Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LiveLong&Profit]

I'm sure the thought has already crossed everyone's mind, but with the castings eliminating 600 robots (300 each for front and rear--wow is that right?!?) that means that new factories, aside from being cheaper, also come up more quickly. Don't have to wait for those robots to be delivered, or to calibrate each one. Relatively easier to just get a single casting machine set up. So every manufacturing improvement there pays dividends in the future.

Improve the wiring system...now what other machinery is no longer needed for future factories? Optimize. Improve the rate at which you can manufacture. Take over the world. Then Todd cashes in his stock and buys a bunch of girlfriends islands.

The first time I heard about 'casting cars like toy' I didn't really take note - it sounded outlandish. But now, the more I see, hear and learn about casting, the better it looks. Casting for the win!
(Casting all-in: Cast the whole car, make a tipping function, and make people enter through the (large) sun-roof. Add wheels. Solved!)

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Again today a coworker come to me at and says “sell all your Tesla stock! Now! You’ll be kicking yourself when it goes to zero, Sophia.”

lol! Don’t they know by now I’ve solidified my confidence in my long term position with this company? (Now I do have plenty in my savings to cover more than I will ever need and two solid jobs).
But, I’m never going to sell. Not today, not tomorrow, not next year, not in 5 years. Period! I may not know everything but I do know this.

I admit it happens way less to me now.

 

[Favguy]

Seen it.
Yes - maybe we should perhaps, with inspiration from WSB, coin the phrase Diamond Bull.
Funny though, watching clip is like the famous cooking a frog - analogue - it is gradual process. It is hard to know when to jump out of the pot. Individually, the claims are not that wild. The numbers are just huge.
But then again: Who would have thought, when the first iPhone came out around 2007 that Apple would a) become the largest company in the world by some margin and b) that people would radically change their preferences from paying ~100 dollar for a phone to sometimes 1000 dollars for a pocket computer with a phone app.

Sometimes these weird tectonic shifts happen...
His two largest assumptions are battery scaling and the advent of FSD/robotaxis.
The thing is though, even if both slip by a couple of years, the end-result does not fundamentally change - the numbers still remain crazy high, just shifted back a few years.

I often think Warren is a bit OTT, but then again, I continue to be amazed by what really can happen. Only 9 years ago I made my first TSLA investment of £25k. At the time if someone had told me it'd now be worth almost £400k, I'd have laughed them out of the room, yet here we are and it's worth 10x that...

 

[Lycanthrope]

Just saw this in my news feed. Trying to tie the former POTUS and Elon together in their disregard for safety. Author really pushing to curtail "self driving" and includes quotes from experts.

ETA Sorry about the messy looking link.

https://www-latimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&_amp=true&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16124617915953&csi=0&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-04/news-analysis-federal-auto-safety-agency-left-a-massive-pile-for-biden

FFS, you could have warned us it was a Russ "the clown" Mitchell piece. He's pure $TSLAQ, he donated to Aaron Greenspan's phoney charity.

He's the guy that was going around, back during C19 first wave, the hospitals in the Bay Area trying to prove that Tesla hadn't donated any ventilators...

He's an idiot of the highest order.

He deleted many of his Twitter posts as they were quite incriminating with regards to the saboteur trial that was ongoing https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell

 

[GOVA]

What on earth for? This is Tesla. Stop being such a troublemaker (/s) and just BUY one. That's basically what I did my first 2 Tesla model X's.

Spoiler

You'll love it.

Oh, no. I don't need convincing. I am sure it is fine of a product to buy. I'd like to find out how much Tesla's lead gap has increased over the "competition"

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

For the sake of discussion: How many more factories do you think Tesla will build?

Around 15 GFs ~2 million each should give us 30 million.
Approximated, some will be small, some will be huge!
Re. huge, in Austin there is probably room for 4-6 GFs depending on how much spodumene processing the also want co-located. Not sure space would be reserved for a big corp. headquarter. Elon likes people close to the factory floor.
Countries to watch: Vietnam, Poland, Mexico.
If they can really speed up manufacturing a lot, maybe only 10 locations are needed. It would save a lot of time spend politicking.
"The best factory is no factory"

 

[Lycanthrope]

What? You just made $26,000 on this dip? I'm doing this all wrong.

On that one trade, yes. Made some beer money selling some puts too.

I'll resell those calls - or something similar - when the SP pops back up (hopefully Monday & Tuesday)

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

View attachment 633899

Y'all been served ample notice

Stock split? Or white rabbit? Or both?

 

[Cape Coddess]

why don’t you just tell her you sold everything and you are only in index funds? So she’s not concerned anymore about your stock portfolio. My Pleasure!

Nah... Let them watch and learn.

 

[PeterJA]

FFS, you could have warned us it was a Russ "the clown" Mitchell piece. He's pure $TSLAQ, he donated to Aaron Greenspan's phoney charity.

He's the guy that was going around, back during C19 first wave, the hospitals in the Bay Area trying to prove that Tesla hadn't donated any ventilators...

He's an idiot of the highest order.

He deleted many of his Twitter posts as they were quite incriminating with regards to the saboteur trial that was ongoing https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell

When a hit piece actually lists "whompy wheels" as a safety concern, you know you are reading a hardcore Tesla-hater.

Here's what a Tesla hating LA Times hack writes about the next "Tesla Killer."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1204478990649458689

 

[Lycanthrope]

Stock split? Or white rabbit? Or both?

Don't think we want Tesla selling rabbits, had enough of PETA with steering-wheel-gate...

 

[elasalle]

I’m glad my 85 year old dad gets it. He asks lots of questions about TSLA and is really interested. “Just keep doing what you’re doing, son. You’ve made more in a few months than I have in a lifetime.” I love my dad.

Kudos!!
My Dad plays the lottery.
Still haven't told him I have already won one

Kind of knows about my TSLA investments, but without saying what actual numbers are it is kinda hard to comprehend Little worried that he would ask me to sell some.

 

[JustMe]

I just got similar advice today from a family member telling me "Apple is making an electric car, you should sell all your TSLA stock, seriously"

I get the feeling that people like this believe we have put the same amount of thought into our Tesla investment as they have (an hour, tops?)

They have no idea how deep we’ve gone

 

[Artful Dodger]

But when are you cashing out?

My original plan was to sell on Oct 27, 2027.

However, based on what we now know about Tesla's product roadmap, I'll revise that:

NEVER.​

Lol, c.f. discussion above about borrowing against the value of your shares. When TSLA growth drops below 2.75% per year, then it's time to sell to pay off the loan (and NOT before!).

I reckon Tesla growth will still be above 25% through 2040, long into my retirement. By then it'll be SpaceX and asteroid mining (not just Starlink).

I'm riding this Elon train to the last stop (even if AI eats the visible Universe).

Cheers!

 

[Christine600]

Why are you selling? Get a collateral loan on your stock. It is low interest and cost me (as an example) 2.65% and some are getting a better rate than that. Keep all your money in the stock. Good times and good luck!

Edit: Look up SBL lending (Securities Based Lending)

I might just do that later on. Right now I'm minimizing my debt while negotiating a mortgage.

Instead of selling stock, why not sell covered calls?

Just sayin'

I know. But not an option (sic) on the type of investment account I use. And it sounds too much like work.

These are a couple of good threads on the retirement issues:

How to best sell down when retired - and options are not possible

How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

Early retirement strategies

 

[Mengy]

Lol, c.f. discussion above about borrowing against the value of your shares. When TSLA growth drops below 2.75% per year, then it's time to sell to pay off the loan (and NOT before!).

I've got to be honest, I don't know much about margin trading or options. For my entire life I've just bought shares in companies I was confident in (or VOO) and held long term. Now and then I'd sell some long term shares to move the money into other long term stocks.

My plan for next year was to "retire" and then just sell a few shares of TSLA from time to time to pay the bills and buy myself stuff. Maybe I need to learn about margins now that I have bucket loads of money in my accounts....

 

[Xepa777]

My original plan was to sell on Oct 27, 2027.

However, based on what we now know about Tesla's product roadmap, I'll revise that:

NEVER.​

Lol, c.f. discussion above about borrowing against the value of your shares. When TSLA growth drops below 2.75% per year, then it's time to sell to pay off the loan (and NOT before!).

I recon Tesla growth will be still above 25% through 2040, long into my retirement. By then it'll be SpaceX and asteroid mining (not just Starlink).

I'm riding this Elon train to the last stop...

Cheers!

Yah, what's happening here sorta reminds me of that classic quote of "our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure."

Like...adding up the TAM of Tesla's markets can literally get you to a GDP beyond the entire world. It's ridiculous, and there's a part of you that says "that sounds so silly." We had the Mega Bulls thread on TMC, and no one dreamed on the stock price being where it's actually at today. Even if/when Tesla inevitably fails to reach the max potential of some of its markets (i.e. insurance, solar), the scope of ambition and engineering prowess means there's always a fighting shot to make a meaningful dent.

Tesla's TAM is unlimited. Because de-carbonizing the world and autonomizing it is...re-forming the way we all live. I have no clue what the SP will be in 2030, but I have a great deal of confidence that its revenue and cashflow will be meaningfully higher than today by several orders of magnitude. And that makes Tesla safer than any Vanguard investment for me.

 

[BabyBull]

Buys Mar 23 1500s. IV @ 69%

Explain this please. I only see IV @76% on ameritrade.

 

[MABMAB]

Me thinks too many people here feel they have to be "doing something" to invest successfully.
Must be some emotional benefit to scheming, dreaming, planning, moving in and out, rolling over...

For me, K.I.S.S.

 

[Duffer]

FFS, you could have warned us it was a Russ "the clown" Mitchell piece. He's pure $TSLAQ, he donated to Aaron Greenspan's phoney charity.

He's the guy that was going around, back during C19 first wave, the hospitals in the Bay Area trying to prove that Tesla hadn't donated any ventilators...

He's an idiot of the highest order.

He deleted many of his Twitter posts as they were quite incriminating with regards to the saboteur trial that was ongoing https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell

Guilty as charged. I should have included a warning. However, in my defense (as weak as it is) with that headline who else would the article be from?

Wow, who knew? Per the TMC punishment guide my oversight equals 50 lashes or reading 5 Dana Hull articles. Bring on the cat-o-nine tails.