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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. capster

    capster Supporting Member

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    It is worthwhile to watch Jerome Powell’s interview today at the WSJ Jobs Summit.

    Watch Jerome Powell at WSJ Jobs Summit

    I’m not going to pull out quotes because he says a number of things without actually stating them baldly.

    If one main takeaway is wanted, it’s this: The Fed is not going reduce the support it’s giving until the economy is all but fully recovered and that is likely to take some time. Powell deliberately avoids giving a time frame but it’s pretty clear from his remarks that the Fed thinks it won’t be this year.

    Again, well worth a listen especially in light of the current discussions about inflation.
     
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  2. Singuy

    Singuy Active Member

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    So that makes it a triple bottom?
     
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  3. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    #247383 gene, Mar 4, 2021 at 1:45 PM
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021 at 1:51 PM
    Me at the very same price but only 50.

    @Thumper, I miss your old bunny rabbit icon!
     
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  4. UnknownSoldier

    UnknownSoldier Unknown Member

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    Early assignment is a thing, I learned that from the legendary 1RONYMAN on WSB. Don't sell puts without the cash to buy the shares unless you enjoy margin calls.

    An alternative to doing this is selling calls, then the worst thing that happens to you is you're forced to sell your shares at some predefined value above where the SP is now.
     
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  5. Cherry Wine

    Cherry Wine Supporting Member

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    This forum will probably become a less solid bellwether for a bottom going forward, since even down 30% from recent highs we're all still well in the green I expect.
     
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  6. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Supporting Member

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    Its good to be cashless and all-in. Makes life that much easier!
    No worries about when to buy or what to buy, just sit tight and HODL.
    No need for Regretamine ;)
     
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  7. sroh

    sroh Supporting Member

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    Would love an example. I understand covered calls well. But I'm having difficulty in my small brain how selling covered calls against a long LEAP works, in particular how/why you can be a bit more aggressive with strike prices. Do you mean because you can continue to roll if the SP gets above the strike price?
     
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  8. gene

    gene Supporting Member

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    I would be a "retired millionaire", and as I am 65, I really should enjoy the fruits of my patience with TSLA since 2012. But sadly, I am emotionally involved with my shares, I just can't let any of them go. And so, I continue to work my business. I guess it will be my children who will be those to reap the good life.
     
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  9. sroh

    sroh Supporting Member

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    Used to be....
     
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  10. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    #247390 dl003, Mar 4, 2021 at 1:50 PM
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021 at 2:07 PM
    Powell stayed true to his color. Looks like he's not going to appease the market just because we're going through some pain. The fact of the matter is certain sections of the market have gotten way ahead of themselves. I was concerned about next week treasury auctions but since the General Account is ample, not so much anymore. Next week will be the ultimate test for the market. Bond shorts are betting on disastrous auctions as buyers don't show up.
    But just like COVID, at some point the market is going to get tired of the inflation boogeyman. If these bond shorts keep shorting bonds, at some point the equity market will say "hey, yield keep going up. Maybe I don't have to sell my stocks now and just wait till next month when bond prices will be even lower." At some point these shorts are going to be overextended and get squeezed.
    When the stimulus money has been dispersed and there's still no inflation/rate hikes, money sitting on the sideline will start burning their pockets. Patience and risk management are key at this point.
     
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  11. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    I'd call it a double bottom, but only if TSLA moves up from here. Perhaps you are including the low of 2/26, which I am not.
     
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  12. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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    Nope. Some of us decided opening a small business was a good idea. You know, like a coffee shop or dive bar. I'm a little too risk adverse for that so I put all my money into risky, high-growth stocks but some people like to live on the edge. :eek:
     
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  13. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    I bought a 1/22 400 call when we were at 680 for $330.
    Been selling weekly covered calls at the highest daily resistance level for $6-7. First it was 750, then 730. Next week its 715.
    I have no problem selling my LEAP to close out a weekly because I will win anyway. If it was my core shares, I would pick a much higher strike.
    But yes, I can roll the weeklies up and/or out quite easily with Portfolio Margin.
     
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  14. KMCC

    KMCC Supporting Member

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    All my shares are staying put.
    when I originally purchased them years ago I planned on giving them to my children when I die, and I'm trying to stick to the plan, although lately they have been asking me to buy a vacation home in lake placid with some of the money.
     
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  15. asburgers

    asburgers Member

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    The wholesomeness of some of you folks and your supportive wives is awesome.
     
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  16. traxila

    traxila Supporting Member

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    You said it, sibling!

    Can't believe how much money I lost on paper this past month. Truth is I don't function well with daily seven figure swings. It messes me up even though nothing has changed. Shows you that if not for HODL, I would probably never have made the money. If you care about money, it is very hard to make a lot of it in the market. I obviously care too much about it. Probably some leftover PTSD from earlier in life when I had a negative net worth.

    Guess I could still lose it all if TSLA goes to zero. Eh, will take my chances.

    And yet, the current stock price is still well above what I was projecting for a fat 2028 retirement.
     
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  17. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Supporting Member

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    Yeah it makes me a little nauseous too. ;)
     
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  18. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    This notion - that nothing has fundamentally changed with the company but the macro economic factors are pushing us down, is something I've been thinking about for more than a year (since this Covid thing started). Doesn't mean I was right then or now, but I also continue to see the bias in the shares as down over up.

    I've also seen this dynamic - a good company with no changes in fundamentals - have their shares driven down back in 2008 or 09. I found a great company paying a nearly guaranteed dividend that was worth $80/share that was on sale for $40/share. Bought me a 11% dividend that continued expanding every quarter I owned the company.

    Or more specifically - even back at 700 - I was expecting 600 before 800 and that is still true (and not nearly as big of a prediction today :D).

    I'm also starting to think 500 before 800 with low 400s on the table. Low 400s was where we were when the S&P announcement was made. We traded from there up to 700 awfully fast. So one view on this downward move is its a retracement to go fill in that move from low 400s to high 600s that went by so fast.


    And more broadly for anybody that is looking to their TSLA holding to provide income (via sales or options), be sure you're positioned for the rest of a 50% move down (low 400s from upper 800s). I've felt like at least one of these over the next decade was inevitable. I didn't really consider the start of 2021 to be one of these, but I also didn't think that it couldn't happen.

    I would sure like to be wrong and see the shares start moving back up.
     
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  19. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Active Member

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    I can't even afford a wife anymore.
     
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  20. BlackS

    BlackS Supporting Member

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    I learned my lesson after my 4th one! Its cheaper to keep her!
     
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