Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

...GM wants to have an ever increasing market share of the shrinking ICE market and will milk their polluting vehicles as long as their customers and the government lets them. In the interim they will pretend like their green credentials are industry leading and they are a different company than the one that killed the EV-1.

The "different company" claim is especially smelly since GM (unlike some other automakers) sided with Trump against California's pollution standards... until Trump lost the election. Did the company become "different" in the last two months? Was the management touched by an angel?

GM flips to California's side in pollution fight with Trump

 

[Buckminster]

 

[PeterJA]

Warren updated his battery-revenue model based on Tesla's Q4 earnings call. With optimistic but reasonable assumptions, the model's market cap and share price in 2030 get (in his words) "bat guano crazy"... except he didn't say "guano."

 

[JustMe]

Warren updated his battery-revenue model based on Tesla's Q4 earnings call. With optimistic but reasonable assumptions, the model's market cap and share price in 2030 get (in his words) "bat guano crazy"... except he didn't say "guano."

This guy seems. . . a bit optimistic. His ultra-bullish model has Tesla growing to a market cap twice the size of the entire global economy by 2030. Well it’s a fun listen anyway.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - this evening: Ford Motor terminates electric vehicle plans with China's Zotye

Excerpt:


In a statement on Thursday, Ford said it would pursue a more "flexible business model in China" that would see it utilise its existing operations in the country and elsewhere, and build related business centres.

Zotye did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In 2017, during a visit by former U.S. President Donald Trump to China, Ford and Zotye said that they would invest a combined $756 million to set up a 50-50 joint venture in China to build small electric passenger vehicles.

A year later, the two companies said they had signed a memorandum of understanding for another venture that would make electric vehicles for ride-hailing fleets.

EV makers from home-grown Nio Inc to U.S. leader Tesla Inc have been expanding manufacturing capacity in the world's largest auto market, where the government is heavily promoting greener vehicles as a means of reducing chronic air pollution.

 

[MC3OZ]

Or if you want a technical video:-

 

[Artful Dodger]

T-7 min and counting...

 

[jeewee3000]

I call it as I see it: that’s the cause, so it only helps.

Elon can participate or not, cooperate or not; his choice. But he doesn’t get to complain he didn’t have an opportunity to confirm/deny/clarify facts, stories, and viewpoints. He’s had three years of ample opportunity to, and has so far chosen not to. (Elon if you’re reading this my hailing frequencies remain open but I’m not gonna beg.)

Ashley Vance also mentioned how difficult it was to get in touch with Elon/Tesla during the writing of his Elon-biography. I recall he stated Elon was always against the book, scared of having no control over what was printed. He only wanted to help if he had editing rights or something. (I read it years ago, was something along those lines.)

So not surprised by your experiences @tinm ! Good luck with your project.

 

[Buckminster]

His ultra-bullish model has Tesla growing to a market cap twice the size of the entire global economy by 2030

Pretty sure Tesla will still be part of the global economy in 2030. Also, the global economy will probably double by 2030.
So Tesla will only be half the global economy...

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Pretty sure Tesla will still be part of the global economy in 2030. Also, the global economy will probably double by 2030.
So Tesla will only be half the global economy...

By 2030 there will be more than one global economy.

 

[StealthP3D]

This guy seems. . . a bit optimistic. His ultra-bullish model has Tesla growing to a market cap twice the size of the entire global economy by 2030. Well it’s a fun listen anyway.

Pretty sure Tesla will still be part of the global economy in 2030. Also, the global economy will probably double by 2030.
So Tesla will only be half the global economy...

A theory I came up with 7 or 8 years ago is that markets are in the biggest and longest bull run in market history and it's all based on the convergence of technologies. I came up with this before being exposed to Cathie Wood or Tony Seba but it's essentially the same idea. The speed of information transfer is creating the golden age of technology. The tech boom and bust of 2000? That was simply the catalyst that kicked the whole thing off. The value that will be created over the next 30 years, barring major calamities, is just unimaginable.

If we don't enter a major recession or world war between now and 2030, I think the global economy will likely more than double, maybe triple, by 2030. And that's just the beginning. Sure, there will be major corrections along the way but markets always go in fits and spurts. We are at the very beginning of the transformation from the industrial age to the technological age.

 

[WarpedOne]

The Best book on Elon and Tesla is already written.
The best part is it gets updated and fact checked and reviewed almost in real time.
It is available free of charge for all to read at their leisure here.

 

[RobStark]

California 2020 Total Sales.

I thought this was the year Tesla surpassed Nissan. Maybe this year.

Brand..................CA 2020.................................... % Share

1. Toyota........281,391 ...........,...........................17.2
2. Honda........188,277.........................................11.5
3. Ford...........146,425..........................................8.9
4. Chevrolet...127,231..........................................7.8
5. Nissan........78,507..........................................4.8
6. Tesla.........71,390......................................4.4
7. Subaru......68,333............................................4.2
8. Merc Benz..64,453..........................................3.9
   
9. KIA.............60,996............................................3.7
10. BMW..........56,144............................................3.4
    
11. Hyundai......55,534...........................................3.4
    
12. Jeep............52,647..........................................3.2
13. Lexus..........51,793..........................................3.2
14. RAM.............43,196.........................................2.6
15. Mazda..........39,145.........................................2.4
16. Volkswagen..35,576........................................2.2
17. Audi..............33,790.........................................2.1
    
18. GMC.............33,172..........................................2.0
19. Dodge..........26,073.........................................1.6
20. Acura ...........16,321.........................................1.0
    
21. Land Rover ..15,506.........................................0.9
    
22. Porsche........13,121...........................................0.8
    
23. Volvo.............12,291..........................................0.7
    
24. Chrysler........11,113..........................................0.7
25. Infiniti............10,154..........................................0.6
26. Cadillac.........9,853..........................................0.6
27. Lincoln..........6,044..........................................0.4
    
28. Mitsubishi.....5,759..........................................0.4
29. Mini...............5,397.........................................0.3
    
30. Buick.............5,319..........................................0.3
31. Jaguar...........3,826.........................................0.2
32. Alfa Romeo....3,504........................................0.2
33. Genesis.........2,289.........................................0.1
    
34. FIAT................387...........................................0
35. Other..............3010.........................................0.2

Total.........................1,639,166 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-20.pdf

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Warren updated his battery-revenue model based on Tesla's Q4 earnings call. With optimistic but reasonable assumptions, the model's market cap and share price in 2030 get (in his words) "bat guano crazy"... except he didn't say "guano."

The things he misses are:
1. a declining ASP for vehicles (a few percent a year)
2. competition for FSD reducing what they can charge (starting 2026?)
3. none battery products (Solar, HVAC, etc)

I personally think a model with 80% or 90% growth for the next 3-4 years then dropping to 50% or lower is more likely, but I understand his desire to keep things simple. I wouldn't go beyond 2026 in forecasting, up til then we have good visibility on products, manufacturing capability and competition.

Discounting back projections those projections to the present (say with a 10% discount rate) would suggest that TSLA is severely undervalued. This means that the market as a whole still thinks a bear case much lower than his is the likely outcome.

If his forecast comes true then there will be lots of Tesla-billionaires in this forum.

 

[Khamul]

Whenever Elon says he’s offline for “a while”, it means between 12 and 48 hours, maximum

Anyway, here’s a small, fun thing:
In Sweden, they’re working on a project on electrical highways, så semis can charge while driving. In Swedish electricity is called “el”. But in tech everything has to have english names, so they have made a mashup: el on roads. Or, as they call it on their webpage, elonroads It took me a while to figure out what that actually means.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

This guy seems. . . a bit optimistic. His ultra-bullish model has Tesla growing to a market cap twice the size of the entire global economy by 2030. Well it’s a fun listen anyway.

That is a mistake, you cannot compare market cap and GDP, it is a bit like comparing kW and kWh. The world economy may be double that of today (7% growth rate), and Tesla revenues would be about 1/40 of the world GDP, which is still ludicrously high.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Whenever Elon says he’s offline for “a while”, it means between 12 and 48 hours, maximum

Anyway, here’s a small, fun thing:
In Sweden, they’re working on a project on electrical highways, så semis can charge while driving. In Swedish electricity is called “el”. But in tech everything has to have english names, so they have made a mashup: el on roads. Or, as they call it on their webpage, elonroads It took me a while to figure out what that actually means.

Interesting, but why spend anything on this exceedingly costly idea when it so very, very likely to be obsolete in a year or three?

Seriously, the Tesla Semi economics are so massively overwhelming that such expensive, boondoggle projects are a complete waste of money. I really wish had the battery capacity to be making them now--it's going to be such a game changer.

 

[zzziii]

Steve Jurvetson has posted the following on his FB account.

 

[Khamul]

Interesting, but why spend anything on this exceedingly costly idea when it so very, very likely to be obsolete in a year or three?

Seriously, the Tesla Semi economics are so massively overwhelming that such expensive, boondoggle projects are a complete waste of money. I really wish had the battery capacity to be making them now--it's going to be such a game changer.

Agreed, it’s complete bollocks. I read all EV articles on the danish engineering unions newspage, and it’s amazing and frankly scary how misguided most comments are. Instead of EVs, people there claim that we should just - “just” - electrify all roads, or use hydrogen or what about when you have to haul a boat 1000 km uphill both ways. You have to be an engineer to comment there (I’m not, I just read), and many of them are either completely clueless or keep getting involved in all these elonroad things and hydrogen and what have you.

One person there keeps hijacking threads to discuss his amazing RUF-system. It’ll solve ALL problems with cars. It’s perhaps the most hilarious bad webpage I have ever seen, including 1995 geocities pages.

Anyway, I’m really, really happy to have found this forum.

 

[SO16]

It was even worse than that. Sandy pushed back on even that not great statement of Elon's pointing out that Sandy's car was built last fall, well after initial production problems. Elon was forced to admit that they probably had a design change which cause quality problems all over again. Basically Tesla is always tweaking something on their cars, which is why you have random quality issues.

It is what it is with Tesla.

If they just had someone spend a few minutes reviewing the vehicle before contacting owner for delivery, they would catch the most glaring issues. Sandy’s passenger door was hard to miss.