Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

There is not too much surprise why TSLA and others fall the last few days.
First, the weather.
Second, political durability of D. Trump.
Third, the Bitcoin kerfuffle.
Fourth, multiple geopolitical uncertainties related to Covid-19 vaccines and variants.
There is more, but the long buildup of TSLA had been going on longer than usual, so a correction is unsurprising.

This will pass as soon as:
Brandenburg and Austin near visible completion,
Shanghai success becomes more positive,
MIC exports become more regularly visible to the broader world
and the new Model S and X begin serious deliveries in combination with
Model Y MIC higher volumes.

It might o so sooner if there are unexpected positive reports that are easy for ignorant people to accept. The ignorant part is important because if it takes work to figure it out there will not be a major movement in TSLA price.

Finally, keep in mind who makes money from volatility. Never forget that, it will keep TSLA volatile until a better prospect appears.

 

[jbcarioca]

A couple key points ... There is an old saying in Alaska - that it is the last place that an average person can excel in politics and business. This week Texas proved they still have a strong claim on that saying as well IMO.

there is a single characteristic that proves your point in few words:
Under ERCOT batteries are classed as power generators, not storage.
In case anybody misses the point, that ensures that any renewable is less effective because it depends on battery storage for stability.

 

[captkerosene]

TSLA may be down but Telsa earned another 75 million dollars overnight as BTC is up 5% to a record high.

I'm glad that Elon invested in BTC. I started researching BTC seriously when Elon started tweeting about it. When Elon bought I was ready and made the call to buy. Strangely though, I think the run in Bitcoin will hurt TSLA stock. It's the new shiny thing that gets the attention and all the corporate money moving into BTC will cause a huge price jump. Some of that money will be funded by sellers of TSLA shares too.

 

[MABMAB]

Chart Monkey Alert!

 

[jerry33]

EDIT - I do agree that TX will continue to lead the nation in the transition to renewables, but it won't have much to do with this cold snap. It will continue to be the pricing of renewable power, nothing more, nothing less.

This will certainly happen. But I'm pretty sure this cold snap will increase Solar and Powerwall sales for the informed few.

 

[WarpedOne]

This will pass as soon as:
Brandenburg and Austin near visible completion,
Shanghai success becomes more positive,
MIC exports become more regularly visible to the broader world
and the new Model S and X begin serious deliveries in combination with
Model Y MIC higher volumes.

The first one will happen close to end of the year.
The second one will happen close to end of the year.
The third one will happen close to end of the year.
The fourth one will happen close to end of the year.
And the last one will happen close to end of the year.

Why so positive?

 

[asburgers]

Texas seems to be warming up again in a few days. Crisis averted!

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Texas could have rapidly developed into the Saudi Arabia of Wind and Solar with it's excess SuperEnergy surplus......

Just want to point out that Boris Johnson has already claimed the 'Saudi Arabia of wind power' title for the UK. However I don't think even Boris would consider that the UK could become the Saudi Arabia of solar power so that is certainly up for grabs by Texas.

 

[bkp_duke]

This will certainly happen. But I'm pretty sure this cold snap will increase Solar and Powerwall sales for the informed few.

Only if Tesla has supply. I have neighbors here that have been trying to buy PW2s for 3 months, as of this week they are still being quoted a 6 month lead time on them.

 

[BlackS]

The first one will happen close to end of the year.
The second one will happen close to end of the year.
The third one will happen close to end of the year.
The fourth one will happen close to end of the year.
And the last one will happen close to end of the year.

Why so positive?

So....you're saying $TSLA trades within a small range till EOY?

 

[WarpedOne]

So....you're saying $TSLA trades within a small range till EOY?

I'm not saying anything except I must sell some before Monday, need cash.
I guess the pop up will come Tuesday ...

 

[petit_bateau]

Just want to point out that Boris Johnson has already claimed the 'Saudi Arabia of wind power' title for the UK. However I don't think even Boris would consider that the UK could become the Saudi Arabia of solar power so that is certainly up for grabs by Texas.

Unfortunately like most things out of Johnson's mouth it does not correspond with truth
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/oakveroxgpr/GLOBAL WIND POWER.pdf

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The first one will happen close to end of the year.
The second one will happen close to end of the year.
The third one will happen close to end of the year.
The fourth one will happen close to end of the year.
And the last one will happen close to end of the year.

Why so positive?

Lol your timelines are way....way different than mine. S/X will only take a 1 quarter to ramp back up to full production. Berlin will be outputting Model Y's by Q3, Shanghai success and exports from Shanghai are already visible(not sure why you're saying close to end of year for that one especially).

Unless this is a satire post? I'm terrible at picking on up on satire on internet forums

 

[Artful Dodger]

FYI: The ElonReplyBot account has been taken down off Twitter.com

https://twitter.com/ElonReplyBot​

 

[Subhuman]

This is just flat out WRONG.

Statistically speaking, the TX grid is just as reliable as any other grid in the USA:
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/PA/Performance Analysis DL/NERC_SOR_2020.pdf

I lived in TX for more than a decade, the fact is that this place is NOT prepared for temperatures below 20F, period. They just don't see them often, and if they do they are NOT sustained like they have been during this cold period, so the power generation facilities (FF, nuclear, and renewables) are not weatherized like they are further north.

I talked with a friend that lived in Dallas for 50 years, and he says he has only once seen it this cold for this long, and that was ~25 years ago. Grids are simply not built for these edge cases, period.


All grids have edge cases where they have problems: i.e. the Western grid was woefully unprepared this past summer for the drop in solar production due to skies filled with smoke for weeks on end.


EDIT - I do agree that TX will continue to lead the nation in the transition to renewables, but it won't have much to do with this cold snap. It will continue to be the pricing of renewable power, nothing more, nothing less.

if they did not decouple from the national grid there would not have been an issue. Proof of this is that parts of Texas not on the ERCOT grid are doing just fine. Power could have been feed from other parts of the country as plants within the grid began to shut down.

This is a poster child of how deregulation can go wrong.

 

[bkp_duke]

if they did not decouple from the national grid there would not have been an issue. Proof of this is that parts of Texas not on the ERCOT grid are doing just fine. Power could have been feed from other parts of the country as plants within the grid began to shut down.

This is a poster child of how deregulation can go wrong.

Same argument can be made for California and it's rolling blackouts this summer.

Oh . . . wait, they ARE still part of the western grid and that STILL didn't help (there is NO national grid, despite what some here wish to believe - there are multiple regionalized grids - see my post above with the NREC link).

 

[sroh]

8 more at $772 this morning. Tiny percentage add to my position, but if the market is going to give it to me, I'll take it!

 

[Nolimits]

Fine. 10 more!! This market is bizarre. Any specific reason for the fall?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The first one will happen close to end of the year.
The second one will happen close to end of the year.
The third one will happen close to end of the year.
The fourth one will happen close to end of the year.
And the last one will happen close to end of the year.

Why so positive?

Are you guys forgetting FSD - close to end of the year.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fine. 10 more!! This market is bizarre. Any specific reason for the fall?

Artful Dodger's posts pretty clearly explain what is going