Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lycanthrope]

I wonder if it would be beneficial for Tesla to sell, say, 1/3 of their BTC and use the proceeds for a stock buyback. This would be good for the bottom line in Q1 and send a signal that TSLA is a better investment than BTC, along with slightly reducing the float. I'm not an accountant, so I have no idea if this would be good or not, but it seems good to me.

Nah, why would a growth company buy back stock? And who actually cares if $TSLA is perceived as a "better investment", it's all about The Mission, not profits or the share price.

 

[bkp_duke]

Impressive walkdown going on. I was expecting my $780 Covered Calls to be called away at close today . . . now I'm not so sure.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Giga Berlin hasn't started contruction of a battery cell plant yet. Until they have a local source of 4680 cells, they will be dependant on supplies from Kato Rd (notionally capped at ~10GWh/yr). That's roughly 32K Models Y per quarter if each has a 78KWh pack. I think that's the plan for the ramp too, as Elon has cautioned several times due to so many new technologies.

Do we know who is manufacturing the 4680 production lines? Is it Grohmann? Drew made the following comment in the Q4 ER call:
Meanwhile, we've developed enough engineering confidence with our 4680 design and the production process and equipment to kick off manufacturing equipment and facility construction to support our 100 gigawatt hour 2022 goal

If it is Grohmann perhaps they will manufacture, build and test at the Grohmann works (like they did with the initial cell packing machines they built) and then deliver to Berlin when the 4680 cell production facility has been built.

 

[Stretch2727]

Reuters:
Analysis: Carmakers wake up to new pecking order as chip crunch intensifies

Analysis: Carmakers wake up to new pecking order as chip crunch intensifies

No paywall and does a decent job covering the current landscape in chip making for the automotive sector.

This is not really new. When I was at Ford we always understood we were at the bottom of the food chain but made up for it by giving steady business and long term contracts. The auto companies use older tech and expect bottom dollar prices on chips/electronics. The chip companies like auto as the volumes are pretty steady compared to the consumer electronics business. Also, they usually are building the chips on fully depreciated equipment for auto, hence the low prices. It's a good base of business for the chip companies.

We are in uncharted waters with the shift in demand that the pandemic created. I just hope the chip companies don't view Tesla as an auto company. My guess is Tesla is using the latest tech and paying tech company pricing/margins.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes, my impression is that there is a single 4680 line being build by Panasonic at Giga Nevada in order to support early production of the Semi there. Doubtless, serious Semi volume will shift to Giga Texas over time, but right now Tesla needs the road miles for testing, and will benefit from reduced logistics costs between Sparks and Fremont.

Cheers!

That is certainly what I thought was said. On the other side we really do not know how mature the ferment line is. If all the technical problems have been resolved it seems quite likely that now lines might be rather faster than has been the Sparks one. After all Tesla seems to be slow to begin a major ramp up, but very rapidly expands once the technologies have matured.

My guess is that they've pretty well completed the technological maturation so Brandenburg and Shanghai will be producing 4680's and others partners might be also with lead time for third party production equipment and raw materials likely to be the constraining factors. As usual we have no definitive guidance.

My optimism may well reflect my anxiety to take delivery on my 4690 equipped car by early September. Both of my previous Tesla ended out being deliver the first week of September so this one should also. is that not perfectly logical?

 

[st_lopes]

but more important: are they able to fetch enough USB-cables and old laptops to complete the updates fast? I doubt it.

Haven’t you heard? There’s a chip shortage.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Nah, why would a growth company buy back stock?

Ordinarily I'd agree, but with the gains from BTC, they could sell, juice the bottom line, and then they'd have to put that cash somewhere. I suppose they could keep it in cash, but that is kind of a mixed signal with why they got into BTC in the first place. By placing it into a share buyback, it gives them a good excuse for why they sold the BTC. I'm justing brainstorming here.

 

[st_lopes]

I wonder if it would be beneficial for Tesla to sell, say, 1/3 of their BTC and use the proceeds for a stock buyback. This would be good for the bottom line in Q1 and send a signal that TSLA is a better investment than BTC, along with slightly reducing the float. I'm not an accountant, so I have no idea if this would be good or not, but it seems good to me.

You’re suggesting a company that just did two ATM capital raises, goes out and buys back its shares at valuations higher than they raised? That’s not a bullish signal. That’s a we have no idea what we’re doing with our capital signal. The BTC buy is nothing more than an inflationary hedge against a potential over printing of US money supply. To paraphrase Elon, it’s only slightly less stupid to hold BTC than it is to hold fiat, especially in an environment where your spending is quickly becoming more diversified in currencies.

 

[neverdone]

Unless I missed a revision, that is NOT how the current draft of the bill is worded. There is no retroactive language in the bill at all.

I believe only applies to vehicles that are sold after the effective date of the Green Act.

Text - H.R.848 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): GREEN Act of 2021

(c) Effective Date.—
(1) LIMITATION.—The amendment made by subsection (a) shall apply to vehicles sold after the date of the enactment of this Act.

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As promised.

Speeds are impressive for satellite. Not so impressive compared with what’s available in my area. However, I’m a bit exhausted with frequent Comcast maintenance outages and I like to support future technologies.

AT$T has thrice promised that fiber was available for my house and after drilling multiple holes, running miles of wire, and making a mess of my wiring I’m done trying with them.

So, that leaves me only one option. Joining Musk and Co. on the right side of change!

View attachment 637967

Can you report back in several weeks about the reliability? For example, how often to you lose connectivity.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Tesla Offers Customers New Option For Collision, Glass Repair Via Tesla App

Excerpt:

Tesla owners recently received a message via the Tesla app on their phone, which is used as a key and to control their vehicles, letting owners know of newly available collision and glass repair services.

Customers can have Tesla fix minor dents, scuffs, scratches and replace glass at a Tesla service center, as opposed to a third party. Tesla touts an "optimized repair flow" that "enables a fast and seamless experience."

 

[Chunky Jr.]

You’re suggesting a company that just did two ATM capital raises, goes out and buys back its shares at valuations higher than they raised? That’s not a bullish signal. That’s a we have no idea what we’re doing with our capital signal. The BTC buy is nothing more than an inflationary hedge against a potential over printing of US money supply. To paraphrase Elon, it’s only slightly less stupid to hold BTC than it is to hold fiat, especially in an environment where your spending is quickly becoming more diversified in currencies.

Thanks for the correction. Good thing I'm not in charge of Tesla's cash holding.

 

[AimStellar]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Tesla Offers Customers New Option For Collision, Glass Repair Via Tesla App

Excerpt:

Tesla owners recently received a message via the Tesla app on their phone, which is used as a key and to control their vehicles, letting owners know of newly available collision and glass repair services.

Customers can have Tesla fix minor dents, scuffs, scratches and replace glass at a Tesla service center, as opposed to a third party. Tesla touts an "optimized repair flow" that "enables a fast and seamless experience."

Hello Geico, Buffett, and Chevron...

 

[H Mak]

FOMO about to set in. Screw $760 Max Pain... it's about defending 780/790 walls. I've never seen this so concentrated around 800 (or any price).

"Ave Volume" day (from Low volume) - could mean the last chance 901 train is about to leave the station.

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I find your posts very interesting

 

[corduroy]

My order filled at $779 for a few more.

 

[Davidzhao365]

Can someone share what broker they use and what is the Tesla margin maintenance requirement?

I am on Interactive Broker and it is 70%. Means if I have $100k worth of Tsla I can borrow $30k.

Robinhood is at 50% now.

 

[MABMAB]

FOMO about to set in. Screw $760 Max Pain... it's about defending 780/790 walls. I've never seen this so concentrated around 800 (or any price).

"Ave Volume" day (from Low volume) - could mean the last chance 901 train is about to leave the station.

View attachment 638069

Plz explain, I do not understand the 901?

 

[bkp_duke]

Can someone share what broker they use and what is the Tesla margin maintenance requirement?

I am on Interactive Broker and it is 70%. Means if I have $100k worth of Tsla I can borrow $30k.

Robinhood is at 50% now.

I'm on Fidelity and in my account it currently shows 45%, but I have seen it fluctuate between 25% and 60%, depending upon volatility of the stock.

 

[MABMAB]

Wait do some people here actually think 2022's growth will be less than 2021???

I'm in the camp that thinks 2022 growth rate will be higher than 2021 and I feel there's multiple things to back that up.

And I think 900k for 2021 is realistic. 1 million is rosy

It's all about the batteries!
When they have that part down, they can dominate or enter as many segments as they want.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My order filled at $779 for a few more.

I'm getting in more before end of day myself. It will be my highest % concentration since early last year if I do. But I kicked myself for not buying in the mid 700's yesterday. I just don't know how much longer Tesla can keep a lid on any amazement or invention spewing out in all directions for much longer.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm justing brainstorming here.

Umm - I love your burritos but maybe don’t?