Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

This is my first cut of where the batteries came from in 2020. It is a mix of bottom up and top down, and there are variable levels of confidence in different bits of intelligence I turned up. The whole matrix needs to add to 113 GWh and I have assumed that Adamas got their ratios correct between the different cell suppliers after allowing for 10 GWh going into HEV. One big assumption I made was that BYD preferentially feed cells to themselves. I did the top 20 auto OEMs, and the same cell suppliers as Adamas, but collapsed it down into seven auto lines just as with my other stuff.

Anyway, some questions:
Q1. If you spot any significant errors in the 2020 results please tell me.
Q2. If you have helpful data sources for 2019 let me know and I'll see if I can construct that.
Q3. If you have any credible info on what the picture will be for 2021 and 2022 please let me know and I will crunch that.

Given that you are breaking down the supply by OEM and supplier, you may want to consider a mosaic chart (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosaic_plot). This would make is easier to see how for example LG is a key supplier to each OEM and how that fraction from LG varies by client.

 

[henchman24]

I think that Gary Black made an emotional decision. He was a bit skeptical post earning and wasn't really thrilled with how that went. It was almost like he was looking for a way out. Then when they announced the Bitcoin purchase, he had the reason he needed to jump out and did so. I think he will come back in at some point, but he is looking for a lower price and a reason to jump back in. In doing so, he is making justifications for his decisions... and some of them aren't wrong. Tesla hasn't given clear delivery guidance, they did miss (ever so slightly and he's ignoring that they could have easily downgraded their guidance from Jan 2020, but didn't), FSD isn't taking off yet, and there are headwinds. I have my opinions as to why Tesla isn't really clear on some things, and I'll be looking for confirmations through some reporting (Q1 and monthly China production namely)... I'd just hope that Gary can re-evaluate when information comes in.

 

[ZeApelido]

And you invested in TSLA? Everyone should know by now that it gets manipulated up and down--usually with large swings. The overall trend is up as long as Tesla keeps executing.

Wait the stock market can go down?

I just started investing, my grandparents let me put all their retirement money into TSLA.

 

[gene]

And you invested in TSLA? Everyone should know by now that it gets manipulated up and down--usually with large swings. The overall trend is up as long as Tesla keeps executing.

Yep. It has been doing this since I started in 2012. The the old days the swings percentage wise was huge compared to these days.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1360296714159194115?s=21

Informative tweets from @avoigt. Looks like VW has been aggressively "selling" ID.3's to their dealers and to themselves (corporate fleet) to help meet their EU emissions targets. A lot also seem to be showing up rather early in the used car market.

 

[jhm]

I think that Gary Black made an emotional decision. He was a bit skeptical post earning and wasn't really thrilled with how that went. It was almost like he was looking for a way out. Then when they announced the Bitcoin purchase, he had the reason he needed to jump out and did so. I think he will come back in at some point, but he is looking for a lower price and a reason to jump back in. In doing so, he is making justifications for his decisions... and some of them aren't wrong. Tesla hasn't given clear delivery guidance, they did miss (ever so slightly and he's ignoring that they could have easily downgraded their guidance from Jan 2020, but didn't), FSD isn't taking off yet, and there are headwinds. I have my opinions as to why Tesla isn't really clear on some things, and I'll be looking for confirmations through some reporting (Q1 and monthly China production namely)... I'd just hope that Gary can re-evaluate when information comes in.

If he had just taken some profits and trimmed back his position 10% or 20%, I think that would have been understandable. When you completely sell out, the shift in endowment effect can radically alter your perception of value in ways that others can find hard to understand.

 

[Curt Renz]

Are they really going to keep pinning this at $800 for the next 3.5 hours?

That is simple. Max Pain is NOT $830. As I have said before, the printed max pain is an aggregate of more than one army.
Today THEY now WANT it under $830.
They want it ABOVE $800 (that would actually hurt to be under)
Everything between those is chicken feed. Puts almost match Calls.

THEY are trading Options today so all this can move while we don't get to see the magic wand.

View attachment 636130

The reason I say THEY is because I actually have no clue who THEY are. The 800 Puts can be a difference THEY than the $830 Calls. Could be hedge funds. Could be MMs. If the magnet works easily then it's most likely MMs. Notice how after $785 someone went "NO!" and it was immediately brought up above $800. That was almost like a nun with a ruler.

These days are fun to watch when big guys (THEY) are having a disagreement. Stay out of the way.

Thanks.
So generally look at where there is a Put wall and a Call wall more so than the published Max pain number because that will change through Friday?

Indeed. Of course it’s Friday, which implies a weekly options expiration. The $800 strikes for both calls and puts have the most interest and volume. That could be the price that large option writers want to defend through manipulative means. The greater interest at $800 is in the puts, so the manipulators may want to play it safe and keep the share price above. Then quite often on Monday the share price springs upward. In this case that would have to be Tuesday.

The upcoming three-day-weekend may have sent cautious traders to the sidelines. In fact, it’s a four-day weekend here in Illinois where Lincoln’s birthday is being celebrated today. But the big day this weekend is tomorrow, when I’ll get my first dose of a Moderna Covid-19 vaccine from a happily open Veterans Administration clinic.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1360296714159194115?s=21

Informative tweets from @avoigt. Looks like VW has been aggressively "selling" ID.3's to their dealers and to themselves (corporate fleet) to help meet their EU emissions targets. A lot also seem to be showing up rather early in the used car market.

Gee, not like any of us here said that weeks ago. That twitter thing is so slow.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1360296714159194115?s=21

Informative tweets from @avoigt. Looks like VW has been aggressively "selling" ID.3's to their dealers and to themselves (corporate fleet) to help meet their EU emissions targets. A lot also seem to be showing up rather early in the used car market.

cOMpEtiTiON iS CoMInG™

 

[Nocturnal]

cOMpEtiTiON iS CoMInG™

Bonus, "ID3 sold a ton in Luxembourg, clearly tesla has nun demand, fwaud" -GOJO

 

[dl003]

Personally I find the noncommitment to a hard 2021 target extremely bullish for TSLA. We all know 2021 is going to be a huge year for TSLA with 2 GF going live and more than a few new model ramps. I can't even begin to imagine the work and brain power it is going to take to execute the plan. One must then raise the question if it is worth it to spend the time to manage WS's expectation. No. They didn't take TSLA seriously when it said it will deliver 500k in 2020. That's why they were scrambling to catch up with PTs. Why would this time be any different? Let WS do its things and focus on your job. That's what I want to see from the management. It shows they are laser focused on execution. Lay it all out at the beginning. If you wanna sell, sell and go away. TSLA doesn't need the hype and drama around the stock price to cause distraction to its workers.
Bottom line is know your management team. If you don't think they are going to work extremely hard with every fiber in their body to create long term value for investors, then sell and go away. What they communicate to WS is irrelevant. Gary Black is acting like Elon Musk suddenly stopped being Elon Musk, hence the reason for the soft guidance. I feel sorry for people who are selling because they prefer hype over execution and instant gratification over doing the necessary work to understand TSLA.

 

[Mengy]

This consolidation phase the stock is in doesn't concern me, it's healthy in my opinion. 2021 is still going to be an incredible year for Tesla:

1. Two new giga factories coming online.
2. 750K+ vehicle production.
3. Semi entering production.
4. Cybertruck entering very early production at year's end.
5. Likely profitable quarters from here on out.
6. We'll probably get to see the "Model 2" concept sometime this year.
7. Very likely to get a new factory or two announced this year.
8. Potentially Level 5 FSD releasing this year, at a minimum immense progress towards it.


It's mid-February and we are already up $100+ on the SP from last year's highs. And just look at all those incoming positives for the company!

I shudder in anticipation to wonder where the SP will be by the end of 2021. Let it trade sideways for a bit, I'm not worried in even the slightest.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla hasn't given clear delivery guidance

Huh? Seems pretty clear to me: "we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries."

Would you have been happier if they said they expect to deliver about 750k vehicles in 2021, 1.125M vehicles in 2022, etc.?

 

[corduroy]

Wait the stock market can go down?

STONKS only go up, but stocks can go up and down.

 

[2daMoon]

Practicing patience and emotional control while waiting for the inevitable boing to happen seems to be having the opposite effect in regard to making me calm, content, and happy to wait for that which is to come.

Wazup with dat?

Well, at least the weekend is here, and a long one at that. Oh, nevermind, that doesn't really help, does it?

Ah, the joys of livin' the life of a HODLer ...

 

[ZeApelido]

STONKS only go up, but stocks can go up and down.

Exactly! I found this analytical chart projecting steady linear growth.

 

[2daMoon]

Exactly! I found this analytical chart projecting steady linear growth.

I feel better now.

Thanx

 

[AudubonB]

I am not so full of myself as to think that someone influential at Tesla saw my admonitory post that engendered my new "upper Signature" line, but I am delighted that their description of targets now is "....50% average annual growth..." rather than the previous "a half million", or "three quarters of a million" and so forth.

It would be a LOT more difficult for mischievous reporters who say Tesla guided for 500,000 but missed because they delivered 'only' 499,647 (can't find the re-stated #s!), when they would have to adjust that percentage #. The world would be on its floor rolling in stitches were someone to publish "Tesla guided for +50% but deliveries rose only 49.94% - MISS!!)".

 

[Sudre]

Thanks.
So generally look at where there is a Put wall and a Call wall more so than the published Max pain number because that will change through Friday?

While that works it is more complicated than that. This week I think the gap between the Puts and Calls at the $800 strike is too great. I don't think THEY can buy back and roll them all so they will try to just hold the line. If it becomes to much or they do actually roll or buy back whatever they need the foot comes off the accelerator and you will see the price drop quick. Holding the line they want is taking profits off the table a little at a time.

The absolute sweet spot I think is >$805.01. and as you noted up to $830 is all good.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA has moved into the green.

[