Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dancing Lemur]

We’re still lagging behind macros so I’m not convinced that we’re out of the woods yet.

That’s been the case for quite a while. The QQQ was last at this level around Jan 15, when TSLA was in the 840s.

I guess that’s the price for 2020’s outperformance. Still, the blood is soaking through all the bandages on my hands.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Might as well learn how to sell deep OTM covered calls for inflows if you are HODLing forever. It may give you comfort to know that you are practically selling lottery tickets to fools, but hedged by your shares.

Fools meaning people significantly more bullish than you are?

 

[asburgers]

Fools meaning people significantly more bullish than you are?

Significantly more bullish than I am in a 1-4 week timeframe, yes. Low probability events.
I sell way more puts than calls if that gives anyone the fuzzies.

 

[keydiver]

Generally, the order will fill either all in one fill or maybe two to five fills. But my fill for 300 shares this morning was in a whole bunch of 5 and10 share fills with only one block of 100 shares and the next smallest fills were one of 46 and one of 33 shares. All the rest were 5 or 10 share fills that all filled mid $631.This tells me there are a lot of small, individual investors selling out of fear at these levels.

Same thing happened to me this morning. I put in an order for 25 shares @ $655 and it took at least 2 transactions to complete the order.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

We’re still lagging behind macros so I’m not convinced that we’re out of the woods yet.

Now down ~10x macros. I think there is a concerted effort to drive TSLA down.

 

[asburgers]

Now down ~10x macros. I think there is a concerted effort to drive TSLA down.

Even AAPL is recovering. CNBC tried to twist Mr Barron's words this morning over emphasizing that he "sold off" TSLA, when in fact he only sold off a portion of his clients' accounts for portfolio management, and is HODLing his 1.1MM shares for at least 10 years. He said that he told Elon he would be "the last man out".

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Now down ~10x macros. I think there is a concerted effort to drive TSLA down.

Was talking to a couple other long time TSLA investors last night that I know in person and we pretty much think the amount of shorting is crazy high with the intent to cover their shorts by the end of next week. This of course lines up perfectly for shorts. They create a fear panic sell off and the close out their shorts before actual data is reported on April 2nd.

Wonder if the reports of orders filling through multiple transaction is a sign of liquidity constraints due to heavy shorting.

Edit: Now massively underperforming. Man if the Nasdaq goes negative could get pretty ugly

 

[GOVA]

That may indeed have been the case. The low on 2/23 was $619.00, while the low today was $617.01. Both of those drew extremely heavy trading volume during the minutes surrounding the bottoms. Both occurred during steep opening hour dives followed by quick rebounds. Such a combination of events often signals that a period of significant decline has ended.

Thank you for staying around.

 

[goinfraftw]

We're sitting at December ($600-$700) levels now. Two major events since then:

1. January 6th capitol riot - certification of 2020 US Presidential election
2. January 20th Biden presidential start

On November 3rd week (US election results), TSLA was resting at the ~$420 level. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised by 3 catalysts moving the stock price up:

1. Biden EV & Infrastructure Bill/Plan
2. FSD Subscription
3. Better than expected Q1 / 2021 numbers

Anything else?

 

[StealthP3D]

James Stephenson on Twitter: "Here's a graph showing the stock-based compensation expense for the 2018 CEO Performance Award. This is a non-cash expense excluded from non-GAAP earnings and will not exceed $2.283B over the 10-yr life of the compensation plan. 12 of 69 https://t.co/8Gndgwe8P3" / Twitter

Looks like it sets to decrease regardless this quarter and continue decreasing throughout 2021. So it will be a positive earnings trend from here on out.

Tweet 12 of 69 has the chart which really illustrates just how much Tesla's earnings have been impacted by Elon pay package the last 2 quarters.

This is all good and true. But the funny thing is, the earnings number that analysts use and that the press gives the most coverage to are the non-GAP numbers while only the GAP earnings take stock-based compensation into account. This just means growing earnings will have to come from things other than less stock-based compensation being awarded.

 

[asburgers]

Also found this link for FED speech.
JPoW
Watch Jerome Powell at WSJ Jobs Summit

My liege is speaking in 4 minutes viewable at the link above. My optimism hath no bounds.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is all good and true. But the funny thing is, the earnings number that analysts use and that the press gives the most coverage to are the non-GAP numbers while only the GAP earnings take stock-based compensation into account. This just means growing earnings will have to come from things other than less stock-based compensation being awarded.

Analysts use non-GAAP, the media/press definitely doesn't. At least in Tesla's case.

I can't even count the number of articles that used the Q4 GAAP earnings miss along with the narrative of using the GAAP profit and saying that Tesla wouldn't have made a profit without credit revenue. It's not fair because pretty much every other tech company gets reported on by it's non-GAAP earnings but then again I don't expect fair treatment to Tesla.

 

[asburgers]

Analysts use non-GAAP, the media/press definitely doesn't. At least in Tesla's case.

I can't even count the number of articles that used the Q4 GAAP earnings miss along with the narrative of using the GAAP profit and saying that Tesla wouldn't have made a profit without credit revenue. It's not fair because pretty much every other tech company gets reported on by it's non-GAAP earnings but then again I don't expect fair treatment to Tesla.

I agree and sometimes the journalists get confused (intentionally or not is debatable). Non-GAAP is way more relevant for future profitability.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is there some reason you left out the language most spoken in South America? The country that is more than half of the continent.
That's OK Tesla doesn't sell to us either.

OT:

Spoiler: Portuguese

Lol, one entire branch of my family tree speaks Portuguese. The immigration office at Ellis Island decided to deny access to my great Aunt when she arrived at the dock in NYC (she caught the flu during the ocean transit).

On the ship back to Europe, she decided when she tried again the following year, she would not try the U.S.A. Now, well over a century later, her descendants (my 2nd cousins) and their families still live in Rio de Janeiro.

Maybe that's why I forró like a foreigner...

Saúde!

 

[SN_8]

So now they'll let it bounce back half-way while they casually buy back their naked shorts, then hammer the SP again after lunch looking for a close at a new intraday low.

This is unfortunately aging well.

 

[MABMAB]

You're selling here?? That's the only way you could be "losing" money here.

I just bought a few more shares and reserving dry powder in case we get another "wet dream buy opportunity" and I noticed something unusual. Generally, when I enter a market order on Schwab to buy a few hundred shares of TSLA it fills in a relatively small number of separate fills. Generally, the order will fill either all in one fill or maybe two to five fills. But my fill for 300 shares this morning was in a whole bunch of 5 and10 share fills with only one block of 100 shares and the next smallest fills were one of 46 and one of 33 shares. All the rest were 5 or 10 share fills that all filled mid $631.

This tells me there are a lot of small, individual investors selling out of fear at these levels.

Or they were disguising a large order

 

[Cape Coddess]

Just got home from supercharging and shopping and I got to trade notification that I picked up another few shares at $620!
Whaaaaat???
Definitely wasn't expecting that.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There goes the macro's.......let's see how ugly this gets

I'd honestly just prefer a capitulation across the board at this point. Let's just get it over with

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 2 hours ago: Tesla and Nio have sold off, but the EV party is just getting started and China is key, say these analysts

Excerpts:

...But investors have no reason to unbuckle yet, the analysts said, because "the EV party is just beginning," they wrote in a note on Thursday...

While the global chip shortage has "modestly impacted production capacity" at the likes of Tesla (TSLA) and Nio (NIO), the Wedbush analysts believe this will be normalized throughout the course of this month...

Despite the recent headwinds, Wedbush remains bullish on electric-vehicle stocks, projecting a $5 trillion market opportunity over the next 10 years. This is based on a growth in EV market penetration from 3% today to 10% by 2025, with much more to come.

The analysts point to established auto makers, like Volvo , GM (GM), and Ford (F), getting into the electric-vehicle business as substantive evidence that there is pent-up global demand for EV technology...

The analysts also project that there will be a "green tidal wave" driven by President Joe Biden's administration, with tax credits and incentives around electric-vehicles...

 

[Cherry Wine]

There goes the macro's.......let's see how ugly this gets

I'd honestly just prefer a capitulation across the board at this point. Let's just get it over with

I mean, we're almost there. How much is left to go at this point? 10%? 20%?