Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

2daMoon

Mostly Harmless
Nov 25, 2020
999
7,685
Terra
No... I'm not saying that. I'm saying being vague and saying 'we expect 50% growth yearly with 2021 having the potential for more than that' is vague enough they can't attribute a solid number to it. 750 is too low for what Tesla is clearly expecting, but the difference between 750k and 900k are big enough to create a short term issue. They wanted a small range guidance. Not a percentage growth that they plan to exceed this year.

Sure, it would be nice to have numbers. But, Elon and the board really don't know what the future might bring, do they? Especially after dealing with last year. Their recent experience with just what sort of unexpected things might happen (despite how they did what they intended anyway) is a lesson learned.

No representative of any growing company, particularly one where the media have a habit of ripping them up over minor deviations, is going to express in any concrete terms what they are expecting.

A friend once told me, "You get what you inspect, not what you expect" and I believe this is doubly true here.

Sure, folks are gonna gripe, and as SMR says so often "they'll have to think, and thinking's hard" for many of them. So why give the kiddies matches to play with and send them out to the hay barn?

The disappointment of these whiners is much better for the SP than the grand strokes at negativity they would spew given a little more information to spin.

If you are concerned about how not telling them will affect the SP, give some thought to how telling them has affected the SP in the past.

Tesla is once burned, twice shy, and I support their decision to not feed the Trolls.

Let them do the hard work, or, just put in some effort watching Tesla Daily and other folks who are giving them more precise numbers.
 
Last edited:

henchman24

Member
Dec 18, 2019
294
1,540
Wyoming
Isn't that the whole point of being an analyst. If Tesla today knew exactly how many cars they would sell for 2021 then it wouldn't be a target but a statement of facts. Anything they say now is going to be guidance or a target. By definition it is uncertain, and by definition any analysts model based on that needs to do some analysing of that target. I'm loosing all respect for analysts, not that I had much to begin with. It seems whining is the major component of their job description not math skills or analytical skills.

I mean yeah... I'd argue that any analyst just looking at the number of cars Tesla produces just misses the overall point. Those analysts certainly exist though and those numbers having more clarity would help them value. There is a reason traditional auto analysts simply have missed the valuation here and being too tied up with production and gross margin on that production is a big part of it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cobos and 2daMoon

henchman24

Member
Dec 18, 2019
294
1,540
Wyoming
Sure, it would be nice to have numbers. But, Elon and the board really don't know what the future might bring, do they? Especially after dealing with last year. Their recent experience with just what sort of unexpected things might happen (despite how they did what they intended anyway) is a lesson learned.

No representative of any growing company, particularly one where the media have a habit of ripping them up over minor deviations, is going to express in any concrete terms what they are expecting.

A friend once told me, "You get what you inspect, not what you expect" and I believe this is doubly true here.

Sure, folks are gonna gripe, and as SMR says so often they'll have to think and "thinking's hard" for many of them. So why give the kiddies matches to play with and send them out to the hay barn?

The disappointment of these whiners is much better for the SP than the grand strokes at negativity they would spew given a little more information to spin.

If you are concerned about how not telling them will affect the SP, give some thought to how telling them has affected the SP in the past.

Tesla is once burned, twice shy, and I support their decision to not feed the Trolls.

Let them do the hard work, or, just put in some effort watching Tesla Daily and other folks who are giving them more precise numbers.

Yup... don't disagree. We just shouldn't be shocked at when those types turn their back on Tesla like Gary did. He'll come back around and I think it will be when Q1 production exceed 180k as he can easily fit it into his viewpoint.
 
  • Disagree
  • Like
Reactions: AZRI11 and 2daMoon

capster

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,035
8,232
An island planet
Who is that nobody?

Almost nothing he quoted Elon as saying there is true. He didn't say SpaceX was going to Mars this year, or that the Roadster is shipping this year. He also said you don't need computers to make nuclear weapons, which is true, because we didn't have much in the form of computers in 1945...
Um, actually there were computers — people, mostly women.

Computing Power Used to Be Measured in 'Kilo-Girls'
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,477
19,934
USA
If he had just taken some profits and trimmed back his position 10% or 20%, I think that would have been understandable. When you completely sell out, the shift in endowment effect can radically alter your perception of value in ways that others can find hard to understand.

One of the most saddest things ever is when a tesla bull goes full retard and sells ALL their shares. It could be any reason, like thinking it is a near term top or fearing additional sell offs.

They want to buy back in with a bigger position than they had before when they sell.

They have to sell themselves on short narratives and hope for bad news with Musk and or Tesla.

Very unhealthy and sad.

I’ve seen it wreck quite a number of Tesla owners and investors. They sold and NEVER got back in.

I have had a moment like this. Happened once and never again. I failed when I had paper hands and a textured brain.

When things look bad, I’ve had to use some of the profits I’ve gained from selling puts and selling calls to get defensive puts. Never sell your shares.

When you buy puts like I did today to protect shares and the trade goes against you - that is a GOOD thing. That means my shares and short put positions are gaining.

Best just to be a smooth brained ape with diamond hands. Hold and buy the dips.

Gary Black deserves to buy in higher. Michael Burry needs to star in a sequel called the “The big short. Squeezed”.
 
Last edited:

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,504
Singapore
Would you be able to take a look at this thread, about reverse gamma squeeze, and share your comments?

My limited knowledge seems to say the points mentioned don’t actually point to any such dangerous setup for the stock.

I am not clear about this

@FrankSG ?

I agree with what @generalenthu posted. The delta on these options should be so low that they have effectively no influence on the stock movement.
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,477
19,934
USA
Here’s an info graphic for those not really understanding Bitcoin. Tesla should have went in with a 3x outsized position, took some of the table at those prices and let the current holdings ride.

But glad they did something. Acquiring BTC at 50k is still relatively peanuts for them.

E06AEBA8-1B6D-462A-A98E-2CDA2D81FD24.jpeg
 

buttershrimp

Click my signature to Go Mad Max Mode
Supporting Member
Jun 17, 2017
3,213
8,055
ATX
One of the most saddest things ever is when a tesla bull goes full retard and sells ALL their shares. It could be any reason, like thinking it is a near term top or fearing additional sell offs.

They want to buy back in with a bigger position than they had before when they sell.

They have to sell themselves on short narratives and hope for bad news with Musk and or Tesla.

Very unhealthy and sad.

I’ve seen it wreck quite a number of Tesla owners and investors. They sold and NEVER got back in.

I have had a moment like this. Happened once and never again. I failed when I had paper hands and a textured brain.

When things look bad, I’ve had to use some of the profits I’ve gained from selling puts and selling calls to get defensive puts. Never sell your shares.

When you buy puts like I did today to protect shares and the trade goes against you - that is a GOOD thing. That means my shares and short put positions are gaining.

Best just to be a smooth brained ape with diamond hands. Hold and buy the dips.

Gary Black deserves to buy in higher. Michael Burry needs to star in a sequel called the “The big short. Squeezed”.
You sir are my new role model.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Discoducky

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,440
37,690
Houston/Galveston
Jeez, show some class for God's sake...

ARK Investment Pushes Back on Upstart SPAC With Similar Name

On Feb. 5, a new blank-check or special-purpose acquisition company began trading. The SPAC’s name, Ark Global Acquisition Corp. , is similar to that of superstar fund manager Cathie Wood’s firm, ARK Investment Management LLC.

But Ark Global Acquisition Corp., based in Nashville, Tenn., has no connection to Ms. Wood or her New York-based firm.

The SPAC’s prospectus says it will “focus on US-based disruptive technology companies that we believe have significant growth prospects and the potential to generate attractive returns.”

The SPAC, trading under the ticker symbol ARKIU, has also requested the tickers ARKI and ARKIW. It gained nearly 10% in its first three trading days.
 

Dancing Lemur

Hoopy Frood
Supporting Member
Aug 14, 2020
297
3,699
Massachusetts, US
Jeez, show some class for God's sake...

ARK Investment Pushes Back on Upstart SPAC With Similar Name


On Feb. 5, a new blank-check or special-purpose acquisition company began trading. The SPAC’s name, Ark Global Acquisition Corp. , is similar to that of superstar fund manager Cathie Wood’s firm, ARK Investment Management LLC.

But Ark Global Acquisition Corp., based in Nashville, Tenn., has no connection to Ms. Wood or her New York-based firm.

The SPAC’s prospectus says it will “focus on US-based disruptive technology companies that we believe have significant growth prospects and the potential to generate attractive returns.”

The SPAC, trading under the ticker symbol ARKIU, has also requested the tickers ARKI and ARKIW. It gained nearly 10% in its first three trading days.

It worked for Tiziana...
 
  • Funny
Reactions: AZRI11

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top