Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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Words of HABIT
Member
Brilliant Volkswagen. Sell 50% more of your EVs direct to your Dealers than they can sell due to pushing out ICE, and have these +14,000 vehicles sit on Dealer lots so Volkswagen avoids paying the heavy carbon credit fines. This may have worked for 2020. They won't be able to hide in 2021.
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adiggs
Active Member
Depending on exactly what you're measuring the 99.8% against, my immediate reaction is that 99.8% quality on FSD or even level 4 (which I understand to be that a human is available with 5-10s warning to take over; otherwise the car is able to drive itself) is disastrously bad.
If we're talking about crashes per mile, then 99.8% is 2 crashes per 1000 miles driven. Considering my own experience using FSD these crashes will include head on collisions with oncoming traffic. I personally have been driving that 10-12k range per year, so now we're talking about 20-24 crashes per year that I think are more on the particularly violent side over the minor fender bender in the parking lot variety.
As a point of comparison, back in the good old days when banking was mostly a function of writing and depositing checks, a bank that correctly processed 99.8% of checks will put itself out of business fast. That means that 2 checks in 1000 are incorrectly processed - deposits going into the wrong accounts, payments coming out of the wrong accounts, checks that don't withdraw or deposit any money at all due to inability to be processed (so whoever got paid for something, doesn't actually get paid).
For check processing, 6 9's is probably a minimum standard of quality, and possibly a lot higher. 99.9999% means that 1 check per million is incorrectly processed. 1 DPM is pretty low - I don't know if that's low enough for check processing though.
My view on FSD is that 6 9's is a minimum (assuming we're measuring FSD related crashes per mile of driving). One crash per million miles sounds like it's better than today's drivers by a good bit. At 25k miles/year then we're talking about 1 crash per year for each 40 cars with the technology.
When people talk about the march of 9s this is what they're talking about.
At 99.9% we're talking 1 crash per 1000 miles. So those remaining corner cases that aren't handled well - they get improved on until they're handled well, and now we're at 99.99%.
That's 1 crash per 10k miles which is still too many for societal acceptance, even assuming the regulators would accept it. So as before, you find the instances that are crashes or seem to be close, and fix those. Now we're at 99.999%
Except that is 1 crash per 100k miles is probably still too many, but maybe not. It will at least partly turn on the nature of accidents. Head on collisions on state highways will ensure that this isn't nearly good enough. So again - find the corner cases the software isn't handling well and keep fixing these increasingly rare and hard to find much less repeat problems, and now we're at 99.9999%.
And so it goes.
Which is why I think the Euro EV credits will be higher this year for Tesla. The lots can only fill up so much before VW has to stop this tactic.
It also sounds like they won't even be able to fill up the lots thanks to their inaction on securing batteries and chips.
Alex on Twitter: "VWs supply crisis deepens Not only that VW doesn't have a sufficient chip supply, not having enough batteries supply is the next problem VWs worker council head, Osterloh, "We don't have enough battery cells to fill all the orders"" / Twitter
So they don't have enough batteries to even fill the "orders" that are just going to be sold themselves.
You can't make this up haha
You seem to be newer here? Had not heard of the uproar after Elon's tweet about funding secured? Nor the $20M fine SEC deemed fit (on very hazy legal grounds) to lay on both Elon and Tesla for hurting "investors" -- which Elon was quick to make the company whole for by buying new shares for that amount. Which turned out to be a big gain. Sorry, Short-seller Enrichment Commission.
There has been a revolving door between SEC and WS for quite some time. They don't like us very much.
You seem to be newer here? Had not heard of the uproar after Elon's tweet about funding secured? Nor the $20M fine SEC deemed fit (on very hazy legal grounds) to lay on both Elon and Tesla for hurting "investors" -- which Elon was quick to make the company whole for by buying new shares for that amount. Which turned out to be a big gain. Sorry, Short-seller Enrichment Commission.
There has been a revolving door between SEC and WS for quite some time. They don't like us very much.
I was a lurker long before I joined here. My first TSLA buys date back well before 2013
.And again......people should have a sense of responsibility when posting. You've had multiple people here point out how silly it is to be fearful of any SEC action. I still don't even know what you think Tesla or Elon would be in trouble for. I guess that's what I'm really unclear about here. What is the thing you actually think they're in trouble for?
Edit: And to be clear, sorry not trying to get on you. But it's been shown that FUD gets published from conversation that happens here on this forum from people lurking or care-bears. Not saying you're one of them
.2nd Edit: If I sound a bit annoyed, sorry I don't mean to be. But it's kinda gotten to a point where everyone here, on Twitter, Youtubers, etc...have had their chance to voice their displeasure about the bitcoin purchase and now everyone just needs to accept it or don't and just sell. I'm part of the impartial crowd that is just sitting here waiting for this discussion to be over with haha
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If you don’t trust Tesla with your money the solution is very simple, just don’t give it to them: invest at some other place.
Personally, I see fiat as a depreciating asset. I strongly approve of investing it for returns while it keeps our company conveniently liquid.
Yeah, they are quickly running out of airfield parking space after Berlin Airport
Like I already said, SEC has not been eager to follow open rules in the past. Why rely on their honesty now, all of a sudden?I was a lurker long before I joined here. My first TSLA buys date back well before 2013
And again......people should have a sense of responsibility when posting. You've had multiple people here point out how silly it is to be fearful of any SEC action. I still don't even know what you think Tesla or Elon would be in trouble for. I guess that's what I'm really unclear about here. What is the thing you actually think they're in trouble for?
Thanks, just saw that after starting to reply. I can go back to your previous lurk mode. (My avatar is auto-ban, after all ... )Edit: And to be clear, sorry not trying to get on you. But it's been shown that FUD gets published from conversation that happens here on this forum from people lurking or care-bears. Not saying you're one of them
Words of HABIT
Member
This is the march of the nines. 99.8% is nowhere near ready for mainstream release. This metric would result in a crash one in every 998 drives. Current human averages are an accident for approximately every 200,000 miles. Tesla would be looking to improve this 10X for an accident rate of one every 2 million miles. At this rate, for FSD Level 5, Tesla needs a 99.99995% success rate. It will never be perfect, however the FSD crash rate needs to be significantly lower than current human averages to gain full acceptance by governing juristictions.
EDIT: Ha ha. What @adiggs said.
Prunesquallor
His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
In reality, the EU needs to clarify the definition of "vehicle sales" to close this loophole.
Yeah yeah I know, my numbers weren't precise. I was merely stating that Elon wants a high degree of safety certainty before releasing Level 5. 99.8% was incorrect, I think Elon's actual percentage was 99.9998% or something?
AZRI11
Member
This would be the first tax credit that starts in the middle of a calendar year. If this is so, that would stall U.S. delivery for Tesla as long as this bill is debated. Tesla is paying a lot of money to lobbyists, Zach is on this, if he isn't Elon is not going to be very pleased. In other words, heads will roll. Just had a thought, what if they sell BTC and use the profits to lower prices in the U.S. while this bill is debated, take 5k off at purchase. When bill is passed go back to regular prices.
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Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Another video that makes me want to double down my investment in TSLA at $780
You can't.
A dealer is a seperate corporate entity .. like the pastery next door needing a delivery-vehicle.. You cannot see a difference in those sales between 2 random corporate entities ..
But they need to be registered for that sale & this makes problems with governmental subsidies (as in some jurisdictions you only get them on brand-new and not on pre-owned vehicles). In germany you can take the 9k in subsidies in the first 6 months after the INITIAL sale. So it just buys you time. For every vehicle that used that loophole in 2020 you can basically subtract 1 eligible sale in 2021 - but this is a problem for FUTURE manufacturers, not the NOW manufacturers
And dealers must hope to sell them within 6 months or accept a heavy loss due to non-eligebility for governmental subsidies.
One reason why they did it: In 2020 every EV got counted with a factor of 2. In 2021 the factor decreases to 1.66. For a VW id.3 this translates to 10k€ per vehicle in evaded fines for 2020, but only ~8500€ per vehicle in 2021.
But things will get WAY worse for them.
2020 was still using NEDC for the calculation of ICE. 2022 will use WTLP. Roughly 20% more CO2 per car on paper that need to be offset with EVs.
To add insult to injury: currently they do not have to pay fines on the 5% WORST polluters they sold. This will get slashed pretty soon as well.
There will be billions in fines in the next years. And one american car-company with a HUGE pool of credits ready to sell them for .. lets say 90% of the fines value ..
What many are missing is that this BTC buy represents Tesla’s treasury function fulfilling its mandate of managing the company’s war chest. Most healthy Fortune 500 companies will carry more cash on hand than they need to fund their near and medium term operating requirements. That excess cash is meant to be used opportunistically or as reserves for black swan events. That cash will often be invested in T-bills or government bonds, many of which have carried near zero if not negative yield curves (especially when you consider that low interest rates would not even compensate for inflation). Treasury functions around the globe are looking for means of putting that unused cash to work and BTC is becoming the answer. It’s no longer a speculative bet. It’s a legitimately uncorrelated asset class that isn’t going to be subject to the same macro economic forces that currencies or equity markets will be. People trying to value it like other assets are just stuck in trying to compare apples to oranges.
The true unlock of value is when BTC suddenly becomes more than just an inflationary hedge. When customers and suppliers start accepting transactions in BTC, we are going to see an adoption velocity that people are going to be blind sided by. A genuine universal, frictionless, fully traceable currency. Not to say BTC is the right crypto asset to fulfill that need, but sometimes the first mover and recognizable brand wins that race, even against better use case competitors (Microsoft anyone...)?
Anyone that’s every worked with large businesses and has tried to move material sums of money between jurisdictions, particularly Asia or Latin America, can appreciate what removing that friction means to the working capital and treasury function of these businesses.
I’ll repeat... anyone liquidating their Tesla positions because of BTC are being distracted and short sighted as to where global finance and monetary policy is heading... and ultimately are forgetting that this is still the beginning of Tesla’s journey.
With Schwab also and It’s states TSLA is 40% and I’m 95%+ in Tesla and 100s shares margined.
ByeByeJohnny
Member
Tesla will lobby for this to be passed asap, not retroactively.
There is no benefit to Tesla, actually it's the opposite, if all Tesla vehicles is retroactively eligible for the tax rebate. Because those cars are already sold. This would lower the number of future cars that will get the rebate.
There is also a decently high risk that if ALL cars sold in 2021 is counted instead of only those from a date in the next couple of weeks that will make Tesla pass the 400,000 mark a quarter earlier, thus missing out on a quarter (Q1 or Q2 in 2022) when they would sell 150.000-200,000 cars. Why would Tesla want to risk this just to get a retroactive rebate on much fewer already sold cars from Q1 2021.
The same goes for GM actually. So making it retroactive would be hurtful to the US manufacturers and help the Europeans and Asians.
insaneoctane
Active Member
Many people would agree that Tesla had a big hand in getting BTC to $50K+ with their $1.5B investment. What do we think the likelihood of BTC coming down significantly if Tesla were to sell all $2.45B that they now have? Wonder if it would create a new buying opportunity.....hmmmmm.
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