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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I've mostly lurked until there was an argument about leverage in real estate where bigpeepee was right, but everyone attacked him when anyone who built a model and did a limit scenario test would see bigpeepee was right. I had to jump in because everyone else was clearly in the wrong.

I am also jumping in again now, because bigpeepee was right again about short-term dips but everyone again attacked him.

This is not about bigpeepee. It's about this forum being a hivemind. I only post to add reason to this discussion when everyone else is wrong. There is no need to post when I am in agreement with everyone. It does not add any contribution to discussion.

To anyone with no/low cash amounts, please do not worry about "missing out". There is no major catalyst for TSLA to break out of this dip in short-term. You will have plenty of time to DCA. This could last months.

You can go back to lurking now. Cheers!
 
Lucid is also doing the equivalent of power packs for commercial customers.

That's good news for all of us! I hope they end up doing at least 5% as much as Tesla.




Sales volumes aren't very low. ~ 10% of Global Retail Sales, excluding commercial vehicles. Audi, BMW, and Mercedes aren't the only luxury brands.

I know! Tesla is included in that 10%. :p
 
I am a long-term TSLA investor. I am only expressing my thoughts in short-term (Next couple of months).
I do not understand how anyone can view my posts as "trying to spread fear". I am drawing a reasonable conclusion that there needs to be a major catalyst before a run-up can start. With no major ones in short-term, it is unlikely we will trade in the 800-levels again for a couple of months.

My thoughts on your catalysts:
- The market will not believe this is possible until AFTER a good earnings call. I doubt Q1 will impress the market, as this is normally bad quarter for Tesla.
- This is not even worth talking about. You have your own thoughts on matter and I have mine. I do not think L5 is coming this year.
- The news about India factory already outed and priced-in.
- Will not change market's opinions about Tesla's forecast until good earnings call.
- What makes you think Model 2 will be announced in coming 2 months?
- I do not think this will impress markets. Ark's PT for 2024 is already far above current price. If current target is under current price and revised target is higher then that would work.
- Having enough money to ride out a crisis is not a catalyst.
- This will only be evident after earnings call, which will not come in next 2 months.

In the last month TSLA lost 31% (now gained some of that back) from $900 on effectively no news. What little news there has been is mostly positive. MIC Model 3 had sales of 15k in China and exports or 10k, Berlin continuing to get permits, roadrunner ahead of schedule, Austin ahead of schedule.

Edit: so if it could loose so much on no news then it could gain the 42% to get back to 900 on no news.
 
I am a long-term TSLA investor. I am only expressing my thoughts in short-term (Next couple of months).
I do not understand how anyone can view my posts as "trying to spread fear". I am drawing a reasonable conclusion that there needs to be a major catalyst before a run-up can start. With no major ones in short-term, it is unlikely we will trade in the 800-levels again for a couple of months.

My thoughts on your catalysts:
- The market will not believe this is possible until AFTER a good earnings call. I doubt Q1 will impress the market, as this is normally bad quarter for Tesla.
- This is not even worth talking about. You have your own thoughts on matter and I have mine. I do not think L5 is coming this year.
- The news about India factory already outed and priced-in.
- Will not change market's opinions about Tesla's forecast until good earnings call.
- What makes you think Model 2 will be announced in coming 2 months?
- I do not think this will impress markets. Ark's PT for 2024 is already far above current price. If current target is under current price and revised target is higher then that would work.
- Having enough money to ride out a crisis is not a catalyst.
- This will only be evident after earnings call, which will not come in next 2 months.

Nobody was ever able to predict when a certain catalyst will happen. The most informed Tesla investors could sometimes assume something but we were never sure.

As @Papafox has noticed many times over on his (excellent) daily thread: when Tesla starts going up, it often goes up fast, very fast, and without ANY notice.

With your reasoning you should sell half of your holdings and only reinvesting when you expect for the next catalyst to arrive. Try it and then report back how it went. Good luck /s.
 
I subscribe to Bloomberg and get daily morning emails. This morning's green energy brief has a truncated interview between Bloomberg Green and first-ever White House National Climate Advisor, Gina McCarthy (who also led the EPA under Obama). I'm going to share a few interesting points:

-Biden's climate agenda "includes a carbon-free grid by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050."

-McCarthy says: "One of the most important things is our ability to procure products and services in a way that’s going to jumpstart a clean energy economy and send the kind of market-based signals where the private sector will say, 'Aha, so we have lots of electric vehicles being purchased by the United States of America – thousands of them that they might buy every year.' We are also just not manufacturing at the levels we need. We are ceding the economy of the future to China and other countries — which is why President Biden issued a Buy America policy as well."

-When asked about last week's Texas grid fiasco, McCarthy says: "What happened in Texas was not a failure of renewable energy — just the opposite. It was the fact that they had not invested in their own systems of refineries and they did not have a grid that connected Texas with other states in a way that other states are aligned together. So it made the response much more difficult. So we all have to think differently about electricity. Everything eventually has to be electrified. And so we need to have a grid system that actually allows that to be seamless. Renewable energy is cheaper, so it doesn’t matter if you’re in a Democratic state or a Republican state, it's essential for a clean, healthy and productive future."

-When asked about what needs to be accomplished during the next four years, McCarthy says: "A lot of it is about sending strong signals to our economy. Right now we are developing a Nationally Determined Contribution, which is our way of returning to the Paris Agreement and saying what we intend to achieve for greenhouse gas reductions by 2030. And we’ll be able to underpin it. We will have actions for sectors like transportation and energy and a plan for how our investments and standards are going to push that forward. We’ll have opportunities to work with states and cities to get their take on what should happen beyond the federal government. And we’re going to stand together and make the United States a proud country again."

I don't need to spell out for you all how well this bodes for Tesla. Tesla will ride this new green industrial revolution wave well into the future--the whole world is moving towards a carbon-neutral, renewable economy based on electrified everything--anyone who is not buying Tesla at these prices is retarded.

Oh, also, here's a REAL PROBLEM for GM: 2022 Chevy Bolts drive deep '20-'21 model discounts toward $20K - Electrek

Ouch
 
Now for some real news about the company. Can anyone say Robotaxi?

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In the last month TSLA lost 31% (now gained some of that back) from $900 on effectively no news. What little news there has been is mostly positive. MIC Model 3 had sales of 15k in China and exports or 10k, Berlin continuing to get permits, roadrunner ahead of schedule, Austin ahead of schedule.

Edit: so if it could loose so much on no news then it could gain the 42% to get back to 900 on no news.

Personally, I think its trickle down effects of this EV transition and the feedback loop, in the stock, back from its effects on the viability of the entire existing industry.

Tesla Is Making It Hard For Other Car Companies To Compete | Torque News

Also, Bitcoin investment - as the days pass, to me, it seems like a hedge for the stock:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/tesla-and-bitcoins-value-are-now-linked-analyst-warns.html