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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Interesting note on greedy market makers: I placed 2 small (10 each) orders in pre-market. They both executed after the market opened, then the SP promptly dipped $8 lower. Checking the order book pre 09:30, there were no trades which executed $$ below my trades...

There's no way pre-market orders should not have been cancelled by market open...

Seems they don't mind picking up pennies from retail investors...

Grand scheme for a HODLer, it doesn't matter much, but still annoying.
 
I'm going to enjoying watching the nasdaq spike upwards here and there and watching tsla do absolutely nothing......but then have no issue tracking the nasdaq downwards on the backend of those spikes. Already just happened.

It's so damn easy to predict

I pretty much use this stock action as a barometer of if I should buy some more today. Got in during the flash sell at 771......but the moment I see this stock action show up I know there's like a 95% chance this thing is going to get walked back down...no matter what the macro's are doing. I'll just wait for sub 770's
 
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If they learn to roll the blackouts with no risk to grid stability the price leverage goes away.

Tesla should sell a safe, easy rolling blackout battery module. It is the obvious and inexpensive way to “spot” the transition to renewables.

Agree the rolling blackout was the "plan".

4 Examples of Everyone Has A Plan Until They Get Punched in the Face

I clearly see opportunities for Tesla technology to help here but it takes policy changes to make it work well. States seem all over the place with their regs at this point.
 
A couple key points about the Texas power grid 'failure' and subsequent media fake news fallout that are well worth noting IMO. The Independent Texas Grid managed by ERCOT might appear on the surface to only have been another 'Texas Independence' move (as is often the case), but don't overlook that its longer-term implications also ensured a market for in-state fossil fuel-sourced energy long after the rest of the country might have converted to more robust distributed grid that was heavily supplied by Renewables and could potentially supply cheaper power. The end result of this protectionist move was that Texas 'protected' itself from surplus energy on the larger national national grid. The similarity of this protectionism short-sightedness to the ICE Industry desperately trying to protect itself from the inevitable paradigm shift to EV's can't be overlooked. Texas, like every ICE mfg desperately clinging to it failed methods of operations through protectionist lobbying efforts is now very visibly holding a bag filled with its own makings IMO.

Taking that a step further, what Texas lost by not being connected to the larger Grid isn't much different than what GM lost when it killed its own forward-looking EV program in the 90's. The sun never stops shining and the wind never stops blowing on most of the otherwise relatively worthless land in North and West Texas. In much of those portions of the state the land could be literally covered with solar and wind farms in locations where it would have very little effect on Carbon Sequestration because there wasn't anything growing there to begin with (unlike Florida Grid Operators cutting down lush forest growth where large scale Carbon Sequestration was occurring to install solar farms.....instead of facilitating opportunities for residential and commercial solar applications on existing buildings). Texas could have rapidly developed into the Saudi Arabia of Wind and Solar with it's excess SuperEnergy surplus for the rest of the US using its own coffers filled with fossil fuel monies to fund that transition. But instead of looking outward Texas withdrew inward like GM and VW, and this week it is also paying the price..........pretty sad, Millhouse.

Here is a short 2 minute video describing ERCOT and the independent grid:


Secondly, and perhaps more hurtful to the rest of the country is the massive amount of fake news claiming that Renewables (wind) was largely to blame for this. And subsequent efforts by Top Texans to further link that failure to other Renewables - particularly battery failures. The timing of this Machiavellian politics effort to smear wind instead of the larger natural gas failures, and to include batteries and solar in that red-herring message just before next week's vote on the stimulus package that would require a shift to these energy sources is becoming a bit too transparent now even for some of those that are trying to kill the stimulus vote. And some of these efforts are also getting fact checked pretty hard as the clock is running out:

US conservatives falsely blame renewables for Texas storm outages

"While some wind turbines did freeze, failures in natural gas, coal and nuclear energy systems were responsible for nearly twice as many outages as renewables, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (Ercot), which operates the state’s power grid, said in a press conference on Tuesday.
Frozen instruments at gas, coal and even nuclear power stations were among the main problems, Ercot director Dan Woodfin said, according to Bloomberg.
Despite evidence to the contrary, a variety of misleading claims spread on social media about renewable energy, with wind turbines and the Green New Deal on the receiving end of much of the attention.
A viral photo of a helicopter de-icing a wind turbine was shared with claims it showed a “chemical” solution being applied to one of the massive wind generators in Texas. But the photo was taken in Sweden years ago, not in the US."

And of course this choice note:

upload_2021-2-17_8-6-21.png




Side note - After living on and off the grid across Alaska for a couple decades - sometimes in places without road access, and some of those places containing an endless supply of lake-fed hydroelectric power that I operated and maintained, it pains me to watch immense opportunities squandered by less than average people acting in the interest of the corporations that helped elect them. Alaska is a Texas show on steroids - a state with all the opportunities Norway had that is now in a massive self-inflicted budget crisis of Biblical proportions for acting in a manner similar to Texas instead. There is an old saying in Alaska - that it is the last place that an average person can excel in politics and business. This week Texas proved they still have a strong claim on that saying as well IMO.
 
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The 50-day moving average continues to climb for about the next 25 sessions, then is roughly flat for 20 sessions, then down for 5.

sc.TSLA.50-DayChart.2021-02-17.10-52.png


The obvious play for shortzes is to make a max effort this week to push the Lower-BB below the MA(50), where it then acts as a cap on the SP rather than support (like today's bottom at 09:31 EST).

Then, they work to cap the SP so it rides the lower-BB down. Seen this game before many times. It's how shortzes roll (and they're as predictable as clockwork the calendar).

Difference now? Tesla has $20B in the bank, makes $2B FCF per quarter, has no net debt, and there's a FREAKIN' MILLION new Tesla cars headed out showroom doors this year.

BRING IT, SHORTZES! You are going to LOSE a tooth on TSLA! :D
 
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There is not too much surprise why TSLA and others fall the last few days.
First, the weather.
Second, political durability of D. Trump.
Third, the Bitcoin kerfuffle.
Fourth, multiple geopolitical uncertainties related to Covid-19 vaccines and variants.
There is more, but the long buildup of TSLA had been going on longer than usual, so a correction is unsurprising.

This will pass as soon as:
Brandenburg and Austin near visible completion,
Shanghai success becomes more positive,
MIC exports become more regularly visible to the broader world
and the new Model S and X begin serious deliveries in combination with
Model Y MIC higher volumes.

It might o so sooner if there are unexpected positive reports that are easy for ignorant people to accept. The ignorant part is important because if it takes work to figure it out there will not be a major movement in TSLA price.

Finally, keep in mind who makes money from volatility. Never forget that, it will keep TSLA volatile until a better prospect appears.
 
A couple key points ... There is an old saying in Alaska - that it is the last place that an average person can excel in politics and business. This week Texas proved they still have a strong claim on that saying as well IMO.
there is a single characteristic that proves your point in few words:
Under ERCOT batteries are classed as power generators, not storage.
In case anybody misses the point, that ensures that any renewable is less effective because it depends on battery storage for stability.
 
TSLA may be down but Telsa earned another 75 million dollars overnight as BTC is up 5% to a record high.
I'm glad that Elon invested in BTC. I started researching BTC seriously when Elon started tweeting about it. When Elon bought I was ready and made the call to buy. Strangely though, I think the run in Bitcoin will hurt TSLA stock. It's the new shiny thing that gets the attention and all the corporate money moving into BTC will cause a huge price jump. Some of that money will be funded by sellers of TSLA shares too.
 
EDIT - I do agree that TX will continue to lead the nation in the transition to renewables, but it won't have much to do with this cold snap. It will continue to be the pricing of renewable power, nothing more, nothing less.
This will certainly happen. But I'm pretty sure this cold snap will increase Solar and Powerwall sales for the informed few.
 
This will pass as soon as:
Brandenburg and Austin near visible completion,
Shanghai success becomes more positive,
MIC exports become more regularly visible to the broader world
and the new Model S and X begin serious deliveries in combination with
Model Y MIC higher volumes.

The first one will happen close to end of the year.
The second one will happen close to end of the year.
The third one will happen close to end of the year.
The fourth one will happen close to end of the year.
And the last one will happen close to end of the year.

Why so positive?
 
Texas could have rapidly developed into the Saudi Arabia of Wind and Solar with it's excess SuperEnergy surplus......

Just want to point out that Boris Johnson has already claimed the 'Saudi Arabia of wind power' title for the UK. However I don't think even Boris would consider that the UK could become the Saudi Arabia of solar power so that is certainly up for grabs by Texas. :)