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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So if both fiscal and monetary policy are expansionary; and inflation does not appear to be a short/mid term concern - what's the driver?
This recovery is partially due to everyone's home Improvement (better than an infrastructure bill IMO bc it's spread out).
I'm doing the yard now myself bc everyone is booked up for months. It's driving inflation as well, and "cheap labor" is $20/hr now in Az.
So my hands are literally sore, but my bones are made of diamonds.

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Also, based on this only: "Elon Musk said in July that the company would not make the lower-end version of the vehicle because the 244 miles of range was not suitable."

... a side-effect is that people are now learning that 244 mi range is not enough! "Here you go, you can almost afford it... nope, it's no good." There's a lot of "competition" coming between now and 2025 in that range. This gets the word out that it's not enough. It's maybe a stretch, but also a valid PR afterthought as some justification for possible low interest without actually saying that. If there's not enough sales, there comes a point where it impacts factory output. That's what I think happened - base on no knowledge here.
 
Why is anyone even discussing a model 2 for the US market? The Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster 2 and more model Y is up next.

Fremont factory is overflowing. Austin factory is working hard to be built and able to get any cars out this year. Those will be Cybertrucks and model y. That building will then be full and spend 2022 ramping up. Tesla needs to start building a second manufacturing building in Austin (or elsewhere in the US) and then it will be at least a year before the next model can be made.

At best we're looking at second half of 2022. More likely 2023 for a model 2.

In China they are likely to have a model 2 out earlier but there is no reason to export those to the US.

Also, even with the fastest possible timeline there is almost zero chance there will be a $19k model 2. Unless something goes really wrong Tesla will run out of the 400k quota, including the phase out, before any model 2 is made in the US.
 
Even with the ugly sub $750 figure on my screen the volume of only 20 million shares traded so far (including all those stop losses @750 - c'mon are really that many people so unimaginative that they'll put a stop loss at such a round number?) is reassuring. Look at this chart of daily volume of TSLA in the last month. The recent drop off in price is happening against the back drop of daily volume going down, and down and down... Loaded spring anyone?

View attachment 638912

So what's gonna put the "boing!" back in the spring? FSD announcement? Or perhaps EV legislation bringing back the fed tax credit?
 
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I get the feeling that if the markets were ripping up whatever news TSLA is selling off over would have resulted in the opposite movement.

I do not see what is so negative about what we know so far today outside of spin.

Think TSLA ran up a lot, and it is easy for now to walk it down, especially with the QQQs getting whacked.
 
This comes down to your risk tolerance and how quickly you think the stock will rise (or not). There's no right answer.

Also from a technical standpoint you never know for sure that you're actually buying "at a low" until later. You just simply have to make your own judgments with these things.

If you want my hunch on trajectory, read what options I bought today and try not to interpret that as "irrational exuberance"

My risk tolerance is uncomfortably high with Tesla. But I recognize the danger of asking myself can I afford to pay this interest payment until stock goes up.... just because the answer is yes.... doesn't mean it's smart.

What's that saying? "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

sunk cost fallacy versus persistence and holding....

But my pride is not allowing me to do that yet. But I get the feeling, I made my timing error.... perhaps it is time to let it go pay off the margin and ride the storm out.... it is one of those moments, where I momentum shifted and I got stubborn.... lesson learned. I just don't want to get rid of the fantasy of my springy bounce just yet.
 
So what's gonna put the "boing!" back in the spring? FSD announcement? Or perhaps EV legislation bringing back the fed tax credit?

Not sure exactly. I like the stock, though.

No but seriously, I like the way DFV talks; the stock is currently trading below its fair value, so there should be no need for any particular unexpected event to "release the spring". In fact, just business as usual, a steady flow of information from the company even if none of this information is unexpectedly good should do it. Also, the analogy to a spring being compressed contains in it the notion of the spring going back to its original position through a natural reversal of whatever "artificial" forced that compressed it.
 
Thanks for the vid - exciting to see the Roadrunner building looking much more finished - hopefully that means they're scaling well.

Scrappage from the casting machines was a little more than I was expecting. But there's far more than this that look usable - so yield is probably pretty good.
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That’s not scrap. It’s future Martian coin.
 
I would appreciate comments but not advice regarding the relative pro-con/less stupid form of TSLA investing strategy: is it wiser/less dumb to keep buying lows or is it wiser/less dumb to pay down margin and not utilize cost price averaging? I ask for a very stubborn friend I know.

Play dead with vigor.
 
Folks, be careful out there. We know big auto is having supply chain problems due to semiconductor shortage. And Texas plants last week shut down making it even worse. These supply shortages could very well, and if fact I would argue, is likely to affect Tesla as well. THAT could be the reason for the standard range Model Y pull back. They are reserving chips for higher margin cars. If so, this isn't a good short term sign. It means Tesla production and top line sales would suffer until this chip shortage is resolved.

Additionally Model Y LR(including 7 seater) is the only model that is showing a delivery time of 2-6 weeks. All the other Model 3 and Model Y trims are 3-6 weeks. I think Model Y LR is probably the most optimal mix in terms of margins, demand and battery supply utilization.

One week might not mean too much but with these delivery estimates and the 1000$ price reduction you can make a case for Tesla prioritizing Model Y LR. Whether that is due to chip shortage or battery shortage is anybody's guess.
 
The MiC LFP Model 3 received an OTA update over the weekend. This fixed the charge rate (0..50% in 15 minutes; 0..100% in 50 minutes), albeit tested at higher ambient temperature. Also SoC display improved and vehicle was able to go a sustained 200 km/h.
(Video in German language)
"tested at higher ambient temperature"? How much higher? (I'm not checking myself since you said it's in German.)
 
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Also, even with the fastest possible timeline there is almost zero chance there will be a $19k model 2. Unless something goes really wrong Tesla will run out of the 400k quota, including the phase out, before any model 2 is made in the US.

Time for us to set up Tasel Motors, subcontract out design, manufacturing, delivery and support to Tesla. When we use up that quota, then set up Teasl Motors. Badge engineering at its finest, but if it means more people get the $7k tax credit then it will be worthwhile.
 
Thanks for the vid - exciting to see the Roadrunner building looking much more finished - hopefully that means they're scaling well.

Scrappage from the casting machines was a little more than I was expecting. But there's far more than this that look usable - so yield is probably pretty good.
View attachment 638899

Are these rejects being kept for some kind of post-mortem analysis? On the small assumption that the metal is actually the correctly mixed alloy it would make more sense to let them go directly back into the smelter instead of storing them (and consuming fresh metal).