Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Uhhh. This is hard to watch as first day back paying attention to markets.

oh well, hope it doesn’t fall under 800.
HODL

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Y'all wanted some volume; well, there you go.

Note that when the Qs last traded at this level was Friday morning, when TSLA was at 840. There has been selling with the macros in TSLA's favor, and with the market dumping it's accelerated.

Hopefully that means the same for the recovery, as this is now a 10% correction. But have we seen the bottom?

 

[mickificki]

Uhhh. This is hard to watch as first day back paying attention to markets.

oh well, hope it doesn’t fall under 800.
HODL

maybe you can get ready for next years super bowl in LA

 

[cricketman]

Today I've bought 6 more TSLA shares and half a bitcoin

If Elon is confident in bitcoin then so am I. Who knows more than the founder of PayPal?

 

[Hock1]

All of QQQ dropping hard. Any news?

Let's see is lower BB 806 holds.

Regardless of why the stock might be tanking, there will be a day of reckoning for all the call buyers and (even more so) the put sellers. Is now the time? I don't know, but eventually it will happen. All that "free money" given back and maybe more. Painful.

 

[H Mak]

Just added some funds to my trading account to pick off some more shares if it dips below $800.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Anybody else buying this MMMD? (Massive MMD)? Bought a few more. I hope that’s the bounce starting. Edit: Test drove the Y yesterday. Loved the car, but hated the tight steering, even on comfort. Drove like a tank. Much tighter than my 2015 S70D.

I made the mistake of placing my order below $800. Oh well, next time....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Y'all wanted some volume; well, there you go.

Note that when the Qs last traded at this level was Friday morning, when TSLA was at 840. There has been selling with the macros in TSLA's favor, and with the market dumping it's accelerated.

Hopefully that means the same for the recovery, as this is now a 10% correction. But have we seen the bottom?

The main thing to watch here is it holding the 806 line at close. It ends lower than that on the day, probably more downside. A lot volume in each time the stock hit that 805-810 level.

 

[2daMoon]

I've flipped the couch, shook the aych-ee-double toothpicks out of it and all I found was lint, popcorn kernels, and some lost cat toys underneath.

How disappointing it is to miss out on these Sale prices.

HODL At least we're getting some volume today.

 

[trayloader]

The fact that BLACKROCK now owns 5% of Tesla, 50million shares summing up to ~42 billion, keeps me awake at night ATM.
That´s much more than Ron Baron et al. ever had. If blackrock coughes, Tesla shows a lung inflammation.
The uphill race last year seems to be caused in part by their strategic moves.
Their way of "running companies" conflicts with Elons ethos, just my 5c.

 

[henchman24]

Personally, I only see the issues that GB mentions as temporary. Tesla probably kept vague guidance because the chip shortage may impact them, and as we well know a very small miss (even with Covid) shutdowns creates expectations. Q1 production will be the first signal on if they were sandbagging or not. If that is low (under 180k), we could see a sharp pullback. The Bitcoin part will either be a changing of the tide or a nothing burger long-term. It is a lot of money for us, but considering how much Tesla had sitting and how they can't realistically spend that... I'm more or less okay with it. If Bitcoin goes to 60k, they look like geniuses. If it drops to 10k, they look like idiots, but really won't hurt the company long-term (they've made worse decisions and survived). The earnings miss and the reasons behind why seem plausible to me, and really they are still making money when most of the mainstream analysts expected them to (they all just kept raising targets until it wasn't hit). If this miss keeps happening, it is concerning. A one off when they've beat earnings the previous 5 quarters, not worried... especially with Elon's compensation structure impacts.

FSD take rates are probably the most concerning thing. That is where some of the bigger valuations really take over and clarity on that would be helpful. The low take rate in China is concerning and the lack of clarity on the monthly subscription is noticeable. The timing there is a big lever one way or another. If they release FSD subscription with a wider roll out in March (like I think most of us believe will happen), the stock is going to jump. If we don't hear anything and it delays until this fall, we will see a drop until there is a positive catalyst.

 

[15Peter20]

Personally, I only see the issues that GB mentions as temporary. Tesla probably kept vague guidance because the chip shortage may impact them, and as we well know a very small miss (even with Covid) shutdowns creates expectations. Q1 production will be the first signal on if they were sandbagging or not. If that is low (under 180k), we could see a sharp pullback. The Bitcoin part will either be a changing of the tide or a nothing burger long-term. It is a lot of money for us, but considering how much Tesla had sitting and how they can't realistically spend that... I'm more or less okay with it. If Bitcoin goes to 60k, they look like geniuses. If it drops to 10k, they look like idiots, but really won't hurt the company long-term (they've made worse decisions and survived). The earnings miss and the reasons behind why seem plausible to me, and really they are still making money when most of the mainstream analysts expected them to (they all just kept raising targets until it wasn't hit). If this miss keeps happening, it is concerning. A one off when they've beat earnings the previous 5 quarters, not worried... especially with Elon's compensation structure impacts.

FSD take rates are probably the most concerning thing. That is where some of the bigger valuations really take over and clarity on that would be helpful. The low take rate in China is concerning and the lack of clarity on the monthly subscription is noticeable. The timing there is a big lever one way or another. If they release FSD subscription with a wider roll out in March (like I think most of us believe will happen), the stock is going to jump. If we don't hear anything and it delays until this fall, we will see a drop until there is a positive catalyst.

I think FSD needs to show promise outside of the USA. At the moment, here in the UK, consensus is that it is nowhere near worth the money.

Once beta is widespread in the US and Tesla can start to look at how it integrates into other countries' road systems maybe the take rate will increase.

For now, there are too many issues with TACC and autosteer to give any confidence or incentive to purchase other than a veiled threat that 'prices are likely to increase'.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The main thing to watch here is it holding the 806 line at close. It ends lower than that on the day, probably more downside. A lot volume in each time the stock hit that 805-810 level.

And of course Tesla isn't following the macros back up. Whenever it gets knocked down like this harshly when the macro's are only slightly down, it always gets capped on the recovery.

 

[Nocturnal]

The fact that BLACKROCK now owns 5% of Tesla, 50million shares summing up to ~42 billion, keeps me awake at night ATM.
That´s much more than Ron Baron et al. ever had. If blackrock coughes, Tesla shows a lung inflammation.
The uphill race last year seems to be caused in part by their strategic moves.
Their way of "running companies" conflicts with Elons ethos, just my 5c.

I doubt they will. Blackrock has repeatedly mentioned how important climate change is to their fund. Even if they do, that doesn't change Tesla's potential.

 

[vwman111]

I was able to save a bit and add 4 more shares to the pot. Special Day

 

[Stone_Watcher]

I've flipped the couch, shook the aych-ee-double toothpicks out of it and all I found was lint, popcorn kernels, and some lost cat toys underneath.

How disappointing it is to miss out on these Sale prices.

HODL At least we're getting some volume today.

I ran out of money too and had to settle for selling Friday $650 puts.

Where do you guys get your couches from? Mine appears to be acting up.

 

[henchman24]

I think FSD needs to show promise outside of the USA. At the moment, here in the UK, consensus is that it is nowhere near worth the money.

Once beta is widespread in the US and Tesla can start to look at how it integrates into other countries' road systems maybe the take rate will increase.

For now, there are too many issues with TACC and autosteer to give any confidence or incentive to purchase other than a veiled threat that 'prices are likely to increase'.

For me personally, it isn't worth the money in the US right now. Not being on the beta and my car has enhanced autopilot already... i don't see the case (right now) to upgrade to it. Now I have it on my Cybertruck order because I wanted to be locked in at the lower rate and maybe when I get mine in late 2022 it will be up and going.

 

[Paracelsus]

Great point by @Right_Said_Fred. Taking it one step further......TSLA was trading near 870, and the internet has been abuzz with anticipation that TSLA will lift off this coming Monday when Biden is rumored to unveil his plan towards a more sustainable future - which should restore Tesla EV tax credits, and perhaps more importantly IMO that plan will unveil a transition in the energy grid for which Tesla Energy is best poised to dominate all others. This is TM and TE’s moment, and the stage is set. ARK Funds carrying similar disruption stocks are roaring ahead.....and despite the likelihood that many institutional investors have not yet solidified a TSLA position following SP500 inclusion, the stock price is creeping upwards towards another breakout point that could result in a run to 1200 with retail investors sensing FOMO. However.........Max Pain for Friday is 850.

And let me repeat what @Artful Dodger reminds us of all the time - “many institutional investors have not yet solidified a TSLA position following SP500 inclusion”

And with the MM’s about to get crushed this Friday, a popular TSLA ‘pied piper’ on Twitter (Gary) sells his position at what is likely the most ridiculous timing in recent history.....and also at a price that coincidentally ends up being a near-term high. And then he proceeds to throw a very public temper tantrum over issues all irrelevant to next week’s anticipated Yuuuge news from Biden. And coincidentally TSLA share price falls below Max Pain, and also back in to a range that would benefit MMs and the institutional investors that need to get on board prior to Biden’s plan unveil.

This is all purely speculation/opinion based on watching TSLA for years (disclaimer) - but what I find most dangerous for retail investors isn’t clowns like Chanos or Gordy at this point. Their ships have sailed and they will forever be recorded as being on the wrong side of one of the most exciting stories of our time. I feel at this point the most damage can be done to retail investors by ‘false prophets’ - those that carefully build a large following of retail investors by coming onto the scene with excessive TSLA fanboy messages that are presented from a position of a higher profile successful/experienced investor......and then these charlatans make a very unpredictable move at a most unpredictable time in a most visible manner - and ultimately that results in allowing MMs to to avoid losses and institutions to acquire more shares in an all too timely manner as well.

Taken individually, all of the individual ‘Gary’ events seem strange. But when viewed from the 50,000 foot level and from the perspective of history now, my gut doesn’t like it. I don’t follow Ihor anymore after many people here (and people no longer here) pointed out that his Short Interest numbers were occasionally incorrect at unusual times, and I will no longer follow Gary as the events of this week make me personally question his larger motives. At this moment it is Tesla Energy that should be the core discussion for next week’s unveiling from an informed person representing themselves as understanding the larger view of TSLA, not TSLA/BTC. This is purely my opinion.

 

[Nocturnal]

I ran out of money too and had to settle for selling Friday $650 puts.

Where do you guys get your couches from? Mine appears to be acting up.

You need to kick it more.

 

[NooB_cat]

Relevant news just in!
"Tesla’s advanced Autopilot, FSD features to find home in Germany as gov’t allows Lvl 4 autonomy"

Tesla's advanced Autopilot, FSD features to find home in Germany as gov't allows Lvl 4 autonomy

I think FSD needs to show promise outside of the USA. At the moment, here in the UK, consensus is that it is nowhere near worth the money.

Once beta is widespread in the US and Tesla can start to look at how it integrates into other countries' road systems maybe the take rate will increase.

For now, there are too many issues with TACC and autosteer to give any confidence or incentive to purchase other than a veiled threat that 'prices are likely to increase'.