Correct and I was about to show the visual of what you just explained. Sure, TSLA rides with the macro swings mostly, but then it gets thrown around 10x on stupid stories that take advantage of the limited math knowledge out there. The sharp rises happen when people come to realize the truth, and the truth on FSD is about to come out, and technically already did with Germany already on board. I can't wait for $1,000+. Might take a few months so just gonna ride out whatever this thing is. Think coil spring - Boing!
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Correct and I was about to show the visual of what you just explained. Sure, TSLA rides with the macro swings mostly, but then it gets thrown around 10x on stupid stories that take advantage of the limited math knowledge out there. The sharp rises happen when people come to realize the truth, and the truth on FSD is about to come out, and technically already did with Germany already on board. I can't wait for $1,000+. Might take a few months so just gonna ride out whatever this thing is. Think coil spring - Boing!
This is my first cut of where the batteries came from in 2020. It is a mix of bottom up and top down, and there are variable levels of confidence in different bits of intelligence I turned up. The whole matrix needs to add to 113 GWh and I have assumed that Adamas got their ratios correct between the different cell suppliers after allowing for 10 GWh going into HEV. One big assumption I made was that BYD preferentially feed cells to themselves. I did the top 20 auto OEMs, and the same cell suppliers as Adamas, but collapsed it down into seven auto lines just as with my other stuff.
Anyway, some questions:
Q1. If you spot any significant errors in the 2020 results please tell me.
Q2. If you have helpful data sources for 2019 let me know and I'll see if I can construct that.
Q3. If you have any credible info on what the picture will be for 2021 and 2022 please let me know and I will crunch that.
Anyway, some questions:
Q1. If you spot any significant errors in the 2020 results please tell me.
Q2. If you have helpful data sources for 2019 let me know and I'll see if I can construct that.
Q3. If you have any credible info on what the picture will be for 2021 and 2022 please let me know and I will crunch that.
mulder1231
Active Member
Oh, the MarketWatch article that I quoted from suggested something entirely different:
Board member Antonio Gracias makes a pretty penny trading Tesla shares
In another SEC filing late Wednesday, Tesla disclosed that private-equity investor Antonio Gracias, a longtime Tesla board member and close to Elon Musk, acquired earlier this week a total of 150,747 shares at a weighted average price of $58.149 through the exercising of derivative securities.
On Feb. 9, the same day Kimbal Musk sold his stock, the filing shows Gracias sold 150,747 shares in a series of trades. He didn’t do as well as Kimbal Musk, however, as he sold his shares at a weighted average price of $846.591.
I interpreted this as to mean he exercised his options and then sold the shares, leaving him with cash. There is no mention of buying back call options. So you are saying he just moved his holding from all shares to all leaps? If so, that’s a vote of confidence for sure.
About his indirect holdings, that fact was (conveniently) left out of the MarketWatch article.
Watched the Joe Rogan and Elon podcast. Paid special attention to Elon talking about CO2 is "good" for green plant because there are posts here ridicule Elon's position.
I think he is just following Joe's question about certain people's counter view that CO2 is good for plant. But Elon's position is loud and clear that CO2 level, "if we are complacent and do nothing", especially if there is a "major event, such as the melting of the north pole tundra", then we are definitely screwed. He made this very clear in the same interview, same topic, even same answer.
To only focus on Elon's comment about CO2 being good for plant is really trying to pick bone from egg. Nothing there. It's like trying to review SpaceX's government launch contract because Elon smoked a joint. Makes sense in the strict sense, but nonsense anyway.
With regard to Kimbal selling the shares. I remember Kimbal and Robin sold shares around $500 right around the time Tesla did not get into SP500 around September (?), and stock dropped to low 400 afterward. But see what it is right now.
I once made a post about this and concluded that "inside selling really do not mean anything". A forum remember also replied by saying "inside selling rarely means top, but inside buying usually is a very bullish sign", which I think is very insightful.
Newly minted TSLA long maybe anxious by TSLA's stock price drop and worry about their holding. But for old timer this is no event.
And no, Elon did not slip into the right wing conspiracy theory rabbit hole. He said he likes Bernie a lot, even though he is a communist. Same Bernie who thinks Elon should surrender his billions.
I think he is just following Joe's question about certain people's counter view that CO2 is good for plant. But Elon's position is loud and clear that CO2 level, "if we are complacent and do nothing", especially if there is a "major event, such as the melting of the north pole tundra", then we are definitely screwed. He made this very clear in the same interview, same topic, even same answer.
To only focus on Elon's comment about CO2 being good for plant is really trying to pick bone from egg. Nothing there. It's like trying to review SpaceX's government launch contract because Elon smoked a joint. Makes sense in the strict sense, but nonsense anyway.
With regard to Kimbal selling the shares. I remember Kimbal and Robin sold shares around $500 right around the time Tesla did not get into SP500 around September (?), and stock dropped to low 400 afterward. But see what it is right now.
I once made a post about this and concluded that "inside selling really do not mean anything". A forum remember also replied by saying "inside selling rarely means top, but inside buying usually is a very bullish sign", which I think is very insightful.
Newly minted TSLA long maybe anxious by TSLA's stock price drop and worry about their holding. But for old timer this is no event.
And no, Elon did not slip into the right wing conspiracy theory rabbit hole. He said he likes Bernie a lot, even though he is a communist. Same Bernie who thinks Elon should surrender his billions.
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BornToFly
Supporting Member
Incredible. That was a good one. Bottom of MMD was right around 10:30. Forget Atomic clocks, satellites should use TSLA MMD.
corduroy
Member
UncaNed
Supporting Member
Is it better to do this when SP and LEAP prices are higher, or better to do this when SP and LEAP prices reach a new ATH? My simian mathematical abilities preclude wrapping my head around this.Well, we didn't quite hit 780 (yet), so it's currently a slightly higher high (or double-bottom if you prefer) than the 780.10 from a couple weeks ago that spurred the rally to 880. If it can close at 800+ today, next week looks pretty good.
I took advantage of the dip to rearrange some calls, selling a couple of tranches of July calls when we hit 805, and buying about a third more contracts at higher strikes (but still ITM) in May and June when it was below 790. It didn't change my overall delta much, but it will if we get back to 850 within a few weeks (moar gamma).
If we'd gone down to 750, then I'd have sacrificed some core shares to roll into calls, but so far, so good. My biggest worry right now is not GB's bunch, but a real market correction.
I had a bunch of CCs expiring today, so come Monday, I'll be totally naked.
Let's f'ing do this.
Sudre
Active Member
- May 30, 2012
- 1,038
- 6,622
That is simple. Max Pain is NOT $830. As I have said before, the printed max pain is an aggregate of more than one army.
Today THEY now WANT it under $830.
They want it ABOVE $800 (that would actually hurt to be under)
Everything between those is chicken feed. Puts almost match Calls.
THEY are trading Options today so all this can move while we don't get to see the magic wand.
The reason I say THEY is because I actually have no clue who THEY are. The 800 Puts can be a difference THEY than the $830 Calls. Could be hedge funds. Could be MMs. If the magnet works easily then it's most likely MMs. Notice how after $785 someone went "NO!" and it was immediately brought up above $800. That was almost like a nun with a ruler.
These days are fun to watch when big guys (THEY) are having a disagreement. Stay out of the way.
agastya
Member
This is generally a quiet time between quarters ... In the absence of any news catapulting the stock higher, TSLA is still tracking with the market broadly (if you compare with SPX - it is a similar looking graph)
We are simply prone to more swings and that is expected given TSLA's beta is double that of the likes of APPL and AMZN.
asburgers
Member
All else equal - You typically want to go long on options when implied volatility is low. It's relatively low right now so it could be a good entry point.
Selling 157,000 shares and then buying 150,000 ditm calls doesn’t add up. They are 100x apart. Who does he buy those from and for what price?
saniflash
Member
Dancing Lemur
Hoopy Frood
There's not necessarily a "better", just different levels of risk/reward. I tend to increase my leverage when the SP corrects by 10%, as it just has, and then decrease it again if it quickly recovers.
But if it recovers slowly, then the moves I've made will be worse than sticking with the longer-term deeper ITM calls. Potentially quite a bit worse.
If you increase your leverage at an ATH, though, you're betting that it's going to continue to go up. That's the time I'd be shifting to more stock than options, and getting my cash balance to zero (no margin). That way I can try to catch the falling knife on the next inevitable dip (and my hands are rather bloody from this week).
All that being said, in my retirement account I haven't touched anything this week, and it's doing just fine with almost everything in TSLA shares and requiring a whole lot less work.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
When your mission is to reduce human output of CO2 you need to use every weapon in your arsenal. That includes debunking the often used and wrong talking about that CO2 is good for plants. I was simply expressing my surprise that someone who has been concerned about human generated CO2 for as long as Elon didn't know that what Rogan was saying was false and didn't correct him. Pointing out inaccuracies is never "nonsense".
agastya
Member
can't do the exact math of his trade, but if one is bullish AF - they could hold 1 JAN23 200c for the same price as holding ~70 TSLA shares today(rough math)
Lets say TSLA is at 2000 at expiry:
70 shares would be worth: 140k
1 Jan23 200c would have an intrinsic value of 180k.
DITM leaps are as good as holding shares(for a lower cost basis) if bullish.
not advice.
I suspect those were the premium. Why would anyone buy calls with insanely odd strikes? Imagine calling your broker and say "I want to buy 50,000 52.38 calls on TSLA." The order will probably get rejected due to fear of breaking their algorithm.
Antonio Gracias net worth is about $100M. He simply cannot afford the premium on 150,000 DITM call options which would cost > $12B.
PS: yes, I would make a good detective.
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I am at the point where Elon talking about Bill Gates shorting TSLA. I really don't care whether Bill shorted TSLA or not. But I just want to make it clear. Here is what Elon said:
"I also heard that at one point he get a big short position against Tesla".
This implied that this is in the past. And the short has been covered.
Again, I really don't care what Bill Gates did to TSLA. Just like Bill Gates could laugh at Elon's assertion about Covid. And Elon obviously did not care and was not certain IF Gates actually shorted or not.
Just an observation.
"I also heard that at one point he get a big short position against Tesla".
This implied that this is in the past. And the short has been covered.
Again, I really don't care what Bill Gates did to TSLA. Just like Bill Gates could laugh at Elon's assertion about Covid. And Elon obviously did not care and was not certain IF Gates actually shorted or not.
Just an observation.
I understand what you said. But let's all chill out a bit and let Elon have some fun. He has done more than anybody else. Let him relax a bit and not being a fighter all the time. Fighting can be exhausting.
It wouldn't surprise me. For awhile Bill seemed to have a subtle but odd negative bias towards Tesla. Not sure whether it was to cover his own investments in other technologies and stuff or just anti-Elon.
That said as Elon mentioned, think this is in the past. I think I recall Bill in an interview last year giving credit to Tesla for really pushing the EV path forward.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I don't think Elon read or was affected by my comment. If he did I hope he'd be grateful for the additional information.
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