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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

phantasms

Mr Self Destruct
Supporting Member
50 more at 701.
But getting low on cash... what is that couch trick?

Just ask it nicely.

Screen Shot 2021-02-25 at 12.15.35 PM.png


I'm averaged at 698!

Slowly crawling out my trading hole from last week. lol
 

Chocochip

Member
Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
861
9,064
UK
For the sake of all that is good please stop ASSUMING the shutdown is because of a chip shortage. There is no evidence of that.
Fair enough. The reports I skimmed over earlier suggested a connection, only to further down in the article to specify there's no clear info (official or otherwise) on such a connection. So it's on me (based on what I was reading last night on Twitter and then this morning) that I started with that assumption, even if not confirmed.
 

StarFoxisDown!

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2019
5,228
53,587
Seattle
I'm pretty much adopting the strategy of selling some shares and replacing them with mostly LEAPS and some later in 2021 Call options. As it goes down, I'm selling 100 shares every 15-20 points we drop.

Mostly targeting the 850, 900, and 950 March 2022 Calls. Little bit of a gut tightening moment but I think I'll be pretty happy with the strategy once we're past Q1.
 

Chocochip

Member
Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
861
9,064
UK
I haven't even been following this that closely but my understanding is that the shutdown of the Texas chip supply due to winter weather (pull it together Texas) is a very separate issue from the overall chip shortage.

Yes, that was my understanding as well. The argument I put forward above had to do strictly with the shutdown of the Samsung fab in Austin. Which, to be clear, has not been confirmed to be the source of Tesla's FSD chips (all we know is Samsung makes the chips, but no clear info on where), and neither has there been any confirmation that Tesla's production line shutdown is caused by a chip shortage.

How could Tesla know the winter weather would result in a disruption to their contracted chip supply before Samsung notified them of the problem? That's assuming the shut down is due to chip supply, of course.

That was my point precisely! It seemed like several posts implied that Tesla would have had the insight to use the imposed production constraints to do a retooling shutdown. Which, given the timescale, made no sense.
 

hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
3,103
21,861
Germany
According to a logistics guy on twitter who says he does business with Deutsche Bahn (German National Railway) they say they were asked by Tesla to provide transportation for test production in May and real production as early as July - take with a grain of salt as this is only a single twitter source:

Google Translate
 

Chocochip

Member
Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
861
9,064
UK
I’m not making any assumptions, that’s the point. I’m only accepting facts and patiently waiting for additional ones to come to light, so I can to do absolutely nothing about it regardless.

Tesla is pausing production of the 3 line in Fremont for a short period of time - not an unusual occurrence on the face of it. It’s not important why and it’s even less important for us to wildly speculate why, getting ourselves in a panicked tither.

Might this cause some short term impact to the bottom line and Q1 results? Pretty good odds of that so bet accordingly if you’re a betting person.



Not sure why you’d think my reasonable, sensible and logical post is defensive.

And no that’s not what you were suggesting or you’d have stated it as such, but we can go with it.
All I suggested was that there were two separate events that occurred at similar points in time:

1. Samsung's Austin fab got shuttered last week due to bad weather (at which point they would've reasonably informed all their customers that their respective chip orders would be delayed as a result).

2. Tesla pulled the SR Model Y from the configurator last Sunday or shortly before that.

So, ASSUMING Samsung's shuttered fab is the one manufacturing Tesla's FSD chips AND Tesla doesn't have enough supply buffer for those chips to smooth out a minimum of one-week downtime at the fab, it's reasonable to make that connection.

And, yes, again, no clear confirmation that's the case. At the same time, I wasn't panicking (or suggesting anyone should) over this.
 
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Chocochip

Member
Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
861
9,064
UK
The aux. "tent" line only produces about 2K Models 3 per week. The main line inside the factory does about 5k wk. Likely the main line is still running, and the tent is having it's infrastructure upgraded (after which time it'll be MOAR productive).

Such a nothingburger, but that's all shortzes got with such a wealthy and well-run business. :D

Cheers!
Actually, speaking of assumptions: do we have any clear source for this -- the tent line being the only one currently down -- or is it speculation? If this was already discussed, I apologise for having missed it.
 
A lot of people fail to see the position Tesla is in. If they have a shortage of a MY/M3 part, they can use the remaining supply to build just the high end cars. While cost per car may go up due to the lower quantity, they will CERTAINLY make a profit on them. So Model Y will get the pick of the litter, and Model 3 Performance will get anything it needs as well. The $38k cars will suffer. Unlike other auto makers, Tesla has things they can do to the line when it is down to improve it and space efficiency as well.

But, but no one will buy the high end cars, right, because Gordon and the other demand trolls tell me there’s a demand problem.

(VOICEOVER: There’s no demand problem and never has been.)
 
I gave you the "Disagreed" Icon to give you the Hexfecta of all six symbols... You deserve it.
However the mathematical "poetry" in the icons that showed...

  • x 5
  • x 4
  • x 3
  • x 2
  • x 1

    0
You had 5 of one 4 of another 3 of another 2 of another 1 of another an 0 disagrees
Did not escape me, and I paused before deciding to add chaos... yet I knew sooner rather than later some luddite would vote for one of the six and ruin it anyway
So for the moment your responses now read 543211.

Looking out for each other like this is what makes us a great community :)
 

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