Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

At some time it will be necessary for fed to increase interest rates and it will crash stock market, I believe.

The Fed has the pedal to the metal for a reason: There is a global pandemic weighing on the world’s economies. We’ll all be very lucky if that gets resolved within the next year or two.

The Fed is unlikely to slam on the brakes without thought about the affect on the market.

There is inflation now, just look at prices for premium real estate, and it is conceivable that the Fed could hit the brakes at some point to avoid losing control of inflation.

However, the challenge would be to predict the timing of such an about face. Which is just another kind of timing the market.

There’s also the underlying deflationary boom that Cathie Wood speaks about and the energy transformation to factor in.

All told, I remain convinced that holding as much TSLA as possible for as long as possible is about as good of a strategy as there is.

tl;dr: Never argue with the Fed. Keep your TSLA and someday it will keep you.

Not advice.

 

[Matias]

Do you know the story of the boy who cried bubbl... eh, wolf too many times?

Here’s you are in 2013 (!) saying TSLA’s stock price was a bubble:



And here you did it again for the general economy in August 2019, right before TSLA started its run from 250 to 4500 (pre-split)



Ofcourse you could be right this time. But being on your guard all the time is what prevents people from making huge or even decent gains in the stock market.

You’re right. But luckily I got into tsla 2015 and hold Tesla shares after those posts and sold only after split with approximately 800% gains. Of course I have regretted it afterwards

But perfect timing is impossible. All my TSLA profits are now cash and it is about 40% of my all investments. I believe I won’t invest that cash to market during this bull cycle.

btw here’s imho great article from
Jeremy Grantham

Waiting for the Last Dance

 

[Eugene Ash]

Gdp is now being powered by ai and automation.

We have not even begun scratching the surface on AI yet. It will be a fascinating decade. AI will begin to free up labor with all consequences....

 

[goinfraftw]

Reminder: We haven't gone through a month, of a 4 year term, with a competent President of the United States focused on averting climate change.

If you want to do anything useful, regardless of type of organization, I think its most important to get your house in order first before embarking on bold actions.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Do you know the story of the boy who cried bubbl... eh, wolf too many times?

Here’s you are in 2013 (!) saying TSLA’s stock price was a bubble:



And here you did it again for the general economy in August 2019, right before TSLA started its run from 250 to 4500 (pre-split)



Ofcourse you could be right this time. But being wary of a bubble all the time is what prevents people from making big or even decent gains in the stock market.

@Right_Said_Fred - clearly Tesla market cap of $25 billion is a bubble. A very small one. Like a bubble in a glass of beer.

I can't imagine any other company being bigger than Tesla over time. It'll take a while to overtake Apple & some state energy companies, but Tesla is developing, not stagnating or (for energy companies) about to be overwhelmed by lack of demand & debts/liabilities

Peter Lynch: “far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.”

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Do you know the story of the boy who cried bubbl... eh, wolf too many times?

Here’s you are in 2013 (!) saying TSLA’s stock price was a bubble:



And here you did it again for the general economy in August 2019, right before TSLA started its run from 250 to 4500 (pre-split)



Ofcourse you could be right this time. But being wary of a bubble all the time is what prevents people from making big or even decent gains in the stock market.

Here's a relevant example from literally today:
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ling8b/why_cathie_wood_might_be_right_and_why_tsla_is/

Some guy masterfully trolling in that one, bringing up Thanos as some kind of guru. Pretty hilarious how much it got upvoted, it's funny that only a few years ago it would have been taken seriously because TSLA was going to be bankwupt literally any minute now!

 

[corduroy]

Does anyone remember how previous factory announcements have moved the SP, if at all? Wondering if India will be a catalyst on Tuesday.

 

[GOVA]

Also, in terms of refreshes/updates. We have not seen the updated Cybertruck yet.

Elon only mentioned that they made ~3% size reduction to fit in tunnels.

 

[buttershrimp]

Official announcement of India factory would be scintillating for stock price, and a better development for the planet.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla playing 5D chess here, India and China are currently political, economic, and military arch-enemies. Having a factory in both nations serves as a hedge against the other nation moving against you or your interests, especially China who basically are letting Giga Shanghai exist because their goal is to steal every bit of Tesla's technology and use it to dominate the electric car future.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Steven Mark Ryan thinks a Tesla factory in India will focus on Tesla Energy:

It seems weird that the local government announced before Tesla. I’ll believe it when I hear it from Elon.

 

[Unpilot]

You’re right. But luckily I got into tsla 2015 and hold Tesla shares after those posts and sold only after split with approximately 800% gains. Of course I have regretted it afterwards

But perfect timing is impossible. All my TSLA profits are now cash and it is about 40% of my all investments. I believe I won’t invest that cash to market during this bull cycle.

btw here’s imho great article from
Jeremy Grantham

Waiting for the Last Dance

I have found that no matter how hard I try....I can't shake confirmational bias.

If one looks hard enough one can see just about anything one can imagine.

Even space lasers starting forest fires.

With all the sources of information available I guess the best one can hope for is that they are not too wrong.

 

[2daMoon]

It seems weird that the local government announced before Tesla. I’ll believe it when I hear it from Elon.

The good thing about this is how it may indicate that India's officials are motivated to make concessions for bringing Tesla in, similar to the way Shanghai unfolded once Elon and Co. were able to negotiate an equitable arrangement.

Perhaps they could start with an Energy factory, providing employment and accelerating India's (already brisk) migration to renewables. Then, due to making such a good-faith investment in India, be granted some significant leeway on the high auto import tax.

What if they are able to arrange to import cars for a reasonable price predicated on how they will soon be building an India tailored model in-country?

Cha-ching!

 

[Mike Smith]

If you show someone a complex machine that's only 20% built, they won't understand its purpose or value or why anyone would want it. That's the case with Tesla. It's not even close to finished yet so most investors don't understand it. The SP should continue to increase as more and more pieces and functions are added and investors get a better idea of what this thing is, until around 2030 when it's finished: the best money making machine the world has ever seen.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If you show someone a complex machine that's only 20% built, they won't understand its purpose or value or why anyone would want it. That's the case with Tesla. It's not even close to finished yet so most investors don't understand it. The SP should continue to increase as more and more pieces and functions are added and investors get a better idea of what this thing is, until around 2030 when it's finished - the best money making machine the world has ever seen.

What's wild is Elon is doing all this just so he has the money he needs to fund the Mars colony. His entire life is and was this singular goal. One day we'll drive past statues of him in our self-driving Teslas on the way to the SpaceX spaceport to board the next Mars rocket to visit the colony as tourists.

 

[phantasms]

OMG

ps first lol

so much for my Friday to Monday bet.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1360697159767711749?s=21

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

OMG

ps first lol

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1360697159767711749?s=21

These three day weekends are clearly too much for Elon to handle.

 

[goinfraftw]

I don't find any of this funny, tbh

 

[Singuy]

Tesla playing 5D chess here, India and China are currently political, economic, and military arch-enemies. Having a factory in both nations serves as a hedge against the other nation moving against you or your interests, especially China who basically are letting Giga Shanghai exist because their goal is to steal every bit of Tesla's technology and use it to dominate the electric car future.

BMW, Benz, and Audi manufacturing have existed in China for decades and you don't see their marketshare shrinking due to stolen technologies.

I'm not saying that the Chinese wouldn't steal technology. But the Chinese really hate domestic products when said product carries a status symbol. When it comes to the Chinese, branding trumps technology.

 

[EVWatcher]

BMW, Benz, and Audi manufacturing have existed in China for decades and you don't see their marketshare shrinking due to stolen technologies.

I'm not saying that the Chinese wouldn't steal technology. But the Chinese really hate domestic products when said product carries a status symbol. When it comes to the Chinese, branding trumps technology.

There's nothing to steal from them tho...