Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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GrandEnigma
Member
It does mean that Bezos is definitely poor now, unless SpaceX, Boring Company, and Neuralink are valued at $0?
Prunesquallor
His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
That would be a rather brittle model...
ZachF
Active Member
Who is that nobody?
Almost nothing he quoted Elon as saying there is true. He didn't say SpaceX was going to Mars this year, or that the Roadster is shipping this year. He also said you don't need computers to make nuclear weapons, which is true, because we didn't have much in the form of computers in 1945...
tcoombes
Supporting Member
My couch feels a lot less lumpy today - now I can sleep comfortably till Tuesday morning.
The satire comes from how you feel personally. I personally think Elon is a because his promises are big and half the time sci-fi. If personally I think he delivers than it's more satire. If I didn't think he delivers then he's just a snake oil sales man. I'm going to give Ben the benefit of the doubt and put him in that he liked it for the satirical reasons.
That is how many finance people model many companies though (not saying it is right or wrong and I don't mind them having to look at companies differently), and if they can't create their models or justifications... we can't act surprised when they sell or lash out like Gary is. He was pretty detailed in how he modeled out EPS and discounted back based on certain sales growth. When he doesn't get guidance to support that growth, his model has to retreat. He's still projecting heavy growth, but that took off a chunk from where he was before.
I agree those that model just as an automaker are missing the point, and this is a flaw in their reasoning. Them selling from not being able to model or evaluate the company does have an impact on all of our share prices. Long-term, the models don't really matter. What Tesla sells in Q1 is unlikely to drastically change what the company is in 2025, but these short term guidances do have an impact on the short term pricing action. IE if Tesla stated they were planning on selling 900k-1m in 2021, even if they knew they may not hit it and would be tough... we are probably looking at a 950-1000 share price today instead of 800.
It is up from 20.8% of the company as of the end of 2019. (So holding 1.6% more of the company.)
It certainly wasn't complex... it was less than a screen on a spreadsheet when he posted it!
wipster
Gold Member
I think Lycanthrope found them them hiding in his coach cushions when looking for money to buy shares... can't let cervesa like that go to waste!
Nocturnal
Supporting Member
Semi-well known guy in the Tesla and TSLAQ community. From what I gather he went from a fan to a hater sometime after selling his stock and hoping to buy back in lower or something. That was before my time on Twitter though. He has made fake videos about autopilot in the past as well.
So you are saying that having to do one extra math problem is preventing them from creating their model?
If that is the case they probably shouldn't be creating models.
NicoV
Supporting Member
Now I know what that large touchpad is for!
So you are saying that having to do one extra math problem is preventing them from creating their model?
If that is the case they probably shouldn't be creating models.
No... I'm not saying that. I'm saying being vague and saying 'we expect 50% growth yearly with 2021 having the potential for more than that' is vague enough they can't attribute a solid number to it. 750 is too low for what Tesla is clearly expecting, but the difference between 750k and 900k are big enough to create a short term issue. They wanted a small range guidance. Not a percentage growth that they plan to exceed this year.
Bought 100 this week at average of 806. Was aiming for 800 but missed. Oh well, still a discount.
If you look closely you will see that is what I have done, both from the car manufacturer perspective, and the cell supplier perspective. On the BEV competition thread at Tesla BEV Competition Developments you'll find both of them. In Microsoft Excel they are called treemaps. You call them mosaic charts. Personally I term them navajo blankets.
Stone_Watcher
Member
You all laugh but I have been holding doge since 2014!
Weekend OT: I built a gaming PC in 2013 and found Dogecoin in early 2014. Long story short I spent a total of two hours mining Dogecoin and decided the returns were laughable. I was awarded 2,107 doge coins worth a whopping 60 cents for my two hours of effort.
If only I knew that I was printing $80 an hour! Hindsight is 20/20
Sold all but 100 at 8 cents each.
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Cobos
S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Isn't that the whole point of being an analyst. If Tesla today knew exactly how many cars they would sell for 2021 then it wouldn't be a target but a statement of facts. Anything they say now is going to be guidance or a target. By definition it is uncertain, and by definition any analysts model based on that needs to do some analysing of that target. I'm loosing all respect for analysts, not that I had much to begin with. It seems whining is the major component of their job description not math skills or analytical skills.
Greg is an interesting case, he presents himself as a race car driver and instructor, so a professional driver that is used to performance and may have a wider range of experience as to what other higher end cars are like than I do.
He actually was advocating for Tesla for a long time, when he got his performance model 3, and it was blowing his mind. He would tweet things that I could totally relate to like 'Driving this is like having god mode in a computer game, you have the unfair advantage every time'.
But he also was getting frustrated with the quality of autopilot on the streets of SF, he expected a lot more, and found that when he spoke up, the fanboys that did not have the same experience or expectations don't really seem to acknowledge criticism and explain away issues and experiences that he had.
I can only speculate here, but it seemed that intensified when the stock price started to take off, and he fell prey to the negativity of teslaq which at least would listen to issues he identified. Maybe he sold Tesla stock too early and never got back in. Who knows, but it looked like a 'the grapes are too sour' kind of reaction to me. He always was worth following because he would say provocative things that sometimes were brilliant, but after this time period, he also started to repeat FUD and misrepresentations in a bitter way. Always talked about how he was going to buy a mach-e as the next car instead, but then in the end did express that he saw better value in the Model Y when it comes down to him making another purchase decision. And yet keeps repeating the mantra of teslas overvalued, FSD a lie, panel gaps, Ford and VW are going to start mass producing better cars any time now etc. He eventually blocked me on twitter when I gave my version of reality a few times. Not sure if that is why, or he adopted teslaq blacklists, or for other reasons, i.e. my political retweets etc.
I wish him all the healing he needs.
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