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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

2daMoon

Member
Nov 25, 2020
464
3,032
Terra
But... it has an Ecoboost engine! It says Eco so that's gotta be good right?

/s
I own a Ford Transit that I converted from a used plumbing truck to something for overnight MTB trips.

It sports the Ecoboost, twin-turbo V6. Granted, there's nothing Eco about the van, but, it certainly hauls donkey down the road. At least the camping side of things is all-electric with solar panels, inverter, etc.

After suffering tremendous guilt over this misleading badge it dons, and after a little poking around Amazon, I found a replacement badge. It is styled to look like the OEM, but it says Ecobeast instead, and now resides on the rear door in place of the original.

Gotta do my part to stop the propaganda machine, right? ;)

It will probably be a few years before an E-Van is available, along with adequate charging infrastructure for getting to some of the places I like to go. I will be ready to buy it and convert it once a valid replacement is ready.

Rivian and Tesla are the best bets for the replacement and either way, TSLA will be paying for it. :cool:
 

Discoducky

Happy owner of a P100D X and a brand new 2021 M3!
Dec 25, 2011
3,345
2,615
Seattle
Once again, Lex and Jim Keller knock it out of the park. This was a great talk that covered many topics and to listen to it, you really get a great idea of what Jim is like in his entirety.

Also, I'm finding it a bit hard to describe the talk in a way that is approachable to this audience, but here goes...

TL;DListen - Dojo is a game changer for FSD as it will be 10X to 1M times more efficient while being less risky and way more scalable to solve FSD.

More details below...

Why? GPU's or other options are not designed for just solving FSD or even solving FSD the exact way that Tesla wants to solve it. When Tesla started the process of trying to solve FSD, they had no idea if or when or how often they would hit 'local maximiums' (also known as failing and 'hitting a wall' where the code would never get any better; one step forward and one step back). Building something like Dojo solves or is the least painful and/or quickest path to solving FSD as well as most likely being the cheapest. Dojo will work seamlessly with their inference chip (the chip that is in the car) to do inference as well as possibly other tasks (I won't go into that now). These chips working together also solves huge bottlenecks as iteration time is greatly reduced from training to inference as well as cost and quality. Engineers can spend more time solving FSD rather than solving infrastructure issues like throughput constraints or data quality or data structure or data cleansing...etc

Dojo will be the hardware and the entire software stack that is purpose built for one and only one purpose; Solve FSD. This is super exciting as there is nothing like in the custom chip (ASIC or other kind of chip) world. It will NOT be easily copied and sounds like they are thinking about chip scale, machine scale and network scale all as 'first class citizens' (or 'native' or maybe a better way to say this is 'No bull sh$t other code or HW that will slow down the one and only purpose of the chip).

Here's a bit more detail....Jim is building a new processor at his new company with none other than Chris Lattner (decorated senior engineer who had a stint at Tesla as well as built key parts of the Google TPU stack). Jims' new processors may or may not be specific to any single goal. He didn't say, but the compelling aspect of Dojo, in his description, has gone through 2 iterations (he calls them pivots) from when he was at Tesla.

Jim's description of what a great custom ASIC is like, is very interesting and I think, the meat of this interview for this audience.

Based on his description, Dojo is most likely going to be specific to Tesla's entire software stack while seemingly only relying on little public code (like PyTorch) so it won't be easily copied. This is key as it means once they have built the software stack they can built out the HW to be flexible enough to avoid or mitigate bottlenecks in the hardware as well as the software. Today, when you hit bottleneck in hardware or software you are most likely going to have to live with it for at least until new hardware is released or even worse, it might be just a bottleneck that your team or company has hit and it is ONLY you who hit the bottleneck and you have to solve it yourself in software or hope/pray that you can convince the hardware company to fix it in their next or future revision of hardware. Tesla has effectively reduced this to a minimum as they own the whole stack (top to bottom).

If you've made it this far, maybe you might want more details and I'd be happy to, but maybe in another thread.
 
Last edited:
Jan 19, 2013
917
10,905
Canada
What the heck is this?
- ramp to drive up so it is for finished cars
- roof only makes sense if car stays there for a while
- hole in base so car can be accessed from below

Return of the battery swap??? Doesn´t make sense after they abandoned it before...
Does anyone have a better idea?

View attachment 639638
(4 min into the video)
This is clearly a cloaking machine for the Model S Plaid.
 

Stretch2727

Engineer and Car Nut
Nov 8, 2015
489
3,329
New Jersey, USA
Not up to date here, in case this has not been discussed:


LG has begun to build a Tesla 4680 battery pilot production line, and the operation time may be ahead of Panasonic

Original source is supposedly THE ELEC, Korea Electronics Industry Media and auto translated, can´t find anything related on the english site though.

Just amazing that the experienced battery manufactures are all jumping on board with this design so quickly. I just find it hard to believe as the experts in batteries they did not come up with something similar on their own.

I hope Tesla is a least getting some exclusivity for these batteries for some time. I have not see anything to indicate that there is any restriction on the use of this technology. Elon probably let it go easy as it supports the mission they know they will still struggle to keep up with the demand if the battery costs really fall by 56%.
 

Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,792
10,564
near Houston
Once again, Lex and Jim Keller knock it out of the park. This was a great talk that covered many topics and to listen to it, you really get a great idea of what Jim is like in his entirety.

Also, I'm finding it a bit hard to describe the talk in a way that is approachable to this audience, but here goes...

TL;DListen - Dojo is a game changer for FSD as it will be 10X to 1M times more efficient while being less risky and way more scalable to solve FSD.

More details below...

Why? GPU's or other options are not designed for just solving FSD or even solving FSD the exact way that Tesla wants to solve it. When Tesla started the process of trying to solve FSD, they had no idea if or when or how often they would hit 'local maximiums' (also known as failing and 'hitting a wall' where the code would never get any better; one step forward and one step back). Building something like Dojo solves or is the least painful and/or quickest path to solving FSD as well as most likely being the cheapest. Dojo will work seamlessly with their inference chip (the chip that is in the car) to do inference as well as possibly other tasks (I won't go into that now). These chips working together also solves huge bottlenecks as iteration time is greatly reduced from training to inference as well as cost and quality. Engineers can spend more time solving FSD rather than solving infrastructure issues like throughput constraints or data quality or data structure or data cleansing...etc

Dojo will be the hardware and the entire software stack that is purpose built for one and only one purpose; Solve FSD. This is super exciting as there is nothing like in the custom chip (ASIC or other kind of chip) world. It will NOT be easily copied and sounds like they are thinking about chip scale, machine scale and network scale all as 'first class citizens' (or 'native' or maybe a better way to say this is 'No bull sh$t other code or HW that will slow down the one and only purpose of the chip).

Here's a bit more detail....Jim is building a new processor at his new company with none other than Chris Lattner (decorated senior engineer who had a stint at Tesla as well as built key parts of the Google TPU stack). Jims' new processors may or may not be specific to any single goal. He didn't say, but the compelling aspect of Dojo, in his description, has gone through 2 iterations (he calls them pivots) from when he was at Tesla.

Jim's description of what a great custom ASIC is like, is very interesting and I think, the meat of this interview for this audience.

Based on his description, Dojo is most likely going to be specific to Tesla's entire software stack while seemingly only relying on little public code (like PyTorch) so it won't be easily copied. This is key as it means once they have built the software stack they can built out the HW to be flexible enough to avoid or mitigate bottlenecks in the hardware as well as the software. Today, when you hit bottleneck in hardware or software you are most likely going to have to live with it for at least until new hardware is released or even worse, it might be just a bottleneck that your team or company has hit and it is ONLY you who hit the bottleneck and you have to solve it yourself in software or hope/pray that you can convince the hardware company to fix it in their next or future revision of hardware. Tesla has effectively reduced this to a minimum as they own the whole stack (top to bottom).

If you've made it this far, maybe you might want more details and I'd be happy to, but maybe in another thread.
Please start the new thread with more details and post the link.

Thank you very much.
 

2daMoon

Member
Nov 25, 2020
464
3,032
Terra
Just amazing that the experienced battery manufactures are all jumping on board with this design so quickly. I just find it hard to believe as the experts in batteries they did not come up with something similar on their own.

I hope Tesla is a least getting some exclusivity for these batteries for some time. I have not see anything to indicate that there is any restriction on the use of this technology. Elon probably let it go easy as it supports the mission they know they will still struggle to keep up with the demand if the battery costs really fall by 56%.
My hope is that Tesla licensed the technology to the battery manufacturers so that other EV makers may have easy access to the benefits, AND Tesla nets a little profit from every competing EV manufacturer who buy them.

Also, I kinda think that tabless 4680s made by the big 3 (Pana, LG, CATL) won't have the magical dry innards. That will be Tesla's secret sauce (or lack of sauce as it were) that gives them an edge in the marketplace with continued better performance from a Tesla.

Cha-ching!
 

Rarity

Member
Jan 29, 2009
858
3,520
Based on his description, Dojo is most likely going to be specific to Tesla's entire software stack while seemingly only relying on little public code (like PyTorch) so it won't be easily copied.

I had a very different take-away from the discussion, but admittedly I could have misunderstood him. Rather, Jim seemed to imply that Dojo was meant as a more general solution based on a blue-sky approach as to what was possible (i.e., that Dojo would have more than one customer). He was involved at the early stages, but he did not know what Dojo is at this point because of multiple pivots.

Also, I don't believe that he said that Lattner is involved in Tenstorrent, Jim's new outfit. Rather, that Jim put on a conference last year that both Lattner and Karpathy were involved in.
 

winfield100

Supporting Member
Feb 16, 2013
2,704
9,639
vivant non-traveler
What the heck is this?
- ramp to drive up so it is for finished cars
- roof only makes sense if car stays there for a while
- hole in base so car can be accessed from below

Return of the battery swap??? Doesn´t make sense after they abandoned it before...
Does anyone have a better idea?

View attachment 639638
(4 min into the video)
it’s one of the points the ?GCU? “sleeper service” displaces to and from
( i recall Elon was tweeting about Iain M Banks novel “Excession” recently)
 
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Zero CO2

a long term goal
Apr 24, 2017
768
3,151
NYC -Staten Island
Understandable, but I think that what @Todd Burch is saying is that if you're already 95%+ all-in on TSLA (like many of us), and your dollar cost basis is in the $50/share range, then this ISN'T a dip. :p

YMMY. Difference may be that Todd won't sell at a (perceived) top either, because he (like many of us) has a decade-long investment horizon. Each of us has unique goals. To me, HODL is the surest path to wealth long-term.

Cheers!
i keep buying dips and my DCA per share keeps going up ... now has crept over $100 /share was around $50 a year ago but i a have 1.5X shares ... however my thinking is when i need to sell some shares down the road i don't want them all to be 90% taxed as LT CG ... need to keep "expensive shares" to provide flexibility around the future tax burden ...

the under $50/share lots are going to be huuuge cap gains... my lot range is now from $36./share- $751/share

"wait what i am talking about the shares i bought yesterday will be huge gains in 5-10 years" o_O .... still buying the " relative" dips:D

as ever HODL
 

Chunky Jr.

Supporting Member
Mar 9, 2018
1,013
13,189
CA
The home team jumped to an early lead then nearly gave it all away before going Plaid and pulling away for a big win over the hapless Bears, ending a four game losing streak. While many fans twisted their ankles jumping off the bandwagon during the losing streak, the long term season ticket holders were rewarded with a wire to wire blowout victory.

Today

Score
: 742.02
Margin of W/L: 43.18
Attendance: 36,465,698

Season
Record
: 20-16
Total points in wins: 429.06
Total points in losses: -392.71
YTD gain/loss: 36.35 5.15%
Avg points per win: 21.45
Avg points per loss: -24.54
Best W: 63.98 2021-01-08
Worst L: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 4-6
Streak: W1
 

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