Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[asburgers]

My reactions as today's trading progressed:

I forced myself to take a nap today due to anxiety. When I woke up and saw the price, I wanted to shave my eyebrows.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah... I didn't say it was rational or that I thought that. Just that the market is setting up to react like that and really hit the stock with the FUD. Less production/deliveries than Q4! 170k paces under 700k for the year! Imagine when the chip shortage hits Tesla, under 600k for the year! No demand!

Just watch if Tesla is under 170k, they are going to get massacred. Doesn't matter to my longer-term perspective, but a short term hammering of the stock would surely happen.

The stock has already taken a 30% hit with estimates moving down to about 162k for Q1.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1366865073394708481?s=19

Hopefully Tesla has a good safety stock

I don’t understand what you’re saying.

 

[henchman24]

The stock has already taken a 30% hit with estimates moving down to about 162k for Q1.

Every quarter, those estimates start creeping back up in the last 10 days to start matching the Twitter estimates (my tinfoil hat is a number key in to Troy's numbers). They've only gone down by about 4k. The big Twitter numbers are all over 170k, some pushing up to 177k. We will see that number creep up during the last half of March.

The 30% is about far more than delivery estimates. Much more headwind than a 10k difference there.

 

[RobStark]

It's so funny that the only companies on the planet not promising solid state batteries are those that actually make batteries.

Because no one would sign long term contracts for standard lithium ion battery cells?

My guess is Rivian isn't getting into the compete with Quantum Scape/LG Energy Solutions business but putting a lab together to monitor the progress of everyone else in the space.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 20 minutes ago: Want To Ask Cathie Wood A Question? Here's Your Opportunity

Excerpts:

The founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management will join Benzinga on Wednesday afternoon for an exclusive interview on the "Raz Report" beginning at 2 p.m. ET...

She's also been a longtime bull on Tesla Inc TSLA 4.45% and she proved doubters wrong on her bullish bet from February 2018, calling for Tesla shares to hit $4,000. The stock eclipsed that level, on a split-adjusted basis, earlier this year.

 

[Big Time]

The Oppenheimer upgrade was nice.....

 

[Knightshade]

is the consensus that the reason v11 isn't out yet is that its FSD.

There's a lot of talk about when FSD will come out, with some suggesting late this year. But if v11 is held up on FSD wouldn't that mean its imminent. If it wasn't connected and FSD was this fall they could just put it in v12. Being 3 months late on the big annual update feels like it means any day now itll drop.

Remember Smart Summon?

Elon said Nov 1 2018 it'd be out in about 6 weeks.

He kept giving various versions of "ready soon!" over and over in the months after that.... most famously when he said it almost doesn't suck now.

It actually came out near end of September. 2019.

So it's entirely possible internally they keep thinking it's NEARLY ready, so let's just wait a bit on V11... but they keep finding new issues over and over.

As Elon keeps telling us, it's a hard problem.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Oppenheimer upgrade was nice.....

That was a reprint of a January 20th upgrade.

 

[La_crolle]

I don’t understand what you’re saying.

Sorry wrong link. Austin foundry could be closed until mid April:

Samsung’s U.S. Plant Shutdown Feared to Continue until Mid-April

 

[Curt Renz]

Bull Signal Says TSLA Could Stage a Rebound

Take it with a grain of salt

Especially the assertion of an $872 high yesterday. That's an error found on daily charts. The minute-to-minute charts show that the actual high was only $718.

 

[Singuy]

Remember Smart Summon?

Elon said Nov 1 2018 it'd be out in about 6 weeks.

He kept giving various versions of "ready soon!" over and over in the months after that.... most famously when he said it almost doesn't suck now.

It actually came out near end of September. 2019.

So it's entirely possible internally they keep thinking it's NEARLY ready, so let's just wait a bit on V11... but they keep finding new issues over and over.

As Elon keeps telling us, it's a hard problem.

I'm a little bit more optimistic about FSD beta.

Summon was on an old geometry based architecture which was more of a brute force method producing mostly garbage as ground truth. If you compare summon vs FSD beta where the driver navigates through a parking lot, it's night and day difference. This self supervised training method +BEV net is really beginning to accelerate at a pace I believe that will surprise people, especially those that use older architectures like Summon/EAP to judge progress.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Mar 02, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Ebbs with the Tide (x2.65)"

Pre-Market:

Consolidated Last Sale: $714.00 -4.43 (-0.62%)
Pre-Market Volume: 596,874
Pre-Market High: $723.35
Pre-Market Low: $698.02​

Main Session:

Traded: $16,394,254,868.81 ($16.39B)
Volume: 23,333,388
VWAP: $702.61

Close: $686.44 / VWAP: 97.70%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $730 (-$10 from Mon)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.653383% (Feb 26)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $658.882B / $737.547B = 89.33%
NB: Yahoo has updated Mkt Cap re 10-K shares (Feb 10, 2021)

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including 10-K (Feb 01) shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $742.75B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $563.86B

Mkt Cap for 10th tranche ($550B) likely achieved Tue, Feb 23, 2021
Mkt Cap for 9th tranche ($500B) likely achieved Wed, Feb 03, 2021
Mkt Cap for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 42.9% (42nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 39.8% (45th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 1.07% of Short Volume (50th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Lycanthrope "Disappointment is the gap between expectation and reality"

Comment: "Shortzes are playing the long game (r u?)"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Sorry wrong link. Austin foundry could be closed until mid April:

Samsung’s U.S. Plant Shutdown Feared to Continue until Mid-April

A 2.5 month shut down does not make any sense considering what actually happened. I don’t buy it.

 

[buttershrimp]

Sorry wrong link. Austin foundry could be closed until mid April:

Samsung’s U.S. Plant Shutdown Feared to Continue until Mid-April

And at least now Texans don't have to wear masks, so yeah.... there is that.

 

[MC3OZ]

Pretty sure the factory for the "China designed car" is already being built on existing land. I agree with this guys comments that were posted to the article.
View attachment 641370

This is implying they are purchasing the new watermelon farm to the east(?), that the are currently renting from a farmer.

It did occur to me that was a great fit for logistics, there is an area in the far east on a main road, well away from most of the factory.

I was hoping they might buy land nearby on the coast, driving cars start out of the factory gate and on to ships appeals to me. You need to see a YouTube video or a satellite image, but the sea seems to be very close to the factory and there was what looked like vacant land on the coast close by. Maybe that is the next purchase.

 

[Singuy]

A 2.5 month shut down does not make any sense considering what actually happened. I don’t buy it.

When you are given lemons, I guess it's time to make lemonade. Nothing wrong with fitting HW 2.5 made from TSMC into cars without FSD purchases.

 

[StealthP3D]

Rivian planning to manufacture solid-state batteries - Electrek
Recruitment roles suggest they are fairly advanced.

Right before CEO RJ Scaringe takes Rivian public? I assume by "advanced" you mean in advanced stages of preparing for a successful IPO?

I can hear the conversation now:

RJ: Do you think we priced ourselves too high at $50 billions?

Investment banker: Maybe you should post some job listings for some leading edge technologies, what's all the rage these days, isn't it solid state batteries?

RJ: But we have our hands full, we have no plans to make our own batteries.

Banker: That doesn't matter. You don't want your IPO to be a flop, do you?

RJ: Well, no but...

Banker: Good, I knew you were a reasonable man! Post the job listings next week. That should give you plenty time to generate some good buzz. So how about that private strip club you were telling me about?

 

[Curt Renz]

Sorry wrong link. Austin foundry could be closed until mid April:

Samsung’s U.S. Plant Shutdown Feared to Continue until Mid-April

A 2.5 month shut down does not make any sense considering what actually happened. I don’t buy it.

Tesla aims for vertical integration. That should include the production of its own computer chips.

 

[kengchang]

This is implying they are purchasing the new watermelon farm to the east(?), that the are currently renting from a farmer.

It did occur to me that was a great fit for logistics, there is an area in the far east on a main road, well away from most of the factory.

I was hoping they might buy land nearby on the coast, driving cars start out of the factory gate and on to ships appeals to me. You need to see a YouTube video or a satellite image, but the sea seems to be very close to the factory and there was what looked like vacant land on the coast close by. Maybe that is the next purchase.

Private entity can only lease land from the government. No one owns land in China except the government.