Pras
Member
You predicted a reversal today, so far on track, let’s hope you are right!
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ibkr is much much lower (0.75 to 1.75% depending on amount) however they don't do margin calls, they just insta-sell if you hit a limit. So there's some additional risk
You know what they say about what to do when life gives you lemons, right?
I got to thinking about how I have put off moving shares from the IRA to the ROTH because of the tax hit.
Guess what is now less of a concern? That pesky tax hit got discounted, didn't it?
Waiting on a return call from Fidelity to line this up and get some more shares comfortably residing in the ROTH.
Thought I'd pass this along if anyone else might find it useful.
I got to thinking about how I have put off moving shares from the IRA to the ROTH because of the tax hit.
Guess what is now less of a concern? That pesky tax hit got discounted, didn't it?
Waiting on a return call from Fidelity to line this up and get some more shares comfortably residing in the ROTH.
Thought I'd pass this along if anyone else might find it useful.
Perhaps I should be more concerned than I am, but because we just lived through pretty much this exact same price action a year earlier to-the-date, I am not at all worried about Tesla.
It's fun to take a trip down memory lane and read @Papafox posts from last year at this time. Here's his post from 2-20-20, where TSLA closed at an ATH of $917 (#2958), and here's his post from 3-18-20 (#2984) where we bottomed out at $350 and started rising.
Not saying things are going to play out like this again, just saying we've been here before and I'm not worried. Fun to be enjoying the ride with you all, it's been quite the adventure, and the adventure continues. Just think where we'll be 10 years from now!
It's fun to take a trip down memory lane and read @Papafox posts from last year at this time. Here's his post from 2-20-20, where TSLA closed at an ATH of $917 (#2958), and here's his post from 3-18-20 (#2984) where we bottomed out at $350 and started rising.
Not saying things are going to play out like this again, just saying we've been here before and I'm not worried. Fun to be enjoying the ride with you all, it's been quite the adventure, and the adventure continues. Just think where we'll be 10 years from now!
asburgers
Member
Funny - I'm watching it now too.
TL ; DW:
- Gene interviews Prof Louis Johnston (U of St Johns)
- Fed wants you to trust them and stay calm
- Market believes that Fed will not be successful in controlling inflation
- Temporary inflation example now: ability to get silicon chips (two places that manufacture - both in E. Asia)
- Data for Fed is reliable but have to pick the right gauge; CPI will show a way bigger burst in temp inflation than other metrics
- Prof Johnston believes Fed messaging and credibility; therefore don't build current outlook into long term models
- QE 101: Suppose rates for 10/20/30 Y bonds go up. If Fed believes it's too high, they will go out in the market to buy to lower rates
- Possible but not likely Fed will QE unless rates rise significantly and/or credibility is called into question
- What more can the Fed do? A: That's up to Congress to change mandate (ie. buy corp bonds, etc) - unlikely but have been used in 2008 and early 2020
- Average person will be spending more on homes for 30Y mortgage due to inventory + long end rates increasing
- Forecast: Long rates will go up (3-4% for gov bonds) but will come down again; depends on economy growth and pent up demand. If strong GDP growth >4%, interest rates (gov bonds) may increase to 4% at the long end
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I have previously commented on the possibility that Market Makers try to move the SP close to Max Pain at Friday's expiry.
What I find even more interesting as an example of possible market manipulation are days such as these, where during the day the SP momentarily makes a move way down (apparently due to massive sell orders) - yesterday to 600, today to under 540, a Monday (last week or a week before) to around 620$ - and right up again.
These moves will clear out stop-loss orders - and will also cause margin calls to over-leveraged longs. (TMC always talk about margin calls for short sellers, but here it goes the other way).
Anyway, the end effect is to deprive over-leveraged or otherwise unprepared investors of their shares at a low price.
The fact that these steep, momentary dips happen so frequently (at certain times) tells me that someone is making a profit from them.
PS. Others on TMC have mentioned this before - saving readers here a lot of trouble...
PPS. Volume today is impressive - so it will be extra impressive if we end up just over 600, bringing the close to 15k put/call contracts imbalance at 600$ out of the money...
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The tax hit is lower in present dollars, but the real impact is the effective tax rate of pulling that money out now in one big chunk versus in incremental amounts during retirement. With the increasing tax rate vs income, shifting to the Roth may be a net loss.You know what they say about what to do when life gives you lemons, right?
I got to thinking about how I have put off moving shares from the IRA to the ROTH because of the tax hit.
Guess what is now less of a concern? That pesky tax hit got discounted, didn't it?
Waiting on a return call from Fidelity to line this up and get some more shares comfortably residing in the ROTH.
Thought I'd pass this along if anyone else might find it useful.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Just sold 1/3rd of my TSLA
Bought 650 March 2023 calls
Bought 650 March 2023 calls
Tes La Ferrari
Member
Never thought id be so happy seeing $TSLA only down $25 
gabeincal
HODLer / Theta seller
With the market's downturn, I think a bunch of retail folks are realizing that making consistent returns with stocks is not as easy as they thought a couple months ago.
They are probably over-leveraged and getting margin called as we speak. They will drop their shares, the smart players grab them and ride them up back to 900.
I suppose this keeps the retail crowd at bay (and at work).
They are probably over-leveraged and getting margin called as we speak. They will drop their shares, the smart players grab them and ride them up back to 900.
I suppose this keeps the retail crowd at bay (and at work).
Would love to do stuff like that. But how do handle the tax issues. Tax free account?
BornToFly
Supporting Member
I realized that after the SP recovers and I resell my covered calls, I'm going to do March 2022 expiration instead of January so I can take advantage of this dip next year.
If you have something of value, someone else probably wants it. If you have something of GREAT value, then the likelihood is higher someone will want to steal it, through increasingly nefarious means if necessary.
The trick during this roller-coaster we're on is to not let go of your things of value. If you over-leverage (as we all have or have been tempted to do at various times), you make it easier for those that wish to steal from you.
It's kind of simple as that.
Having stuck with TSLA in 2018-2019 and suffering many (paper) losses, it's great to still be UP and not have the recent losses bother you at all.
All eyes on long term prize.
(Play long and take advantage of the short term games others are playing)
I'm transferring shares between a Rollover IRA and a ROTH IRA. I'm only moving enough shares to get the ROTH up to 101 shares, rather than moving the whole kit and kaboodle over. That tax hit wouldn't be worth the trouble. As it is, this will cost me under $4K at 22% and I'm retiring in about a week, so the tax rate could very likely be even lower by April of '22.
I've done the math, extensively, and have come to essentially the same conclusion you make.
However, getting a minimum of 100 shares in the ROTH opens up some, let's say "optional," opportunities that wouldn't be available if there were less than 100 in there.
Aint it funny how its always a cycle and when it happens....people sell and then have to buy back in at a higher price
asburgers
Member
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