Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Thats another reason why I side with cathie on the 'start a ridesharing network without fsd right now' debate. Get people to install 'TeslaRide' on their phone now. Sometime next year, or 2024, the next car that shows up will have no driver, but build the network now.

You make a very good point about the benefits of being first to market and establishing customer relationships.

However, there is also a benefit to establishing and maintaining a consistent customer experience. Starting with human drivers and transitioning to pure autonomous taxi has some negative impact on the brand that has to be weighed against the early mover advantage because it pits Tesla against well-established players right from the beginning where they have no real advantage that can compare to the existing tentacles in the industry of Uber and Lyft.

I'm not sure where I stand on this yet but the value of purity of brand and consistent customer experience shouldn't be overlooked. Because getting in an empty robo-taxi is a completely different experience vs one with a driver there when you enter.

 

[asburgers]

If FSD by subscription is coming in Q2, then FSD must not be that far away?

 

[AimStellar]

Some of them are real trades reported from dark pools or "elsewhere", but they usually appear AH and at a reasonable price (i.e. the VWAP for the day or open/close price), not 10%+ higher. Sometimes they disappear shortly after showing up, so maybe a fat-finger entry error.

I think this one is just a glitch on TDA, as I very much doubt there was a trade at 872 yesterday, and it doesn't show up anywhere else.

Hopefully we get to that level again before too long, but TSLA is still underperforming the market as it has been of late (SPY is barely green, and TSLA down 1.3%).

FWIW, it shows on the one year chart using E*TRADE as well.

 

[Singuy]

I am defensive as well. Looking for less risky places to park the majority of funds - open to suggestions if anyone has any. If not, I am moving somewhere warmer and opening up a dive bar or a hipster coffee shop. Maybe both at the same place.

My guess is the defense mode people are in is due to unprecedented retail participation. The famous rule of thumb is to get out when the shoe shiner is giving out stock tips. Gme amplified this which kind of made a mockery out of the market and valuation. I think that's the initial catalyst for current bearish sentiment.

 

[StealthP3D]

If not, I am moving somewhere warmer and opening up a dive bar or a hipster coffee shop. Maybe both at the same place.

If that's your idea of de-risking then I think I will stick with my current "high-risk", long-term investments in stocks and pass on the very low-risk business of opening small businesses.

 

[Unpilot]

If that's your idea of de-risking then I think I will stick with my current "high-risk", long-term investments in stocks and pass on the very low-risk business of opening small businesses.

I don't know dive bar and hipster coffee shop both sound pretty good to me.
Dive bar more so

 

[asburgers]

If that's your idea of de-risking then I think I will stick with my current "high-risk", long-term investments in stocks and pass on the very low-risk business of opening small businesses.

Don't you roll your purplely emoji eyes at me, middle-aged man!

 

[StealthP3D]

My guess is the defense mode people are in is due to unprecedented retail participation. The famous rule of thumb is to get out when the shoe shiner is giving out stock tips. Gme amplified this which kind of made a mockery out of the market and valuation. I think that's the initial catalyst for current bearish sentiment.

I think that's true, unfortunately it doesn't answer the question of where to park all that money such that it can make a decent return and protect it from the potential ravages of inflation.

 

[asburgers]

I don't know dive bar and hipster coffee shop both sound pretty good to me.
Dive bar more so

Free beer-cofefe-poutine for you.

In all seriousness, I'm mostly cash at the moment until I figure out what to do. A chunk will go into real estate. Some ARKs and maybe that Gerber Kawasaki bike shop...I don't know.

 

[dl003]

My guess is the defense mode people are in is due to unprecedented retail participation. The famous rule of thumb is to get out when the shoe shiner is giving out stock tips. Gme amplified this which kind of made a mockery out of the market and valuation. I think that's the initial catalyst for current bearish sentiment.

A counter argument is the shoe shiner analogy came out in an era where stock trading and investment were exclusively Wall Street affairs. Old men in suits were the experts. The very existence of this forum is proof that era has ended a long time ago. However, I agree that market is in a defensive mode. SP 500 P:E is high and bond yield is still trading in a range much too high to give it any comfort. Best time to be investing imo.

 

[Singuy]

I think that's true, unfortunately it doesn't answer the question of where to park all that money such that it can make a decent return and protect it from the potential ravages of inflation.

That's why Financials are going up in anticipation for inflation. Also they were pretty beaten up due to zero interest rates.

But yeah I wouldn't know where to park my money. Just adding to some reits that have yet to recover from covid but usually I'm just sitting tight.

 

[Singuy]

A counter argument is the shoe shiner analogy came out in an era where stock trading and investment were exclusively Wall Street affairs. Old men in suits were the experts. The very existence of this forum is proof that era has ended a long time ago. However, I agree that market is in a defensive mode. SP 500 P:E is high and bond yield is still trading in a range much too high to give it any comfort. Best time to be investing imo.

Correct, my argument is that due to technology and information, stock crashes and recoveries are faster than ever due to the ease of access. I don't think Covid recovery time was a fluke and will be reproducible going forward.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well we're beating the Nasdaq multiple right now so overall not a terrible day, especially if the Nasdaq can recover some.

That's probably been the most painful part of the past month and half. On positive macro days, TSLA would only perform 1.5-2X the macros or just barely be positive on the day at all. On down macro down, TSLA would be down 3-4X.

It'll be a pretty bullish sign when that trend noticeably changes

 

[22522]

I am wondering:

1) Cost of Giga Berlin is figured in. Benefit is partially accounted for but not fully recognized.
2) Cost of Giga Austin is figured in. Benefit is partially accounted for but not fully recognized.
3) Cost of FSD is figured in. Benefit is partially accounted for but not fully recognized.

When people more fully recognize the benefits of these 3 things in rapid succession, the stock price will go up.

It seems like a 4 for 1 split is needed to keep the price under $1000.

Has anyone heard about this logically needed split in financial statement documents or wherever things like this appear?

 

[asburgers]

That's why Financials are going up in anticipation for inflation. Also they were pretty beaten up due to zero interest rates.

But yeah I wouldn't know where to park my money. Just adding to some reits that have yet to recover from covid but usually I'm just sitting tight.

I am not entirely convinced that there will be high inflation without full employment and with government commitment to control inflation. Still researching this.

 

[dl003]

When inflation goes up, recurring expenses go up
Subscriptions are recurring expenses
FSD is going by subscription
TSLA is the only one offering FSD
--> TSLA is an inflation hedge.

 

[asburgers]

When inflation goes up, recurring expenses go up
Subscriptions are recurring expenses
FSD is going by subscription
TSLA is the only one offering FSD
--> TSLA is an inflation hedge.

It roasts my brain that all arguments circulate back to buy moar TSLA. The counterpoint is that with a hipster coffee shop, I can finally pay some min wage kids to hang out and laugh at my dad jokes - TSLA does not offer that.

 

[Tslynk67]

Macros soaring, Hoping for 750+ today!

good luck all

Disappointment, is the gap between expectation and reality

 

[asburgers]

Disappointment, is the gap between expectation and reality

Big Time called for a shut out in the first half of the first period. He jinxed it. I also believe in voodoo...donuts.

 

[asburgers]

India woos Tesla with offer of cheaper production costs than China.
Exclusive: India woos Tesla with offer of cheaper production costs than China

"“The government will make sure the production cost for Tesla will be the lowest when compared with the world, even China, when they start manufacturing their cars in India. We will assure that,” he said." - Transport Minister Gadkari