Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

While a further drop would hardly surprise any of us, that is a far cry from the ‘surely’ in your original post. Though true too, I feel your fears are overblown just like those of the "sky is falling" posts late last fall.

One of the things I’ve noticed, since I have been paying attention for some time, is that there is a correlation between FUD and SP dips. It’s just not causal in the way you say.

To the extent there is a causal connection, it’s the other way: The shorts position themselves and in so doing "drop the stock," then or in tandem trot out the usual suspects to spew FUD.

The goal of course is to get folks all mopey and to nudge them to sell their shares, or at least wait till, say, April to buy more.

Not that I take issue with everything you say: Holding for 5+ years is an excellent plan!

Getting awfully accusatory there with that April drop nonsense... we can have posts here without that.

we just disagree with how disappointing production/delivery numbers would impact the stock. I hope I’m wrong and actually I hope they deliver 180+K and the stock soars. My statement isn’t unfounded with how the market is reacting and how the non casual connection exists. (I agree it isn’t casual)

 

[wipster]

I personally have a sinking feeling on mediocre Q1 production numbers. They will still be great when you look back, but I'm expecting under 170k and the market to pile on FUD about missing 50% growth.

Nah, don't think so... we've got China this year!

 

[Singuy]

Getting awfully accusatory there with that April drop nonsense... we can have posts here without that.

we just disagree with how disappointing production/delivery numbers would impact the stock. I hope I’m wrong and actually I hope they deliver 180+K and the stock soars. My statement isn’t unfounded with how the market is reacting and how the non casual connection exists. (I agree it isn’t casual)

There are so many moving parts that it's really hard to predict what will cause the stock price to surge or drop. The valuation has so much riding on future progress that short term misses may not be all that important.

I mean stock may moon if

1. Margin surprise even with low s/x mix
2. Berlin production imminent
3. Solar roof/energy storage margin surprise + massive qoq increase in revenue

Stock may drop if

180k+ deliveries but margins dropped dramatically


Margins mean more to Tesla than any other number. Deliveries really matters very little when it comes to sp performance. Toyota makes a boat load of deliveries but no one cares.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Getting awfully accusatory there with that April drop nonsense... we can have posts here without that.

we just disagree with how disappointing production/delivery numbers would impact the stock. I hope I’m wrong and actually I hope they deliver 180+K and the stock soars. My statement isn’t unfounded with how the market is reacting and how the non casual connection exists. (I agree it isn’t casual)

The part that feels pretty disingenuous is you literally said that if Tesla delivers under 170k then it's a sell the news event.....even at a share price that's been hammered 30%.

Your logic for disappointment of missing out on 50% growth has no basis. If Tesla delivers 160k for Q1, that's 80% growth year over year. They'll likely do 100% growth year over year in Q2. Tesla would be ON TRACK for 900k+ deliveries in 2021 and they openly said that production/deliveries will follow the same 2nd half of the year trend that 2020 took. There would be nothing negative about 160k deliveries especially when deliveries of S/X for Q1 have already been factored in by now as not happening.

If Tesla delivers something like 140k or less.....then sure feel free to hit your panic button/sky is falling and expect a drop from the mid 600 levels. But it feels like fear mongering by saying anything under 170k would be big disappointment for the market. That's just ridiculous and honestly makes you sound the person running around screaming the sky is falling.

 

[henchman24]

The part that feels pretty disingenuous is you literally said that if Tesla delivers under 170k then it's a sell the news event.....even at a share price that's been hammered 30%.

Your logic for disappointment of missing out on 50% growth has no basis. If Tesla delivers 160k for Q1, that's 80% growth year over year. They'll likely do 100% growth year over year in Q2. Tesla would be ON TRACK for 900k+ deliveries in 2021 and they openly said that production/deliveries will follow the same 2nd half of the year trend that 2020 took. There would be nothing negative about 160k deliveries especially when deliveries of S/X for Q1 have already been factored in by now as not happening.

If Tesla delivers something like 140k or less.....then sure feel free to hit your panic button/sky is falling and expect a drop from the mid 600 levels. But it feels like fear mongering by saying anything under 170k would be big disappointment for the market. That's just ridiculous and honestly makes you sound the person running around screaming the sky is falling.

And it very well could be. Under 170k sets the stage for lots of FUD.

There is a sliding scale, whether we like it or not on the growth. Shanghai is up and running with both the 3 and Y. Failing to significantly outpace 2020 Q1 that had Covid issues and not as much capacity gives room for that FUD to grow.

I’m kinda surprised at the lack of ability to see TSLAQ logic here. They will spread FUD at anything even if it isn’t reasonable. Less that 170k gives them the ability to say Tesla decreased quarter over quarter... and are pacing less than the 50% growth from 2020. IE 170 x 4 is 680... 680 < 750. 750 being 50% growth. We all know it is it nonsense, but they latch onto nonsense with a vengeance. I hope you we don’t see it, but the attacks will be strong if Tesla misses. As we saw for years. Strong attack can keep a stock down for a long time.

This is just a short term thing and something for a narrative to latch onto.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And it very well could be. Under 170k sets the stage for lots of FUD.

There is a sliding scale, whether we like it or not on the growth. Shanghai is up and running with both the 3 and Y. Failing to significantly outpace 2020 Q1 that had Covid issues and not as much capacity gives room for that FUD to grow.

Lol ok I'm done. This is just trolling now. You say things that have no basis of reality. I'm done. I think we found our new carebear

 

[asburgers]

Elon tweet. FSD probably in Q2!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366951771810062336?s=19

Festooned I say!

 

[Knightshade]

Elon tweet. FSD probably in Q2!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366951771810062336?s=19

Festooned I say!

I'd refer you back to Elons own statement from the 60 minutes interview regarding how much weight you should give any timeline he ever provides for a thing he hasn't ever actually done before.

He tells me when another factory will be making cars, I'm deeply inclined to believe him, and assume it'll be even better than the last one.

he tells me when he "thinks" FSD will be done... not so much.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon tweet. FSD probably in Q2!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366951771810062336?s=19

Festooned I say!

He didn't specify Q2 of which year...

 

[asburgers]

Oh you negative nancies.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=19

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Elon tweet. FSD probably in Q2!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366951771810062336?s=19

Festooned I say!

I don't really see the point of starting the subscription service until FSD is widely released, which is why I've felt the two will release hand in hand. Kinda feels like there's not going to be much demand for the subscription model until people can actually use FSD

 

[dl003]

And it very well could be. Under 170k sets the stage for lots of FUD.

There is a sliding scale, whether we like it or not on the growth. Shanghai is up and running with both the 3 and Y. Failing to significantly outpace 2020 Q1 that had Covid issues and not as much capacity gives room for that FUD to grow.

I’m kinda surprised at the lack of ability to see TSLAQ logic here. They will spread FUD at anything even if it isn’t reasonable. Less that 170k gives them the ability to say Tesla decreased quarter over quarter... and are pacing less than the 50% growth from 2020. IE 170 x 4 is 680... 680 < 750. 750 being 50% growth. We all know it is it nonsense, but they latch onto nonsense with a vengeance. I hope you we don’t see it, but the attacks will be strong if Tesla misses. As we saw for years. Strong attack can keep a stock down for a long time.

This is just a short term thing and something for a narrative to latch onto.

ok. I’ll bite. Traditionally, Q1 has always been the weakest Q with no exceptions.
Traditionally, Q1 has always underperformed Q4 with no exceptions. This is industry wise so WS is already conditioned for it.
Traditionally TSLA has always used Q1 to retool/upgrade production lines so this is not something new.
Traditionally TSLA has always restocked inventory in Q1. However, if productions are interrupted, they can simly not restock. What more, they can use existing inventory as a buffer. S&X production was never that material anyway and I bet existing inventory can satisfy most of Q1 demand.
The mere fact that Q1 performance might be lower than Q4 is not indicative of the whole year performance. Never has been.
Shorts will always find new FUDs. We can only hope more rational minds can see through them. After all, shorts are the ones who lost $30b+ so the investment community as a whole must have had some sanity left in it.
Personally, if TSLA is not affected by chip shortage, I dont see Q1 being materially lower than Q4.

 

[asburgers]

I don't really see the point of starting the subscription service until FSD is widely released, which is why I've felt the two will release hand in hand. Kinda feels like there's not going to be much demand for the subscription model until people can actually use FSD

Exactly

 

[Robertj]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=21

More updates from musk about next fsd release


And more

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366980026147610624?s=21

Yes, beta will be offered much more widely when version 9 is done, hopefully next month

 

[EVWatcher]

Id really like to know what he means by "it is not widely known". Is there some other thing they are solving that is not widely talked about. Or is he just saying that teslas FSD program is not known outside of the Tesla enthusiasts?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=20

 

[JustMe]

Id really like to know what he means by "it is not widely known". Is there some other thing they are solving that is not widely talked about. Or is he just saying that teslas FSD program is not known outside of the Tesla enthusiasts?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=20View attachment 641531

My read is that Tesla’s FSD solution is much more general than driving a car, in terms of AI development. Imagine the range of potential applications.

n.b. I, for one, *welcome* our new robot overlords

 

[StealthP3D]

Id really like to know what he means by "it is not widely known". Is there some other thing they are solving that is not widely talked about. Or is he just saying that teslas FSD program is not known outside of the Tesla enthusiasts?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=20View attachment 641531

Both of those things as confirmed in this interview that was posted here:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=19

 

[EVWatcher]

Both of those things as confirmed in this interview that was posted here:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=19

I feel like you are seeing something that I am not seeing

 

[Singuy]

Id really like to know what he means by "it is not widely known". Is there some other thing they are solving that is not widely talked about. Or is he just saying that teslas FSD program is not known outside of the Tesla enthusiasts?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1366968841209745410?s=20View attachment 641531

I believe Elon is referring to the holy grail of training AI which is self-supervised. This can eventually open the door to other applications like FSD drones, FSD airplanes, or FSD androids. Anything that can be automated will be automated with less programing. May even help leverage that 100x in manufacturing efficiency he's talking about.

The actual AI "problem" is not AI unable to solve x, y, or z. The problem has always been what is the right way to train AI. Tesla may have solved this problem, and it's not widely known.

 

[Cherry Wine]

And it very well could be. Under 170k sets the stage for lots of FUD.

There is a sliding scale, whether we like it or not on the growth. Shanghai is up and running with both the 3 and Y. Failing to significantly outpace 2020 Q1 that had Covid issues and not as much capacity gives room for that FUD to grow.

I’m kinda surprised at the lack of ability to see TSLAQ logic here. They will spread FUD at anything even if it isn’t reasonable. Less that 170k gives them the ability to say Tesla decreased quarter over quarter... and are pacing less than the 50% growth from 2020. IE 170 x 4 is 680... 680 < 750. 750 being 50% growth. We all know it is it nonsense, but they latch onto nonsense with a vengeance. I hope you we don’t see it, but the attacks will be strong if Tesla misses. As we saw for years. Strong attack can keep a stock down for a long time.

This is just a short term thing and something for a narrative to latch onto.

TSLAQ spouts all the time and is now largely ignored (based on stock price action) - they’ve cried wolf too many times. It’s hard for me to see how that changes on a P&D report that’s in line with analyst estimates of 163k. “Less than 170k gives them ammunition for FUD”? They make FUD out of literally anything.

I don’t waste my time or energy worrying about what TSLAQ is going to do, and I recommend that you don’t either. If you’re going to worry, might as well worry about something that a reasonable investor or analyst would find concerning.