Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

Not quite so fast. I predicted $671 SP post-inclusion based on a simple micro-economics model, and based on 6-mths of real market pricing data (including the ACTUAL effects of short selling):

Model of Supply and Demand for TSLA shares | Dec 15, 2020​

The other folks here blindly followed the 'infinity-squeeze' supposition (which I also debunked extensively to little effect). People believe what they want to believe (esp. wrt $$), and HATE changing their minds (esp. when confronted by evidence)

Bonus point: NOT A SINGLE SOUL on this board asked about the model's predicted SP move caused by a short-covering rally (after Dec 31 Short Interest came out). No discussion ensued. No thought given. Opportunity lost.

People prefer to follow preceived guru's rather than do the math themselves. Especially when they don't like the answers, and a more attractive answer is offered w/o explanation (esp. by twitter randos).

Cheers!

I did not say you were saying that we would see 1000+ SP at the inclusion. You know I love you .

Yeah many of us follow people blindly and many people got burn buying crazy high strike price options. The same situation happened with the short squeeze of century; people get too optimistic and we get the timeline wrong. We all have done well with TSLA so far and as long term Tesla holders we know we will do even better.

 

[st_lopes]

Not quite so fast. I predicted $671 SP post-inclusion based on a simple micro-economics model, and based on 6-mths of real market pricing data (including the ACTUAL effects of short selling):

Model of Supply and Demand for TSLA shares | Dec 15, 2020​

The other folks here blindly followed the 'infinity-squeeze' supposition (which I also debunked extensively to little effect). People believe what they want to believe (esp. wrt $$), and HATE changing their minds (esp. when confronted by evidence)

Bonus point: NOT A SINGLE SOUL on this board asked about the model's predicted SP move caused by a short-covering rally (after Dec 31 Short Interest came out). No discussion ensued. No thought given. Opportunity lost.

People prefer to follow preceived guru's rather than do the math themselves. Especially when they don't like the answers, and a more attractive answer is offered w/o explanation (esp. by twitter randos).

Cheers!

Amen.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Maybe I was not very clear about why AMD will allocate 100k GPUs(or maybe APUs) to Tesla even though they are expecting chip shortages 1H of the year(they guided 2H to be more lax)

1. AMD is extremely committed to their partnership, especially to a new brand like Tesla. So far Tesla/AMD still have yet to formally announce their partnership. And AMD stocks have been trading nothing but flat and we see this as a catalyst. I remember 2 years ago AMD would go on and on about partnering with Atari to make the VCS(and us shareholders are like who the hell cares). So just think about how much mindshare AMD is trying to win with Tesla as their partner.

2. AMD made almost 10 million next gen console chips in 2 quarters. These are low margin products at around 25%. AMD will bend over backwards selling chips to Tesla at a much higher margin as stock analyst crap on their margins being almost 10% lower than industry standard(mostly due to consoles).

3. Because AMD can pump out a few million of these chips per quarter, sending 20k of these higher margin chips to Tesla per quarter wouldn't even matter to their logistics.

AMD Mkt cap 110.12B - 1000 times more than buying Tesla Grohmann Automation - Wikipedia

"Tesla AMD" has a nice ring to it.

Tesla buying suppliers/skilled enablers makes more sense than buying legacy ICE. Bit expensive though.

 

[ZeApelido]

OT:

This might be one of the greatest videos of all time. I am dying.

Spoiler

"I'm prepared to go forward."

"I'm here live, I'm not a cat"

 

[Discoducky]

There will be some loyal to a brand that will always buy the Audi or the Porsche.

There be some who are anti-Tesla (for whatever reason), who will buy anything-but-Tesla.

There will be some that prefer the older-school interior design.

There will be some that prefer the higher-quality of interior that Audi and Porsche offer compared to Tesla, more luxurious, if you want to call it that, I don't, but we had this discussion last week already...

Sure, bringing either of those cars to the track, stating those reasons over buying a Plaid+ and you'll get laughed at...by everyone.

I understood with Taycan prior to Plaid+ being available, but now it is sheer brand loyalty. And yes, I get your points and they are valid...except at the track and that is what these cars are made for...plain and simple.

Here's to hoping there will be competition in the future, but I've been waiting nearly a decade since my first S.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The chip shortage is real and pretty severe. Microchip, which makes a huge number of random parts used in all sorts of things, put out a letter explaining the situation to their customers a few days ago. They say the shortage could continue into 2022. You can details read here:

https://www.microchip.com/content/d...ip-Regarding-Capacity-and-Supply-Feb-2021.pdf

Implications for Tesla/Legacy ICE:-

1. Just In Time - isn't
2. Tesla being confident probably led to keeping orders - Tesla may be prioritised/trusted
3. Legacy ICE panic cancelled, puts them near back of the queue
4. Legacy ICE need to order for long time periods
5. Suppliers won't strategically order without Legacy ICE guarantees. Vertical/short supply chain wins again.
6. Any unexpected reduction in demand (Covid19 or switch to EVs limited by cells) leaves them with stock
7. My guess is that Legacy ICE Pointy Haired Bosses (and particularly their subsystem suppliers) will be low-high-low-high undependable customers with too little or too much stock (getting out of date) - another pressure on Legacy ICE

Quote:
"we would like to introduce the Microchip Preferred Supply Program (PSP) and offer you the option to receive prioritized capacity in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. The Preferred Supply Program has the following elements: • 12 months of continuous, non-cancellable and non-reschedulable backlog • Capacity priority will be for the second 6 months of the next 12-month period—not the first 6 months. While not a guarantee of supply we will most certainly place our highest priority on those that work with us within this program. • Capacity priority allocation will be made on a first-come, first-served basis until the available capacity is allocated which we expect is likely to happen by the end of February. To make PSP work we need your engagement now. We are committed to your success and we believe that this program will give you an advantage to build on during these times of very constrained capacity. We ask all of our customers to immediately place their 12-month non-cancellable non-reschedulable backlog on Microchip"

 

[Nocturnal]

Sure, bringing either of those cars to the track, stating those reasons over buying a Plaid+ and you'll get laughed at...by everyone.

I understood with Taycan prior to Plaid+ being available, but now it is sheer brand loyalty. And yes, I get your points and they are valid...except at the track and that is what these cars are made for...plain and simple.

Here's to hoping there will be competition in the future, but I've been waiting nearly a decade since my first S.

Yup. There will always be fanboys. Current S isn't useful for the road course but Plaid (at least the plus?) resolves that. Even my model 3 has just enough juice for a track night event. Without superchargers at the track the Taycan can't even do that.

When I do get my Roadster or Plaid+ I'll need to hire a coach and increase my driving skills. I do ok with the 3 for a novice but those cars will be next level.

 

[lafrisbee]

OT:

This might be one of the greatest videos of all time. I am dying.

Spoiler

"I'm prepared to go forward."

"I'm here live, I'm not a cat"

Kugerand (sp)?

 

[Phobi]

Giga Berlin battery factory status: Tesla Giga Berlin 4680 Battery Production Could Launch in Just 2 Years, Says Minister of Economy Steinbach

Expecting it to be less than 2 years...

 

[lafrisbee]

Implications for Tesla/Legacy ICE:-

1. Just In Time - isn't
2. Tesla being confident probably led to keeping orders - Tesla may be prioritised/trusted
3. Legacy ICE panic cancelled, puts them near back of the queue
4. Legacy ICE need to order for long time periods
5. Suppliers won't strategically order without Legacy ICE guarantees. Vertical/short supply chain wins again.
6. Any unexpected reduction in demand (Covid19 or switch to EVs limited by cells) leaves them with stock
7. My guess is that Legacy ICE Pointy Haired Bosses (and particularly their subsystem suppliers) will be low-high-low-high undependable customers with too little or too much stock (getting out of date) - another pressure on Legacy ICE

Quote:
"we would like to introduce the Microchip Preferred Supply Program (PSP) and offer you the option to receive prioritized capacity in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. The Preferred Supply Program has the following elements: • 12 months of continuous, non-cancellable and non-reschedulable backlog • Capacity priority will be for the second 6 months of the next 12-month period—not the first 6 months. While not a guarantee of supply we will most certainly place our highest priority on those that work with us within this program. • Capacity priority allocation will be made on a first-come, first-served basis until the available capacity is allocated which we expect is likely to happen by the end of February. To make PSP work we need your engagement now. We are committed to your success and we believe that this program will give you an advantage to build on during these times of very constrained capacity. We ask all of our customers to immediately place their 12-month non-cancellable non-reschedulable backlog on Microchip"

So Redneck Speak:
Ya screwed with us, and it hurt. We need you to clearly understand who is incharge here. Tell your bean-counters to behave, or be willing to pay quite a bit more for the chips.... I didn't think so.

 

[Unpilot]

(esp. by twitter randos).

He He...can I steal that one?

 

[MABMAB]

So, do I need to quote his tweet where he says he wants to buy back in after the SP goes down, or did you see it already?

Another thing one (ok myself) needs consider is that perhaps GB is just more in tune with the market. Perhaps he was correct?

 

[Big Time]

Personal news: Just got back from working 15 days in sunny/rainy/tornado Super Bowl LV. Now back in frigid MN for some shut-in fun via cribbage/chess/watching the ticker.

Tesla news: what is going on? I have been able to sort of look at my phone last few weeks mainly on Twitter couldn’t find time to read the forum. Seen it go up to 870 and fall back down to 850 many times. Is this consolidation? What is happening today. Thanks for updates!!!

 

[Hrtme]

I've been an investor in TSLA longer than Gary Black, will likely own longer than he. I was however surprised that he sold out. I think he raises some points that need to be considered. Having said that, I follow my own drum and not his or others.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1359096279071150083

1. I'm fine with them calling it 500K delivered. Sure they missed, but in the grand scheme of things they continue to execute.

2. EPS miss? I'm not an accountant, tough to judge. On one hand I drink the Kool-Aid and want to trust execs, on the other I've been burned by that before. Reasons given are all understandable. TSLA in high growth mode. I bet they could act in short term interest to pump EPS any time they want, I'd rather they grow like crazy, sacrifice now for the future. I hope that is what happening.

3. FY21 guidance? I think they generally guide low to start years and higher to finish. 50% yr over yr growth affirmed. I'm good with this. If they are sandbagging, and have great new S/X product, Gary might eat his words. Are they sandbagging? Either way, I'm really ok.

4. Bitcoin! OMG, I got no darn clue on this asset. I wonder if his flight to Ellis Island was to discuss this. By history I trust Elon. I do not invest in Bitcoins as I can't do any analysis that lets me sleep at night. I have a tough time with this investment but not such that I want to sell out of my stock.

5. Red flag call? So all the "delays" not addressed, if these were so important, wouldn't they be asked about? Were they asked and answers ducked? I was not keenly aware of CT or Berlin delay, recall issues (me thinks they were long expected and mr black said so his self). I think it comes down to "it's the batteries stupid". When they have enough they will sell.


I want to well consider what bright minds of finance think of TSLA. I want to be aware of errors in thinking and might be smoothing my thoughts to the situations, or even looking back and changing how I think of new scenarios. The reasons we invested in TSLA remain, we expect to hold for a very long time.

As a spectator sport, this is fascinating to watch. Having typed this, I will go back to sitting on my hands ( and silently cheer for bitcoin)

Selling at the top isn't selling out, it's cashing in on gains and is smart. Those big numbers aren't real gains until you sell. Most people realize the speculation bubble is as big as its going to get until it starts filling with actual value. Even Elon has trouble figuring out how the stock valuation could everatxh the actual value of tesla as a current or future company.

 

[Unpilot]

Personal news: Just got back from working 15 days in sunny/rainy/tornado Super Bowl LV. Now back in frigid MN for some shut-in fun via cribbage/chess/watching the ticker.

Tesla news: what is going on? I have been able to sort of look at my phone last few weeks mainly on Twitter couldn’t find time to read the forum. Seen it go up to 870 and fall back down to 850 many times. Is this consolidation? What is happening today. Thanks for updates!!!

Bitcoin...bad...good...
Gary black...bad...good.
Chip shortage...bad...no issue
New EV stimulus...great...may not happen.
Competition coming....LOL..ok not that one.

 

[Alphacrux]

Classic MMD right now?

 

[elasalle]

BTC, TSLA both down 2%

 

[corduroy]

Bitcoin...bad...good...
Gary black...bad...good.
Chip shortage...bad...no issue
New EV stimulus...great...may not happen.
Competition coming....LOL..ok not that one.

Could you please do a summary like that every week, it would save me about 5 hours browsing this thread.

 

[Nocturnal]

If Elon could drop some news about FSD rollout or the 25k car that would be great. I don't really have much cash laying around that I want to devote to a dip.

Selling at the top isn't selling out, it's cashing in on gains and is smart. Those big numbers aren't real gains until you sell. Most people realize the speculation bubble is as big as its going to get until it starts filling with actual value. Even Elon has trouble figuring out how the stock valuation could everatxh the actual value of tesla as a current or future company.

That's not true IMO. On the earnings call he broke down how he sees the current value making sense.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Selling at the top isn't selling out, it's cashing in on gains and is smart. Those big numbers aren't real gains until you sell. Most people realize the speculation bubble is as big as its going to get until it starts filling with actual value. Even Elon has trouble figuring out how the stock valuation could everatxh the actual value of tesla as a current or future company.

Smart for 'selling at the top'? Yeah, don't we all want that... Hindsight is 20/20. The hard part is determining that top. Were the people selling at the top at 900 pre-split, 1800 pre-split, 500 post-split and 690 post-split also smart?

As for Gary Black, he got lucky selling on Monday in the 870 range (Thanks to Bitcoin!! The irony. Before the news came out the stock was at 845 pre-market). And after selling he turned like a leaf on Tesla's prospects for this year, completely contradicting what he has been saying for the past few weeks. I understand: he needed to find a justification, as he must have realized the Bitcoin excuse wasn't very strong. Now let's see if he turns to the dark side. We've seen it happen all too often to people who sold, especially if they later find out they were wrong.