Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Is there a reason people are posting Gary Black updates? This dude seems to have nearly zero insight into TSLA or Tesla fundamentals.

TSLA went down because it's the #1 high flyer and rates shot to 1.6%. MMs were happy to push down a bit to nix some calls and that's about it. Same story as always, general tech macros and MM balancing.

Not a GB fan, but his timing (even if fueled by incorrect speculation) has been impressive.

 

[AudubonB]

"Risk off" is painful jargon for the process of manipulating a fund's portfolio such that as of the end of a reporting period (month-end report to one's investors) a manager can show that he has little in the portfolio that can blow up in an uncertain macro environment.

 

[winfield100]

Way OT, and since it's the weekend, and I really missed MLB last year...

@KevinR
"-....madness takes it's toll...."

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gary Black pinned tweet: https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1364522427158589445

View attachment 640520

Keep in mind this is Gary's assumption of 800k deliveries in 2021. He has openly stated if Tesla did get to 1 million deliveries, his PT would be 1,500. And that he's not factoring in any additional revenue/profits from FSD subscription model being released.

Gary got the temporary top right....I think all of us here just didn't like how he was perfectly fine turning into a care bear to create fear to get a lower re-entry price.

 

[Singuy]

"Risk off" is painful jargon for the process of manipulating a fund's portfolio such that as of the end of a reporting period (month-end report to one's investors) a manager can show that he has little in the portfolio that can blow up in an uncertain macro environment.

So when he said went risk off 10 mins ago, that means the fund reported 10 mins ago so high risk stocks like high pe stocks like tsla has a reduction in position already? (Sounds like he is calling a bottom?)

 

[MartinAustin]

Is there a reason people are posting Gary Black updates? This dude seems to have nearly zero insight into TSLA or Tesla fundamentals.

TSLA went down because it's the #1 high flyer and rates shot to 1.6%. MMs were happy to push down a bit to nix some calls and that's about it. Same story as always, general tech macros and MM balancing.

Whenever you hold Curt accountable for his actions (continually posting tweets here from a dude who is not on the forum) he just doubles down and posts another tweet.

PLEASE STOP POSTING GARY BLACK TWEETS.

If I wanted to see his tweets, I would follow him on twitter, which I don't.

This forum is the world's pre-eminent place for discussing TSLA. It is weird that the person behind the "Gary Black Twitter Account" does not post here, if he is a genuine TSLA investor.

 

[AudubonB]

So when he said went risk off 10 mins ago, that means the fund reported 10 mins ago so high risk stocks like high pe stocks like tsla has a reduction in position already? (Sounds like he is calling a bottom?)

His reference was to what "the market" did - others, not himself. And it was in anticipation not of immediacy (ie, reporting what one did ten minutes earlier), but of putting out the shareholder report in a week or so.

 

[Fred42]

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1365682660123832324

View attachment 640521

#1 - More than two days of production were lost. Elon said in the unconfirmed internal message that it would take a few days to ramp 3/Y production back up, and they likely ramped down beforehand as well. Also we don't know that the parts shortage was chips.

 

[OrthoSurg]

So this weeks
Hyundai Kona announced a massive battery recall
By deduction, we know that the Chevy bolt battery are unstable hazards
Fisher abandoned solide state batteries
Tesla Fremont shutdown was 2 days instead of 2 weeks
The $7000 incentives became available back for Tesla and they cancelled the SR and will make more profit from selling LR AWD.

all these excellent news. With stock price targets of $1200

next weeks the stock will rise to fame

 

[StealthP3D]

I actually think traditional economists and old school investors that put so much focus on traditional metrics of warnings signs an overheated market, inflation, economy etc......have no clue what's going on right now in the country. We're seeing many years(like 10 yrs) of change being compressed in to a 1-2 year timeframe.

Exactly. And while COVID has helped amplify many of these changes, it's not the instigator of any of them.

As you pointed out, the great migration that's happening with remote work combined with more and more people starting remote businesses is going to throw off tons of metrics and the most visible place it's going to do that is the real estate market in the suburbs/cheap states verses citys/expensive states.

The original trend to the suburbs was instigated by cheap gas and plentiful cars in the 1950s. The energy crisis and projections that fuel would become more expensive and increasingly scarce reversed the trend in recent decades and cities became increasingly trendy.

In recent years, the trend has reversed back to the suburbs due to increasing urban tensions caused by increasing income/wealth disparity and the resulting political tensions. The rise of the Internet and work from anywhere accelerated this trend. More recent accelerants are the growing understanding that electric transport will make the suburbs more appealing and, of course, COVID.

The biggest change underlying all of this is the fundemental transition from the industrial age to the technological age. And that's the biggest reason why economists are getting the story wrong. The effects of wages are becoming increasingly uncoupled from growth with increasing automation and scale.

 

[bkp_duke]

The $7000 incentives became available back for Tesla and they cancelled the SR and will make more profit from selling LR AWD.

While I really hope this turns out to pass the legislature, unless I missed some important news, this is just a bill in committee (both House and Senate), and has not even made it to the floor for a vote.

 

[Singuy]

#1 - More than two days of production were lost. Elon said in the unconfirmed internal message that it would take a few days to ramp 3/Y production back up, and they likely ramped down beforehand as well. Also we don't know that the parts shortage was chips.

Unless the upgrades to the line help speed up production over the long run or improve quality. So maybe a wash.

 

[Singuy]

So this weeks
Hyundai Kona announced a massive battery recall
By deduction, we know that the Chevy bolt battery are unstable hazards
Fisher abandoned solide state batteries
Tesla Fremont shutdown was 2 days instead of 2 weeks
The $7000 incentives became available back for Tesla and they cancelled the SR and will make more profit from selling LR AWD.

all these excellent news. With stock price targets of $1200

next weeks the stock will rise to fame

Wait how is the incentive back?

 

[StealthP3D]

He seems to have insider information from large hedge managers. Of course it seems like he just give bs justification but man he sure called that top like a laser guided missile while people here were laughing at him.

He didn't call the top like a laser-guided missile - he said he was selling because Tesla bought Bitcoin.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Unless the upgrades to the line help speed up production over the long run or improve quality. So maybe a wash.

Also, was pointed out that the upgrades/fixes were to machinery that has long been neglected. So could see some operational margin improvement too. Depending the scope of upgrades/fixes of course

 

[Singuy]

He didn't call the top like a laser-guided missile - he said he was selling because Tesla bought Bitcoin.

Consider he bought back while Tesla still has btc tells me he give out BS reasons to make people think he doesn't have connections. But 1.5 years of holding and he literally picked the top..like that specific day before a constant decline breaking all support levels is not a coincidence.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Exactly. And while COVID has helped amplify many of these changes, it's not the instigator of any of them.


The biggest change underlying all of this is the fundemental transition from the industrial age to the technological age. And that's the biggest reason why economists are getting the story wrong. The effects of wages are becoming increasingly uncoupled from growth with increasing automation and scale.

Couldn't agree more with this part. I continually see old school traders and economists say Tech is a bubble right now.....I'm like "Um you realize tech has become the backbone for the entire economy in the matter of a year, right?" Tech provides growth, stability, and expansion in terms of jobs, wages, variety, etc....and it's all backed by Tech having absolutely amazing finances and earnings this year which in just this past earnings season, was shown to be very sustainable.

 

[StealthP3D]

Consider he bought back while Tesla still has btc tells me he give out BS reasons to make people think he doesn't have connections. But 1.5 years of holding and he literally picked the top..like that specific day before a constant decline breaking all support levels is not a coincidence.

I agree that he hit the top, I disagree that he "called" the top. Because you have to show your work.

When you arrive at the right answer through an incorrect method, you never get credit for solving the problem.

 

[Knightshade]

So this weeks
Hyundai Kona announced a massive battery recall
By deduction, we know that the Chevy bolt battery are unstable hazards

That's not true if you believe the actual issue is not the battery, but Hyundais poor BMS- since Chevy might've actually followed LGs BMS specs.

Fisher abandoned solide state batteries

I think "Fisker admits they never had SSBs" is probably more accurate... really the bigger takeaway from that interview was 'Fisker abandons any premise of being a car company- now reduced to an art department with customer service reps- everything else will be outsourced'

Tesla Fremont shutdown was 2 days instead of 2 weeks

Remains pretty hazy how much of a ramp down/up there was... but sounds like with additional shifting and maybe getting some maintenance in during it probably won't matter overall to production plans.

The $7000 incentives became available back for Tesla

No, they have not.

There is a house bill proposing that.

There's an entirely different senate bill instead proposing a completely different (and far more generous) EV tax credit.

Neither is available because they're both still introduced by not having gone anywhere yet.

and they cancelled the SR and will make more profit from selling LR AWD.

SR still available off- menu according to Elon.

Whole thing is pretty weird though... say you're not making it, then announce it's for sale anyway, then weeks later cut the price, then almost immediately take it off the menu.

 

[Singuy]

I agree that he hit the top, I disagree that he "called" the top. Because you have to show your work.

When you arrive at the right answer through an incorrect method, you never get credit for solving the problem.

Probably will end up in trouble if he was transparent about the real reason why he sold. There's no way to call anything the top or bottom in the market unless you know something other people don't. He most likely got the warning about hedge fund risking off and sold immediately.