JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Could be but it's only part of the picture. The great nutrient collapse
Further discussion if desired should probably take place in the climate thread Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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We have been in a deflationary cycle for a long time. Increases in money supply has not been enough to offset decreases in money velocity. Money supply is not the only thing that determine prices. If you have $1 in the economy that is going back and forth nonstop between all the participants, that $1 in theory can support an unlimited amount of value creation. If you have $2 in the economy that only goes from the employer to the employee and stays there because the employee fears unemployment, health issue, or retirement concerns, that $2 is basically dead money. Extreme example to show you how the people’s willingness to spend money is the bigger driver toward inflation than the money supply. Since the early 2000s people have been saving more and spending less. Yes inflation and the resulting interest hike can crash the market but the world economy is too sick to worry about that. Money printing is not the problem but a solution.
jdw
Supporting Member
An interesting, if long, historical/analytical read on money supply & velocity as it happened in Germany in the 20's and America in the 70's. Especially interesting as it relates to interest rates, politics and taxation.
https://recision.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/jens-parsson-dying-of-money-24.pdf
"Money quantity and velocity theoretically could move independently of one another, but in practice they do not. Quantity leads, and velocity follows. At the beginning of an inflationary cycle, velocity declines while money quantity increases, thereby offsetting one another and masking the true inflationary potential. This happened during the wars in both Germany and America. It happened also in Germany's prosperous expansion of 1920. We saw why this happened in our simple example, because money holders were temporarily willing to hold their excess money, slowing down velocity and leaving prices unchanged. Later, in the mid-course of an inflationary cycle, money quantity and velocity both increase, thereby compounding the inflationary effects of one another."
and ...
"Money has a well-known dual function. One function is to serve as a medium of exchange to help match up the sellers and buyers of various kinds of values without the need for exchange in kind, or barter. The other function is to serve as a store of value in itself. The first function is money in motion, the second is money standing still. The only truly legitimate function of money is the first, the exchange function. Without the need for a medium of exchange, there would be no need for money. As stores of value, other kinds of property are just as good or better. Money is not properly a store of value because it has no intrinsic value of its own. It has no utility except in exchange. Money which is being used as a store of value is money which is bars de combat for the time being. Nevertheless, the use of money as a store of value is traditional and can easily be tolerated, provided that it is adjusted for."
https://recision.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/jens-parsson-dying-of-money-24.pdf
"Money quantity and velocity theoretically could move independently of one another, but in practice they do not. Quantity leads, and velocity follows. At the beginning of an inflationary cycle, velocity declines while money quantity increases, thereby offsetting one another and masking the true inflationary potential. This happened during the wars in both Germany and America. It happened also in Germany's prosperous expansion of 1920. We saw why this happened in our simple example, because money holders were temporarily willing to hold their excess money, slowing down velocity and leaving prices unchanged. Later, in the mid-course of an inflationary cycle, money quantity and velocity both increase, thereby compounding the inflationary effects of one another."
and ...
"Money has a well-known dual function. One function is to serve as a medium of exchange to help match up the sellers and buyers of various kinds of values without the need for exchange in kind, or barter. The other function is to serve as a store of value in itself. The first function is money in motion, the second is money standing still. The only truly legitimate function of money is the first, the exchange function. Without the need for a medium of exchange, there would be no need for money. As stores of value, other kinds of property are just as good or better. Money is not properly a store of value because it has no intrinsic value of its own. It has no utility except in exchange. Money which is being used as a store of value is money which is bars de combat for the time being. Nevertheless, the use of money as a store of value is traditional and can easily be tolerated, provided that it is adjusted for."
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Words of HABIT
Member
If 3/7ths of the USD money supply has been printed in 2020 alone, would the real inflation rate of USD fiat currency be 43% rather than the +-2% reported?
It is no wonder that crypto currencies are shining.
Looks like Canada beat US to the punch bowl in offering the first ETF tracking the Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gained prominance due to Elon's endorsement of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar, as cited in the article.
First North American bitcoin ETF launching in Canada
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Odd that the mods decided my initial response to this attack was "nasty" but have allowed this completely inaccurate screed to remain. Go back and read my actual posts and tell me where I said Elon "has gone off the deep end" or anything close to that. Further, you keep repeating the same simplistic idea that a faster growing plant is better but that is not always the case.
The great nutrient collapse
Nutrition levels will drop as carbon dioxide rises: study
If you wish to have rational discussion on the topic we can continue in the climate thread.
Chunky Jr.
Supporting Member
That's what a lot of people were saying in 2008 and 2009 and it didn't happen
jdw
Supporting Member
It does seem so ... historically when a government takes on debt to pay bills that cannot be covered by taxation they ultimately handle that debt by inflating the currency. How well they manage & control the resulting inflation makes all the difference in the final outcome.
In the end, inflation is just another form of taxation, one that no one can escape except perhaps people that own real property. As always, the real bag holders are people without real assets.
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Silent Ludicrosy
Supporting Member
I don't think so. Watch the video I posted earlier this morning for a good explanation of how that works. What the FedRes provides for bank liquidity does not have an affect on the money in circulation. They are not connected.
People and businesses borrowing from banks is what produces inflation in the money supply we use to buy things. The 2% figure is accurate. When borrowing from banks is down, inflation is down.
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Christine600
Supporting Member
A new video from WuWa and Giga Shanghai: Central Area Construction Progress\Tesla gigafactory 3
...has this exchange in the comments:
Andy Granger:
Happy Chinese New Year, Wuwa. By the way, which new building will be the R&D centre? Tom Zhu said this week it is under consruction at the factory.
WU WA:
Happy Chinese New Year,Andy Granger
Which neighbourhood are you referring to as an R&D centre? The battery R&D centre seems to be together with the charging pile factory, which is 6 km away from the factory. If it is the R&D centre of the whole Tesla Motors, at present, there are two large buildings under construction, one is located in the centre of the factory, and the other is the northeast site of the factory. The construction of Tesla's Shanghai factory has always been kept secret, and no exact information is available.
...has this exchange in the comments:
Andy Granger:
Happy Chinese New Year, Wuwa. By the way, which new building will be the R&D centre? Tom Zhu said this week it is under consruction at the factory.
WU WA:
Happy Chinese New Year,Andy Granger
Which neighbourhood are you referring to as an R&D centre? The battery R&D centre seems to be together with the charging pile factory, which is 6 km away from the factory. If it is the R&D centre of the whole Tesla Motors, at present, there are two large buildings under construction, one is located in the centre of the factory, and the other is the northeast site of the factory. The construction of Tesla's Shanghai factory has always been kept secret, and no exact information is available.
I stand corrected.
That was very instructive indeed.
Feel a little bit better that I am among professors that were also wrong about this.
Still, it depends on the circumstances?
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jdw
Supporting Member
In 2008 the increase in money supply was mostly replacing money that disappeared due to wall street shenanigans. This time it's financing government shenanigans.
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feigen66
Member
Money is just a token stored in the databases, and there are two types: centralized (Central Banks) vs discentralized (Ledgers). Not much choices left.
All the debate on the environmental ground is mooted since USD has been primary units of crude oil trades and its monetary policy has been the engine of wars. To maintain the value of USD, there was countless wars being waged. The value of USD, in essence, is largely backed by the consumption of oil.
The only reason that Tesla needs to invest its cash is to maintain the buying raw materials to accelerate its mission. Just look at how chip supply shortage disrupts the entire industry, it doesn't take much imagination to predict the impact of possible inflation, even by just a few percentage, to impact Tesla's operation.
If Tesla truly want to make money, it can jack up the price of solar roof and Model 3 but they didn't. It kept passing down the saving to customers.
Think about long terms. If you were Elon, what would you do to keep your supply chain alive to maintain 50% YoY growth to fund your mission?
You could be yeppie vegan, 99% environmental friendly by only breathing oxygen but you can't change the world this way. That's the reason all the EVs beforehand failed because they are just "environmental friendly".
All the debate on the environmental ground is mooted since USD has been primary units of crude oil trades and its monetary policy has been the engine of wars. To maintain the value of USD, there was countless wars being waged. The value of USD, in essence, is largely backed by the consumption of oil.
The only reason that Tesla needs to invest its cash is to maintain the buying raw materials to accelerate its mission. Just look at how chip supply shortage disrupts the entire industry, it doesn't take much imagination to predict the impact of possible inflation, even by just a few percentage, to impact Tesla's operation.
If Tesla truly want to make money, it can jack up the price of solar roof and Model 3 but they didn't. It kept passing down the saving to customers.
Think about long terms. If you were Elon, what would you do to keep your supply chain alive to maintain 50% YoY growth to fund your mission?
You could be yeppie vegan, 99% environmental friendly by only breathing oxygen but you can't change the world this way. That's the reason all the EVs beforehand failed because they are just "environmental friendly".
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All discussions of the money printing issues cannot ignore the current status of the USD as the reserve currency in the world.
Any arguments that draw on the effects in countries of past money printing should be focused on those that were the reserve currency at the time. Especially if the ultimate outcome was the loss of reserve currency status. These examples are hard to find....
Any arguments that draw on the effects in countries of past money printing should be focused on those that were the reserve currency at the time. Especially if the ultimate outcome was the loss of reserve currency status. These examples are hard to find....
Aggregates matter. The actions the FED took in 2008 and 2008 were never fully reversed.
And here we are sitting at zero percent again for an indefinite period of time.
When money costs you zero percent you can borrow an infinite amount and not pay anything back at all. Just keep rolling over the principal. Would that common people had access to this type of accounting.
The question begs: does a zero percent interest policy ever have to end?
I am not smart enough for this question.
I can only fall back to truisms:
All things are temporary.
Woo hoo!
Conclusion? Still shareholders...
Conclusion? Still shareholders...
mekberg
Member
I watched this the other day. They seem a bit spicy about how things went down- especially Martin.
Nocturnal
Supporting Member
And let's be real. Nobody on this forum can say jack about environmental costs. Sure we all care about it (or almost all of us) and are making changes but if we cared THAT much we wouldn't be driving cars, or taking vacations, or living in large homes. Glass houses and all that.
Chunky Jr.
Supporting Member
The tweaks they made to Model 3 interior are now in the Fremont Ys
Tesla’s “Refreshed” version of the Model Y crossover is hitting U.S. showrooms. The 2021 version of the all-electric crossover is equipped with many of the same features as the Model 3 “Refresh” that was rolled out last year. After initial revisions were spotted in China, the new-and-improved interior arrived at U.S. showrooms.
Tesla Model Y with 'Refreshed' interior arrives at U.S. showrooms
Tesla’s “Refreshed” version of the Model Y crossover is hitting U.S. showrooms. The 2021 version of the all-electric crossover is equipped with many of the same features as the Model 3 “Refresh” that was rolled out last year. After initial revisions were spotted in China, the new-and-improved interior arrived at U.S. showrooms.
Tesla Model Y with 'Refreshed' interior arrives at U.S. showrooms
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