Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Unfortunately, for the next few years, Tesla is still vulnerable to Black Swans - either at Fremont or Shanghai which could set us back many years.

When Shanghai, Berlin, Austin and a thitd US Giga are at full capacity, I will sleep well.

edit: I’ve lost track of “Giga” nominclature. Loss of either Nevada or Buffalo would be severe. We’ve got a ways to go before we can lean back in the leather chair with our brandy snifter and declare success.

I expect to my asset-backed line-of-credit limit will be no greater than 50% of the assets in the account (possibly less if it all stays in TSLA). I plan to use about half of that credit limit to allow for (dark grey) swans.

If it gets any worse than that, I'll pull a classic @anthonyj sell half my long shares and buy long calls!

Which way to the BEACH?!

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

FFS, you could have warned us it was a Russ "the clown" Mitchell piece. He's pure $TSLAQ, he donated to Aaron Greenspan's phoney charity.

He's the guy that was going around, back during C19 first wave, the hospitals in the Bay Area trying to prove that Tesla hadn't donated any ventilators...

He's an idiot of the highest order.

He deleted many of his Twitter posts as they were quite incriminating with regards to the saboteur trial that was ongoing https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell

Thought it would be hard to find someone 'dumber' than GJ....but yeah Russ "the clown" Mitchell definitely one ups GJ.

 

[ZeApelido]

Russian Mitchell

 

[JustSaying]

I expect to my asset-backed line-of-credit limit will be no greater than 50% of the assets in the account (possibly less if it all stays in TSLA). I plan to use about half of that credit limit to allow for (dark grey) swans.

If it gets any worse than that, I'll pull a classic @anthonyj sell half my long shares and buy long calls!

Which way to the BEACH?!

Cheers!

This was a Ko Olina beach sunset last week,it was Kinda right out off the balcony.

 

[Words of HABIT]

How is it possible that someone can write an article about a car fire and make no attempt to identify the car. The only thing this tells us with 100% certainty is that it is NOT a Tesla.

A man who was trying to get his SUV unstuck from a snowbank was killed when the vehicle caught fire - CNN

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Ford doubles electric vehicle investment to $22 billion through 2025 - Electrek

Ford CEO Jim Farley said:

We are accelerating all our plans – breaking constraints, increasing battery capacity, improving costs, and getting more electric vehicles into our product cycle plan. People are responding to what Ford is doing today, not someday. The Mustang Mach-E, he said, is receiving great customer and critical reviews, and will be followed by the first E-Transit commercial van (late 2021) and an all-electric F-150 pickup (mid 2022).

The CEO claimed that Ford is “all in and will not cede ground to anyone” in the electrification race.​

Gotta admire Ford's determination to not "cede" any of their imaginary "ground to anyone".
(as they get dragged uphill - wheels spinning, Cybertruck style)


.

 

[ZeApelido]

Video of new Tesla Semi:

 

[Artful Dodger]

This was a Ko Olina beach sunset last week,it was Kinda right out off the balcony.
View attachment 633996

OT:

Spoiler: Big Island

Lol, Oahu way too haoli for me! I prefer preferred the hot ponds at Ahalanui Beach Park (Pahoa coast, Big Island). Water temp about 100 F near the hot spring, 90F near the sea wall:

Fun fact: Hawaii Electric Light Co gets a fair amount of its electricity from the geothermal plant in Puna (about a mile from the hot ponds). Much of the rest of Big Island electricity is provided by wind power from South Point.

Fabulous hike out to the Green Sand beach, if you're ever on da A'aina.

Cheers!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Video of new Tesla Semi:

Weird. Over a day old on youtube. Only 600 views of what I think is by far the closest look we've got of any Semi.

Guess not to many EV fans are on this truckers youtube channel. Interesting though that as skeptical he sounds a few times he still seems perfectly willing to give it a chance.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks for pro-tip, Phil. I didn’t know you had a lot of journalism experience. Also, Isaacson is a lightweight historian who tends to overlook important facts, misleads readers with historical inaccuracies you could sail a Glovis ro-ro ship through, and doesn’t do the deep homework, but whatever. And the taken out of context argument seems reasonable on the surface but is not at all the issue here.

Everybody is shooting from the hip here. This is not adding value, just spreading ignorance. I recommend returning to learned speculation on stock price.

Were you trying to make a point when you used my real first name? That could be considered outing someone, and it could be considered a threat (“I know who you really are “). Not cool.

 

[Mo City]

Ford doubles electric vehicle investment to $22 billion through 2025 - Electrek

Ford CEO Jim Farley said:

We are accelerating all our plans – breaking constraints, increasing battery capacity, improving costs, and getting more electric vehicles into our product cycle plan. People are responding to what Ford is doing today, not someday. The Mustang Mach-E, he said, is receiving great customer and critical reviews, and will be followed by the first E-Transit commercial van (late 2021) and an all-electric F-150 pickup (mid 2022).

The CEO claimed that Ford is “all in and will not cede ground to anyone” in the electrification race.​

Gotta admire Ford's determination to not "cede" any of their imaginary "ground to anyone".
(as they get dragged uphill - wheels spinning, Cybertruck style)


.

This is purely a PR move aimed at politicians, regulators and the public. Simple as that. Now that the political environment has flipped, Ford can't be seen as slacking compared to GM.

For both Ford and GM, the proof will be in the production numbers as the years pass. Their pronouncements have no cred.

 

[Cosmacelf]

About 2 orders of magnitude more than they have now give or take.

This would be including off-earth factories. Also, tunnels may allow efficient fractionation of factories and tunnels themselves may contain factories.

Once self assembly becomes a thing there may be more orders still, but the semantic distinctions around what constitutes a "factory" may make the original question more or less meaningless.

Once Elon clones himself, Tesla and SpaceX will really start growing fast.

(I might not even be joking. Elon actually talked about downloading a copy of himself using eventual Neuralink technology during his recent Clubhouse interview).

 

[jbcarioca]

Like many others, I have had my share of "advice" from friends and family. ... Same, sad excuses over the years despite the current SP, continued growth and growing disparity between Tesla and the "competition."

Unlike most other TSLA investors I know I have never had any of my friends/family/associates tell me I should sell. Quite a few of them have said my risk tolerance was higher than theirs, but those were people I've known for many years and who are well aware of my entrepreneurial activities also. Their observations on risk tolerance thus included doing startups in Dubai, the Bahamas, The US and elsewhere. By those standards TSLA is pretty tame. Strangely even my US tax attorney never said a word about the choices.

The exceptions were brokers who try very hard to get me to 'invest' in things that make them money. If I wanted car salesman I would not purchase a Tesla.
Despite having quite a few years as a universal banker I really do hate brokers, of anything at all. I avoid them for real property, automobiles and anything else when I can. Frankly, I never trust any salesman of anything. I suspect the majority of the TSLA negative views come from people with a vested interest in legacy approaches. For reasons I cannot fathom the America Firsters I know seem not to like American innovation.

My suspicion is that the anti-TSLA community is rapidly losing force. Once there is China, Germany, and US (Austin, Buffalo, Fremont and Reno) the trajectory will begin to overwhelm many opponents. Further, cash flow positive, cash rich, GAAP profits, non GAAP profits excluding sold credits all add to the inexorable force.

FUD will never totally leave but it certainly is losing force.
Happy 2021 to us all!

 

[redan]

OT:

I agree, @Artful Dodger, I’m on the Island of Hawaii now. We do nice sunsets on the west side of the island, here’s one from last month over looking Anaeho’omalu Bay.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I agree, @Artful Dodger, I’m on the Island of Hawaii now. We do nice sunsets on the west side of the island also, here’s one from last month over looking Anaeho’omalu Bay.

View attachment 634053

Needs a model S in the picture.

Like so;

 

[Tim S]

edit: I’ve lost track of “Giga” nominclature.

In the US, it's the state (Nevada, New York, Texas). Elsewhere, it's the city (Shanghai, Berlin).

 

[Mengy]

No, no, no margin. Most collateral accounts do not allow margin or options. Just check with your broker and see if they offer line-of-credit loans with your shares as collateral. The loan is treated sort of like margin (loan amount available based on your portfolio value, if portfolio value falls, you may be required to pay off part of loan). But as mentioned above, *usually* the interest rates appear quite low and no minimum payments are required.

Yeah I don't think Vanguard does that. I'll have to look into it and maybe even call them to find out, I'm curious now.

 

[Tim S]

How is it possible that someone can write an article about a car fire and make no attempt to identify the car. The only thing this tells us with 100% certainty is that it is NOT a Tesla.

A man who was trying to get his SUV unstuck from a snowbank was killed when the vehicle caught fire - CNN

If anyone is curious, it was a Mazda...
NJ Man Dies by Fire After Repeatedly Revving SUV's Engine While Stuck in Snowbank

 

[dww12]

OT:

Spoiler: Big Island

Lol, Oahu way too haoli for me! I prefer preferred the hot ponds at Ahalanui Beach Park (Pahoa coast, Big Island). Water temp about 100 F near the hot spring, 90F near the sea wall:

Fun fact: Hawaii Electric Light Co gets a fair amount of its electricity from the geothermal plant in Puna (about a mile from the hot ponds). Much of the rest of Big Island electricity is provided by wind power from South Point.

Fabulous hike out to the Green Sand beach, if you're ever on da A'aina.

Cheers!

Did that pool survive? I thought the volcano took everything down to Isaac Hale. I was hoping to find a place and retire at the Kapoha Tide pools . That was the most beautiful place on earth.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Ford loses $1.28B in 2020 and will now focus on EVs. F share price goes up 1% in AH trading. Although Ford can't make money selling their ICE cars after 117 years in the auto industry, their investors now believe they are on the right track as they simply will shift to EVs and viola, they are the next Tesla.

Ford loses US$1.28B in 2020, raises electric vehicle spending