in a safe and responsible way. Public road testing is a serious responsibility and using untrained consumers to validate beta-level software on public roads is dangerous and inconsistent with existing guidance and industry norms. Moreover, it is extremely important to clarify the line between driver assistance and autonomy. Systems requiring human driver oversight are not self-driving and should not be called self-driving."

For media contact - lo and behold - none other than good, old:
[email protected]

 

[Johan]

you never know who's sitting on other side of the screen...



exposure is also measured in Deltas. Consideration behind it may be about more than straight #contracts x100.

Maybe they were able to get a good $/delta or $/-delta from their prime on these contracts. Or a good $/theta if their original position is long

Or maybe it's part of a larger MM deal to hedge to delta neutrality by buying/selling these options between them

Thinking more about it you're right. And I didn't mean to imply that you don't own 1,8 million shares of TSLA

 

[Nocturnal]

On the topic of quoted "automotive experts", I would to point everyone's attention to
"Partners for Automated Vehicle Education" (PAVE),
who for example have issued this statement:
"Automated vehicles offer great potential for improving roadway safety, but it is critical to develop this technology in a safe and responsible way. Public road testing is a serious responsibility and using untrained consumers to validate beta-level software on public roads is dangerous and inconsistent with existing guidance and industry norms. Moreover, it is extremely important to clarify the line between driver assistance and autonomy. Systems requiring human driver oversight are not self-driving and should not be called self-driving."

For media contact - lo and behold - none other than good, old:
[email protected]

And CNN is arguably the best of our 3 cable news channels. Let that sink in. No wonder the US is a mess.

 

[Rohan]

Is this an Upstart Crow reference? I was not aware Ben Elton's humour 'worked' outside the UK.

Careful or the puretitties will be complaining about your puffling pants

Also TSLA at $877.55 in premarket

 

[StealthP3D]

This is excellent. Relevant because it's worth comparing leadership styles.

Email from Jeff Bezos to employees

You're right. I got a little over half-way through it and realized how tedious it had become. I almost didn't finish but then I went back and forced myself to read it.

Elon's messages might be controversial, but never tedious.

 

[kosarfan]

GSK, CureVac partnership eyes Covid-19 vaccine against multiple variants

Looks like CureVac is making some progress...Tesla (Grohman) is helping with the RNA printers correct?

 

[Buddyroe]

To be fair to CNN, they were told that by "expert" Kristin Dziczek... Kristin Dziczek | Center for Automotive Research

"Prior to joining CAR, Kristin served as the associate director of the Michigan Manufacturing Technology Center, and has worked for the U.S. Congress, International Union UAW, and General Motors Corporation."

To be fair, if you use an idiot for a source, and the statement is completely ridiculous, you're just as guilty.

 

[Etna]

Elon leaving Twitter for awhile usually means what? I don't remember that last time he took a Twitter break.

It means nothing.

Elon drops twitter for two or three days at least two or three times a year, and he provides prior notice once or twice a year, like June 1st last year. More recently he went also quiet a couple of days without prior notice.

This is completely the norm, but very often the media likes to freak out about it, as if two countries are on the verge of a nuclear war.

Like this morning in my newspaper (progressive and very pro-environment). There was a fracking full-half page on this, written by Agence France Presse (a bit like Reuters when it comes to systematically spewing falsehoods on Tesla), with lots of guesswork on the reasons written as they were facts (SEC and all), and producing quotes from whoever could show the most hatred for the man. Some California University Professor this time.

 

[phantasms]

Why no go up?

 

[Coolio2000]

And CNN is arguably the best of our 3 cable news channels. Let that sink in. No wonder the US is a mess.

Pure comedy gold! Dude, they are "ALL" hyper-biased garbage.

 

[Nocturnal]

MMD a little early today.

Pure comedy gold! Dude, they are "ALL" hyper-biased garbage.

They are all crap.

 

[stealthyc]

GM has a pretty great commercial