Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Ark has consistently provided a plethora of reasons why they chose Tesla. Ride Hailing is not one of them.

They have commented that getting into Ride Hailing now could be one way to increase Tesla's income. They have been repeatedly vocal about this, but have never based their projections for Tesla upon this happening.

I'm sure that there are many valid reasons that Tesla isn't interested in Ride Hailing as it would:

• add unnecessary complexity to operations
  
• add an additional human element to operation (drivers)
  
• cost them resources that could likely be better applied to FSD/Robotaxi development

It seems to me that Tesla's priorities are to get the FSD/Robotaxi project operational as soon as possible and Ride Hailing service with drivers would introduce a variable unnecessarily in order to increase revenue on a short term basis, which they don't need.

This doesn't make Ark's Ride Hailing statements wrong. What they describe would work, but they don't have Tesla's perspective for whether or not to implement it. Just because Ark comments on it in no way indicated to me that their projections for Tesla were based upon this.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think Arks analysis pre battery days has been decent. But I am not sure why they are so hung up on ride hailing post battery day. There's so much to talk about, and yet they always pick this one thing Tesla barely mentions. Alex Porter can go on for days on everything Tesla have already announced and comes up with a perfectly good bull thesis.

If robotaxi is 5+ years away, it’s probably an idea worth pursuing, as I’m sure ARK's analysis shows a decent return. Elon expects robotaxi much earlier, so he doesn’t see the point of this short-lived distraction.

edit: what @2daMoon said

 

[CLK350]

You were too fast!



Done Dojo discussion



I'll move this discussion to the thread above



This discussion as well to the new thread!

Disagree, this Dojo discussion should be kept in the main thread. Remember Tesla is like an incubator for new projects helping Tesla's mission. Dojo and the millions of MCU's on the road may or may not solve some form of AGI, but it certainly could bring tons of money if only by reselling/ leasing the FSD tech to other car manufacturers.

 

[Chocochip]

Since Tesla knew for a while about this necessary shutdown, it now makes perfect sense that they removed the lowest-margin SR Model Y from the lineup. Q1 will be mostly about high margins on fewer-than-expected deliveries. What's particularly frustrating is that this (the chip shortage) is not something Tesla could've done much to avoid or to make up for.

 

[SOULPEDL]

All this ARK bashing... that's original. Made me go out and buy some ARKW, it's like Tesla-lite with other candy.
Look, it's dropping, down .03%.
Oh Cathie...

 

[Krugerrand]

Since Tesla knew for a while about this necessary shutdown, it now makes perfect sense that they removed the lowest-margin SR Model Y from the lineup. Q1 will be mostly about high margins on fewer-than-expected deliveries. What's particularly frustrating is that this (the chip shortage) is not something Tesla could've done much to avoid or to make up for.

Where do you get Tesla knew for a while now? Because they removed a model? So you don’t believe Elon’s tweet that it was removed because it didn’t meet the range he thinks all Tesla’s should have. A point he’s made before.

I think I’ll eat cake today. That must mean I’m fat. That’s the type of connection you just made in your post.

To be clear, I have no intention of eating cake today unless it falls from the sky (no offense to cake, I like cake, it’s just I’m not in a cake chemical mood today) and medically I do not fall in the fat category.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Since Tesla knew for a while about this necessary shutdown, it now makes perfect sense that they removed the lowest-margin SR Model Y from the lineup. Q1 will be mostly about high margins on fewer-than-expected deliveries. What's particularly frustrating is that this (the chip shortage) is not something Tesla could've done much to avoid or to make up for.

1. Our Model 3 was given a new computer (free for FSD owners) sometime last year.
2. Legacy automakers have computers/chips all over the vehicle on a CAN network (both slow and old). Sub-assys would not be deliverable by their suppliers - it's a showstopper for them IMO.
3. A Tesla chip shortage, on the other hand, might mean they could make all the cars they want and install the computer on another day in about 3 hrs (only because the AC fluid needs to be refilled, the R&R was fast).

I tell ya, between the Cathie bashing and BS this morning of people spewing theories without any facts... you're just gonna make me want to buy more on basic trading principles, which is, many are pushing the fear agenda while I'm perfectly content with a shutdown and therefor TSLA is a BUY on that alone. So is ARK, IMO.

 

[buttershrimp]

But it might kill your friend if its 100% of HIS portfolio.

I loved your explanation by the way... until the sobering end... where I realize that when it comes to stock, Tesla is 99.47% of my stock holding. It’s the only company I truly know and there is something about driving by the texas factory that is so compelling that I’m thinking, this really is the only company I believe in for the next 10 years if they keep going... I think every other company on earth is lame. Hmmm Buttershrimp ETF?

Disclosure: I’m not good at “stocks” or “money” and I sometimes “scare small children”... but I like Tesla.

 

[Paracelsus]

A couple noteworthy items of discussion :

 

[buttershrimp]

Of course it does .... selling 20 M is vastly different from selling only 19.98 M cars. Its the difference between nothing-worth-mentioning and utter failure.
Musk already failed to fulfill his promise of 500k delivered cars in 2020, he only delivered 499,6k cars.
A failed company lead by a fraudulent liar.
Isn't it obvious to all?

Dammit I’m selling ... and canceling my order.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Since Tesla knew for a while about this necessary shutdown,

They did?

 

[Chocochip]

Where do you get Tesla knew for a while now? Because they removed a model? So you don’t believe Elon’s tweet that it was removed because it didn’t meet the range he thinks all Tesla’s should have. A point he’s made before.

I think I’ll eat cake today. That must mean I’m fat. That’s the type of connection you just made in your post.

To be clear, I have no intention of eating cake today unless it falls from the sky (no offense to cake, I like cake, it’s just I’m not in a cake chemical mood today) and medically I do not fall in the fat category.

Are you suggesting that, at the time the SR Model Y was removed as an option from the configurator, Tesla was NOT aware of the chip shortage (assuming that is the reason for the Fremont production line shutdown)?

Not sure why you'd get defensive on this. I never claimed Elon lied, it simply might not have been the only reason, and the timing matches my suggestion.

 

[Chocochip]

A Tesla chip shortage, on the other hand, might mean they could make all the cars they want and install the computer on another day in about 3 hrs (only because the AC fluid needs to be refilled, the R&R was fast).

Given the production rate for the Model 3 at Fremont, how many days worth of Model 3 production would you expect can be stored in their lots (including adjacent lots)? And wouldn't the production costs per vehicle increase substantially if cars were produced, driven to a separate, storage parking lot (assuming the missing chip is not required for basic driving functionality -- not sure on that) then, when the chips become available, employees need to go to each car and install these chips one by one?

 

[lafrisbee]

Often cited, but to quote:

Vogon poetry is of course, the third worst in the universe.

The second worst is that of the Azgoths of Kria. During a recitation by their poet master Grunthos the Flatulent of his poem "Ode to a Small Lump of Green Putty I Found in My Armpit One Midsummer Morning" four of his audience died of internal haemorrhaging and the president of the Mid-Galactic Arts Nobbling Council survived by gnawing one of his own legs off. Grunthos was reported to have been "disappointed" by the poem's reception, and was about to embark on a reading of his 12-book epic entitled "My Favourite Bathtime Gurgles" when his own major intestine, in a desperate attempt to save humanity, leapt straight up through his neck and throttled his brain.

The worst poetry in the Galaxy is generally attributed to Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings of 37 Wasp Villas, Greenbridge, Essex, GB10 1LL, who died, of course, when the Earth was destroyed by the Vogon constructor fleet...

An example:
"The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool.
They lay. They rotted. They turned
Around occasionally.
Bits of flesh dropped off them from
Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire.
They also smelt a great deal."

I gave you the "Disagreed" Icon to give you the Hexfecta of all six symbols... You deserve it.
However the mathematical "poetry" in the icons that showed...

• x 5
  
• x 4
  
• x 3
  
• x 2
  
• x 1
  
  0

You had 5 of one 4 of another 3 of another 2 of another 1 of another an 0 disagrees
Did not escape me, and I paused before deciding to add chaos... yet I knew sooner rather than later some luddite would vote for one of the six and ruin it anyway
So for the moment your responses now read 543211.

 

[Chocochip]

They did?

They did at some point before they sent the production workers their notices that they won't be needed for a couple of weeks. Reasonably, the management might have been aware of this situation sometime last week, before the time when the SR Model Y was pulled from the configurator.

You can't argue that Elon plays 4D chess and anticipates everything, but at the same time expect the management had no advanced knowledge that they will be hit by this chip shortage. Do you think Elon found out about it last night on Twitter?

 

[lafrisbee]

What are the odds of picking up a few more shares at $630 today?

"A snowballs chance in Texas"
WHich is exactly true...I have empirical proof from the last time there were snowballs in TX and the stock was at 630.

 

[Singuy]

Are you suggesting that, at the time the SR Model Y was removed as an option from the configurator, Tesla was NOT aware of the chip shortage (assuming that is the reason for the Fremont production line shutdown)?

Not sure why you'd get defensive on this. I never claimed Elon lied, it simply might not have been the only reason, and the timing matches my suggestion.

Everything is odd and no theory hold up water. They still discounted their cars and left them as such after cancelling the sr y. If there's one thing they shouldn't worry about is moving the low amount of m3s this quarter. Plus this shutdown is going to be a drag on margins so why reduce price? A lack of s/x deliveries compared to previous q is already killing margins.

 

[Chocochip]

Everything is odd and no theory hold up water. They still discounted their cars and left them as such after cancelling the sr y. If there's one thing they shouldn't worry about is moving the low amount of m3s this quarter. Plus this shutdown is going to be a drag on margins so why reduce price?

You're correct on most of this. But let's remember that pricing is not exclusively Tesla's means of setting their preferred margins, rather it's a way of controlling demand for a product. So, possibly (key word here) when they removed the lower-priced SR Y they knew they'd lose a bunch of potential orders, so the lowered prices for the more-expensive version was meant to compensate for those potential orders by attracting a new set of orders (which wouldn't have been placed for those products at the higher prices). That works for the Model 3 as well.

In case everyone suddenly forgot: there are two, quite separate types of "demand" we're talking about:
1. General demand for Tesla vehicles, looked at globally and over long time horizons
2. Local & time-frame limited demand (for example: demand for the Model 3 LR on the West Coast in March).

Limited type-2 demand doesn't imply limited type-1 demand, but it still affects quarterly results.

 

[asburgers]

(Patiently waiting for the JPOW printer to turn on)...kicks empty tin can.

 

[Tslynk67]

Not greet news but will be a blip long term.

If there was downtime, hopefully Tesla would be able to figure out a way to squeeze some benefit out of it.

View attachment 639760

This was already alluded to by Troy yesterday - I hear that it was due to Samsung stopping production of chips in Texas due to the harsh weather conditions. Apologies if all this has already been posted, I'm a little behind on the thread (too many meetings in the day-job):

24 Feb 2021: Hi everybody. There is a new development at Fremont. I was told that based on a drone flyover, yesterday on 23 February there were no new cars in the parking area where they load the cars into trucks but the employee parking lot was full. So, I tried to find out what's going on and apparently there is a part shortage from a supplier and they are taking the opportunity to address some needed downtime. I don't know how long this is going to last but I will let you know if I find out. I will have some DMV data on 3 March and I will analyze the daily deliveries to see what it shows. That's all I have for now.