Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Mmm.... if people thought some outflow this week was due to Gary Black..... Pretty sure the legacy of Berkshire would reverse that and then some. It just is more influential and you know what, it took Elon buying BTC for me to buy some, so for the hardcore BRK followers out there, I'll be curious to see if it's true.

People that believe there was impactful outflow from TSLA due to Gary Black are delusional and need help (or should stop doing drugs).

If the Berkshire news is actually real, it will definitely cause a rally in the share price. Anytime Berkshire reveals a stake in a company, that stock relies just off of that news alone

Interesting. Probably a moot point in this case.

 

[EVWatcher]

For the record, the consensus is whether or not Berkshire got into Tesla we should have a definitive answer by market open Tuesday or is it possible this will drag on like the s and p 500 fiasco

So, will we know for sure by Tuesday? I understand that they have 45 days to report. Are the caveats or other circumstances that I don’t know about or is the moment of truth here?

 

[tcoombes]

Mmm.... if people thought some outflow this week was due to Gary Black..... Pretty sure the legacy of Berkshire would reverse that and then some. It just is more influential and you know what, it took Elon buying BTC for me to buy some, so for the hardcore BRK followers out there, I'll be curious to see if it's true.

GB = Irrelevant

 

[Artful Dodger]

He also said you don't need computers to make nuclear weapons, which is true, because we didn't have much in the form of computers in 1945...

OT:

Spoiler: Hydrocodes

The hydrocodes for the first PU gadget were computed via "T-6 IBM computations" beginning in 1943 (when human 'computer' staff could no longer keep up the pace).

Nuclear Weapons Computational Physics (Technical Report) | OSTI.GOV

 

[kanweg]

I think Lycanthrope found them them hiding in his coach cushions when looking for money to buy shares... can't let cervesa like that go to waste!

I think that beer would still be safe in the couch whereas it is likely that Lycanthrope got up in the middle in the night and take it to waste.

remember folks, beer is not an option (even if you think it calls you. Don’t put it in the fridge (depending on the type of beer, of course)).

 

[UkNorthampton]

Wait the stock market can go down?

I just started investing, my grandparents let me put all their retirement money into TSLA.

Tell Stan & Phyl it's in safer hands than before.

 

[UkNorthampton]

No... I'm not saying that. I'm saying being vague and saying 'we expect 50% growth yearly with 2021 having the potential for more than that' is vague enough they can't attribute a solid number to it. 750 is too low for what Tesla is clearly expecting, but the difference between 750k and 900k are big enough to create a short term issue. They wanted a small range guidance. Not a percentage growth that they plan to exceed this year.

Then analysts have been given a wonderful opportunity to add value by using their deep understanding to advise their clients.

 

[Matias]

What should we think about this? Question is of course not Tesla specific.

 

[Matias]

What should we think about this? Question is of course not Tesla specific.

View attachment 636335

There might be a huge bubble on stock markets

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

 

[petit_bateau]

Given that you are breaking down the supply by OEM and supplier, you may want to consider a mosaic chart (Mosaic plot - Wikipedia). This would make is easier to see how for example LG is a key supplier to each OEM and how that fraction from LG varies by client.

jhm, My previous answer to you was incorrect. My apologies. I now appreciate there is a difference between a Mosaic chart and a Navajo blanket chart. The mosaic plot is not specifically catered for in excel but as usual Peltier covers how to create one at Marimekko Charts - Peltier Tech Blog where it seems they are also called Marimekko charts, so both have alternate textile names I will have a look at this further if I get time. Once again my apologies.

 

[Maarten]

What should we think about this? Question is of course not Tesla specific.

View attachment 636335

It yells inflation at us (pun intended).
Look at the countries that printed money in abundance and see what happened.
Enough other examples in history (and nowadays).
For me one more motivation to HODL.

 

[Matias]

It yells inflation at us (pun intended).
Look at the countries that printed money in abundance and see what happened.
Enough other examples in history (and nowadays).
For me one more motivation to HODL.

At some time it will be necessary for fed to increase interest rates and it will crash stock market, I believe.

 

[OrthoSurg]

There might be a huge bubble on stock markets

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

The only problem I see here is that Buffet indicator is undervaluing the leveraging of profits and equity shift that could be triggered by disruptive technologies from AI/computing power/automation.

But I believe he is right at some point all the money flew in the stock market because there are no other profitable options to hedge against currency depreciation.

 

[Singuy]

It yells inflation at us (pun intended).
Look at the countries that printed money in abundance and see what happened.
Enough other examples in history (and nowadays).
For me one more motivation to HODL.

Money is just a digital number. The worth of a country's money is not tied to anything besides its desirability of its good and services. As long as the country keep producing goods and services that is desirable, like new technology from Tesla and Apple, the currency will remains strong. Most country with a currency collapse from money printing was due a massive drop in gdp and a massive increase in money supply. Venezuela is the perfect example.

 

[Matias]

Money is just a digital number. The worth of a country's money is not tied to anything besides its desirability of its good and services. As long as the country keep producing goods and services that is desirable, like new technology from Tesla and Apple, the currency will remains strong. Most country with a currency collapse from money printing was due a massive drop in gdp and a massive increase in money supply. Venezuela is the perfect example.

But when money supply increases faster than gdp, isn’t it mandatory that it will lead to inflation?

 

[Singuy]

But when money supply increases faster than gdp, isn’t it mandatory that it will lead to inflation?

Gdp is now being powered by ai and automation. Remember how "we are at our highest productivity but no wage increases" verbiage? Guess money printing is making up for some if that deficit. It's almost like we are secretly moving toward to universal basic income but not.

The crazy thing about the US being the tech center is that we constantly disrupt ourselves. Zoom for example decreased the desirability for oil. Countries relying on oil have their gdp suffer, however the money that funneled out of oil went into our tech companies so nothing much changed except we continue to suck gdp from other nations that are one trick ponies. Tesla is a perfect example at killing Germany's gdp hence they better open their arms wide open for giga Berlin.

 

[2daMoon]

Any investor concerned about a Central Bank's affect on the money supply, and upon stock prices, should watch this video. This is the best description of the mechanics of the behind-the-scenes workings of the banking system I have viewed.

TLDW: Fed "money printing" having a relationship with inflation is a misconception.
​

Ben Felix' channel on YouTube, Common Sense Investing, has other content that investors may find useful. Check it out.

 

[Pras]

There might be a huge bubble on stock markets

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

Two issues with this “model” from buffet.

- First biggest caps are global so they should show global gdp not US. Also US economy is not as outsized as in past when compared to global large economies.


- Second, interests rates have been lowest historically and have been on downtrend.

 

[lascavarian]

But when money supply increases faster than gdp, isn’t it mandatory that it will lead to inflation?

Seems to me it depends. Right now excess liquidity is going into savings and some chasing equities. Yields are low but ticking up a bit. Real estate is appreciating but not so much in urban areas or commercial. Unemployment is high.

What has happened in the past may not map well into the future where societal changes abound. Social network inspired fear is a newish thing. We don’t know when or if the savings rate comes down. We don’t know if increasing automation and technological efficiency has permanently changed unemployment rates.

If there is a better place than disruptive equities going forward, I don’t see it. Seems to me equity will take a hit if bond rates rise but not all equities equally.

We are possibly facing a time of falling population, diminishing scarcity and falling labor rates where our source of historical reference is weak. Growth becomes rare and the new store of value in my view.

 

[Words of HABIT]

If the Berkshire news is actually real, it will definitely cause a rally in the share price. Anytime Berkshire reveals a stake in a company, that stock rallies just off of that news alone

Berkshire Hathaway, first bought 10M shares of Apple in May 2016 for $232M.
As of September 30th, 2020, BH held 965M shares of Apple currently worth $131B.

So if BH shows they initiated their purchase of Tesla, it will not be a one time event. BH are long term investors and will likely continue to purchase shares going forward at higher costs (similar to their AAPL position which has growth 10X in quantity of shares owned since their original purchase).

We will find out by February 16th if BH now holds Tesla. If not, it is only a matter of time before they do. BH was many years late on Apple. Apple released their orginal iPhone June 2007 and BH waited nine years to get on board. Still BH have done very nicely with Apple, as they will do so with Tesla. It's just a matter of time.