Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

It was a nice concept but videos have made it clear for some time the internal roadway wasn't happening. The west structure will connect eastward within a week or two.

How does that preclude the internal road? The ground floor ceiling is much taller than a semi, and the spacing between posts is much wider.

Yeah, the internal floor is all at the same level. When you load/unload a truck you want a difference in level between the road the truck is on and the dock. Like 4-5 feet. That's clearly not happening inside the factory.

For standard goods in a trailer, sure. Bulk materials that get unloaded from the side or via gantry crane (steel rolls, aluminum) are less compatible with that setup. Expanding on efficency, the use of shipping containers would allow rapid swapping via crane. Trucks would only be there for the time it takes to switch units. Then the container gets unloaded as needed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The counter argument I have for discounting China long term is the $25,000 Model 2 that is to be built in China for worldwide consumption. That car will be such an important part of China’s exports they cannot afford to give Tesla the google treatment. China’s EV companies can copy that car but they won’t have the global name recognition Tesla has to be able to export their versions of the Model 2 with a high rate of success globally.

I'd be surprised if a $25k vehicle was being exported to the EU or US long term. Transport costs would be too large a fraction of the sale price. Far more likely to be build domestically in a highly automated line.

 

[mekberg]

The counter argument I have for discounting China long term is the $25,000 Model 2 that is to be built in China for worldwide consumption. That car will be such an important part of China’s exports they cannot afford to give Tesla the google treatment. China’s EV companies can copy that car but they won’t have the global name recognition Tesla has to be able to export their versions of the Model 2 with a high rate of success globally.

They would also have to build it cheaply to compete on price. How do you do that without giga presses?

 

[Prunesquallor]

How does that preclude the internal road? The ground floor ceiling is much taller than a semi, and the spacing between posts is much wider.



For standard goods in a trailer, sure. Bulk materials that get unloaded from the side or via gantry crane (steel rolls, aluminum) are less compatible with that setup. Expanding on efficency, the use of shipping containers would allow rapid swapping via crane. Trucks would only be there for the time it takes to switch units. Then the container gets unloaded as needed.

That's how I initially thought things might work. Overhead bridge cranes would lift the containers off the semi and transport them to whatever part of the factory they were needed. Unloaded there and returned.

Than would reduce the floor space needed for transfer aisles. Elon has commented on the floor space inefficiencies of factories.

 

[Lessmog]

I'd be surprised if a $25k vehicle was being exported to the EU or US long term. Transport costs would be too large a fraction of the sale price. Far more likely to be build domestically in a highly automated line.

That Silk Road rail we hear whispers about might lower transport costs to EU when/if finished, no? Could improve calculus.

 

[Paul_SF]

That Silk Road rail we hear whispers about might lower transport costs to EU when/if finished, no? Could improve calculus.

whispers? The land bridge to EU is already open and operational, from my understanding and the clips I’ve seen about it.

 

[Mo City]

To @Mo City , @jerry33 , @EL0NTRK, and other Texans, at 12:30 on Ron Maurer's Feb. 2 podcast he discusses report that Tesla Insurance is coming to Texas.

edit: here, too.
Tesla Insurance Due to Launch in Texas Soon, as Broader Expansion Will Be a Game Changer

This is especially relevant to me now because we just got our second Tesla. However, my son's dinosaur remains on our policy.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I’ve created a new thread for the SBLOC: extra cash by borrowing against assets discussion (16 posts)

 

[petit_bateau]

whispers? The land bridge to EU is already open and operational, from my understanding and the clips I’ve seen about it.

Yes, it is operational. Has been for many years. I shipped product UK >> CN by rail last week.

At present railfreight is more expensive than seafreight, but about twice as fast.

 

[Richard007]

Great video on founders of Tesla. Lovely.
https://apple.news/AeqjKKi6qQb2kuk7Trs95BA

 

[Words of HABIT]

Oil companies facing the moment of truth.
- European oil companies, BP, Shell and Total, pivoting away from oil and gas to renewable energy.
- US oil companies Exxon Mobil and Chevron are digging in their heals with oil and gas.
They both can't be right.
Who will win?
Hint: in 2020, Exxon was booted out of the DJIA last year and lost $22.4B

Big oil companies are facing the moment of truth. The stakes couldn't be higher - CNN

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

How does that preclude the internal road? The ground floor ceiling is much taller than a semi, and the spacing between posts is much wider.



For standard goods in a trailer, sure. Bulk materials that get unloaded from the side or via gantry crane (steel rolls, aluminum) are less compatible with that setup. Expanding on efficency, the use of shipping containers would allow rapid swapping via crane. Trucks would only be there for the time it takes to switch units. Then the container gets unloaded as needed.

Obviously goods come in with different transportation methods. But Elons not gonna be able to change that most goods will come on semis/containers that are unloaded from the end. There's a reason for this. It saves space. Not sure why you think leaving the container while the truck takes off is expanding on efficiency, that's how it's done at most factories in the world. Take a look at some Shanghai videos. That's how almost every loading dock is used. Which is much easier to handle if it's unloaded straight onto a floor that is level with the rest of the factory.

Is it possible that 'some' transport of gods could be done on trailer and/or container with some specific materials into the inside of the factory? Sure. Especially from the south side where there are still no pillars every 30 feet or so.

Also, when there was talk of an internal loading road one of the reasons given, by Elon himself if I remember correctly, was that they didn't want any loading docks to be visible from the outside. That part they have already given up on.

 

[Words of HABIT]

All this talk of Apple coming out with an EV is rubbish. We all know you can't make a car without Windows.

Seriously, my take is that Apple has no intent of coming out with a "car" to sell to consumers, but rather a "car as a service" to sell to consumers. Apple's driverless EV robotaxi will compete against Waymo's, Tesla's and other robotaxi services when available. With this arrangement for Apple, they only go after the high premium profits, its customers will maintain the Apple customer experience and connectivity where they will control the content of the car and make money on advertising off their car screens to compliment the ride cost itself. Apple's chosen manufacturer (latest rumour is now Nissan instead of KIA/Hyundai) will become irrelevant, as Apple will maintain all control. There will be no bad press on customers servicing their cars as Apple will do all the servicing itself through the manufacturer. No one will scrutinize for panel gaps on cars they do not own. Apple will control the entire narrative of the car and customer experience. And best part for Apple is that they will not compete against Tesla in selling cars, because they already know they are 10 years behind and that Window has now closed.

 

[Lessmog]

All this talk of Apple coming out with an EV is rubbish. We all know you can't make a car without Windows.

Seriously, my take is that Apple has no intent of coming out with a "car" to sell to consumers, but rather a "car as a service" to sell to consumers. Apple's driverless EV robotaxi will compete against Waymo's, Tesla's and other robotaxi services when available. With this arrangement for Apple, they only go after the high premium profits, its customers will maintain the Apple customer experience and connectivity where they will control the content of the car and make money on advertising off their car screens to compliment the ride cost itself. Apple's chosen manufacturer (latest rumour is now Nissan instead of KIA/Hyundai) will become irrelevant, as Apple will maintain all control. There will be no bad press on customers servicing their cars as Apple will do all the servicing itself through the manufacturer. No one will scrutinize for panel gaps on cars they do not own. Apple will control the entire narrative of the car and customer experience. And best part for Apple is that they will not compete against Tesla in selling cars, because they already know they are 10 years behind and that Window has now closed.

You mean Apple will stick to their core i-bis?

 

[Rarity]

The counter argument I have for discounting China long term is the $25,000 Model 2 that is to be built in China for worldwide consumption. That car will be such an important part of China’s exports they cannot afford to give Tesla the google treatment. China’s EV companies can copy that car but they won’t have the global name recognition Tesla has to be able to export their versions of the Model 2 with a high rate of success globally.

There are many arguments for and against the risk. Right now, I'm more concerned that the Chinese will overreact against the Americans and, eventually, the Europeans.

 

[Carl Raymond]

IMHO limiting Tesla usage to robotaxis will slow down the world's transition to sustainable energy.

Maths tells us: that can only be true after the point where the world market for robotaxis is saturated. Until then, a Tesla working all hours will displace more fossil fuels than a Tesla working just a few hours per day.

Yes, we must enjoy this guilt free period of private ownership of electric mobility. It may not last long.

 

[Discoducky]

So, these call options are expiring this coming Friday Feb12th.

But buying a 100 of these isn't that much money

 

[insaneoctane]

I need a little help appreciating Tesla insurance model and upside if someone is willing to explain it... I am being serious.
I got a quote from Tesla that was approximately 30% higher than what I’m paying. Granted, I have both a multi car discount as well as multi policy discount that helps my current price, but I think many do. How exactly is Tesla insurance going to disrupt the industry?

 

[jerry33]

I need a little help appreciating Tesla insurance model and upside if someone is willing to explain it... I am being serious.
I got a quote from Tesla that was approximately 30% higher than what I’m paying. Granted, I have both a multi car discount as well as multi policy discount that helps my current price, but I think many do. How exactly is Tesla insurance going to disrupt the industry?

My understanding is that in many places insurance companies really jack up the price. Also with Tesla's telemetry, they can have better control over the premium to accident frequency ratio so there is the potential for reduced rates compared to other companies. It will be more evident when there are more FSD Teslas out there.

 

[Discoducky]

I need a little help appreciating Tesla insurance model and upside if someone is willing to explain it... I am being serious.
I got a quote from Tesla that was approximately 30% higher than what I’m paying. Granted, I have both a multi car discount as well as multi policy discount that helps my current price, but I think many do. How exactly is Tesla insurance going to disrupt the industry?

TL;DR - Telemetry mitigates risk

I see this as a simple calculation of

A: the cost to repair/replace/refund a bad driver (aka not FSD) over the course of a time period
B: the amount of money that bad driver pays for car insurance.
A<B
Currently B might be higher in some cases than traditional auto insurance, however the cost should continue to go down as the telemetry goes up, therefore the amount of profit you make stays the same and you are able to continue to reduce the price.
Eventually the price goes down far below that of traditional auto insurance while also making bad drivers better (aka safer).