Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[agastya]

What alt-right impulses has he bet the company on?

Think your reaction here is beyond extreme. Just as there is an alt-right, I would argue there is an equally dangerous alt-left that prides itself on severe public shaming and outrage for someone saying even anything they slightly disagree with.

One can agree with some of the things Elon says all the time,
the same person can agree with all of the things Elon says, some of the times.
but it is very rare that you will find a person who will agree with all of the things Elon says, all of the times.

It's called being human and having your own opinions - there will always be a yin to the yang. My biggest takeaway from these recent interactions with Clubouse, Munro, and now Rogan is that Elon is in excellent mood, and not stressed about achieving the targets they have set for themselves across the companies. You will see the occasional ramp is hard, starlink integration is complex and expensive - but the underlying currents of his thoughts indicate he is more than ready to take these challenges on and win like he has done.

Read something on twitter y'day which I think summed up Elon the best way possible. It's funny how he ruffles feathers on both sides of the spectrum.
https://twitter.com/benedictevans/status/1358760338724974594

 

[Nocturnal]

Whoever bought the $800 march puts I sold a few weeks back is going to kick themselves for not exercising.

Summary of that short seller TSLA twitter thread:

1. Lie to self by believing you're much smarter than you are
2. Short TSLA
3. Tell everyone you shorted TSLA and make up some dumb story on why this is smart
4. Wait a little bit
5. Get margin called

Same thing that's been happening for years.

You also forgot "get a raging every time some person dies horribly anywhere near a Tesla". That's why I hate TSLAQ. Garbage people.

 

[dww12]

I suspect those were the premium. Why would anyone buy calls with insanely odd strikes? Imagine calling your broker and say "I want to buy 50,000 52.38 calls on TSLA." The order will probably get rejected due to fear of breaking their algorithm.
Antonio Gracias net worth is about $100M. He simply cannot afford the premium on 150,000 DITM call options which would cost > $12B.
PS: yes, I would make a good detective.

Ok, if that was the premium paid and not the strike, then bullish AF, AF. And that was the math I was getting that made no sense.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Are they really going to keep pinning this at $800 for the next 3.5 hours?

 

[asburgers]

Ok, if that was the premium paid and not the strike, then bullish AF, AF. And that was the math I was getting that made no sense.

The problem is that there is nothing out there for that time frame with those premiums. ie. Jun17'22 1725C are trading around $98.

Possible conclusion. Mr G YOLO'd on Jun19'21 1100C instead.

 

[mejojo]

Gary drew a line in the sand saying he would sell $TSLA if it bought Bitcoin. It did and he sold.

I suppose you could say good for him for sticking to his guns, but the BTC purchase represented only about 0.18% of Tesla's market cap -- hardly a basis to sell shares from a strictly dollars and cents perspective even if you think it is a terrible use of cash.

That bitcoin conversion that has seemed to have increased about a half billion $.

 

[dww12]

Ok, if that was the premium paid and not the strike, then bullish AF, AF. And that was the math I was getting that made no sense.

Still not enough $$.
157,000 x 830 = $129m
150,000x100x60= $900m

 

[AimStellar]

Fun times.

 

[UltradoomY]

The problem is that there is nothing out there for that time frame with those premiums. ie. Jun17'22 1725C are trading around $98.

Possible conclusion. Mr G YOLO'd on Jun19'21 1100C instead.

I would strongly consider that it is accurate - since he is disclosing it.
Some people - including those with Board Chairs - can buy (and sell) options that are not on the market that we can view.
They can go directly to the MM or have a relationship already to make the sale available.

 

[Nocturnal]

We are still up over $100 from the S&P inclusion numbers. We will be fine everyone. Buy the dip or sell puts. I'm finding that selling puts has the other advantage that I can keep some cash reserves without getting too itchy to spend it on something.

 

[capster]

This is my first cut of where the batteries came from in 2020. It is a mix of bottom up and top down, and there are variable levels of confidence in different bits of intelligence I turned up. The whole matrix needs to add to 113 GWh and I have assumed that Adamas got their ratios correct between the different cell suppliers after allowing for 10 GWh going into HEV. One big assumption I made was that BYD preferentially feed cells to themselves. I did the top 20 auto OEMs, and the same cell suppliers as Adamas, but collapsed it down into seven auto lines just as with my other stuff.

Anyway, some questions:
Q1. If you spot any significant errors in the 2020 results please tell me.
Q2. If you have helpful data sources for 2019 let me know and I'll see if I can construct that.
Q3. If you have any credible info on what the picture will be for 2021 and 2022 please let me know and I will crunch that.

That is a fabulous chart. It clearly and concisely captures the state of play. Thank you.

It would be interesting to know the PHEV/BEV battery use ratios. It’d likely overload the chart to add the ratios, but you might try using shading to convey them and see if it works.

Also you might list within parentheses which OEM’s are in the "Next Tier" in the appropriate block (but not in the legend).

One question you might face is "How much PHEV battery capacity could be readily shifted to BEV use?" or some such. Having even a WAG in your backup slides would be slick. Please post the answer to this question if you develop one. TIA

 

[petit_bateau]

That is a fabulous chart. It clearly and concisely captures the state of play. Thank you.

It would be interesting to know the PHEV/BEV battery use ratios. It’d likely overload the chart to add the ratio, but you might try using shading to convey it and see if it works.

Also you might list within parentheses which OEM’s are in the "Next Tier" in the appropriate block (but not in the legend).

One question you might face is "How much PHEV battery capacity could be readily shifted to BEV use?" or some such. Having even a WAG in your backup slides would be slick. Please post the answer to this question if you develop one. TIA

1. For PHEV/BEV ratio see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments

2. For Next Tier see Tesla BEV Competition Developments (but it is SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes ).

3. For shifting, again see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments , esp my points 2, 5, 9.

Have you any info re my questions ?

 

[Big Time]

Jesus Gary is just blind. Wtf happened to him. Straight knucklehead. He’s ranting about Tesla growth stopping as Tesla sets guidance for 500K again. Lol. Did he forget that Shanghai is now running at 25K monthly aka 300K annual. And that number will no doubt grow this year..

Tesla Shanghai only delivered around 150K in all of 2020?...: there’s 50% yoy right there.

also, I hope Tesla releases some sort of good news soon, update on ANYTHING would be a confidence booster for what ever is going on in the market. I gotta believe they can see/feel the effects..... I know how it goes though they seemingly act as if they don’t care about the stock...seen it before, we will see it again.

good luck all

 

[capster]

1. For PHEV/BEV ratio see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments

2. For Next Tier see Tesla BEV Competition Developments (but it is SAIC, BMW, GAC, Mercedes ).

3. For shifting, again see my Tesla BEV Competition Developments , esp my points 2, 5, 9.

Have you any info re my questions ?

If I did, I would happily provide it to you. Alas, I do not. I am retired for now at least.

Thank you for the links.

 

[asburgers]

GB revised again a 6-12 mo PT of $960 today. That is by no means bearish.

Guess he is looking to for quick outs on other stocks and reenter in 3-4 months? Weird move to be completely out as I wouldn't consider 6-12 mos long term.

Ok. I can't explain this except to speculate that GB hates BTC.

https://twitter.com/TeslaHab/status/1358820114364325888?s=19

 

[StealthP3D]

When your mission is to reduce human output of CO2 you need to use every weapon in your arsenal. That includes debunking the often used and wrong talking about that CO2 is good for plants. I was simply expressing my surprise that someone who has been concerned about human generated CO2 for as long as Elon didn't know that what Rogan was saying was false and didn't correct him. Pointing out inaccuracies is never "nonsense".

You are way off base latching on to this comment by Elon and making a mountain of misleading BS out of the flat out truth. The fact is, CO2 is good for plants (in the same way that O2 is good for humans). Sure, too much of either is bad but plants can use more CO2 than the natural atmospheric level to grow faster and thrive. Elon said this as a matter of fact (because it is a matter of fact). But you are using it to pretend he has gone off the deep end. Pull yourself together, get real and stop the misleading BS!

The most productive marijuana growers spend a lot of money equipping their grow rooms with CO2 enrichment because the plants like it. Which is to say they grow faster and the grower can make a lot more money, even after paying off his CO2 equipment and expendables. Growers who don't use CO2 cannot match the growth rates of those who do, even using powerful fans to maintain normal CO2 levels in the grow room. This is a fact. Elon knows it. He was just stating the obvious to anyone knowledgeable about plant growth. He didn't say we should strive for high levels of CO2, quite the opposite.

Elon Musk has dedicated a larger portion of his life to lowering CO2 levels in the atmosphere than anyone I can think of. He is even offering a $100 million reward for the winner of a contest for developing the best carbon sequestration scheme. That's right, $100 million dollars to lower atmospheric CO2. I think he knows what he's talking about - it is you who are confused. Now please stop wasting our time with this worthless and misleading distraction about nothing.

 

[petit_bateau]

And this is the same scene but from the cell suppliers' perspective :

 

[BlackS]

Sentiment on this board has turned again since $TSLA has been in the red for this week....Time to take a breather and be back when happier times return

 

[lafrisbee]

View attachment 636113 View attachment 636114 View attachment 636115

here are three tech stocks from the past week. Which one is TSLA? Whatever price action we're seeing in TSLA, it isn't unique.

TSLA is the middle one, BTW. Top one is AMZN, bottom one is AAPL

edit : I don't know how to do the Spoiler section thing...

So.... is it closing yet?
SOMETIMES the MM's don't have enough resources to cover the Pain.... but let's just wait till 4PM. Until then they yank the stock whicever way it makes them a penny. It is their job.

 

[Nocturnal]

GB revised again a 6-12 mo PT of $960 today. That is by no means bearish.

Guess he is looking to for quick outs on other stocks and reenter in 3-4 months? Weird move to be completely out as I wouldn't consider 6-12 mos long term.

Ok. I can't explain this except to speculate that GB hates BTC.

https://twitter.com/TeslaHab/status/1358820114364325888?s=19

I think it's clear that his decision was an emotional one. It happens to almost all of us. The key is to recognize that and admit it. Not sure he has. I don't see any other way he could go from a high target to randomly selling.

My personal example was when Elon tweeted "stonk is too high". That freaked me out (arguably rightly so) and I sold 25% of my holdings. After thinking on it and not seeing Elon do anything else that seemed "crazy" I swallowed my pride and bought back in. I think I did slightly better than when I sold but it could have gone the other way just as easily.