Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DrJohnM]

My daughter provided some background:

I [she] was baffled by Tesla's rapid drop today and decided to probe a little deeper. I soon stumbled on this article: Is This Why Tesla Just Plunged? | ZeroHedge - it seems someone bought 223,000 way OTM Tesla puts with a $20 strike for March. After reading it, I immediately remembered that I had recently (6th Feb) seen a tweet posted by Michael Burry (of the big short) regarding delta-gamma hedging: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1357829213357711360. As most are aware, Burry is vocally short on Tesla.

In the article he links it says:

a) If NOPE is high negative — This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.

Hello friends!



Burry was also tweeting about FSD earlier, so he was clearly doing some research. Maybe he wanted to try out this method of buying OTM puts in order to encourage market makers to sell off shares so that he could cover his short position? Maybe he just wanted to see if it works?



I don't know but the entire thing seems really off to me. Please let me know what you think.

 

[vikings123]

My daughter provided some background:

I [she] was baffled by Tesla's rapid drop today and decided to probe a little deeper. I soon stumbled on this article: Is This Why Tesla Just Plunged? | ZeroHedge - it seems someone bought 223,000 way OTM Tesla puts with a $20 strike for March. After reading it, I immediately remembered that I had recently (6th Feb) seen a tweet posted by Michael Burry (of the big short) regarding delta-gamma hedging: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1357829213357711360. As most are aware, Burry is vocally short on Tesla.

In the article he links it says:

a) If NOPE is high negative — This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.

Hello friends!



Burry was also tweeting about FSD earlier, so he was clearly doing some research. Maybe he wanted to try out this method of buying OTM puts in order to encourage market makers to sell off shares so that he could cover his short position? Maybe he just wanted to see if it works?



I don't know but the entire thing seems really off to me. Please let me know what you think.

Options with such low deltas literally have zero impact on the share price. The big put purchase is likely someone trying to avoid margin calls for their long TSLA shares. It’s essentially a cheap way to avoid margin calls.

 

[DrJohnM]

So basically someone’s pushing down the stock by massively buying put options for pennies, creating a reverse gamma-squeeze? Sounds like an easy way to create a buying dip! Can we do this monthly?

It looks like they have spent $800k buying these options that expire in 37 days time. Does anyone believe that they will come good?

 

[agastya]

My daughter provided some background:

I [she] was baffled by Tesla's rapid drop today and decided to probe a little deeper. I soon stumbled on this article: Is This Why Tesla Just Plunged? | ZeroHedge - it seems someone bought 223,000 way OTM Tesla puts with a $20 strike for March. After reading it, I immediately remembered that I had recently (6th Feb) seen a tweet posted by Michael Burry (of the big short) regarding delta-gamma hedging: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1357829213357711360. As most are aware, Burry is vocally short on Tesla.

In the article he links it says:

a) If NOPE is high negative — This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.

Hello friends!



Burry was also tweeting about FSD earlier, so he was clearly doing some research. Maybe he wanted to try out this method of buying OTM puts in order to encourage market makers to sell off shares so that he could cover his short position? Maybe he just wanted to see if it works?



I don't know but the entire thing seems really off to me. Please let me know what you think.

He's just stated it is not him, but certainly looks like someone unwinded their positions (might just be the gamma squeeze towards that massive put )
https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1359621222904991745

 

[SOULPEDL]

Benzinga: 'The fact is every single Tesla we've tested has failed to hit its EPA range estimate' -Earlier Tweet From Edmunds Highlighting Late-Tuesday Report 'Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption'

https://twitter.com/edmunds/status/1359560204724043776

Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption | Edmunds

Personally find it a little silly to compare "real-world" ranges with a 13 degree temperature difference, but whatever gets you clicks I suppose.

Outside temp was in the low 60's (except Taycan and some others favorites where it was like 72.)

"We run with windows up and the climate control set to auto at 72 degrees"​

Then some more garbage on just getting in and driving, not even attempting to set some commonality, only use the vehicles "Default settings." Who knows what that means.

Worst part is this I think:

"Ambient temperature — how cold or hot it is outside — matters a whole lot when it comes to electric vehicle range, so we list the daily average temperature on the day of testing. California, and more specifically Los Angeles, has one of the more temperate climates in the world, which helps keep our testing conditions relatively consistent throughout the year. But since we can't control the weather, we thought we'd at least report it."
​

So what is "Daily Ave Temp"? It's basically a way to hide the true temperature on the day it was tested. Wow. In other words, just test the Tesla's on the cold days, so it could have been in the 50's F for all we know. That data says absolutely nothing.

Edmonds on my Bad Santa list. Bad Edmunds, Bad.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Brutal day for the home team today. Fell into a big hole early in the first quarter and could not dig its way out.
2021 Season stats
Record : 16-11
Points For (total points in wins) : 372.65
Points Against (total points in losses) : 273.50
Diff (YTD gain/loss) : 99.15
Avg points per win : 23.29
Avg points per loss : 24.86
Last 10 : 4-6
Streak : L2

 

[bpjod]

Benzinga: 'The fact is every single Tesla we've tested has failed to hit its EPA range estimate' -Earlier Tweet From Edmunds Highlighting Late-Tuesday Report 'Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption'

https://twitter.com/edmunds/status/1359560204724043776

Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption | Edmunds

Personally find it a little silly to compare "real-world" ranges with a 13 degree temperature difference, but whatever gets you clicks I suppose.

Thanks for the links. Out of curiosity I read the full article. Range testing is difficult and their methodology is full of potential issues. A few that come to mind without putting in much thought:

• They do disclose the temperatures the vehicles were tested at, but these temps range from 60F to 73F. They also set the climate control to Auto/72F. Those of us who drive EVs know that the heater is one of the biggest killers on range. The cars tested at 60F are at a distinct disadvantage here.
• They "aim for a mix of 60% city driving and 40% highway, assuming that most electric vehicle owners will likely spend more time in stop-and-go traffic than they will on the open highway". They're free to test however they please, and kudos for publishing their test conditions. However, who has range anxiety when they're driving around the city and in stop and go traffic? Not me. Firstly it's unlikely that I'd ever have to drive 300 miles in a city in one go! Secondly, chargers are abundant, if the charge ever gets low, it's easy to top up when in a city. The only place I care about range is long-haul highway driving. My bet is that if one were to test all these vehicles at 70 mph and 70F on a highway (with no drafting or other tricks), the Tesla would look much better than the other cars. Because: aerodynamics. In the early days Tesla's quoted range was for highway driving because they realized that this is what matters. Not sure what numbers they publish these days.
• They're simply driving a route on public roads. Any number of variables such as wind, road conditions, drafting, etc. also play a huge role in efficiency. I hope they've equalized these as best as they can, but honestly, that's nearly impossible on real roads in the real world.

While I do appreciate they are trying to come up with some real world ranges, claiming "every Tesla we've tested has failed to hit its EPA range estimate" reeks of click-baiting. While technically true, they are not replicating the EPA tests and not controlling for variables as well as they should be if they're making such bold claims.

What I do wish for is a city range, highway range and combined range to be published, much like ICE vehicles; all tests done with rigorous control of all variables and on the same test track. All I'd care about would be the highway range. A guy can dream...

 

[space_s3x]

NEWS: Elazar Advisors analyst Chaim Siegel upgraded $TSLA from Hold to Buy with a price target of $1,295.
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1358904329474879498?s=20

So it seems this BTC news has a mixed reaction among analysts too, it's not just the folks here that are in two camps.

Cham Siegel just responded in this reddit thread to explain this upgrade. Upgrade had more to do with extending their model to 2022.
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainves...3?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

We downgraded on the earnings report based on gross margins. I think its the key driver to the valuation. We had a huge huge run ahead of that at a strong buy. I think we were (one of) the only bull(s) for a while on the sell side for a year or two. After the quarter did more work on where the gross margins could go and they have a shot at catching the uptrend in Q1 again so we upgraded and started using 2022 numbers. Normally we dont use 'next year' EPS until April. On this year's numbers the stock is more than fully valued. But we stretched because 2022 EPS look too big so we went back to buy. But the stock technically (we look near and long term on things) maybe because of that full near term value risk/reward isn't perfect nearer term. As for our price targets we base all our coverage price targets only on our earnings model X a PE assumption (usually midpoint of the last 3 years), The max PE we use on anything is 65X even if the average PE for the stock is way higher. So using 65x on '21 eps its expensive but on '22 its cheap. So I dont want to be huge right now but I want to be realistic that '22 sounds too big for EPS. I think the Street is way too low as usual. Our price TSLA targets have typically been way higher than 'now' for a couple of years. After this quarter report though '21's target is lower until everybody looks out to '22. The stock has followed the EPS trajectory. That all said we try to time it so when the stock's ready to go I think we'll see it technically. Wishing you all success.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Placed more buys at $781. Doubt I'll get it, but that would be a nice sale price.

 

[Nocturnal]

My daughter provided some background:

I [she] was baffled by Tesla's rapid drop today and decided to probe a little deeper. I soon stumbled on this article: Is This Why Tesla Just Plunged? | ZeroHedge - it seems someone bought 223,000 way OTM Tesla puts with a $20 strike for March. After reading it, I immediately remembered that I had recently (6th Feb) seen a tweet posted by Michael Burry (of the big short) regarding delta-gamma hedging: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1357829213357711360. As most are aware, Burry is vocally short on Tesla.

I

Burry was also tweeting about FSD earlier, so he was clearly doing some research. Maybe he wanted to try out this method of buying OTM puts in order to encourage market makers to sell off shares so that he could cover his short position? Maybe he just wanted to see if it works?

I don't know but the entire thing seems really off to me. Please let me know what you think.

I'm sure the SEC will be all over this manipulation. No wait, too busy trying to arrest 20 year olds for trading $500 worth of GME.

Interesting Tweet from Ross Gerber; the text of which reads:

"Hey @GordonJohnson19 can’t seem to find you on the SEC or FINRA website. It would seem as if you’re giving financial advice without being properly registered or licensed. Which is illegal. Maybe you can explain your accounting for this? #tesla #FUD $TSLA"​

https://twitter.com/GerberKawasaki/status/1359188984363057153?s=20

I did some digging. GoJo is registered with a firm in NYC. The start date was about 2 months after his old position ended (rumor was that he got fired). It happened after the huge Tesla run up. Coincidence I'm sure. The new firm basically just exists to sell services to "analysts" so that they appear to be legit.

From Brokercheck ANALYST HUB SECURITIES, LLC (CRD#:297665) 401 Park Avenue South 10th Floor, New York, NY 10016 Registered with this firm since 12/17/2019 (his old gig ended October 2019)

If you look up that firm it's clear that GLJ isn't anywhere near the "firm" he pretends. Just a guy in his basement roleplaying.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Good overview of how Tesla influences its battery supplies.
Roadrunner is gonna be a whole other ballgame though.

Check Out Tesla's Influence On The Top 3 Battery Suppliers Globally In 2020

 

[FireMedic]

Suddenly up .7% AH. After having dropped another half a Gordo in the after hours. Anyone know what’s going on?

 

[dl003]

We tagged the lower daily BB today. Except during the COVID crash when we rode the lower BB down for 5 days straight, TSLA has always bounced off it. If tomorrow is not a green day I'll be very surprised and worried.

 

[AMN]

Brutal day for the home team today. Fell into a big hole early in the first quarter and could not dig its way out.
2021 Season stats
Record : 16-11
Points For (total points in wins) : 372.65
Points Against (total points in losses) : 273.50
Diff (YTD gain/loss) : 99.15
Avg points per win : 23.29
Avg points per loss : 24.86
Last 10 : 4-6
Streak : L2

English, please?

 

[UncaNed]

What if the display monitor on the Plaid not only rotates, but it disconnects as well. It's a wireless OS, complete with browser, gaming, and you just know productivity tools will ensue with the Tesla Remote Office is Just an Apple Nightmare (TROJAN).
Soon... "Apple begs to join Tesla."

I like the concept... Long trip? Driver engages FSD, pops off the touchscreen display and steering yoke and passes them back to junior in the third row to have his turn at the video game...

 

[Drezil]

From Brokercheck ANALYST HUB SECURITIES, LLC (CRD#:297665) 401 Park Avenue South 10th Floor, New York, NY 10016 Registered with this firm since 12/17/2019 (his old gig ended October 2019)

According to someone on twitter this is 'just' a WeWork-Address - so not even a real office..

 

[Nocturnal]

According to someone on twitter this is 'just' a WeWork-Address - so not even a real office..

Yeah seems like it. Looks like you pay them a fee and they setup you up with certifications etc.

 

[MD70]

Can someone explain what a reverse gamma squeeze is in very simple terms ? Also what impact would it have on Tesla ?

 

[BornToFly]

What is coming out the bottom of the e-tron?

All I see is this:

 

[lascavarian]

This West & Musk audio livestream does not give me a warm and fuzzy.