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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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English, please?

2021 Season stats
Record : 16-11 / 16 green closes, 11 red closes in 2021
Points For (total points in wins) : 372.65 / Total sum of green closes is 372.65
Points Against (total points in losses) : 273.50 / Total sum of red closes is 273.50
Diff (YTD gain/loss) : 99.15 / 372.65 - 273.50 = 99.15
Avg points per win : 23.29 / 372.65 divided by 16 green days = 23.29
Avg points per loss : 24.86 / 273.50 divided by 11 red days = 24.86
Last 10 : 4-6 / In the past 10 trading days, 4 were green, 6 was red.
Streak : L2 / Two losing days in a row.
 
Social media is a good source of information, not advice.

For example I have learned a lot of BTC on this forum, I now consider it a viable foreign currency hedge, 3 weeks ago that would not have occurred to me. In relation of its value as an inflation hedge, I remain unconvinced, but that hasn't stopped me being on board with Tesla's purchase decision.

People timing the market need to be right, and need to factor in all of the relevant information.

Examples:-
  • Q4 MIC Model Y was produced, but not sold.
  • Q4 Model S/X inventory sell off (lower margins), Q1 refresh and ramp
  • Q4 Solar Roof ramp, and hit to margins.
  • FSD Beta progress, EAP currently available for purchase in Europe and China
Short term numbers can jump around and it is very easy to overlook a relevant factor, or be surprised by a new development.

In terms of useful information on social media, when others announce their buy/sell decisions, that is information of low value.
 
I like the concept... Long trip? Driver engages FSD, pops off the touchscreen display and steering yoke and passes them back to junior in the third row to have his turn at the video game...

You are so right, that Plaid wheel has multipurpose written all over it. Just like that swivel display as a detachable tablet. Did we discover additional market potential here?

Does anyone think that Tesla wouldn't already think of this, or can't create its own OS for both business and pleasure? There would be a lot left to do, but the potential exists, so why not? The point is to have user data for entertainment AND business - Work and Play, even Sleep.

If you were Tesla and didn't like how data was abused by some monopolies today... wouldn't you also plan for a "clean" system and browser experience? Kinda like Starlink for Internet?

Oh, I'm betting harder. Some powerful s*** coming I think.
 
English, please?

Treating each TSLA trading session like it is a sporting event. If stock goes up in a given day, that is considered a win. Loss if it goes down. So this is keeping track, YTD, of how many wins, how many losses, and some stats around those such as total points gained for each win or lost for each loss. The difference is the YTD gain/loss for TSLA. Last 10 is the record for the last 10 trading sessions. Streak is currently L2 which means two losses in a row.

Hopefully that helps.
 
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My daughter provided some background:

I [she] was baffled by Tesla's rapid drop today and decided to probe a little deeper. I soon stumbled on this article: Is This Why Tesla Just Plunged? | ZeroHedge - it seems someone bought 223,000 way OTM Tesla puts with a $20 strike for March. After reading it, I immediately remembered that I had recently (6th Feb) seen a tweet posted by Michael Burry (of the big short) regarding delta-gamma hedging: https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1357829213357711360. As most are aware, Burry is vocally short on Tesla.

In the article he links it says:

a) If NOPE is high negative — This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.

Hello friends!



Burry was also tweeting about FSD earlier, so he was clearly doing some research. Maybe he wanted to try out this method of buying OTM puts in order to encourage market makers to sell off shares so that he could cover his short position? Maybe he just wanted to see if it works?



I don't know but the entire thing seems really off to me. Please let me know what you think.
Hmm, maybe options savvy Tesla longs should write a bunch of these $20 puts for March. If we bought enough of these, that would dilute theta pressure on stock price. Good chance they'd all expire worthless anyway.
 
I think this is new news:

U.S. Trade Authorities Deal Blow To Biden’s Electric Vehicle Plans | HuffPost

The U.S. International Trade Commission on Wednesday banned one of the world’s biggest electric vehicle battery manufacturers from selling its cells in the United States, dealing a major blow to the Biden administration’s ambitious plan to electrify the nation’s auto fleet.

The decision bars South Korean giant SK Innovation from importing its batteries or the components to make them for 10 years, ruling that the company stole trade secrets from its cross-town rival, LG Energy Solution.

The ruling gave the automakers Ford and Volkswagen, which had designed key electric models around the SK Innovation battery, a grace period to switch suppliers. But the decision casts doubt over the future of SK Innovation’s $2.6 billion pair of battery facilities in Jackson County, Georgia, which already started hiring some of the nearly 3,000 workers the Seoul-based firm expected to employ by 2024.


President Joe Biden, who pledged to make electric vehicles a cornerstone of his plan to rapidly scale down U.S. climate pollution, could veto the ITC decision within the next 60 days. But it’s a rarely used presidential power. In the past few decades, Barack Obama was the only president to nullify an ITC decision, blocking a 2013 ruling that would have eliminated some Apple iPhone and iPad products from the market. Ronald Reagan deployed the presidential veto at least four times in the 1980s, coincidentally once for a battery company.

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Not sure if there are TSLA SP implications, BUT . . . what if Tesla was to buy that SK battery plant for its own use?

Or is Tesla's battery 4830 plant design too specific to make use of someone else's hand-me-down plant, even if it was a "steal" price?

Either way, this could make things even more interesting on the EV battery front.
 
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I think this is new news:

U.S. Trade Authorities Deal Blow To Biden’s Electric Vehicle Plans | HuffPost

The U.S. International Trade Commission on Wednesday banned one of the world’s biggest electric vehicle battery manufacturers from selling its cells in the United States, dealing a major blow to the Biden administration’s ambitious plan to electrify the nation’s auto fleet.

The decision bars South Korean giant SK Innovation from importing its batteries or the components to make them for 10 years, ruling that the company stole trade secrets from its cross-town rival, LG Energy Solution.

The ruling gave the automakers Ford and Volkswagen, which had designed key electric models around the SK Innovation battery, a grace period to switch suppliers. But the decision casts doubt over the future of SK Innovation’s $2.6 billion pair of battery facilities in Jackson County, Georgia, which already started hiring some of the nearly 3,000 workers the Seoul-based firm expected to employ by 2024.


President Joe Biden, who pledged to make electric vehicles a cornerstone of his plan to rapidly scale down U.S. climate pollution, could veto the ITC decision within the next 60 days. But it’s a rarely used presidential power. In the past few decades, Barack Obama was the only president to nullify an ITC decision, blocking a 2013 ruling that would have eliminated some Apple iPhone and iPad products from the market. Ronald Reagan deployed the presidential veto at least four times in the 1980s, coincidentally once for a battery company.

(truncated)
*****************************

Not sure if there are TSLA SP implications, BUT . . . what if Tesla was to buy that SK battery plant for its own use?

Or is Tesla's battery 4830 plant design too specific to make use of someone else's hand-me-down plant, even if it was a "steal" price?

Either way, this could make things even more interesting on the EV battery front.
Ouch. That must sting. Ford, VW:
upload_2021-2-10_18-36-3.gif
 
Hmm, maybe options savvy Tesla longs should write a bunch of these $20 puts for March. If we bought enough of these, that would dilute theta pressure on stock price. Good chance they'd all expire worthless anyway.

Good Idea. However, I suspect what you wrote includes a typo. For readers who may have been confused: To write an option means to open it with a sale. To have been bought means just the opposite. I assume you did not actually mean the latter.
 
Hmm, maybe options savvy Tesla longs should write a bunch of these $20 puts for March. If we bought enough of these, that would dilute theta pressure on stock price. Good chance they'd all expire worthless anyway.
You mean if we sold enough of these? Sign me up for 100 a week until this shenanigan stops. IBKR asks for -zero- collateral to sell these anyway.