Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This is how other companies with >$500 billion market cap trade. We truly have become a boomer stock, but at the magnitude of our market cap combined with being an S&P 500 component this shouldn't be surprising.
I've continued to dip my toes into covered calls while researching. This period of stability is a good time to practice as I really want to be able to consistently generate income so I can retire!
BornToFly
Supporting Member
I have been selling Puts and covered calls that are about 20% off the current SP for the last couple months. Usually going 2-4 weeks out. This gives the ability to roll to a different strike and later date if the SP moves more than 20%. As IV drops, income will drop, but still making over $30k/ month so far (portfolio is large enough to sell 30 contracts of each without pushing margin limits should I be assigned shares on my Puts, etc. if I don't roll in time).
OMG, I sound like a care bear
I would be too with all my cash money tied up in Tesla.
Lycanthrope
S3XY old dude
You should never put your feet on the dash, like that. If there's an accident and the airbags go off then you'll get badly injured.
Edit: OK, I'm at least the third person to point this out, but cannot be stated enough times how dangerous it is
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Lycanthrope
S3XY old dude
So lets say I'm comparing them on their specs. I'll save $90 bucks to get the Audi or spend $45k *MORE* to get the Porsche.
*ALL* the specs favor the Plaid+. Who is buying the Audi or the Porsche? They will get blown away.
View attachment 635435
Edit: My 8 year old daughter is laughing as I type this as she created the spreadsheet
There will be some loyal to a brand that will always buy the Audi or the Porsche.
There be some who are anti-Tesla (for whatever reason), who will buy anything-but-Tesla.
There will be some that prefer the older-school interior design.
There will be some that prefer the higher-quality of interior that Audi and Porsche offer compared to Tesla, more luxurious, if you want to call it that, I don't, but we had this discussion last week already...
Should we redefine the higher quality of interior?
Tesla Model 3 earns ‘Recommended Car of the Year’ title in China for its health-conscious interior | TESLARATI
I've been an investor in TSLA longer than Gary Black, will likely own longer than he. I was however surprised that he sold out. I think he raises some points that need to be considered. Having said that, I follow my own drum and not his or others.
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1359096279071150083
1. I'm fine with them calling it 500K delivered. Sure they missed, but in the grand scheme of things they continue to execute.
2. EPS miss? I'm not an accountant, tough to judge. On one hand I drink the Kool-Aid and want to trust execs, on the other I've been burned by that before. Reasons given are all understandable. TSLA in high growth mode. I bet they could act in short term interest to pump EPS any time they want, I'd rather they grow like crazy, sacrifice now for the future. I hope that is what happening.
3. FY21 guidance? I think they generally guide low to start years and higher to finish. 50% yr over yr growth affirmed. I'm good with this. If they are sandbagging, and have great new S/X product, Gary might eat his words. Are they sandbagging? Either way, I'm really ok.
4. Bitcoin! OMG, I got no darn clue on this asset. I wonder if his flight to Ellis Island was to discuss this. By history I trust Elon. I do not invest in Bitcoins as I can't do any analysis that lets me sleep at night. I have a tough time with this investment but not such that I want to sell out of my stock.
5. Red flag call? So all the "delays" not addressed, if these were so important, wouldn't they be asked about? Were they asked and answers ducked? I was not keenly aware of CT or Berlin delay, recall issues (me thinks they were long expected and mr black said so his self). I think it comes down to "it's the batteries stupid". When they have enough they will sell.
I want to well consider what bright minds of finance think of TSLA. I want to be aware of errors in thinking and might be smoothing my thoughts to the situations, or even looking back and changing how I think of new scenarios. The reasons we invested in TSLA remain, we expect to hold for a very long time.
As a spectator sport, this is fascinating to watch. Having typed this, I will go back to sitting on my hands ( and silently cheer for bitcoin)
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1359096279071150083
1. I'm fine with them calling it 500K delivered. Sure they missed, but in the grand scheme of things they continue to execute.
2. EPS miss? I'm not an accountant, tough to judge. On one hand I drink the Kool-Aid and want to trust execs, on the other I've been burned by that before. Reasons given are all understandable. TSLA in high growth mode. I bet they could act in short term interest to pump EPS any time they want, I'd rather they grow like crazy, sacrifice now for the future. I hope that is what happening.
3. FY21 guidance? I think they generally guide low to start years and higher to finish. 50% yr over yr growth affirmed. I'm good with this. If they are sandbagging, and have great new S/X product, Gary might eat his words. Are they sandbagging? Either way, I'm really ok.
4. Bitcoin! OMG, I got no darn clue on this asset. I wonder if his flight to Ellis Island was to discuss this. By history I trust Elon. I do not invest in Bitcoins as I can't do any analysis that lets me sleep at night. I have a tough time with this investment but not such that I want to sell out of my stock.
5. Red flag call? So all the "delays" not addressed, if these were so important, wouldn't they be asked about? Were they asked and answers ducked? I was not keenly aware of CT or Berlin delay, recall issues (me thinks they were long expected and mr black said so his self). I think it comes down to "it's the batteries stupid". When they have enough they will sell.
I want to well consider what bright minds of finance think of TSLA. I want to be aware of errors in thinking and might be smoothing my thoughts to the situations, or even looking back and changing how I think of new scenarios. The reasons we invested in TSLA remain, we expect to hold for a very long time.
As a spectator sport, this is fascinating to watch. Having typed this, I will go back to sitting on my hands ( and silently cheer for bitcoin)
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Yer kidding right? Gary freakin' sold out, now he's trying to jaw-bone the stock down so he can buy back in. No better than TSLAQ in my opinion, just done in the reverse order.
Don't overthink it. Gary's an opportunist that is going to get burned by FOMO.
HODL.
I disagree with your characterization of GB. It is not all us or them, black or white. I take GB at his word.
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
So, do I need to quote his tweet where he says he wants to buy back in after the SP goes down, or did you see it already?
I agree.
He was open from the beginning in how/when he invests in TSLA.
He tweeted everyone that he would exit his position if Tesla would have BTC on their balance sheet. And he did!
Why being upset if someone is consistent in his investment? He also kept his price target near $1000 for the coming 6 months.
You don't have to agree with his thesis.
Someone said it nicely: you live by the word, you die by the sword. Gary sticks to his principles
Me personally... still not 100% convinced if BTC was the right choice; still a gut wrenching feeling with this movement. Probably triggered by a lack of understanding. It gives a more 'bubble'-feel to me. Pure personal opinion, no facts to back this up.
Wasn't there any better way to invest this money?
Short & Long-term for the SP, I keep faith in the fact knowing that Biden will re-instate EV-subsidies. Berlin/Texas/Shangai ramping up. Semi/Cybertruck/ (model 2) release this year. (Still not convinced with Tesla achieving L5 this year; but merely personal opinion. No facts to back it up) Credit-rating upgrades, analyst upgrades. I don't have any reasons yet to sell my Tesla shares.
You are welcome to any perception you choose or accept.
I will try and buy if the price goes down also.
MMD gets thrown about here regularly. Does that make people bears? Fudsters? TSLAQ?
There is no question that what Elon has accomplished repeatedly requires genius.
and equally important he is a great human being.
When he is raised to the level of demi-god on this board, it starts feeling
like idolatry. In the least as shareholders we deserve an explanation
On why investing in Bitcoin makes economic sense.
He said he would sell if they bought BTC. And he lived up to that. Fine. But then he says he would buy back in at a lower price. I suspect Tesla will still own BTC at that point. So...he’s using BTC as an excuse to sell now but okay with it later? He’s a trader, not an investor. I’m just glad all Tesla shareholders don’t think like him to sell at “headwinds”. Tesla would have gone under long ago.
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
No, as I clearly stated, it is the act of TRYING TO JAWBONE the stock down after selling that is reprehensible. And TSLAQ grade cringeworthy.
Probably different perspective for ARK investors already holding GBTC through ARK ETFs. Read the report for 2021 ARK Research and already convinced to take a position. Selling TSLA because you don’t understand position or only believe in government controlled fiat money which have all failed through the ages is a bit short sighted in my opinion.
Stopped following Gary Black after the 15-20% post S&P500 inclusion TSLA dip he called didn’t happen and will not follow him on this one neither.
One thing that I have to say is that Gary was more correct about the SP at the inclusion date than most people here that were predicting 1000+ SP. I think his target was $650 or $750.
Lets move on.
Lets move on.
Lycanthrope
S3XY old dude
I'm no bright mind, but...
1) Incredibly foolish for anyone to characterise 2020 deliveries as a "miss" - Tesla maintained the same guidance pre and post C19 shutdown, which was ridiculed at the time, but incredibly bullish
2) EPS miss? Do Tesla guide EPS? No they do not, it's an artificial number made-up to by WS to cause volatility. Musk stated many times they're targeting minimal profits, FCF and growth are all that matter now
3) 2021 guidance is exactly as stated previously - Tesla expect to grow ~50% yoy, Musk already stated that 2021 should be higher than that
4) BTC - who cares seriously?
5) Delays? Can anyone here, and I think we are the most knowledgeable group around, state any knows delays...?
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Not quite so fast. I predicted $671 SP post-inclusion based on a simple micro-economics model, and based on 6-mths of real market pricing data (including the ACTUAL effects of short selling):
Model of Supply and Demand for TSLA shares | Dec 15, 2020
The other folks here blindly followed the 'infinity-squeeze' supposition (which I also debunked extensively to little effect). People believe what they want to believe (esp. wrt $$), and HATE changing their minds (esp. when confronted by evidence)
Bonus point: NOT A SINGLE SOUL on this board asked about the model's predicted SP move caused by a short-covering rally (after Dec 31 Short Interest came out). No discussion ensued. No thought given. Opportunity lost.
People prefer to follow preceived guru's rather than do the math themselves. Especially when they don't like the answers, and a more attractive answer is offered w/o explanation (esp. by twitter randos).
Cheers!
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