Their 10k blamed solar roof ramp for the massive negative margins from energy. We see solar roof pricing to be half the price of their competitors and even premium roofs. Not hard to put the two together.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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- elon is an ass
Runarbt
Active Member
I have been aiming at 10-15% below current sp, 1 month out.. However, last Friday I got greedy and moved from $760 to $820 strike. (naked puts).Seemed like a smart move at the time, as it lowered margin need and brought $10k extra cash.
The dip yesterday to $804 was brutal, I panicked when the puts were ITM
- rolled down to $780- which cost me the 10k and increased margin usage to 45%. Back to square one (last week)To answer all your unasked questions:
Yes, I am pretty fresh selling puts. Just been at it since S&P inclusion.
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The problem with buying stock at 811 to sell CC, comes in if the SP drops significantly. Then you don't make much anymore selling CC against those shares. Those of us that have been trading TSLA for years have been burned by this. (We were trading the 600s not too long ago, and could drop back down. I don't know how resilient the SP is post S&P inclusion. We will need time to sort out the effect of all the institutional buying on future volatility). That is why I just sold Puts this morning, and need to decide if I roll them or let them get assigned if the SP drops.
Edit: We went Red as I wrote this....
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Elon is clearly setting up his Energy products where he'd like to see them a couple years out. Pricing is set, and the acquisition/install processes put in place, to where it would be quite profitable at scale. That strategy is what will allow it to scale, and leave everyone else behind who doesn't adapt. It's bold genius, and only achievable now that TSLA is bulletproof.
We need to let Elon do whatever he wants on the residential Energy side for now. I've seen nothing but pretty much perfect moves the last 4 years. It'll pop real real soon.
Your use of different strikes makes the comparison confusing. Try comparing an $810 sold put to an $820 covered stock. Both have roughly the same use of margin though the put does not require interest payments during the option period. You talk of selling CCs on the shares to cover margin interest... you can do that if your put gets assigned too.
Runarbt
Active Member
Hrm.. I haven't done the numbers as you did. Just felt it was comfortable to not actually using the margin, and have to pay interest.
I have been using about 200-250k margin, rolling after a few week to stay within same margin % when premium falls, and made 15% return a month - 40-50k a month. Way to aggressive to do this over time.. I don't sleep to well the first days after opening/rolling a new position, or when SP dips.
Maybe I should consider buy/write instead. Will look into the numbers, thanks!
Edit: We should move over to the trading thread, if we are to continue this chat.
The Bolt is assembled in Michigan. High value parts are imported from S Korea, as you said.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The problem with buying stock at 811 to sell CC, comes in if the SP drops significantly. Then you don't make much anymore selling CC against those shares. Those of us that have been trading TSLA for years have been burned by this. (We were trading the 600s not too long ago, and could drop back down. I don't know how resilient the SP is post S&P inclusion. We will need time to sort out the effect of all the institutional buying on future volatility). That is why I just sold Puts this morning, and need to decide if I roll them or let them get assigned if the SP drops.
Edit: We went Red as I wrote this....
Yeah, I've been doing this for a bit too, and while I have been "stuck" with red margin shares for a while I've at least been lucky enough not to be stuck with ones I couldn't at least make more than margin interest off the premiums even selling well OTM from the dipped price.
But the fact that COULD happen is why I was looking at how this use of margin compared to selling deeply OTM puts that lack that risk.... (though have a lower- but far more expensive- risk of assignment if there's a major crash).
The guy to whom I was replying was talking about selling far OTM puts, seemingly with intent of them NOT exercising just grabbing premium.
That's in contrast to when I do buy/write CCs and WANT them to exercise so I sell just a couple bucks OTM.
FWIW I went back and bumped the sold put to $600 strike and at that level the return was SLIGHTLY better than doing the buy/write I cited for the same date just slightly above the buy price.
600 is probably still a pretty "safe" strike- though if you were looking at doing (again to keep the math comparable) about 80ish k of margin both ways your profit is slightly better selling 7 $600 puts for 3/19 vs a buy/write at 811/820.... and your "risk" is either:
Stock crashes below 600, and you're on the hook for $420,000 in assignment (mitigatable by rolling I suppose depending how bad/long the crash is)
or
Stock drops under 811 and you are "stuck" with 100 shares at $811 and paying margin interest on em.. but would need a big crash to not be able to at least cover said interest with future premium.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Ramping any technology is expensive. They have to train the installation crews, develop install manuals for all common construction methods, etc. By definition, during ramp the installs are not going to cover the price of the ramp. That is not evidence that the pricing is too low, we are at the very beginning of the ramp.
Tesla's biggest challenge right now is to get enough competent installers on board. That's a lot easier to do when the product is a screaming buy and installers can make a decent profit. That's why they are losing money during the ramp. Also, because the pricing structure affects the certified installers it can't be highly variable from month to month. There is a lot of value in picking a price and sticking with it. You are crying over a few gallons of spilt milk while Tesla is preparing to take over global milk production. This is a giant under-taking, not some nickel and dime plan to make a few dollars. The path to unimaginable wealth is never lined with short-term profits.
Think big.
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Imagine how many robots will be unnecessary if Tesla casts an entire car frame as a single piece, which seems to be their goal, judging from Tesla patents and Elon's tweets.
This is the kind of innovation that no one is prepared for -- not competitors or analysts or media -- except HODLers.
The machine that builds the "world car" machine is being designed now, in secret.
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Krugerrand
Meow
I guess some of us just prefer not to repeatedly put our foot in our mouth. Personally, I like to have all the facts before criticizing, critiquing, or opining.
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
I believe we're at a critical short-term juncture right now. We've tested 800 3 times this week and bounced off, but that doesn't keep happening forever.
All week (5 min chart for the week below) it's been near-constant intraday selling. Aren't they tired yet?
It's time for a jump up to 840 or so. Otherwise you folks with those $780 orders are going to get filled.
All week (5 min chart for the week below) it's been near-constant intraday selling. Aren't they tired yet?
It's time for a jump up to 840 or so. Otherwise you folks with those $780 orders are going to get filled.
As a Union electrician I advocated renewable energy and electric vehicles while working at an electric utility. Needless to say, many of my coworkers took umbrage with my position, arguing that it would cost Union jobs.
To ignore the evolution of technology, is to sacrifice future jobs to the Luddite gods. I suppose many cases of myopia are untreatable.
Autoworkers face dimmer future in a new era of electric cars
To ignore the evolution of technology, is to sacrifice future jobs to the Luddite gods. I suppose many cases of myopia are untreatable.
Autoworkers face dimmer future in a new era of electric cars
Except pissed off customers waiting a year for their roof to be installed...which can be fixed with pricing. What they did with Solar Roof 1.0 and 2.0 pricing was fine. People waited, but the queue wasn't ridiculous and the early adopters knew what they were getting into. Did Solar Roof pricing fall dramatically recently because I don't remember people getting an entire roof for only 35k last year.
Every hyper growth stocks visit the 50 ma a few times a year. It's the right of passage, and it is the way. I wouldn't worry about it.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't keep track of the exact pricing, but I do know it got very reasonable more than a year ago. $35k reasonable? I honestly don't recall. But I remember people getting quoted around $45k long before covid and being shocked.
This is the Elon way. I'm not 100% behind it, not even 75% in favor of it. But it works in so many positive ways for Tesla, TSLA, and the market as a whole.
The current major hurdle is to get service and communications under control. They were both thrown out with the door-to-door sales operation, which is fine, but service needs to be rebuilt entirely separate from sales. IMO Elon is hesitant to do this because he thinks any additional resource that isn't installation would eventually morph into sales. Paranoid if you ask me, but not an entirely unreasonable concern. This is where we should put pressure as shareholders. A customer can wait a year, as long as a year IS a year and not quoted as 3 months.
It'll get sorted out in this calendar year is my guess. One more chaotic summer isn't the end of the world.
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