Cherry Wine
Supporting Member
I mean, we're almost there. How much is left to go at this point? 10%? 20%?
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I mean, we're almost there. How much is left to go at this point? 10%? 20%?
I've been saying this for the past 3 days and no one has listened to me...."Halt the stock already!!!" 
I mean I want the Nasdaq to take a 5% dive, tech take a big dive, and so on big volume in just a single day. Even if that means Tesla is down 10% or more today. Just feels like that kind of day needs to happen so everything can just move on at this point and that would hopefully end this streak of Tesla underperforming the macros.
That's been the silent killer for the past 2 months. Continual weakness against the macros.
I am somewhat comforted by the fact that we're tracking 2020's chart almost to a tee lol. Hopefully that means big things after the March route
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Tesla was initially the odd one out, but now the other techs are getting hit.
Several SPACs are back to their pre-reverse merger announcement levels
Several SPACs are back to their pre-reverse merger announcement levels
asburgers
Member
Fed Chair Powell Notes:
- Congress has given them two goals: max employment and price stability
- Today: economy began to recover may'20 with good progress into beg fall; then progress slowed with winter covid; still a long way from goal;
- Good reason to see job creation pick up (10MM fewer people working vs before COVID)
- Inflation: currently running below 2%; to move up as economy reopens and surge in spending; have tools to anchor long run inflation at 2%
- Max employment: wants to see wages moving up, gains in employment are broad based across demographics (labor force participation metric) rather than relying on unemployment metric (excludes people who have stopped looking for work for various reasons - company closed, etc)
- Does not think that max employment will be achieved this year, employment recovery hasn't happened yet
- Asset purchases will continue at current level until substantial actual progress towards goal - it would take some time to achieve
- Economy is a long ways away from raising rates
- If they do see what they believe a transitory increase in long term inflation: he expects the Fed to be patient
- As it relates to bond markets: would be concerned if they see disorderly market or persistent business conditions tightening
- Fed policies are outcome based (ie. wait for actual conditions to occur before raising rates)
- Expects inflation to raise on re-opening but views this as transient (one time event)
- Intends to use tools to anchor long term inflation at 2%
- High inflation is very bad - hurts people with low/fixed incomes; Fed will not allow this to happen as with previous Fed administrations in the 60s/70s
- Missed last 3 mins (had to pee)
TL;DR: Asset purchases and low rates to be maintained until max employment has been achieved. Fed to use tools to peg long term inflation at 2%. Short term/transitory inflation is not a concern. Watching bond markets carefully will act if market is disorderly or liquidity is constrained - suggests they will observe, along with a broad range of markets, before acting. Fed will fight high inflation.
I guess he stayed on point and didn't say anything inflammatory in either direction. Bond yields increased during speech on perceived lack of Fed intervention?
- Congress has given them two goals: max employment and price stability
- Today: economy began to recover may'20 with good progress into beg fall; then progress slowed with winter covid; still a long way from goal;
- Good reason to see job creation pick up (10MM fewer people working vs before COVID)
- Inflation: currently running below 2%; to move up as economy reopens and surge in spending; have tools to anchor long run inflation at 2%
- Max employment: wants to see wages moving up, gains in employment are broad based across demographics (labor force participation metric) rather than relying on unemployment metric (excludes people who have stopped looking for work for various reasons - company closed, etc)
- Does not think that max employment will be achieved this year, employment recovery hasn't happened yet
- Asset purchases will continue at current level until substantial actual progress towards goal - it would take some time to achieve
- Economy is a long ways away from raising rates
- If they do see what they believe a transitory increase in long term inflation: he expects the Fed to be patient
- As it relates to bond markets: would be concerned if they see disorderly market or persistent business conditions tightening
- Fed policies are outcome based (ie. wait for actual conditions to occur before raising rates)
- Expects inflation to raise on re-opening but views this as transient (one time event)
- Intends to use tools to anchor long term inflation at 2%
- High inflation is very bad - hurts people with low/fixed incomes; Fed will not allow this to happen as with previous Fed administrations in the 60s/70s
- Missed last 3 mins (had to pee)
TL;DR: Asset purchases and low rates to be maintained until max employment has been achieved. Fed to use tools to peg long term inflation at 2%. Short term/transitory inflation is not a concern. Watching bond markets carefully will act if market is disorderly or liquidity is constrained - suggests they will observe, along with a broad range of markets, before acting. Fed will fight high inflation.
I guess he stayed on point and didn't say anything inflammatory in either direction. Bond yields increased during speech on perceived lack of Fed intervention?
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I mean, somebody smarter than me must know the answer to this question, right?
Knowing that the US Government will sell an enormous amount of treasuries next week to fund the bill, how can the Fed let yield shoot up like this?
Knowing that the US Government will sell an enormous amount of treasuries next week to fund the bill, how can the Fed let yield shoot up like this?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Big investors still know their primary source if gains will be tech, so these "rotations" can only go so far before everyone scrambles to get back in.
Keep in kind TSLA is 10% below inclusion, any S&P benchmarked fund is massively incentivized to load up here.
And all of this is with a backdrop of unprecedented liquidity sloshing around. The 10yr is trying to battle back to 2%, but it doesn't stand a chance. If anything we'll be lower Dec 31st than today.
Cherry Wine
Supporting Member
Thanks for doing this.
MTL_HABS1909
Member
Are you referring to the 10 yr or Tesla stock? Cause I would have a hard time seeing the stock lower than 620/share on Dec 31st unless Tesla really screws up execution this year
Holding puts since the SP was $820. Will buy shares @ $420
asburgers
Member
MTL_HABS1909
Member
5 posts in 5 years. Cool.
Guys - my portfolio could use a hug right about now
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Big Time
Member
Bought the dip....... I’m peanuts for dry powder got 1 additional.... for the cause
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Come on Nasdaq! Take the dump we've all been waiting for
(Not to come off the wrong way cause not the best etiquette to be rooting for lower share prices. But I think this really needs to happen for the stock to move forward. I already have all of my chips(including calls) on the table back at 680-700/share price) so it's not like I'm benefiting from it going lower)
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