Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dgodfrey]

The steep price drops occurred right before we got informal word about Fremont shutdown. I wondered at the time if it was something that Wall Street had discovered, that we knew nothing about.

if so and Gary heard through the grapevine, that could’ve explained his position.

It appears he used the bitcoin excuse as a ruse to deflect possible insider trading.

 

[ZeApelido]

It’s interesting to read the following in our todays newspaper: “The mRNA vaccins of Pfizer/BioNtech and Moderna are sometimes called the Tesla of the coronavaccins”.

My wife says I am the Tesla of men because I go too fast, act like I'm on autopilot and leave her behind.

 

[pz1975]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

As a long-time member here, I sincerely ask you to reconsider your position. Two people (TWO!) asked you to stop posting about Gary Black. They do not speak for the thousands of the rest of us. I personally don’t put a lot of stock into Gary’s postings, but it is still useful information to see. You leaving because two people asked you to stop posting about a topic doesn’t make any sense. The 99%+ of the rest of us value your posts and contributions.

 

[lascavarian]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

Well, I am not on Twitter and not on Facebook and not following anybody. I appreciate TMC as a single source of the best Tesla info. Post away tesla info please.

 

[phantasms]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

Oh hell no. Please stay!!!!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

He seems to have insider information from large hedge managers. Of course it seems like he just give bs justification but man he sure called that top like a laser guided missile while people here were laughing at him.

Meh. This board has just as much inside info, or at least it used to. These people that are randomly correct don't need to be followed around like they have some magic insight others don't. By definition, no analyst us any good at their job. If they were, they wouldn't be an analyst.

Even Cathie Wood, dare I say, mostly just happen to be right. Her justifications for 4k valuation from 18 months ago were completely off the mark IMO. Now she can tweet things and move the entire market. Why?

I understand why the wider population of lemmings follow Cramer and these other folk, but we're supposed to be above that!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

Saw this just now. NOOOO! More Curt, less Garry! All Curt all the time if possible.

 

[Lessmog]

For whom it may concern:
If you are a member here you can put anyone on Ignore if you dislike what they are posting.
Another option is to leave, yourself. Cancelling a valued member is not OK. Too much of that already.

 

[JoRoMo]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

Nono. No.

 

[Dutchie]

I just leave it to do your own interpretation on it.

All I can say is that this guy knows what he is talking about. I copied some of his investments and they have been very successful.

 

[Christine69420]

I'm not buying the, "inflation is fine" story. Have you watched your food prices? Food has climbed for the past year in Phoenix. Fast food prices are rising now. Housing has gone full retard. I sold my house in April 2019 (put some of the equity into TSLA) and have been chasing a rising price point for a year while trying to buy another one. I sold mine for $285k. A comparable house is now $400k.

My search started at $250k and up last year. I just put an offer up to $550k on a house that sold for $330,000 in late 2016. A house lists for one weekend and has dozens of offers, waiving appraisal clause, and using escalation clauses to compete.

If serious inflation is kicking in, my plan is to hold most of my tsla (selling a bit for down payment) and get in a house with a set mortgage at a low rate.

Much of it is California money moving to AZ but I'm seeing rising prices all around.

AFAIK the housing market is not included in the inflation numbers. Neither are share prices. Or the inflation would rocket most years.

 

[Singuy]

Meh. This board has just as much inside info, or at least it used to. These people that are randomly correct don't need to be followed around like they have some magic insight others don't. By definition, no analyst us any good at their job. If they were, they wouldn't be an analyst.

Even Cathie Wood, dare I say, mostly just happen to be right. Her justifications for 4k valuation from 18 months ago were completely off the mark IMO. Now she can tweet things and move the entire market. Why?

I understand why the wider population of lemmings follow Cramer and these other folk, but we're supposed to be above that!

You shouldn't discount people who hear whispers on the street and those who has close relationships with bigger whales. I'm not saying it's gospel, but it's definitely better than someone's uncle who claims there's a market crash coming or stock will go to the moon soon.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

AFAIK the housing market is not included in the inflation numbers. Neither are share prices. Or the inflation would rocket most years.

Yeah. Funny coincidence, that, leaving houses and equities out of inflation measurement.
Who ever decided that? Serious question - I always found it odd.

 

[Singuy]

I just leave it to do your own interpretation on it.

All I can say is that this guy knows what he is talking about. I copied some of his investments and they have been very successful.

Jeremy is the worst it comes to analyzing Tesla. I was frustrated with him 2 years ago and still frustrated at him today. He saw Tesla trading 2x sales and decided it was a good gamble. That's pretty much it.

At the end its not about who wins the ev war but how its won.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I just leave it to do your own interpretation on it.

All I can say is that this guy knows what he is talking about. I copied some of his investments and they have been very successful.

I watched up until the point where he said that Tesla valued between 700-900 billion has Autonomous robotaxi priced in and I knew this guy wasn't as informed as he comes off.

His analysis on Tesla's valuation at it's current valuation taking several years to prove out before it can be valued higher is empty when he's not putting forth information such as what he expects from growth and earnings going forward. If Tesla grows less than 50% sure then it's not going to be higher than 900 billion 1-2 years from now. If it grows 50% for the next two years then a 900 billion valuation is pretty damn fair if not cheap. If Tesla grows 75% for the next two years and then 50% after that for a couple years before going to 40% growth annually........then Tesla is very cheap at 900 billion valuation today.

So I don't get what metric he's using to make the assumptions he's making. Definitely not a sale to price ratio. And if he's taking P/E, well then he's wrong too. Tesla's EPS has been growing dramatically more than their revenues percentage wise as they increase production. Tesla's P/E will explode this year and next if/when they simply turn on FSD for wide release with subscription model (note I'm not talking about Robotaxi)

Really uninformed video and analysis all around. I don't follow this guy but my gut tells me he just got lucky with Tesla the past couple of years and doesn't really understand how to value a company. No investor or analyst is going to pass on fair or slightly overpriced valued stock today when they expect 50%+ CARG for the next 5 years. If Tesla does FSD wide release with the transition to video labeling that shows dramatic improvements......sorry but there's no way the investing community is going to say "Nah I think I'm going to wait 3 years for you to show me the peak of revenue from Robotaxi before I'll buy in"

Also note I'm not on the extreme side when it comes to my own price targets for the next couple of years. I expect 1200 by end of 2021. 1400-1500 by end of 2022. There are potential catalyst that I think can significantly increase those PT's. Mainly 80-100% growth this year and next and FSD wide release with subscription. I do agree in one aspect of the video in that anyone buying Tesla today that expects a repeat of 2020 in terms of gains is going to be disappointed.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tell that to, among others, Alexander Fleming, Percy Spencer, and Charles Goodyear as but a few examples who all got credit for solving a problem by accident

Sigh, the solution has to be repeatable. One right timing call, attributed to the wrong thing (Bitcoin purchase), does not make someone a market timing guru.

Overall, the guy called Gary Black has not been impressive. I agree he's not being upfront with the reasons he sold recently and that is one more reason I would not trust him with real money.

 

[goinfraftw]

I watched up until the point where he said that Tesla valued between 700-900 billion has Autonomous robotaxi priced in and I knew this guy wasn't as informed as he comes off.

His analysis on Tesla's valuation at it's current valuation taking several years to prove out before it can be valued higher is empty when he's not putting forth information such as what he expects from growth and earnings going forward. If Tesla grows less than 50% sure then it's not going to be higher than 900 billion 1-2 years from now. If it grows 50% for the next two years then a 900 billion valuation is pretty damn fair if not cheap. If Tesla grows 75% for the next two years and then 50% after that for a couple years before going to 40% growth annually........then Tesla is very cheap at 900 billion valuation today.

So I don't get what metric he's using to make the assumptions he's making. Definitely not a sale to price ratio. And if he's taking P/E, well then he's wrong too. Tesla's EPS has been growing dramatically more than their revenues percentage wise as they increase production. Tesla's P/E will explode this year and next if/when they simply turn on FSD for wide release with subscription model (note I'm not talking about Robotaxi)

Really uninformed video and analysis all around. I don't follow this guy but my gut tells me he just got lucky with Tesla the past couple of years and doesn't really understand how to value a company. No investor or analyst is going to pass on fair or slightly overpriced valued stock today when they expect 50%+ CARG for the next 5 years.

Been only 4 months since this news (feels like a year...):

Tesla (TSLA) announces up to $12 billion investment for electric car and battery factories in just 2 years - Electrek

2 Million cars / year (I'm assuming run-rate) by end of year 2022 is more than 50% CAGR. 2020 was near 500k. They'd need to near-double TWICE in 2021 and 2022 to reach that target.

 

[joh01652]

I get the message. Bye, bye TMC.

Please reconsider, Curt. Most of us here find you a valuable contributor.

Whatever one thinks of Gary Black, he is still a Wall Street insider with connections to big firms like Goldman Sachs, and is one of the more pro-Tesla voices out there. I certainly don't mind reading what he Tweets about. Whether you agree with his opinions or not is not the point. The point is the 24/7 media storm around Tesla does affect the SP and people's perception of the company, and it's good for us investors to keep abreast of what influencers say/write about Tesla, good, bad or otherwise.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Been only 4 months since this news (feels like a year...):

Tesla (TSLA) announces up to $12 billion investment for electric car and battery factories in just 2 years - Electrek

2 Million cars / year (I'm assuming run-rate) by end of year 2022 is more than 50% CAGR. 2020 was near 500k. They'd need to near-double TWICE in 2021 and 2022 to reach that target.

Sorry bit confused on what you're trying to point out here. Many of us here believe that Tesla is at least trying to do 100% growth this year and next year. The growth might actually be more like 75-80% growth.

If Tesla hits at least 75% growth this year and next, that guys "analysis" is very uninformed. But again....we wouldn't know that because he just makes vague comments about valuation without providing any actual numbers or proper analysis.

I've kinda said this before, but I'm all open ears when it comes to listening to contrary analysis from my own about Tesla's valuation and why it won't be valued more than like 800-900 billion over the next few years. But I want to see actual analysis....actual numbers and metrics. Because every care bear I've seen makes vague comments about how Tesla is so much more higher in valuation than any other auto makers.

 

[Knightshade]

Sigh, the solution has to be repeatable

You mean like when Garys estimates of what would happen during the S&P inclusion period turned out much more accurate than many folks here with much much higher numbers?


That's not to suggest he's always right or anything, but he certainly seems to be right at least as much, if not more, than any number of folks that post here- and a number of folks have rightly pointed out some useful inside-baseball wall street info he's provided... (IIRC RightSaidFred complemented him on the info regarding nightly ETF reporting of share inclusion data for example)


Moreover- If folks agree Curt is worth listening to (and I'm among those who say he most certainly is) and Curt thinks Gary is worth reposting- by the transitive property it suggests it might be worth listening to what Gary has to say too.



Unsurprisingly- this thread was actually quite pro-GB right up until he disliked the BTC move, then suddenly "WTF does THIS guy know and why does anyone listen to him?"

It's exactly the type of echo-chamberish stuff we ought avoid.


You can learn important things even from those you disagree with the conclusions of by listening to their reasoning.

Otherwise why are we even here? Just some rich guy circle jerk?