Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lycanthrope]

1 BTC == 1 MY

Sure, but how many Gordons?

 

[HG Wells]

I do believe we will see TSLA pay its first dividend this year.
It will be payed in Bitcoin.

 

[shootformoon]

I am super angry about tesla gambling in bitcoin. Sure, this put me into the minority. But what the hell, this is against everything I put my faith into tesla.

1. bitcoin is a super polluter, climate change, remember that, tsla?

2. bitcoin's main usage is money laundry and pure speculation. It has no value as a monetary system due to volatility and no tax based support system. The 'value' comes from fixed supply but this is a nono for a monetary system. I always think Elon is a decent and caring guy. But did he think about if bitcoin bubble gone, how many small investors would be in pain?

3. tsla raised large sums of money for capacity expansion. It is a shame it uses investor's money into playing a bubble. And accepting bitcoin as payment? They think their accountants have nothing better to do?

I am deeply shocked and shamed. I just sold my shares.
Remember one thing: bitcoin as a thing has no value, or negative value to the human society. Sure, blockchain is revolutionary. But bitcoin's cumbersome design will make it obsolete once all the rosy views out of the picture.
Hope one day Elon fix this problem. I still believe in the climate change mission.

 

[petit_bateau]

Tesla commands nearly a quarter of the world's EV sales in 2020, and it’s still just getting started



Given the higher ASP of Tesla cars, it probably took almost half the total value and the vast majority of profit worldwide.

mmmm ....... I guess folk don't read the BEV competition thread where I post this stuff, like, Tesla BEV Competition Developments

So here is a repost :

Using the EV-Sales recent end-Nov and end-2020 posts :
- EV Sales: 2020 Sales by OEM and
- EV Sales: Global Top 20 - December 2020 and
- EV Sales: Global Top 20 November 2020
plus adding in various other bits of info at model and manufacturer level, and stirring in some errors & assumptions of my own creation I get the following end-2020 outcome:

I have a by-model breakdown for quite a few models, but as a courtesy to EV-Sales I don't see a need to post that here as I don't think it is necessarily relevant for investors. Ideally we could encourage EV-Sales to release a public analysis of this type, if only to save me the effort, and to eliminate some errors that I am likely introducing.

If you see any errors my apologies & please let me know so I can fix them.

An extra fact that I calculated - it seems that Tesla did 1.968 GWh of storage in 2020 so that represents about 5.4% of Tesla's overall cell consumption. I was previously forecasting that Tesla would reach 10% during 2020 but they appear to have started the ramp later than I predicted. I hold 12.5% in my 2021 forecast (9 GWh) so I suspect that I was a tad optimistic when I did that forecast. More likely will be a doubling to 6 GWh (they tend to fall off in Q1, then rise again) and anything over 6 GWh would be a fantastic cell supply solution.

This dataset suggests that Tesla are installing 69 kWh/vehicle with an ARPV of $54k. The Tesla end-year financials give a fairly similar $ number but of course do not give a kWh number.

 

[Johan]

I am super angry about tesla gambling in bitcoin. Sure, this put me into the minority. But what the hell, this is against everything I put my faith into tesla.

1. bitcoin is a super polluter, climate change, remember that, tsla?

2. bitcoin's main usage is money laundry and pure speculation. It has no value as a monetary system due to volatility and no tax based credit system. I always think Elon is a decent guy. But did he think about if bitcoin bubble gone, how many small investors would be in pain?

3. tsla raised large sums of money for capacity expansion. It is a shame it uses investor's money into playing a bubble. And accepting bitcoin as payment? They think their accountants have nothing better to do?

I am deeply shocked and shamed. I just sold my shares. Hope one day Elon fix this problem. I still believe in the climate change mission.

I'm sorry but this just reads like and old grumpy man rant. BTC main usage is not money laundry and it's not a bubble. It is a payment solution and digital currency for the future. Point in case bein that leading tech firm Tesla Motors will start accepting it as payment for their cars.

 

[ZeApelido]

I have the answer to how many bitcoins Tesla owns.

1.5 billion in BTC

Average BTC prices ~ $35,000

I 100% guarantee Tesla purchased at an average price to $35655.708.

That equals 42069 bitcoins.

 

[buttershrimp]

Seems perfectly logical to me, that the PayPal guy might know a thing or two about facilitating payment. And I’m not in Bitcoin but am I wrong that it’s simply a fixed amount of currency, with increasing demand? I don’t see a controversy?

 

[Pezpunk]

I am super angry about tesla gambling in bitcoin. Sure, this put me into the minority. But what the hell, this is against everything I put my faith into tesla.

1. bitcoin is a super polluter, climate change, remember that, tsla?

2. bitcoin's main usage is money laundry and pure speculation. It has no value as a monetary system due to volatility and no tax based credit system. I always think Elon is a decent guy. But did he think about if bitcoin bubble gone, how many small investors would be in pain?

3. tsla raised large sums of money for capacity expansion. It is a shame it uses investor's money into playing a bubble. And accepting bitcoin as payment? They think their accountants have nothing better to do?

I am deeply shocked and shamed. I just sold my shares. Hope one day Elon fix this problem. I still believe in the climate change cause.

1. i somewhat agree with this point. Investing in bitcoin does seem contradictory to the mission of combating climate change.

2. This second point is completely wrong and based on FUD and misinformation. You should re-evaluate your information sources.

3. This point is pretty ignorant too.

as to selling your shares: emotional decisions are rarely good financial decisions.

 

[traxila]

I say 950 EOW.

 

[Lycanthrope]

I'm mad as hell for Tesla buying $BTC, seriously, WTF are they playing at? Everyone knows $DOGE is the future of crypto!

 

[thx1139]

1. i somewhat agree with this point. Investing in bitcoin does seem contradictory to the mission of combating climate change.

2. This second point is completely wrong and based on FUD and misinformation. You should re-evaluate your information sources.

3. This point is pretty ignorant too.

as to selling your shares: emotional decisions are rarely good financial decisions.

Now I dont dabble in Bitcoin. I dont consider it a currency. I consider it a speculative investment.

Now that out of the way, how can something that is virtual (unless I dont understand what Bitcoin is) have anything to do with combating climate change. I have assumed the chatter about mining Bitcoin to just be people joking around.

What am I missing?

 

[X Fan]

WSJ article this morning: Tesla Summoned by Chinese Regulators on Quality Issues

“The State Administration for Market Regulation, China’s top market regulator, said Monday that it had instructed Tesla to abide by Chinese laws and regulations and strengthen internal management to ensure the quality and safety of its products.”

Legit complaint or a Chinese shot across the bow to protect its own car industry and/or reminding Tesla that they hold the cards?

 

[reardencode]

As someone whose invested net worth is split between $TSLA and $BTC ... I'm glad Elon finally started doing the smart thing. Can't hold so much worthless fiat on the balance sheet. Too risky, need more Bitcoin.

 

[HG Wells]

I'm mad as hell for Tesla buying $BTC, seriously, WTF are they playing at? Everyone knows $DOGE is the future of crypto!

I think your right.
Doge up 37% today

 

[Singuy]

WSJ article this morning: Tesla Summoned by Chinese Regulators on Quality Issues

“The State Administration for Market Regulation, China’s top market regulator, said Monday that it had instructed Tesla to abide by Chinese laws and regulations and strengthen internal management to ensure the quality and safety of its products.”

Legit complaint or a Chinese shot across the bow to protect its own car industry and/or reminding Tesla that they hold the cards?

Sounds like what health inspector says to every restaurant they visit.

 

[Pezpunk]

Now I dont dabble in Bitcoin. I dont consider it a currency. I consider it a speculative investment.

Now that out of the way, how can something that is virtual (unless I dont understand what Bitcoin is) have anything to do with combating climate change. I have assumed the chatter about mining Bitcoin to just be people joking around.

What am I missing?

the computational power required to mine bitcoin and maintain the blockchain is enormous. like unfathomably enormous. the energy output dwarfs many real-world nations.

 

[MP3Mike]

If you have 21.000 $TSLA shares - you own, maybe, one of Teslas BTCs.

Assumption -
Tesla shares: 950 million.
BTC: Lets say they bought at $33k ($1.5B), then Tesla has 45.000 BTCs.

You mixing up your decimal and separate characters makes that hard to make sense of...

 

[Rarity]

oh for crying out loud. YES BITCOIN IS DISRUPTIVE. Well done, but that doesn't make it environmentally sustainable does it? Yet again, the bitcoin bulls are determined to paint anybody who disagrees with them as stupid. No cult is as fanatical and insulting as the crypto cult.

I think I agree with you, cliffski. But I think we investors owe Musk a friendly hearing to make his case on BTC and Tesla's part in it.

Musk changed his mind. I'm very curious as to why. Some of his closest friends like Bill Lee have been big into cryptocurrencies since forever. But they haven't convinced him. Until now.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I know this is not related to this thread but with the Bitcoin thing so prevalent there seems to be some knowledge here that can enlighten me.

I can not figure out how this whole Bitcoin thing works. The explanations online just confuse me more. How does this stuff work? Some argue that it is a threat to the environment. How? I am completely at a loss for how this move by Tesla is either positive or negative...other than I guess you will be able to buy a Tesla with the stuff.

Dan

 

[2daMoon]

What about the 3 barrels of oil it takes to mine one Bitcoin?

Would this oil be used to lubricate the hydro-electric generators that most bitcoin miners locate around in order to take advantage of lower renewable energy costs that help eek out profits from their very, very narrow margins?