Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

I watched this the other day. They seem a bit spicy about how things went down- especially Martin.

Not really surprising since he was kicked out of the company by Elon and involved in a lawsuit, which is why he had to hold back from saying certain things. Right or wrong it can't feel good to be removed from the company you started.

 

[WarpedOne]

In 2017 Elon renamed Tesla motors into Tesla.
In my personal view he is a founder of Tesla, modern Tesla.
And funder of original Tesla motors.

He is quite verbose in critiquing the roadster and yet he was fully onboard with that plan and also the cause of many departures from Elise design.
Anyone still remembers the lowering of door sills?

What Elon says is true, but as always, it is not the whole truth. Nothing said can ever be the whole truth.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla to Build an Electric Vehicle Factory in Karnataka, India, Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa Says

Tesla will build an electric vehicle factory in Karnataka, Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa said today. The statement was a part of the list of benefits promised to Karnataka in the Union Budget. This is the first announcement that an American manufacturer will build a manufacturing facility in Karnataka.

Gaurav Gupta, Additional Chief Secretary, Commerce and Industries in Karnataka told The News Minute that the timeframe and manner in which Tesla will operate in India is yet to be decided.

Well there it is, our next giga-factory will be in India!

 

[JRP3]

Anyone still remembers the lowering of door sills?

Yes, seemed like a big mistake to change that on the initial production run and caused avoidable delays.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I get this could be an unpopular question but should we not have seen some new S/X models delivered by now?

It's over a month since the production was supposed to get started again. With no deliveries yet the production so far can't be more than the low hundreds can it? Even if the manufacturing ramps up faster from here this can't be good for margins in Q1.

Seems like a really slow ramp up to me.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I get this could be an unpopular question but should we not have seen some new S/X models delivered by now?

It's over a month since the production was supposed to get started again. With no deliveries yet the production so far can't be more than the low hundreds can it? Even if the manufacturing ramps up faster from here this can't be good for margins in Q1.

Seems like a really slow ramp up to me.

No one should have expected production to ramp back up to full production for the first couple of weeks, so that puts it at end of Jan. Then you have to take into account that if they want any deliveries on non-west coast locations, they have to ship those out first which takes another couple of weeks. I've expected deliveries to start to be reported the 3rd/4th week of Feb

 

[Buckminster]

Besties were happy enough with Vlad:

For me the biggest issue that they brought out was his apparent lack of understanding that stopping the WSB folk from buying caused the SP to not squeeze. That was not good enough.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

No one should have expected production to ramp back up to full production for the first couple of weeks, so that puts it at end of Jan. Then you have to take into account that if they want any deliveries on non-west coast locations, they have to ship those out first which takes another couple of weeks. I've expected deliveries to start to be reported the 3rd/4th week of Feb

Who has been expecting "full production for the first couple of weeks"?. I didn't say I expected that and I haven't seen anyone else do so either. But if it was going to plan shouldn't there have been some production? And why should they want to start with non-west coast locations? From my memory every other roll-out has started on the west-coast.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Who has been expecting "full production for the first couple of weeks"?. I didn't say I expected that and I haven't seen anyone else do so either. But if it was going to plan shouldn't there have been some production? And why should they want to start with non-west coast locations? From my memory every other roll-out has started on the west-coast.

I didn't say that you were saying they should be at full production. You were wondering why we haven't seen any deliveries yet. There could be some of the new S on trucks to the east coast right now for all we know. I don't know of anyone tracking Fremont daily/hourly outgoing trucks.

If they want any deliveries in the mid-west or east coast for Q1, they have to ship those out first. There's been multiple reports of people being told to expect the new S and even the new X who are on the east coast before Q1 ends. This follows Tesla's usual pattern of shipping production to locations farthest away from first and then doing deliveries on the west coast in the last 2-3 weeks of the quarter.

 

[SpaceCash]

I get this could be an unpopular question but should we not have seen some new S/X models delivered by now?

It's over a month since the production was supposed to get started again. With no deliveries yet the production so far can't be more than the low hundreds can it? Even if the manufacturing ramps up faster from here this can't be good for margins in Q1.

Seems like a really slow ramp up to me.

I kind of agree, I expected to see some new S's by now just because they said they would start to deliver those in Feb and we're halfway thru.

But it doesn't bother me yet.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I didn't say that you were saying they should be at full production. You were wondering why we haven't seen any deliveries yet. There could be some of the new S on trucks to the east coast right now for all we know. I don't know of anyone tracking Fremont daily/hourly outgoing trucks.

If they want any deliveries in the mid-west or east coast for Q1, they have to ship those out first. There's been multiple reports of people being told to expect the new S and even the new X who are on the east coast before Q1 ends. This follows Tesla's usual pattern of shipping production to locations farthest away from first and then doing deliveries on the west coast in the last 2-3 weeks of the quarter.

I hope you are right but at the very least this doesn't seem to be a 'better than expected' ramp-up. Also now I would expect twitter to report sightings of a model S on a trailer anywhere and we haven't seen that either. So if any has been shipped from Fremont already it seems unlikely to be a huge number.

 

[phantasms]

Is there any website that can show a full days TSLA chart to the minute for several days back, a month perhaps?

Curious is there’s a pattern with the 10:15 10:30 10:45 lows.

Clearly a group of people know when the low should be on certain days. It would be nice if we knew as well.

 

[Christine69420]

I'm disappointed - no drone videos from Tesla Bengaluru yet.

However - Dave Lee has an informative one about Tesla in India - from 4 months ago:

 

[vikings123]

I get this could be an unpopular question but should we not have seen some new S/X models delivered by now?

It's over a month since the production was supposed to get started again. With no deliveries yet the production so far can't be more than the low hundreds can it? Even if the manufacturing ramps up faster from here this can't be good for margins in Q1.

Seems like a really slow ramp up to me.

Agreed. I’m surprised not to see any deliveries or videos of the refreshed X/S showing up in the service centers. I’m still waiting for the additional details Elon talked about it in the earnings call.

I imagine total S/X production/deliveries will be less than 4K in Q4. Even the 4K seems a high estimate given we are already at the quarter midpoint.

 

[capster]

There might be a huge bubble on stock markets

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

A bubble is not quite what the article concludes:

"Today's investors need to seek a return from somewhere, and low interest rates are forcing them to seek that return from riskier assets, effectively pumping up the stock market. While this doesn't justify the high Buffett Indicator on any fundamental basis, it does suggest that the market today is less likely to quickly collapse like it did in 2000, and that it may have reason to stay abnormally high for as long as interest rates are abnormally low."

 

[Singuy]

I get this could be an unpopular question but should we not have seen some new S/X models delivered by now?

It's over a month since the production was supposed to get started again. With no deliveries yet the production so far can't be more than the low hundreds can it? Even if the manufacturing ramps up faster from here this can't be good for margins in Q1.

Seems like a really slow ramp up to me.

Elon said deliveries later this month on Joe Rogan.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also revenue and margin-wise.....if Tesla prioritizes Plaid models over the LR for Q1, deliveries could be lower while revenue comes in higher thanks to the higher revenue/margin per Plaid Model S. I'd have to assume they're prioritizing Plaid orders for the first couple of months......hopefully.....

Edit. In fact I just checked and if you order a LR Model S, expected delivery time is 6-12 weeks. If you order Plaid, 4-8 weeks. So it does seem like Plaid gets priority for right now

 

[Mo City]

Tesla to Build an Electric Vehicle Factory in Karnataka, India, Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa Says

Tesla will build an electric vehicle factory in Karnataka, Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa said today. The statement was a part of the list of benefits promised to Karnataka in the Union Budget. This is the first announcement that an American manufacturer will build a manufacturing facility in Karnataka.

Gaurav Gupta, Additional Chief Secretary, Commerce and Industries in Karnataka told The News Minute that the timeframe and manner in which Tesla will operate in India is yet to be decided.

Well there it is, our next giga-factory will be in India!

From the same article: Gaurav Gupta, Additional Chief Secretary, Commerce and Industries in Karnataka told The News Minute that the timeframe and manner in which Tesla will operate in India is yet to be decided.

Since there is no time frame, I doubt the next GF is built in India. My guess is Tesla will pull the trigger on another location later this year or early 2022.

It may be quite some time for a Tesla factory in India.

 

[Christine69420]

Steven Mark Ryan thinks a Tesla factory in India will focus on Tesla Energy:

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

There might be a huge bubble on stock markets

Buffett Indicator Shows Stock Market is Overvalued

Do you know the story of the boy who cried bubbl... eh, wolf too many times?

Here’s you are in 2013 (!) saying TSLA’s stock price was a bubble:

I'm trying to figure out, whether there is a bubble in Tesla's stock price. Tesla's market cap is 25B, source Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Porsche imo is a quite good comparison, because it is a small premium car sellers and also growing. Porsche's market cap is 24B, source PORSCHE AUTOM.HLDG VZO (PAH3.DE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Porsche sold 38500 cars 1Q2014, source http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=857
Tesla estimates 6400 cars sold 1Q2014, source Tesla’s Musk Accelerating Vehicle Output Through 2014

So Porche's market cap/cars sold 1Q014 is approximately 600 000$, for Tesla the same figure is 3921875$. So 6 times bigger.

For me there seems to be a bubble.

And here you did it again for the general economy in August 2019, right before TSLA started its run from 250 to 4500 (pre-split)

Is that a thing again? Last time I heard that at the peak of the dot.com bubble. Needless to say, couple of years later it was evident that “New Economy” was still old economy with recessions and other boring stuff.

Ofcourse you could be right this time. But being wary of a bubble all the time is what prevents people from making big or even decent gains in the stock market.