Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm curious, what is so laughable about Gary's estimates of 1.48 million deliveries in 2022? Tesla's own guidance calls for 50% increase YoY, that would put 2021 at ~ 750K and 2022 at ~1.13 million. Gary seems to be bullish on Tesla and is expecting them to overperform their guidance.

Are you saying its laughable because Gary is too bullish? Or are you saying you think he is laughably low?

This actually is exactly what I was talking about in saying Gary doesn't understand the company and no Tesla's guidance wasn't for 50% growth this year and next. They clearly stated they materially expect to exceed 50% this year and next year. If you understand the the production expansion the company is doing right now, you understand how Tesla will have 2 million production capacity in 2022, maybe even higher. You also know that they will have their 4680 cells in production at multiple locations (Kato, Giga 1, Giga Austin). So they will have the battery capacity actually fullfill that 2 million production capacity

Knowing all of the intricate parts of the company makes it abundantly clear that an estimate of 1.48 million vehicles for 2022 is way too low. People informed on the company rightfully expect 2022 growth to actually be higher than 2021 growth.....and most of us already think 75%+ growth in 2021 is a done deal.

Not saying Gary is a "bear". I think his bearish comments over the past week or so have more to do with him trying to create a self prophecy that he was right about his call at the "top". But he's still uninformed

 

[jerry33]

I'm curious, what is so laughable about Gary's estimates of 1.48 million deliveries in 2022? Tesla's own guidance calls for 50% increase YoY, that would put 2021 at ~ 750K and 2022 at ~1.13 million. Gary seems to be bullish on Tesla and is expecting them to overperform their guidance.

Are you saying its laughable because Gary is too bullish? Or are you saying you think he is laughably low?

The issue with overly bullish estimates is that it gives more ammunition to the shorts to call a miss. Gary has other issues as well.

 

[Big Time]

Come on TSLA daddy needs a new pair of shoes....and some real estate

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This actually is exactly what I was talking about in saying Gary doesn't understand the company and no Tesla's guidance wasn't for 50% growth this year and next. They clearly stated they materially expect to exceed 50% this year and next year. If you understand the the production expansion the company is doing right now, you understand how Tesla will have 2 million production capacity in 2022, maybe even higher. You also know that they will have their 4680 cells in production at multiple locations (Kato, Giga 1, Giga Austin). So they will have the battery capacity actually fullfill that 2 million production capacity

Knowing all of the intricate parts of the company makes it abundantly clear that an estimate of 1.48 million vehicles for 2022 is way too low. People informed on the company rightfully expect 2022 growth to actually be higher than 2021 growth.....and most of us already think 75%+ growth in 2021 is a done deal

I'm confused. We're looking for 900k in 2021 on a very rosy side. 50% on top of that in 2022 is 135k. Have you taken your temperature today? You may be coming down with a case of TMC-itis!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm confused. We're looking for 900k in 2021 on a very rosy side. 50% on top of that in 2022 is 135k. Have you taken your temperature today? You may be coming down with a case of TMC-itis!

Wait do some people here actually think 2022's growth will be less than 2021???

I'm in the camp that thinks 2022 growth rate will be higher than 2021 and I feel there's multiple things to back that up.

And I think 900k for 2021 is realistic. 1 million is rosy

 

[bkp_duke]

Wait do some people here actually think 2022's growth will be less than 2021???

I'm in the camp that thinks 2022 growth rate will be higher than 2021 and I feel there's multiple things to back that up.

And I think 900k for 2021 is realistic. 1 million is rosy

2022 will have Austin and Berlin at or near 100% ramp. It's going to be the mother of all spankings for ICE manufacturers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also when I talk growth rates, I'm talking true growth rate - Revenue. 2022 will be somewhat skewed because you have Semi and top line Cybertruck skewing ASP higher as well as Tesla Energy finally getting enough battery supply to start a serious growth curve.

The emphasis on delivery numbers being the way to tell revenue growth will deteriorate as Tesla Energy and their other project finally scale................and we can finally not have to care so much about the first 4 days of every quarter

 

[Khamul]

Here's a video from Sandy Munro, providing some background on his interview with Elon. It's mostly focused on SpaceX, but there's some nice bits on why Elon completely beats every other CEO. That bit is from 6:20 onward.

 

[Knightshade]

As to the principle of increasing sales or decreasing ASP.....I think the impact of a revised and greatly "improved" tax credit program will be so powerful we won't be able to guess which way any of these measurables will move.

Yes, Tesla has seemingly tried to get out in front of it with mild low-end price cutting, but what if the tax credit pulls forward consumer sentiment by 6 months to a year? That kind of change to an already exponentially growing market is immeasurable. A difference of three months might be night and day in terms of ASP or sales growth..

Do you believe Tesla is supply, not demand, limited?

If so- how would the credit help increase sales?

They already have more buyers than cars.


If you believe the supply limited story then the only company the proposed credit extension helps as far as vehicle sales is GM.

They can go from offering $8500 cash back on Bolts to only $1500 back- pocketing the $7000 difference.



Now- one place the credit could help Tesla is margins and add ons.

If you're getting $7000 back from the IRS you might be more inclined to spring for 10k FSD than you otherwise would have been.

Or you might go for the Performance instead of the LR since the IRS is basically paying for the upgrade.

But it can't help them with selling more cars unless you don't believe the supply-limited story.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Also when I talk growth rates, I'm talking true growth rate - Revenue. 2022 will be somewhat skewed because you have Semi and top line Cybertruck skewing ASP higher as well as Tesla Energy finally getting enough battery supply to start a serious growth curve.

The emphasis on delivery numbers being the way to tell revenue growth will deteriorate as Tesla Energy and their other project finally scale................and we can finally not have to care so much about the first 4 days of every quarter

Agree that there will be less emphasis on delivery numbers. However ASP could be higher or lower depending on whether they continue to reduce SR model 3 and Model Y prices and whether they introduce a Model 2; as well as Semi and Cybertruck.

What is virtually certain is that cash flow grow faster than revenue and earnings faster than cash flow. This will be especially pronounced if FSD reaches level 5 and Tesla Network is launched.

 

[insaneoctane]

Please don’t get too depressed. Remember, this is all about the money:
How Much the Oil Industry Paid Texas Republicans Lying About Wind Energy

While I think the “renewable bad in cold” narrative was wrong and misleading during this Texas cold storm, I also think trying to tie politicians to their donors is a fool’s errand. ALL politicians have many easy to point your finger at donors who give ridiculous sums of money to the campaigns and uncapped PACs. Let’s hold politicians accountable for what they say, but I can find campaign contributions from the most loathsome groups to anyone’s favorite hero.

 

[Artful Dodger]

People informed on the company rightfully expect 2022 growth to actually be higher than 2021 growth.....and most of us already think 75%+ growth in 2021 is a done deal.

1.48M deliveries in 2022 is a 72% CAGR versus 2020 deliveries of 500K. That's close enough vs your 75%+ (although the 1.48M estimate is an oddball number without explaining how he arrived at it).

Further, 2M 'capacity' in 2020 is not 2M deliveries in an environment of constantly increasing production. You'd need to estimate average capacity in 2022, then factor in a delivery rate.

Overall, I see nothing of particular note in Gary's revised estimate. I tuned him out months ago.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agree that there will be less emphasis on delivery numbers. However ASP could be higher or lower depending on whether they continue to reduce SR model 3 and Model Y prices and whether they introduce a Model 2; as well as Semi and Cybertruck.

What is virtually certain is that cash flow grow faster than revenue and earnings faster than cash flow. This will be especially pronounced if FSD reaches level 5 and Tesla Network is launched.

I actually think the the combination of Semi, Cybertruck, and FSD revenue recognition( I think by 2022 FSD will be on wide release with all features, not Robotaxi though) will more than offset higher volumes in Model 3/Y. Also Model Y will become the dominate vehicle and it has a higher ASP than the 3. I don't see the Model 2 coming out until 2023....at which point it will affect ASP.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

1.48M production in 2022 is a 72% CAGR versus 2020 deliveries. That's close enough vs your 75%+ (although the 1.48M estimate is an oddball number without explaining how he arrived at it).

Further, 2M 'capacity' in 2020 is not 2M deliveries in an environment of constantly increasing production. You'd need to estimate average capacity in 2022, then factor in a delivery rate.

Overall, I see nothing of particular note in Gary's revised estimate. I tuned him out months ago.

I don't think that will actually be the case for 2022. Giga Berlin will get the benefit of ramp up time in Q3 and Q4 of this year. Giga Austin might get Q4 of this year to do initial ramp. I think Giga Berlin especially will be at a high production rate to start out 2022. I think Tesla could end 2021 at a production rate capacity of 1.25-1.4 million over their current capacity of 1.05 million

I guess I should say....I think production capacity rate by end of year 2022 will be around 2.25-2.4 million with actual production for the year being around 1.7-2 million.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I wonder if it would be beneficial for Tesla to sell, say, 1/3 of their BTC and use the proceeds for a stock buyback. This would be good for the bottom line in Q1 and send a signal that TSLA is a better investment than BTC, along with slightly reducing the float. I'm not an accountant, so I have no idea if this would be good or not, but it seems good to me.

 

[kanweg]

As soon as Berlin is finished another factory build should be started. Preferably paid for with the bitcoins. No need to have the factory designers twiddling their thumbs. No need for a stock dilution..

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think that will actually be the case for 2022. Giga Berlin will get the benefit of ramp up time in Q3 and Q4 of this year. Giga Austin might get Q4 of this year to do initial ramp.

Giga Berlin hasn't started contruction of a battery cell plant yet. Until they have a local source of 4680 cells, they will be dependant on supplies from Kato Rd (notionally capped at ~10GWh/yr). That's roughly 32K Models Y per quarter if each has a 78KWh pack. I think that's the plan for the ramp too, as Elon has cautioned several times due to so many new technologies.

I guess I should say....I think production capacity rate by end of year 2022 will be around 2.25-2.4 million with actual production for the year being around 1.7-2 million.

Yeah, could happed if everything goes well, but my point is there's little value in making a high-end prediction now. Wall St. will NOT give the benefit of the doubt for the best-case scenario (they're actually predicting that 2021Q1 will be 20K below 2020Q4).

IMO, better to have a surprise to the upside. Practise your feigned 'shocked' face...

Cheers!

 

[Big Time]

2022 will have Austin and Berlin at or near 100% ramp. It's going to be the mother of all spankings for ICE manufacturers.

The machine that builds the spanking machine.....interesting

 

[SOULPEDL]

Things seem to be warming up around the SP. Just sayin'

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Giga Berlin hasn't started contruction of a battery cell plant yet. Until they have a local source of 4680 cells, they will be dependant on supplies from Kato Rd (notionally capped at ~10GWh/yr). That's roughly 32K Models Y per quarter if each has a 78KWh pack. I think that's the plan for the ramp too, as Elon has cautioned several times due to so many new technologies.



Yeah, could happed if everything goes well, but my point is there's little value in making a high-end prediction now. Wall St. will NOT give the benefit of the doubt for the best-case scenario (they're actually predicting that 2021Q1 will be 20K below 2020Q4).

IMO, better to have a surprise to the upside. Practise your feigned 'shocked' face...

Cheers!

Agree with the sentiment of being bullish and expectations.

One thing to point out on 4680 cells. There's been multiple reports Giga 1 is preparing to start production of 4680 cells there in the coming quarters. By years end, Kato Rd won't be the only place making 4680 cells so I personally believe Tesla will be cranking out substantially more than 10 GWh/yr of 4680 cells