Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

Tesla's Cheap $25,000 Car Could Cost Just $19,000

Cool picture at the start of the video.

If the Model 2 looks anything like that, it'll be another out of the park hit from Tesla.

If you are referring to this picture, then this one appears to be a Model Y

 

[UnknownSoldier]

This brings me joy. Oh the speculative holes we jump in sometimes. lol

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1362600676174557186?s=21

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If Elon really wanted to get under J-Pow's skin, he could have mentioned that all the Fed Brrrr the last year has dramatically devalued the US$ vs. BTC, to say nothing of how it's doing versus other fiat currencies these days.

 

[dkemme]

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As promised.

Speeds are impressive for satellite. Not so impressive compared with what’s available in my area. However, I’m a bit exhausted with frequent Comcast maintenance outages and I like to support future technologies.

AT$T has thrice promised that fiber was available for my house and after drilling multiple holes, running miles of wire, and making a mess of my wiring I’m done trying with them.

So, that leaves me only one option. Joining Musk and Co. on the right side of change!

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Agree and BTW, that roof screams for Solar roof!

 

[FireMedic]

Agree and BTW, that roof screams for Solar roof!

yep, can’t wait. Got another five years or so left on this roof and the solar panels are 12 years old so they’ll be due for replacement as well.

I’ve been asking around if anyone knows whether or not they make panels for this roof configuration and nobody seems to know. Seems like it would present some design challenges with the current SGR production. Fingers crossed that in five years they’ll have solved that problem.

 

[capster]

yep, can’t wait. Got another five years or so left on this roof and the solar panels are 12 years old so they’ll be due for replacement as well.

I’ve been asking around if anyone knows whether or not they make panels for this roof configuration and nobody seems to know. Seems like it would present some design challenges with the current SGR production. Fingers crossed that in five years they’ll have solved that problem.

Push the curve. Don’t just ride it.

I’ve more than 10 years left on the roof of the place that I just bought. I ordered the solar roof & powerwalls. Unfortunately, they are not yet available on my island planet.

I may likely rebound away from my island before they are available (not cut out for retirement yet I guess).

Though I will def buy the solar roof if I’m still here (which will probably be for the duration of the pandemic).

Looks like I’m on for StarLink before the end of the year though.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Rob Maurer made an interesting point in today’s video. By lowering price on SR and increasing for Performance, Tesla can sell more cars for a given supply of batteries if more people choose the SR instead of LR or Perf. The end result is slightly lower margins but more revenue and profit. Additionally, every car on the road will become a source of recurring revenue from premium connectivity and upcoming FSD subscription.

 

[S3XY]

I’m very interested to see the final cybertruck design, and if Franz pulled off the shrinking it slightly

I don't expect it to look much, if any, different. Any changes will be internal and will be to increase production speeds and add some functionality. Didn't Elon back off the claim that the overall size needed to be reduced?

 

[Buckminster]

I don't expect it to look much, if any, different. Any changes will be internal and will be to increase production speeds and add some functionality. Didn't Elon back off the claim that the overall size needed to be reduced?

It is smaller:
Elon Musk Talks Tesla Cybertruck Size, Updated Design With Joe Rogan

 

[Ocelot]

I don't expect it to look much, if any, different. Any changes will be internal and will be to increase production speeds and add some functionality. Didn't Elon back off the claim that the overall size needed to be reduced?

Yes he did. However he recently said it needs to shrink to fit in the boring tunnels. He did it with Leno, but was tight.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Honestly, we’ve heard that line (insert region of choice) before.

*yawn*

And here’s just one itty bitty example in an ocean of unlimited choices; VW is still selling a lot of cars (in Europe - since that’s the place we’re talking about) even after bald face lying to everyone there about how not lethal their cars were.

So, yeah. Don’t be so dramatic. It’ll get addressed just like everything else does and as usual people’s memories will be short.

OK, I feel like if we continue this here much longer the mods will kick us out. But seriously, I can't believe I have to explain this to some of the smartest people "I know". Yes, dieselgate was bad, but honestly I am yet to meet an "average European" person who would tell me they will not buy a VW because of that. (And no, TMC crew is not average by any means). VW is widely regarded as making superb quality cars and they have 80 years of that reputation behind them. They have remained the highest selling car brand over here, period.

On the flip side, American cars in general are regarded as having extremely low quality. Seriously, tell your European friend you have an American car and they will laugh behind your back. Now Tesla, of course, in my experience talking to people, is regarded as the most cutting edge EV and tech company out there. But, it has done nothing but reinforce the American car stereotype in terms of quality and when I tell people my next car will be a Model 3, even colleagues who know nothing about cars and don't care, will ask about roofs flying off, panel gaps and recalls (just from headlines they have glanced over).

So Tesla is successful over here despite being American and despite the quality issues you don't even find on a Dacia, because of its cutting edge tech. Having a badly performing battery and especially having a mini-scandal in Germany where people still need to be won over for EVs is really bad (just read German media comment section on EV articles in general... no offense to our fellow Germans here, but it is like going back 10 years).

Anyway, once again, long and strong for 8 years, not saying this is destroying the company or they will never sell a car in Europe again, I am not being overly dramatic about it. But please stop playing down actual issues. Now, I really do think that as the snobs we are about cars made in Europe and especially made in Germany over here in the old continent, Berlin was the perfect decision for exactly these reasons. The fact that cars will be produced there will increase people's quality perception 100x and you will hear every single reviewer open their video or article talking about how perfect those panel gaps are - as if that was the most important thing for a car. But they have to nip this LFP issue in the bud before it damages the "cutting edge tech" reputation.

OK I promise, I'll stop now. If you still want to tell me I am an idiot for thinking this, DM me.

 

[MC3OZ]

Rob Maurer made an interesting point in today’s video. By lowering price on SR and increasing for Performance, Tesla can sell more cars for a given supply of batteries if more people choose the SR instead of LR or Perf. The end result is slightly lower margins but more revenue and profit. Additionally, every car on the road will become a source of recurring revenue from premium connectivity and upcoming FSD subscription.

My thoughts were similar, and this is a more likely explanation than LFP.

The factory also has a run-rate (which might have increased), and delivery logistics.
Perhaps it is less optimal for the factory to make Performance Models that need to be shipped long distances, when Tesla can more easily tap SR orders that can be delivered closer to the factory. It is likely that recent cold snap in the US has complicated some delivery logistics.

So for any given supply of batteries, there are complex calculations, in terms of optimizing revenue and deliveries. Tesla adjusts prices to achieve the best possible mix at any point in time.

 

[Baumisch]

Rob Maurer made an interesting point in today’s video. By lowering price on SR and increasing for Performance, Tesla can sell more cars for a given supply of batteries if more people choose the SR instead of LR or Perf. The end result is slightly lower margins but more revenue and profit. Additionally, every car on the road will become a source of recurring revenue from premium connectivity and upcoming FSD subscription.

And please some soon coming revenue stream from app-store / game-store - can't wait for them to have a real app platform within the car - I'll might upgrade my 2013 P85+ MCU1 as well for that

 

[insaneoctane]

Great post - fully agree. Hidden just below the ‘feel good’ surface appears to be another layer of protectionism for the not-so-big 3 auto makers that made a conscious decision to not transition when it mattered most - with EVs and with EV charging infrastructure. A part of us should be upset that we are once again bailing out Detroit and that our kids and grandkids will be paying for their failed EV transition and their EV charging infrastructure after Elon showed the world over the last decade that this wasn’t necessary. And it literally feels as if language in this bill, and all the public discussions surrounding it might also be designed to hurt Tesla’s 2021 delivery numbers by creating a situation where buyers may delay their Q1 purchases, followed by an unnecessary cap per manufacturer which only Tesla could be hurt by in 2021 as well. And ‘conveniently’ if they delay signing the bill they may prolong Q1 and maybe Q2 angst for Tesla shoppers, and if they quickly pass the bill they accelerate Tesla sales hitting the vehicles cap. Ugggh.

I do wonder if it was Tesla’s greater understanding of how this language may effect them that was the catalyst for lowering prices.......and if so, a brilliantly played move IMO. Fight back by pounding through the sales cap ASAP and then putting significant pressure on lawmakers to prioritize fighting Climate Change over fighting a paradigm shift away from Detroit and Wall Street, and then use the power of Social Media and millions of loyal Tesla fans to help raise awareness to the need to extend/eliminate the vehicles cap and help turn up that heat after Tesla blows through that cap in mind blowing fashion.

From the 50,000 foot level this isn’t the time to get lost in cognitive dissonance down in the weeds over what side of the aisle is doing a better job trying to move the needle. This is the time to make sure both sides of the aisle are doing everything they can to move the needle forward as fast as they can to save our Planet.

Regardless of how this plays out, everyone here already knows that Tesla won’t have more than a few vehicles left in inventory anywhere on the planet at the end of 2021, regardless of what kind of screwing they may get from DC in the final language of this bill. And what those people looking to shackle Tesla until others can catch up haven’t yet come to grips with is that Tesla will also be down to its last few Powerwalls, and Powerpacks, and Megapacks, and solar panels, and solar roofs, and everything else in the Tesla Store at the end of 2021 as well. And that this will be the case for every product that Tesla makes at the end of every year for the rest of this decade. And every person buying every one of those Tesla products is equally as important as anyone that decides to buy a Chevy Bolt or a Mustang E instead. Thus the language in that bill needs to put consumers before manufacturers if anyone wants to pretend this is a free market economy.

While I respect your optimism, my experience is that politicians don’t put consumers before lobbyists. The final bill will show if this time is different.

 

[Mike Smith]

Sandy on witnessing Elon Musk at a design review after his interview (42:22):

"After I got done I shook his hand and he said we're going to have a design review, do you want to stick around? We spent two hours of watching a design review - I was blown away. I've seen dozens of CEOs, I've never seen a CEO ever, or president, that knew more about the product, that knew the details of a product, that could bring an idea and discuss it not just in a grandiose hand waving kind of way, but hey, let's use this formula and rattle off a formula, or rattle off a material, or rattle off a process that is kind of obscure unless you're like a detail engineer. I was blown away by that, and that kind of stuff like I say you don't see, you don't see executives know much about."

 

[UkNorthampton]

Sandy on witnessing Elon Musk at a design review after his interview (42:22):

"After I got done I shook his hand and he said we're going to have a design review, do you want to stick around? We spent two hours of watching a design review - I was blown away. I've seen dozens of CEOs, I've never seen a CEO ever, or president, that knew more about the product, that knew the details of a product, that could bring an idea and discuss it not just in a grandiose hand waving kind of way, but hey, let's use this formula and rattle off a formula, or rattle off a material, or rattle off a process that is kind of obscure unless you're like a detail engineer. I was blown away by that, and that kind of stuff like I say you don't see, you don't see executives know much about."

Sandy doesn't like or understand his wife's term of 'male bonding' with Cory. I think Sandy is close to a 'bromance' with Elon.

Fantastic video & further evidence that Tesla is unlike any other non-Musk company in the energy, AI, robotics, car industries. Very confidence inspiring.

Also worth reiterating how much easier road trips are in Teslas - much more relaxing (my own experience as well).

 

[Lycanthrope]

$TSLA getting some pre-market love, now above $800, any news that might account for that, or just macro?

 

[Pezpunk]

...?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

For the 4th straight year!

Do we not believe Elon when he says by the end of the year? Hasn't he adjusted his timeline estimations to be more conservative and over-deliver on dates?

 

[Christine600]

$TSLA getting some pre-market love, now above $800, any news that might account for that, or just macro?

Janet Jellen spoke about more financial stimuli yesterday. Only thing I can think of.

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK - lots of used ICE vehicles stored & not on the market. Further reasons to choose EVs, especially Tesla.

Suspect no Teslas or indeed any EV. There will be other UK locations.

Many are ex-lease/hire car - so probably quite new, many will be low mileage but kept stationary for a long time (not good for many ICE cars).

If they come on the market, used ICE prices will fall. Residuals lower (depreciation higher), ICE lease costs might go up to cover.

Once this is sorted out, I expect a shock to ICE OEMs, lease companies, people who bought or had Personal Contract Plan (PCP*) for ICE.

[* Not sure if PCP is widely known outside UK - you have an option to buy at end of lease period, I believe very common method of getting new (and used) cars.]

One of the larger employers in the area is VW Financial Services - not sure how many in Milton Keynes / UK - but Volkswagen Financial Services UK says 17,000 employees globally.


Is this happening in other countries? This could be a major shift in ICE vs EV/Tesla.

Covid-19: Thousands of unwanted vehicles stored at Rockingham

Some more sites spotted:-
https://twitter.com/Yaghus2/status/1362713474028220416 Wyton and Alconbury - 6000 cars

Note the speculation on Tesla replacing Merc/BMW due to UK company car changes (Benefit In Kind - BIK) - also applies to lots of EU where company cars are a big part of the new market.