Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[asburgers]

This IBKR article is interesting showing how many are happy to see ARK fail.

Ark of Schadenfreude - Traders' Insight

A key takeaway for readers is that this motif is not unique amidst bull markets. Those of us who have been involved in investing for a long time remember other examples of funds that similarly captured the public’s imagination. They could seemingly do no wrong, posting stellar performance and making stars out of their managers before ultimately flaming out. The example from the late ‘90’s bull market was the Janus 20 Fund, which was known for having a significant number of winners amidst its limited set of holdings. At some point the winning became self-fulfilling. As the fund attracted more money and more attention, other investors would follow them. That created a positive feedback loop which worked spectacularly until the market peaked. At that point, the fund’s concentration became a curse, with traders gaming the outflows in the manner described above. During that fund’s run, I learned about the Manhattan Fund’s experience in the 1960’s. It was started by Gerry Tsai, a star Fidelity fund manager in 1965, grew spectacularly through 1968, when Mr. Tsai sold his interest in the fund complex, only to collapse by 90% in the following year.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

With respect, I know they aren’t ready to toss the 18650 but I think it’s clear they soon will use new batteries battery in all new model s and x at end of year. I agree they aren’t going to hold up sales until then, but I sure expect folks with model s and looking to upgrade to wait for the larger bigger battery. So I am saying 18650 meet their demise at end of 2021 or early 2022. And I think the model s sales will spike at that time and not a large amount before that

Absolutely! I’m waiting to upgrade when 2170 or 4680 batteries are available in the S Plaid and the SP exceeds $1000, hopefully concurrently in 2022.

Samsung considering four sites in U.S. for $17 billion chip plant: documents | reuters (2:02am EST)

"Samsung Electronics Co Ltd is considering two sites in Arizona and another site in New York in addition to Austin, Texas, for a new $17 billion chip plant, according to documents filed with Texas state officials."​

It's sillly to believe Tesla needs vertical integration at the Fab level to have a secure supply of FSD chips. Neither bad luck nor poor wx respect the name on the outside of the building.

Cheers!

Elon needs to get on the horn and offer Samsung solar and megapaks in exchange for some next generation FSD chips. Edit: I had another thought about this whole redundancy/resiliency issue. Tesla should develop and sell complete systems for solar-powered, MegaPak-powered closed-loop chilled and purified water cooling using the octovalve technology. Tesla’s own industrial systems surely use chilled and purified water, so making the systems resilient to loss of power and water would be a decent idea. Selling services to other industrial clients would likely sell more solar & MegaPaks.

Elon said it would be years before the S&X stopped using 18650s...

I hope it won’t take that long, but 2023 is two years, so that would meet the definition. Mostly, I just want my next EV to charge at 250KW.

 

[asburgers]

This is along the lines of what I had in mind, earlier, in the sense that the price movements of the Tesla stock has very little to do with the company but lots to do with the macro-environment.

When Up is Down - Traders' Insight

It can be a very a treacherous environment when good numbers are bad and bad numbers are also bad.

At least we found something that bond and stock investors can agree on. The problem we have now is that with stock traders keying off rising bond yields (lower bond prices), it creates a very tricky environment for equities. If bad economic news is bad for stocks, that’s one thing. That’s normal. Yet if good economic news is bad for stocks because the news is bad for bonds, that’s the market focusing on a second-order effect rather than a direct effect. That leaves investors with a very narrow path to success. This is not a permanently dire situation, since stock traders tend to change their focus frequently, but it may remain be an untenable situation until or unless that focus shifts.

 

[MP3Mike]

Absolutely! I’m waiting to upgrade when 2170 or 4680 batteries are available in the S Plaid and the SP exceeds $1000, hopefully concurrently in 2022.

Elon said it would be years before the S&X stopped using 18650s...

 

[Curt Renz]

10yr rates spiking, 2yr and shorter continue their march toward zero. 10yr will overflow to shorter bonds at some point and all this will reverse. Too much cash, by a lot.

How to play this? Don't ask me!

It's the macro-market that is a drag today on growth stocks like TSLA. Bond traders are assuming a ramp up in inflation. More likely, technological innovation will continue to keep inflation away. Regarding the effect of rising rates on growth stocks, that should already have been factored into net present value calculations. Once the bond Chicken Littles return to their coops, cooler heads should prevail.

 

[capster]

Maybe that’ll work well for you. In general, I’d say:

Kid others if you must, kid yourself if you’d lose.

And:

It’s hard to teach a young dog old tricks.

I wish you joy in your hunts.

Thanks? I don't quite compute. (pounds avocado toast)

lol. Guess I should be less gnomic.

It is helpful in life and especially in investing for folks to be honest with themselves. Few have the talent to go toe to toe with the Street, especially with options, and consistently come out ahead over time, or at least ahead enough that their time wouldn’t have been more fruitfully spent elsewhere. So, "know thyself" with a side of "ignorance is expensive" and, perhaps, a twist of "fools rush in..."

Not saying this is you, btw, just a general admonition.

And:

The Street has a great many of tricks up its collective sleeves acquired over time and through experience. Be prepared to pay tuition to learn some of them. Be careful that the tuition paid isn’t ruinously expensive.

I hope you have good fortune in what sounds to me like speculation.

 

[AudubonB]

This IBKR article is interesting showing how many are happy to see ARK fail.

Ark of Schadenfreude - Traders' Insight

That's the biggest Blast From the Past I've encountered in a very long time. Gerry Tsai was a household staple...dinner staple/weekend staple/skiing- boating-/vacation staple and so forth for many of my formative years. I can't think of how many decades have passed since I last saw or heard or thought of him.

 

[AudubonB]

Am I dating myself?

Okay, Zoomer.

 

[buttershrimp]

Maybe you are taking away the wrong lessons?

I have believed for many years that Tesla will be the Standard Oil of this century — it will be a behemoth. There is still a lot of time left in this century.

I started buying shares in 2015 and kept buying across the long SP plateau and even into last fall.

My biggest purchase was in the Winter of 2018. Those shares (and probably most of the rest) spent almost the entire next two years underwater. They were about halved in value in the Summer of 2019.

Yet I was confident of my investment thesis. Further, I was aware of the strength of my strategy: Buy when I could and hold on to my shares with all of my willpower.

I do not use options. The Street has too much power and speed as well as so many angles and tricks. This gives them a lot of advantages in the options arena. Besides, using options for protection dilutes your return over time.

Retail has the advantage of time. Patience is a superpower here.

For me, the strain of those underwater years temper the excitement of finally seeing the breakout. If I wanted thrills which I don’t particularly, I’d go somewhere else or just put small sums at risk.

Now that you’ve paid some tuition, I’d suggest you give your experiences more thought and see if you arrive at some different learnings.

Love this post and encouragement. Time to buy and HODL more.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's the macro-market that is a drag today on growth stocks like TSLA. Bond traders are assuming a ramp up in inflation. More likely, technological innovation will continue to keep inflation away. Regarding the effect of rising rates on growth stocks, that should already have been factored into net present value calculations. Once the bond Chicken Littles return to their coops, cooler heads should prevail.

Exactly. We're more likely to see worse deflation than inflation in the near term. Oil is going to fizzle back down to $40 and things will all reverse. This week is just sheep thinking the world hasn't changed since 2002.

I kinda wish Tesla was a traditional growth company, we'd have twice as many gigafactories by now! Unfortunately Wall Street insisted that they be illogically and wildly profitable instead.

 

[buttershrimp]

IMO, this should be a mandatory read for so many new investors, especially TSLA ones.

Many had gone through hell (see highlighted sentences to see when)

Many could not take it sold and quit. Many keep all their shares intact. It is your call people. Just don't whine about it every day.


When that Twitter dude said that "he is quitting his long (sic) (18 months) position" my respect went to -10 for him.
Some still bring him as an example of something and quote his agendas here.

LOL

Does the twitter person you are referencing rhyme with Harry Frack?

 

[Buckminster]

Please send me a message with a link to the correct forum. Thanks.

Nikola Corporation (NKLA) Stock Forum & Discussion - Yahoo Finance

In other news, Everyday Astronaut wishes he had worked harder at school so that he could work a normal 40 hour day.

Those Sols must be getting longer.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 20 minutes ago: Want To Ask Cathie Wood A Question? Here's Your Opportunity

Excerpts:

The founder and CEO of ARK Investment Management will join Benzinga on Wednesday afternoon for an exclusive interview on the "Raz Report" beginning at 2 p.m. ET...

She's also been a longtime bull on Tesla Inc TSLA 4.45% and she proved doubters wrong on her bullish bet from February 2018, calling for Tesla shares to hit $4,000. The stock eclipsed that level, on a split-adjusted basis, earlier this year.

Reminder - Tesla bull Cathie is due to join the podcast shortly at 2 pm EST:

 

[ABCTG]

2021 Shipping Movements

Mr. M suspects a 3rd ship bringing Model 3s to the UK from Shanghai (for Q1 2021)

TANNHAUSER This is the ship that I believe is bringing a 3rd consignment of cars to the UK this quarter from Shanghai.
She is currently heading north through the Red Sea enroute to the Suez Canal where she is due to arrive on Friday. Although not publicly scheduled to arrive in Southampton, I believe she will arrive there on 16 Mar.

 

[johnm6875]

It's the macro-market that is a drag today on growth stocks like TSLA. Bond traders are assuming a ramp up in inflation. More likely, technological innovation will continue to keep inflation away. Regarding the effect of rising rates on growth stocks, that should already have been factored into net present value calculations. Once the bond Chicken Littles return to their coops, cooler heads should prevail.

Fear of inflation but the gold and silver prices are down. ?

 

[2daMoon]

For your viewing pleasure. The latest from The Limiting Factor

 

[9837264723849]

It's the macro-market that is a drag today on growth stocks like TSLA. Bond traders are assuming a ramp up in inflation. More likely, technological innovation will continue to keep inflation away.

Do you take into account the rebound effect? I'm afraid any gain in affordability will be offset by increased demand for goods and services.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Fear of inflation but the gold and silver prices are down. ?

Bitcoin is up 7% as I type. Bitcoin is the new gold, and I'm probably not kidding.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Exactly. We're more likely to see worse deflation than inflation in the near term. Oil is going to fizzle back down to $40 and things will all reverse. This week is just sheep thinking the world hasn't changed since 2002.

I kinda wish Tesla was a traditional growth company, we'd have twice as many gigafactories by now! Unfortunately Wall Street insisted that they be illogically and wildly profitable instead.

That isn't the only reason why Tesla isn't building more factories. Tesla is unusual in that they are constantly innovating. I believe Berlin and Austin are going to have single piece castings for front and back, and then maybe even structural battery packs. And then you have the 4680 battery cells. Those innovations have yet to be proven. I would guess Tesla is fine proving these innovations and working out the bugs before starting work on more factories. You saw this in Supercharger growth - every time they had a major change in models, like from V1 to V2 and V2 to V3, you'd see a low down in SC expansion until they got the bugs worked out of the new manufacturing and design.

 

[corduroy]

I just bought more at $671. Caution: that means another large drop is coming.