Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

Probably not posted yet here: https://twitter.com/varneyco/status/1364935680854528000?s=21

 

[EVMeister]

Markets gonna test ARK in this environment.
But for the right price, Baillie Gifford will be buyers again ....

Ironically I've been selling some of my Baillie Gifford holdings to buy more TSLA.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm pretty much adopting the strategy of selling some shares and replacing them with mostly LEAPS and some later in 2021 Call options. As it goes down, I'm selling 100 shares every 15-20 points we drop.

Mostly targeting the 850, 900, and 950 March 2022 Calls. Little bit of a gut tightening moment but I think I'll be pretty happy with the strategy once we're past Q1.

Every 15-20 pt drop on the Call Options you buy will decrease by nearly 2X SP. On a downtrend, you will lose even more money than just holding, I think. Careful, and good luck!

 

[lklundin]

While we don't know if or how recent events at Tesla are connected, we can see that short sellers are seeing an opportunity,
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1364990468463857666

Does SEC actually oversee anything related to cryptocurrencies?

PS. I will add that this Tweet should set off all kinds of alarm bells: No indication of a source, no tagging of SEC, instead just two hashtags to create exposure...

 

[Chocochip]

Update on the production halt / scaleback:

 

[hobbes]

Actually, speaking of assumptions: do we have any clear source for this -- the tent line being the only one currently down -- or is it speculation? If this was already discussed, I apologise for having missed it.

At least they have been planning to upgrade the tent; my speculation: they might pull some of this forward to use the downtime?
Tesla files to expand Fremont factory, make Model Y 'tent' permanent

 

[SOULPEDL]

LG Energy Solutions Starts Construction of a Battery Line to Produce Tesla 4680 Cells: Report

Good stuff!
Hope they come out better than the ones LG made for Hyundai - major battery recall from "dozens of battery fires" I read.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Actually, speaking of assumptions: do we have any clear source for this -- the tent line being the only one currently down -- or is it speculation? If this was already discussed, I apologise for having missed it.

It's clearly sensationalism on the part of certain media / bloggers: notice the difference in wording between the headline in this article and the actual quote from Bloomberg:

Tesla halts Model 3 line at Fremont factory until March 7th: report

The report from Bloomberg indicated: “Staff on a Model 3 production line"​

The blogger then goes on to conflate the statement made by Zach Kirkhorn on the Q4 '20 conference call in January about potential chip shortages to support his mess of an article.

We've over-discussed this. I'm over it.

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Most of here in the TMC investment forum are "independent analysts". Will he be billing us?

And we've been right 100% on $TSLA and he has 0 start on tiprank

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I thought the re-entry of Gary Black would send $TSLA to skyrocketing....can't wait to hear his analysis about the Model 3 line being shutdown..."My revised PT is now....."

 

[JustSaying]

Didn't Tesla recently pull a permit to upgrade/update the Fremont tent?

 

[canoemore]

Honestly, TSLA seems surprisingly robust to me given the combo of line shutdown news, SEC rumors, and the broader movement of the NASDAQ today.

 

[john94si]

What in the actual Frunk

 

[GrandEnigma]

What in the actual Frunk
View attachment 639926

Market doesn't appear to be overly happy right now + TSLA getting its typical 2-3x macros.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Every 15-20 pt drop on the Call Options you buy will decrease by nearly 2X SP. On a downtrend, you will lose even more money than just holding, I think. Careful, and good luck!

I was 100% Tesla stock. Now I'm about 95% stock, 5% Calls. If it drops into the mid 600's, I'll probably change that ratio to 90% stock, 10% Calls. If it goes to 600, 85% stock 15% Calls. Short term trying to catch the bottom is pointless which is why I'm doing it in stages as it drops.

Been waiting on an opportunity to get into Calls but felt that the stock needed something like this to happen with a significant pullback in order for me to feel it's worth the additional risk over just holding stock.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

What in the actual Frunk
View attachment 639926

Be greedy when others are fearful.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Be greedy when others are fearful.

I've been greedy for the past 2 weeks....i think i have eaten all that i can handle

 

[lklundin]

Update on the production halt / scaleback:View attachment 639925

You will have to excuse me, but this account is just seeking attention - and uncritically (re)tweets anything that seems sensational - including the weird SEC tweet.

 

[buttershrimp]

Buttershrimp, my man. You only have to be right this one time. I am good at money and I always scare small children so follow me to Scrooge McDuck heaven.

Well, I'm following you literally and figuratively now. I like doing it the other way like I did the first time.... buying low and selling high..... This time, I pulled a reverse Peter Black.... using my earlier confidence to springboard into a nice bag holding position. Welp, now that my dollar cost averaging is a sweet 850ish, and I suppose I'll be able to get it to a nice 820 perhaps. I got the scrooge part down for now

 

[strago13]

Update on the production halt / scaleback:View attachment 639925

Doing back of the envelope math here for worst case...

~11 days downtime (spread over 2.5 weeks w/ day and night shift)
$45,000 average cost per car
~700 Model 3's produced per day at Fremont
~20% gross margin on each car produced

7700 Model 3 not produced
$346 million lost in revenue
$69 million lost in profit

which is equal to a devaluation of the company by ~40 billion dollars?

Insane. HODL.