Exercise-prices could be the premium.
And for 2025: they are not listed on CBOE - but OTC you can do anything if you find someone..
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And for 2025: they are not listed on CBOE - but OTC you can do anything if you find someone..
With a premium that low, $52.38 - $68.56, they'd have to be for something like a $9,000 strike price, no?Exercise-prices could be the premium.
And for 2025: they are not listed on CBOE - but OTC you can do anything if you find someone..
This post has been very helpful. Thank you for doing it; not a trivial task!I have put this on the BEV competitor thread, but I now know that is not on a lot of people's reading list, so here you go
7. The cell manufacturers are far less fragmented than the auto manufacturers. Historically it was BYD, CATL, LG, PAE vs about 20-30 auto manufacturers. ..
I would like to make one clarification, specifically about cell manufacturers and OEM's. Most OEM brands are not 'manufactured' by their brands in the way that cell manufacture takes place. The cell manufacturers actually do manufacture their products from raw materials and components supplied by others. A typical supplier is Targray:
Battery Materials for Lithium-ion Cell Manufacturers | Targray
Note that they supply component parts, but actual cell manufacturing is done by the entity that carries the brand (LG, Samsung, CATL, Panasonic, now Tesla, etc). The cell manufacturers are analogous to chip foundries. They have high capital intensity and high value added.
Contrast that with the typical automotive brand. GM's Chevrolet Bolt, for example was designed in Korea by the GM Korea (Daewoo acquired 2002) staff with LG designing and supplying the powertrain:
A Review of the Chevy Bolt Powertrain | TechInsights
with almost everything else supplied by others:
Suppliers to the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt
There is vastly more detailed information, for those who want it, at MarkLines, which is behind a paywall.
The summary of all that is that GM itself actually manufactures almost nothing in the Bolt, nor most of their other products. They assemble the cars in Korea and import to the US. Very often, when tariffs require, financially adept OEM's like GM export parts to, say, Mexico, Canada or the US at low but defensible prices then assemble them at high but defensive prices to enhance US or any other country domestic content rules. They are all superb about that process, after all they've done it for a century.
Tesla is by far the most vertically integrated vehicle manufacturer, so is more capital intense but also more benefited by economies of scale. Use of extensive robotics and
giga presses simply accentuates that difference and mastery of a cohesive factory operating system may make all this inimitable . Thus we see continuing competitive advantage for Tesla, accelerating as new factories come on line and new models continue to be developed that enable amortization fo technologies over a larger base.
Ford did lots of that at River Rouge more than 100 years ago, but Ford never learned how to rapidly adopt new technology. Now Tesla has arrived with the benefits fo vertical integration coupled with astonishing flexibility and adaptability to new techniques and conditions.
So, sorry for expanding this so much, but it is crucial to understand why Tesla is so different and how it makes any direct comparison to any other OEM fallacious. As we all know this entire thesis ignores Tesla Energy which explains why Tesla investment in battery technology, control systems, motors and materials amortizes over a much, much larger base.
Now consider large trucks where "OEM's" usually do not even make their own engines, transmissions or much of anything else. In effect they are mostly 'badge engineered'. Others are working on buses and trucks of all sizes and types, mostly sticking with the traditional badge engineered model.
An almost directly analogous situation exists with solar roof, Powerwall and Powerpack for which Autobidder and other features helps transforms a hidebound industry.
Frankly I know I cannot estimate even roughly what the impact of all these things and the ones to come will have on TSLA. I am sure that 'we ain't seen nothin' yet!' and that share price will continue to be volatile because all this is so very hard to accept as true. It sounds too much like fantasy. OTOH my P85D was indeed Ludicrous, so my upcoming Plaid will b more so... and they aren't even Winnebago (That is badge engineering!). All tis is like a fantasy but it is real.
How long did it take for the scientific world to understand?:
I would be curious to hear their reasoning on that sort of thing. With cars it makes sense because of market share, upselling FSD, etc. They do seem fine with increasing power wall prices.But people here believes it is better to have Tesla promise a lower price and not deliver for a year on a roof than to have a smaller queue with higher prices until production is fully ramped.
But I'm not the ceo of Tesla so not allowed to criticize the most negative margin product on their balance sheet.
Perhaps it's just that solar roof has been ramping slower than planned and they don't want to scare off potential customers with higher prices? They must have some logic, of course that doesn't mean it's a good one.
Too hard to say. The Senate could pass it as is, or could change it. If that happens it has to go back to the house blah blah.
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If I may be so bold...This post has been very helpful. Thank you for doing it; not a trivial task!
I would like to make one clarification, specifically about cell manufacturers and OEM's. Most OEM brands are not 'manufactured' by their brands in the way that cell manufacture takes place. The cell manufacturers actually do manufacture their products from raw materials and components supplied by others. A typical supplier is Targray:
Battery Materials for Lithium-ion Cell Manufacturers | Targray
Note that they supply component parts, but actual cell manufacturing is done by the entity that carries the brand (LG, Samsung, CATL, Panasonic, now Tesla, etc). The cell manufacturers are analogous to chip foundries. They have high capital intensity and high value added.
Contrast that with the typical automotive brand. GM's Chevrolet Bolt, for example was designed in Korea by the GM Korea (Daewoo acquired 2002) staff with LG designing and supplying the powertrain:
A Review of the Chevy Bolt Powertrain | TechInsights
with almost everything else supplied by others:
Suppliers to the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt
There is vastly more detailed information, for those who want it, at MarkLines, which is behind a paywall.
The summary of all that is that GM itself actually manufactures almost nothing in the Bolt, nor most of their other products. They assemble the cars in Korea and import to the US. Very often, when tariffs require, financially adept OEM's like GM export parts to, say, Mexico, Canada or the US at low but defensible prices then assemble them at high but defensive prices to enhance US or any other country domestic content rules. They are all superb about that process, after all they've done it for a century.
Tesla is by far the most vertically integrated vehicle manufacturer, so is more capital intense but also more benefited by economies of scale. Use of extensive robotics and
giga presses simply accentuates that difference and mastery of a cohesive factory operating system may make all this inimitable . Thus we see continuing competitive advantage for Tesla, accelerating as new factories come on line and new models continue to be developed that enable amortization fo technologies over a larger base.
Ford did lots of that at River Rouge more than 100 years ago, but Ford never learned how to rapidly adopt new technology. Now Tesla has arrived with the benefits fo vertical integration coupled with astonishing flexibility and adaptability to new techniques and conditions.
So, sorry for expanding this so much, but it is crucial to understand why Tesla is so different and how it makes any direct comparison to any other OEM fallacious. As we all know this entire thesis ignores Tesla Energy which explains why Tesla investment in battery technology, control systems, motors and materials amortizes over a much, much larger base.
Now consider large trucks where "OEM's" usually do not even make their own engines, transmissions or much of anything else. In effect they are mostly 'badge engineered'. Others are working on buses and trucks of all sizes and types, mostly sticking with the traditional badge engineered model.
An almost directly analogous situation exists with solar roof, Powerwall and Powerpack for which Autobidder and other features helps transforms a hidebound industry.
Frankly I know I cannot estimate even roughly what the impact of all these things and the ones to come will have on TSLA. I am sure that 'we ain't seen nothin' yet!' and that share price will continue to be volatile because all this is so very hard to accept as true. It sounds too much like fantasy. OTOH my P85D was indeed Ludicrous, so my upcoming Plaid will b more so... and they aren't even Winnebago (That is badge engineering!). All tis is like a fantasy but it is real.
How long did it take for the scientific world to understand?:
TLDR: HODL
The options above are Employee Stock Options - Define Employee Stock Option (ESO)
These are different to the regular exchange traded options the we can access.
Start of MY production in Q3 or Q4 seems likely. Last month the first Giga Press was delivered to Giga Texas.
Tesla takes delivery of massive 'Giga Press' at Gigafactory Texas - Electrek
"The new Giga Press arrives as Tesla is starting to make a lot of progress on its new factory under construction with several structures taking shape over the last few months.
Construction started in July 2020, and the automaker plans to achieve “first completion” in May 2021 with production expected to start shortly after."
We know from Fremont that a GP can be installed, up and running in a few months. Also from Elon's one on one with Sandy Munro that 300 fewer robots are needed when rear of MY is cast and 300 fewer once the front is cast. The best (and quickest to stand up) assembly line is the one with less than half the assembly steps, robots and line workers. Last week it was reported that a large shipment of robots was delivered and the first Giga Press is being assembled. I think Giga Texas will be only a half step behind Berlin in each stage of ramping MY.
Morgan Stanley Sees a Looming Battery Supply Shortage That Could Impact Tesla's (TSLA) Growth Curve
Morgan Stanley Sees a Looming Battery Supply Shortage That Could Impact Tesla's (TSLA) Growth Curve
StreetInsider.com
Nothing new here.
" Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $880.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) noting that as demand and production levels pick up, there are reasons to expect a shortfall in battery supply that could vary widely by region."
Old quotes from Musk, Farley and Barra follow. Looks like a FUDdy headline.
Morgan Stanley Sees a Looming Battery Supply Shortage That Could Impact Tesla's (TSLA) Growth Curve
StreetInsider.com
Nothing new here.
" Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $880.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) noting that as demand and production levels pick up, there are reasons to expect a shortfall in battery supply that could vary widely by region."
Old quotes from Musk, Farley and Barra follow. Looks like a FUDdy headline.
Only policies that change spending or revenues can be included. That's why all the wording refers to previous passed incentives.
If interested in Reconciliation:
Budget Reconciliation: The Basics
larmor
Active Member
Phew, so glad the MS note came through. Originally i was basing my investment based on a company's presentation and ongoing capital expenditure and R&D demonstrating increasing battery EV range, increasing battery production and decreased physical plant size for battery production. Now i think basing long term investment on a paid third party who has access to billions that can move valuation with a simple article is probably best.
They seem to be caught up in this impeachment thing right now. Hard to answer when and what the final bill will look like.
Three months?
Would love it to be three weeks...
Thanks for making me asware
Karen added to it
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1359849187257577473
As always the media already spreads the narrative because it includes "Tesla & Miss" in the headline and forget to do their hiómework at start.
Same procedure like every year (day)
Mokuzai
Member
I placed my order at 11am yesterday, and got a canned text and email from my project advisor a few minutes later. I had some questions that I sent him at 11:45am and I got a response at 3pm where he also gave an estimate of 1-2 months for the layout from the design team. I'm also in So Cal which may play a part in all of this and of course we'll have to see how real the 1-2 months estimate turns out to be. Interestingly I asked about my early access token from the referral program and he said those are invalid at this time.
The bigger question is why are politicians looking at a new EV tax credit law that still limits how many cars an individual manufacturer can sell before the credit goes away? Do we want more EVs and cleaner air or not? The EV credit should exist for X number of years - period. Don't punish the manufacturers that are doing a better job of making and selling cars!
Can't stop the tesla train baby. Everyone can relax now after our massive dip.
They probably want to cap the total cost but what they should do is make it first come first serve rather than rewarding the laggards.
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I did not have time to look at the last couple months to be sure, but I seemed to remember that when we have a big down day post S&P for no reason (like yesterday), we jump back without a good MMD. So I sold a bunch of 800 strike puts for 2 and 4 weeks out near the open. Nice to see a pop in the SP now.
Zach using Tesla's newly-created block-chain technology to issue 1:1 digital shares which can't be counterfeited by naked shorting, and have their entire chain of custody encoded into the cyrpto-key for each share...
Didn't Overstock try that already and ran into problems with the SEC? (I don't remember the details.)
lafrisbee
Active Member
Could we "Sell" these to each other? One week I buy yours. The next week you buy mine? Or can only MM's do that...
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