Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

Bears jumping over rumors of a shutdown. Which is strange given that number of vehicles in the parking lot increased yesterday:
https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1364776307792310277

But it seems Tesla took some downtime on some lines to do maintainance/upgrade that might have been forced due to production stop for Samsung in Texas. And maybe they decided to cut out Model Y SR brecause of this. But it’s not the end of the world to schedule maintenance/upgrades a few weeks earlier than expected and mostly we have heard this one so many times in the past and it didn’t matter back then so why should it matter now.

I think this actually happened at the least worst time - if that makes sense. They were able to complete most if not all of the overseas production and US deliveries are less of a logistics headache if they have to make up for time lost.

 

[Davidzhao365]

Bears jumping over rumors of a shutdown. Which is strange given that number of vehicles in the parking lot increased yesterday:
https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1364776307792310277

But it seems Tesla took some downtime on some lines to do maintainance/upgrade that might have been forced due to production stop for Samsung in Texas. And maybe they decided to cut out Model Y SR brecause of this. But it’s not the end of the world to schedule maintenance/upgrades a few weeks earlier than expected and mostly we have heard this one so many times in the past and it didn’t matter back then so why should it matter now.

I am glad my video is helpful!

 

[StealthP3D]

So my thoughts on Ark is conflicted.

So Ark gained most if not all their credibility through their conviction on Tesla, plain and simple.

Sigh....no, that's completely wrong. TSLA was simply their highest conviction stock and therefore their largest holding. The fact that it has been one of the best performing stocks has certainly supercharged the performance of ARK funds that hold TSLA but ARK's performance is impressive even if you back their best performer and largest holding out of the equation.

This brings all sorts of problems the market is dealing with currently.

Tesla's rise to fame has caused not only an stock bubble of any company that has the word EVs in any of their description, but also caused all sorts of other stock bubbles ARK decided to invest in that's not Tesla.

That's so wrong I don't know where to begin. You can't blame TSLA for bubbles in the stocks of other EV companies. This is the result of investors becoming aware that EV's really are viable and they are the future. If investors bid undeserving companies higher than they deserve then the fault lies squarely on the shoulders of those investors over-bidding. And it doesn't harm those who are not over-bidding. In fact, it can help them if they owned those companies before they were bid up. All they have to do is sell for a nice profit.

So Nano Dimensions is probably a good example that my friend went super bull on after Ark invested in it. I still don't see the appeal, it being a 2-3 billion dollar company now with revenue that's less than some of the people in this forum/year, dropping massively YOY. And also this company had money laundered before..so there are all sorts of red flags. But because Ark invested in it, the stock has done nothing but went to the sky prior to recent pull back.

I don't see the supposed problem here. So a stock got bid up too high and fell back down (according to you). So what? It happens all the time. Investors did this, not Tesla, not ARK. Why do you blame innocent bystanders who are doing what they should be doing?

There was a time when people laughed at Ark, but because of their bet on Tesla paid off big time, people are blindly following Cathie's every call and I can see how this can be a problem...just like all EV related start ups getting multiple billion dollar valuation as if all of a sudden new car companies no longer having less than 10% chance of succeeding. In fact there are EV related companies having multiple billion dollar valuation after uncovered fraud..it's crazy town all thanks to Tesla.

Again, don't blame Tesla for this simply because they are performing skillfully, blame investors. But this kind of thing happens all the time and I don't see the problem.

I still think how Ark valuated Tesla is completely speculative because it's based on human ride hailing program Elon is not even enthusiastic about. I see Rob Mauer's model mention it at about never.

Of course ARK's valuation of TSLA is speculative- that's the number one job of investors- to be speculators! That's how investing works (through speculating). I shouldn't even be wasting my time addressing such ridiculous assertions.

I'm stunned that you think an investor should do anything else other than speculate. And quit blaming Tesla and Cathie Wood for doing their job when the things you are worried about are 100% due to other investor's actions. If there is blame, put it on the people responsible. And it's not even clear why you are concerned- investors have a long history of bidding some stocks far beyond any rational hope - it all gets taken care of in the end.

 

[StealthP3D]

My example of Ark's ride hailing thesis is to point out that they don't do the highest quality DD unlike Rob Mauer, and this is their biggest position.

It's up to each individual investor to make those judgments. By all means, if you think poor analysis by ARK has caused the price to go too high, short it! People putting money where their mouth is, well, that's what makes a market.

Complaining that you think things are out of whack gets you nowhere.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Well, the rally was nice while it lasted.

Thanks, poetry.

(Vogon poetry is the only exception)

Often cited, but to quote:

Vogon poetry is of course, the third worst in the universe.

The second worst is that of the Azgoths of Kria. During a recitation by their poet master Grunthos the Flatulent of his poem "Ode to a Small Lump of Green Putty I Found in My Armpit One Midsummer Morning" four of his audience died of internal haemorrhaging and the president of the Mid-Galactic Arts Nobbling Council survived by gnawing one of his own legs off. Grunthos was reported to have been "disappointed" by the poem's reception, and was about to embark on a reading of his 12-book epic entitled "My Favourite Bathtime Gurgles" when his own major intestine, in a desperate attempt to save humanity, leapt straight up through his neck and throttled his brain.

The worst poetry in the Galaxy is generally attributed to Paula Nancy Millstone Jennings of 37 Wasp Villas, Greenbridge, Essex, GB10 1LL, who died, of course, when the Earth was destroyed by the Vogon constructor fleet...

An example:
"The dead swans lay in the stagnant pool.
They lay. They rotted. They turned
Around occasionally.
Bits of flesh dropped off them from
Time to time. And sank into the pool's mire.
They also smelt a great deal."

 

[StealthP3D]

What she does is like running a mutual fund, but when successful, they also can get too big if they don’t close fund to new investors they keep having to buy more and more stock with new investor money, which isn’t a good reason to buy sometimes.

Cathie is not new to investing and is very familiar with different methods of valuing the worth of a company. If her rating system determines the company is overvalued, her rating system automatically moves other companies up the conviction scale. This leads to funneling new money into companies with a better projected return. There is no limit to the number of companies they can invest in.

In other words, if they determine a holding is overvalued, they will be selling it, not buying.

 

[chrsk]

759$ in frankfurt pre-market before it was walked down to 728$ when the US pre-market opened on light volume...

 

[petit_bateau]

MODS: This may be of general interest to genpop , but off course, feel free to kick it to a sub-forum.



The only way that I can make sense of DOJO being generic is if DOJO is actually a trojan horse kind of tech for solving AGI !!
Is there a chance that this is actually what Tesla is trying to do? Or am I flying of a tangent here?
(How does that rhyme with Elons continued warnings about AI?)

Or, if DOJO does not solve AGI entirely, then solves an at least a large subset of AGI. Or perhaps doesn't quite solve, but boosts other known techniques by a significant order of magnitude - a kind of AGI runway. Which in the end may be the missing link for solving AGI ?..!
Maybe Elon concluded that FSD was close enough to AGI that he might as well solve for AGI. And then get FSD 'for free'.
If that is the case, then solving for a subset of AGI is worth a ... what is the level above?
Most of us are getting used to Tesla being 10+ startups. I used to think that solving FSD was worth a lot - to mankind, but also to us fans and investors. Solving AGI (or a significant subset) Danm! That is is 'huger than huge'.

If true, then someone PM Warren Redlich - his most crazy estimates are way too conservative!

(AGI: Artificial General Intelligence)

My take on it is that indeed FSD solves a heck of a lot of generalised AI, sufficient to be able to handle a lot of other tasks that are very meaningful both for general commerce & society, and also meaningful for nation-states. The implications of the "nation-states" aspect is going to cause some massive ramifications in the years to come.

 

[Matias]

Tesla Temporarily Halts Production at Model 3 Line in California

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla Temporarily Halts Production at Model 3 Line in California

And ofcourse they quote some FUD from a random guy called Gordon Johnson. “When considering Tesla had excess inventory in the fourth quarter of 2020, and has never been able to sell-out its production capacity, we see the company as currently demand constrained, rather than production constrained.” The writer calls him 'founder' of Research LLC. If I go to the Chamber of Commerce tomorrow and start FUD Inc., will I also be quoted by Bloomberg?

 

[Johan]

Tesla Temporarily Halts Production at Model 3 Line in California

"Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb 22 until March 7, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Impacted staff were told they would be paid for Feb 22 and Feb 23 and not paid for Feb 28, March 1, 2 and 3. They were advised to take vacation time, if they had it."

This will probably push the stock price down slightly in pre-market and on open, Tesla will probably comment during the day?

As an aside: Is it legal in the US to not pay workers when production is shut down on short notice? In any part of western Europe that I know of it would be unheard of for the workes not to get paid, if not 100% then at least a substantial percentage of their salary (I think the English term is "redundancy pay"?)

 

[UkNorthampton]

"Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb 22 until March 7, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Impacted staff were told they would be paid for Feb 22 and Feb 23 and not paid for Feb 28, March 1, 2 and 3. They were advised to take vacation time, if they had it."

This will probably push the stock price down slightly in pre-market and on open, Tesla will probably comment during the day?

As an aside: Is it legal in the US to not pay workers when production is shut down on short notice? In any part of western Europe that I know of it would be unheard of for the workes not to get paid, if not 100% then at least a substantial percentage of their salary (I think the English term is "redundancy pay"?)

"Redundancy" is when people leave the organisation. I think USA English is "Severance Pay".

Western Europe - mostly true but probably not in UK, depending on contracts. We also have the lovely zero hour contract, fixed term contracts, lower employer tax on part-timers & temporary agency workforce concepts. Provides employer flexibility & no incentive to train or increase productivity.

 

[Singuy]

Sigh....no, that's completely wrong. TSLA was simply their highest conviction stock and therefore their largest holding. The fact that it has been one of the best performing stocks has certainly supercharged the performance of ARK funds that hold TSLA but ARK's performance is impressive even if you back their best performer and largest holding out of the equation.





That's so wrong I don't know where to begin. You can't blame TSLA for bubbles in the stocks of other EV companies. This is the result of investors becoming aware that EV's really are viable and they are the future. If investors bid undeserving companies higher than they deserve then the fault lies squarely on the shoulders of those investors over-bidding. And it doesn't harm those who are not over-bidding. In fact, it can help them if they owned those companies before they were bid up. All they have to do is sell for a nice profit.



I don't see the supposed problem here. So a stock got bid up too high and fell back down (according to you). So what? It happens all the time. Investors did this, not Tesla, not ARK. Why do you blame innocent bystanders who are doing what they should be doing?



Again, don't blame Tesla for this simply because they are performing skillfully, blame investors. But this kind of thing happens all the time and I don't see the problem.



Of course ARK's valuation of TSLA is speculative- that's the number one job of investors- to be speculators! That's how investing works (through speculating). I shouldn't even be wasting my time addressing such ridiculous assertions.

I'm stunned that you think an investor should do anything else other than speculate. And quit blaming Tesla and Cathie Wood for doing their job when the things you are worried about are 100% due to other investor's actions. If there is blame, put it on the people responsible. And it's not even clear why you are concerned- investors have a long history of bidding some stocks far beyond any rational hope - it all gets taken care of in the end.

Except I'm not blaming Tesla or ark. I was talking about why individual investors are acting the way there are currently. ARK and Tesla is just doing their thing. And I just pointed out why people shouldn't treat ARK as this all mighty clairvoyant just because they got something right. Investors shouldn't think new start up car company is now a recipe for success just because Tesla made it. It's not teslas or arks fault individual investors has warped their perspective.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla Temporarily Halts Production at Model 3 Line in California

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

 

[lascavarian]

As an aside: Is it legal in the US to not pay workers when production is shut down on short notice?

It can vary by state. Generally, a short shutdown is up to the employer. If a shutdown goes beyond a certain length of time maybe 2 weeks, the employee can file for state paid assistance until called back or dropped off state compensation the duration of which varies by state.

Employers pay into state insurance to partially compensate the state. States may change (raise) the rate employers contribute as an incentive to avoid layoffs. This tends to encourage short layoffs.

Alternately, employers can just terminate employees at will in many states. There is zero commitment to employment resulting in employees sometimes working for many months as temporary employees. This (temp employees) artificially inflates the revenue per employee metric investors look at.

 

[Drax7]

So my thoughts on Ark is conflicted.

So Ark gained most if not all their credibility through their conviction on Tesla, plain and simple. This brings all sorts of problems the market is dealing with currently.

Tesla's rise to fame has caused not only an stock bubble of any company that has the word EVs in any of their description, but also caused all sorts of other stock bubbles ARK decided to invest in that's not Tesla.

So Nano Dimensions is probably a good example that my friend went super bull on after Ark invested in it. I still don't see the appeal, it being a 2-3 billion dollar company now with revenue that's less than some of the people in this forum/year, dropping massively YOY. And also this company had money laundered before..so there are all sorts of red flags. But because Ark invested in it, the stock has done nothing but went to the sky prior to recent pull back.

There was a time when people laughed at Ark, but because of their bet on Tesla paid off big time, people are blindly following Cathie's every call and I can see how this can be a problem...just like all EV related start ups getting multiple billion dollar valuation as if all of a sudden new car companies no longer having less than 10% chance of succeeding. In fact there are EV related companies having multiple billion dollar valuation after uncovered fraud..it's crazy town all thanks to Tesla.

I still think how Ark valuated Tesla is completely speculative because it's based on human ride hailing program Elon is not even enthusiastic about. I see Rob Mauer's model mention it at about never.

My views on Ark align with yours, she got Tesla right it seems for the wrong reasons , robotaxis, and now everything she promotes flies in sympathy . Her analysis is very superficial.

 

[tstolze]

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

I know there is a small delay after the assembly line, but people are still receiving VIN’s for Model 3’s, many reported yesterday/overnight here on the forums. Hopefully it’s just a maintenance window that Tesla decided to take with auto sales in the 1st quarter normally lower, atleast for traditional auto makers.

 

[winfield100]

My views on Ark align with yours, she got Tesla right it seems for the wrong reasons , robotaxis, and now everything she promotes flies in sympathy . Her analysis is very superficial.

may we have a few specific examples please.

 

[WarpedOne]

'Hitting maximum deliveries is crucial for Tesla in order for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk to meet his ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars a year by 2030.'

Bloomberg seems to think this two week, single model shutdown at one factory throws Tesla's ten year growth plans into jeopardy.

Of course it does .... selling 20 M is vastly different from selling only 19.98 M cars. Its the difference between nothing-worth-mentioning and utter failure.
Musk already failed to fulfill his promise of 500k delivered cars in 2020, he only delivered 499,6k cars.
A failed company lead by a fraudulent liar.
Isn't it obvious to all?

 

[Singuy]

I know there is a small delay after the assembly line, but people are still receiving VIN’s for Model 3’s, many reported yesterday/overnight here on the forums. Hopefully it’s just a maintenance window that Tesla decided to take with auto sales in the 1st quarter normally lower, atleast for traditional auto makers.

It is a good opportunity to convert m3 line into gigacasting, however if that's the case then it's not due to want but need. Elon recently said to Munro updating the m3 to gigacasting without another factory online will kill cash flow. So Tesla might just be making lemonade with the chip shortage lemons they were dealt.