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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

insaneoctane

Active Member
Apr 6, 2016
3,369
5,184
Southern California
Tesla will lobby for this to be passed asap, not retroactively.

There is no benefit to Tesla, actually it's the opposite, if all Tesla vehicles is retroactively eligible for the tax rebate. Because those cars are already sold. This would lower the number of future cars that will get the rebate.

There is also a decently high risk that if ALL cars sold in 2021 is counted instead of only those from a date in the next couple of weeks that will make Tesla pass the 400,000 mark a quarter earlier, thus missing out on a quarter (Q1 or Q2 in 2022) when they would sell 150.000-200,000 cars. Why would Tesla want to risk this just to get a retroactive rebate on much fewer already sold cars from Q1 2021.

The same goes for GM actually. So making it retroactive would be hurtful to the US manufacturers and help the Europeans and Asians.
Also, if we PRETEND that politicians want what they say, which this bill implies they want to sell more EVs by passage of this bill, there’s no reason to look backwards towards EVs already sold...obviously they sold without requiring additional incentive.
 

cliffski

Member
Sep 4, 2018
889
10,498
UK
People keep characterising critics of teslas BTC move as either not understanding BTC or thinking its a bad investment. This is not the whole story. I think BTC might be a good short term investment, but its not one I want a company thats 'accelerating the transition to renewable energy' to be making.
You can see a move makes economic sense but also disapprove. I don't want tesla to use cobalt from Congo or employ prison labour, even though both would probably reduce costs.

Some of us invest in tesla because of their mission, not entirely to make money.
 

AZRI11

Member
Sep 2, 2016
876
5,378
Rhode Island/Azores
Tesla will lobby for this to be passed asap, not retroactively.

There is no benefit to Tesla, actually it's the opposite, if all Tesla vehicles is retroactively eligible for the tax rebate. Because those cars are already sold. This would lower the number of future cars that will get the rebate.

There is also a decently high risk that if ALL cars sold in 2021 is counted instead of only those from a date in the next couple of weeks that will make Tesla pass the 400,000 mark a quarter earlier, thus missing out on a quarter (Q1 or Q2 in 2022) when they would sell 150.000-200,000 cars. Why would Tesla want to risk this just to get a retroactive rebate on much fewer already sold cars from Q1 2021.

The same goes for GM actually. So making it retroactive would be hurtful to the US manufacturers and help the Europeans and Asians.
If the Senate uses "reconciliation" like with covid relief bill, this is going to take some time to pass. June or July at the earliest. They will never find ten Republicans to support climate bill because this is wrongly tied to AOC and her "new green deal" West Virginia coal miners pension funds will be restored to "bribe" Dem. Senator Manchin into supporting climate bill.
 
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st_lopes

Member
Aug 3, 2020
279
2,493
Canada
People keep characterising critics of teslas BTC move as either not understanding BTC or thinking its a bad investment. This is not the whole story. I think BTC might be a good short term investment, but its not one I want a company thats 'accelerating the transition to renewable energy' to be making.
You can see a move makes economic sense but also disapprove. I don't want tesla to use cobalt from Congo or employ prison labour, even though both would probably reduce costs.

Some of us invest in tesla because of their mission, not entirely to make money.

I don’t necessarily see those two as mutually exclusive when it comes to BTC and sustainability. I’ve worked with several BTC miners in setting up new facilities in locations with the most affordable, accessible, and fully renewable/sustainable energy sources available.

Tesla turning jurisdictions in to self sustaining, solar producing farms can just easily help turn BTC’s power consumption in to an opportunity for advancing the mission.
 

KevinR

TSLA long since 2011
Dec 9, 2012
510
5,118
Colorado
Screenshot 2021-02-20 152938.jpg


I wish we could move on from BTC and bickering to the really important stuff...
Like WTF does this mean?

;)
 
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lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,912
19,512
Bavaria
Imagine how wonderful it would be if Tesla would announce on the Q1 earnings call that it was going to pay for the new India GF with the $1B in BTC profits, and that Tesla would reinvest the original $1.5B in Cathy Wood’s ARK funds.

While I can't really see how it aligns with Tesla's business model to buy Bitcoin, I can sort of accept the underlying rationale that it diversifies the exchange-rate-risk inherent in a multi-currency business. Maybe. Or perhaps its a clever, short term investment (announce the BTC-investment, wait for this to cause an increase in the price, then sell for a profit and be done with it).

However, I find it disconcerting when there are actual investments - or suggestions of investments - of Tesla's cash into something that is not actually aligned with Tesla's business model.

To me this suggests a belief that Tesla's cash is not best spent furthering its own business model, but better left to someone else to look after.

I belong to an unfortunately too small group of people who actually understand the meaning of exponential growth. So I understand as well as everyone else - or possibly even better - that a company that already grows by a staggering 50% annually really cannot hope to further increase that insane growth rate by spending _more_ money on growth.

But still, Tesla has some of the brightest minds around and have found innovative solutions to all kinds of different problems. So I am somewhat disappointed that they have not chosen to spend some money on aspects of their own business that would pay back in the longer run. I mean Elon Musk goes on about how it is insanely difficult to mass produce cars cheaply and that Tesla need to play a 'game of pennies' and how Tesla need to save on all aspects of its business. Fine - and I guess they got rid of their barnacles on barnacles.

Well, if Tesla has so much cash that they can't meaningfully spend it on growth, maybe they should think about how to spend it in on their own business in a manner, where it still comes back to them at a later stage.

For example, Tesla does not allow transfer of FSD from one car to another (something that I am so far unaffected by, but which is a real problem for people who total their FSD-equipped Tesla). Well, maybe the goodwill gotten from introducing conditions under which FSD could be transferred would give them more goodwill - and maybe help some doubters that FSD is actually worth it.

I have been to an understaffed, overworked service center, and I don't think I am the only one. So increasing the staffing on understaffed service centers would increase customer satisfaction.

Or what about increasing the amenities at certain superchargers, like making sure there something as simple as sufficient waste bin capacity ? Something more expensive, but excellent for Tesla's image would be PV-roofs over more supercharger stations - even if Tesla couldn't spare battery cells for storage there, they could negotiate the right to sell power back to the grid. Actually, with e.g. 3kW PV per stall, Tesla could initially accept the lower capacity factor from having no storage at all. Anyway, it should be easy to come up with ideas for how to put a bit of that cash to work, directly furthering the company's goals.

Prove me wrong.
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Mar 8, 2012
19,516
21,710
Texas
To me this suggests a belief that Tesla's cash is not best spent furthering its own business model, but better left to someone else to look after.
Did you really mean this the way it sounds--give the money to a "Financial Advisor"? Might as well just leave it in your checking account.
 
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EVWatcher

Member
Jan 18, 2021
165
961
Earth
It came from this article: A Fork in the Road

It certainly looks to be used in the blog. But it could just as easily be a hint that Marscoin or something of that nature is under development given that yesterday his profile pic was a bitcoin anime girl.

Fork (software development) - Wikipedia
https://www.bitcoinforks.io/

Regardless, I think its unlikely to be directly Tesla related so it make sense to continue dicussing it here maybe? Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread
 

Big Time

Member
May 8, 2020
588
3,126
Minneapolis
What we do know about Tesla & Kirkhorn & Elon is they ALL know how close Tesla was from bottoming out during the Model 3 ramp. That was very recent and fresh in their minds. When I look at some analysts EPS estimates for Q4 2021 and onward, Tesla will be raking in the money.

There is no way anyone with clout @ the Tesla conference table would not only recommend the Bitcoin transaction, but also actually going through with it WITHOUT a clear roadmap to the financials that Tesla would need for this type of investment to be both in the best interest for the company but also a SAFE investment.

Where are you all looking for quarter to quarter EPS estimates for 2021? Tired of Gary, but the man does know financials. I would like more research ideas if anyone can recommend.

I am decent at looking at automotive deliveries/revenues and margins but as soon as EPS comes into play I’m still confused where these guys get their estimates without really diving into Tesla energy expenses/operating expenses with the factory builds. All of this which I don’t have any resources for.

hoping for a green Monday, hope you all have a nice weekend.
 

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