Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

To me this suggests a belief that Tesla's cash is not best spent furthering its own business model, but better left to someone else to look after.

I belong to an unfortunately too small group of people who actually understand the meaning of exponential growth. So I understand as well as everyone else - or possibly even better - that a company that already grows by a staggering 50% annually really cannot hope to further increase that insane growth rate by spending _more_ money on growth.

But still, Tesla has some of the brightest minds around and have found innovative solutions to all kinds of different problems. So I am somewhat disappointed that they have not chosen to spend some money on aspects of their own business that would pay back in the longer run. I mean Elon Musk goes on about how it is insanely difficult to mass produce cars cheaply and that Tesla need to play a 'game of pennies' and how Tesla need to save on all aspects of its business. Fine - and I guess they got rid of their barnacles on barnacles.

Well, if Tesla has so much cash that they can't meaningfully spend it on growth, maybe they should think about how to spend it in on their own business in a manner, where it still comes back to them at a later stage.

For example, Tesla does not allow transfer of FSD from one car to another (something that I am so far unaffected by, but which is a real problem for people who total their FSD-equipped Tesla). Well, maybe the goodwill gotten from introducing conditions under which FSD could be transferred would give them more goodwill - and maybe help some doubters that FSD is actually worth it.

I have been to an understaffed, overworked service center, and I don't think I am the only one. So increasing the staffing on understaffed service centers would increase customer satisfaction.

Or what about increasing the amenities at certain superchargers, like making sure there something as simple as sufficient waste bin capacity ? Something more expensive, but excellent for Tesla's image would be PV-roofs over more supercharger stations - even if Tesla couldn't spare battery cells for storage there, they could negotiate the right to sell power back to the grid. Actually, with e.g. 3kW PV per stall, Tesla could initially accept the lower capacity factor from having no storage at all. Anyway, it should be easy to come up with ideas for how to put a bit of that cash to work, directly furthering the company's goals.

Prove me wrong.

It appears you are conflating the conversion of cash to Bitcoin with spending money. This is not spending money, it's simply changing it from one form to another.

 

[PeterJA]

Interesting thread on currency and BTC by FC/Tesla Facts: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1363155000415969284

Some strange logic and questionable claims from our self-banished member.

He claims Elon's statement that money "allows us to avoid the inconvenience of barter" is a "misunderstanding" because "There's zero evidence of human societies having complex barter economies and transitioning to coins/money to replace barter." But such evidence is not necessary for Elon's statement to be true. Money obviously allows the development of complex economies not possible with barter.

He also suggests Bitcoin is a poor currency because of the energy required for transactions and mining (illustrated with a scary coal plant). He cites no sources for this claim, and ARC Invest disputed it last summer:

Debunking Bitcoin Myths for the Institutional Investment Community

If Bitcoin is poorly designed for transactions, then I agree with TeslaFact's suggestion for Elon/Tesla to create their own cryptocurrency. But Bitcoin could still be used as a store of value (with less energy consumption), and help societies become accustomed to using cryptocurrency.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Seems pretty clear to me; FSD by the end of March. And I'm padding that big time. Probably by the end of this month.

After reading more posts, I've decided I'm wrong on this. I thought it was a play on stick a fork in it, it's done. Meaning those yellow lines wouldn't be needed much longer. Now I'm swayed to think it is a bitcoin reference (tho I don't know jack about crypto currency).

 

[ZsoZso]

My gut tells me true Level 5 FSD won't be until sometime next year. I think they'll get incredibly close this year and they'll release a solid Level 4 FSD which works on all types of roads to the public within a few months, but solving all the edge cases to 100% safety satisfaction will take quite some time yet IMHO. 99% won't be good enough for Elon to truly claim FSD 5 is done, I think he'll want it up to 99.8% or better.

We are close though, so very, very close now. And yes, when FSD 5 does come out it will be a game changer for TSLA, no doubt.

I will be impressed if they release a solid level 4 this year, it is possible, but we have seen delays for several years so I am not betting on it. As for level 5, they are not even close to address what is needed. Remember, level 5 means driving under any weather and road conditions a human driver can. Tesla cameras as they are installed today become unusable in slushy snow conditions -- everyone who drives in winter conditions have seen the warnings pop up that certain cameras have lost visibility and you need to clean them (and autopilot is disabled under those conditions). These situations are fine for level-4, the car could pull over safely and ask the humans in the car to clean the cameras in order to continue the journey. But this does not pass the level-5 requirement.

Furthermore, level-5 also need to be able to operate under some crazy conditions, I have included a couple of examples below in the spoiler. Who is betting Tesla FSD will be able to handle these driving tasks this year ?

Spoiler

 

[StealthP3D]

A fork in the road, is also known as a split, in the road. It's so obvious.

Hmmm, the fork was right on the centerline. That would appear to imply a 2:1 split!

 

[Tim S]

It came from this article: A Fork in the Road

For anyone who didn't look closely, that article is from 2017. It's something about splitting bitcoin into 2 different bitcoins... BTC and BTU. I'm not sure what it means.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It appears you are conflating the conversion of cash to Bitcoin with spending money. This is not spending money, it's simply changing it from one form to another.

Kinda like casino chips

There's a good chance you get either more or less back a few days/weeks/months later.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Hmmm, the fork was right on the centerline. That would appear to imply a 2:1 split!

But the fork has four tines...

And that's about as far down the rabbit hole I am going. As @Unpilot said, The man likes a good meme and likely having fun also...

 

[lascavarian]

Some strange logic and questionable claims from our self-banished member.

Tally sticks are well established as a form of receipt or credit or debt over centuries. Efficient and accurate representation for transactions in goods, debt or payment. They are flammable however. Millions burned up in a fire in London I think.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Seems pretty clear to me; FSD by the end of March. And I'm padding that big time. Probably by the end of this month.

March of what year.

 

[brianhn1]

But the fork has four tines...

And that's about as far down the rabbit hole I am going. As unpilot said, The man likes a good meme and likely having fun also...

Oh K

metaphork = metaphor K

K, goes out four ways

fork, has four prongs

You're on to something...

 

[JRP3]

ARC Invest disputed it last summer:

If that's comparing all current USD transactions to all current BTC transactions it's a misleading graph. Energy used per equivalent value would need to be compared.

 

[OrthoSurg]

View attachment 638394

I wish we could move on from BTC and bickering to the really important stuff...
Like WTF does this mean?

Space X, Tesla, Neuralink and... Bitcoin of course all being reunited together under X.com

 

[Sudre]

View attachment 638394

I wish we could move on from BTC and bickering to the really important stuff...
Like WTF does this mean?

I love all the fun things this could be. I don't see that anyone mentioned a Software Fork: "In software engineering, a project fork happens when developers take a copy of source code from one software package and start independent development on it, creating a distinct and separate piece of software."

 

[EVCollies]

Elon musk will fork a coin. He could fork Doge with big holders excluded. Or fork with a different mining algorithm.

WOW, nail on head. Then next crypto will be TeslaCoin, mined by actively driving a Tesla! The value of owning a Tesla increases with every mile driven. Would be a small addition to DOJO.

A cryptocurrency with complete transparency and energy conscience is born.

 

[capster]

Oh K

metaphork = metaphor K

K, goes out four ways

fork, has four prongs

You're on to something...

Have we jumped the shark fork on this?

 

[Alphacrux]

WSJ at it again:
Tesla Quality Issues Threaten Its Dominance in China EV Market

 

[Mo City]

After reading more posts, I've decided I'm wrong on this. I thought it was a play on stick a fork in it, it's done. Meaning those yellow lines wouldn't be needed much longer. Now I'm swayed to think it is a bitcoin reference (tho I don't know jack about crypto currency).

I believe an FSD release by the end of March could still be in play.

Elon just tweeted the next FSD beta release will be "a step change better" than current. This might be a reference to a January tweet about moving all neural nets to 8 camera surround video which he said "will enable superhuman self-driving".

He also said during the Q4 earnings call a subscription to FSD would become available "in the next month or two". Some believe these events will coincide.

My wild guess is the FSD beta version AFTER the step change release will become the new FSD general release and the much awaited FSD subscription plan will be announced with it.

 

[2daMoon]

You guys don't have a clue what it might mean.

Fork it. I'm going to bed.

 

[Paul_SF]

OT: