insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I was recently looking at some TSLA positions I sold back in 2013 & 2014. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. Agree 100%, do not sell TSLA
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sure this is a sign of strong demand. But perhaps they are also doing this now to capture more of the anticipated US EV tax credit renewal. And if so we might expect a few more gradual increases on the 3 and Y. It makes what they are doing less obvious and maddening for buyers than say, upping the price by $7500 the day the credit is passed.Price increase of $500 on Model 3 SR+/LR, $1,000 on Model Y LR...........and Plaid + S got a price increase of $10,000
pz1975
Active Member
This is why I only use LEAPS (and shorter-based options sometimes) for trading TSLA now. I never touch my core shares (except to add sometimes).
Pezpunk
Active Member
The Model S Plaid+ is priced way too low for what it is, if you ask me. 500 mile range, all the utility of a station wagon, simply unmatched technology, and performance that outclasses million-dollar supercars. It's absurd.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla Perma Bears " Tesla decreases prices? Bad, because they don't have enough demand at current prices. Tesla increases prices? Bad, it is because they can't generate profits without regulatory credits and credits are fading because of new compelling BEVs from legacy automakers."
Tesla Hyper Bulls "Tesla decreases prices? Good, because it means Tesla has lowered cost and wants to accelerate The Transition (even though Tesla can always sell every car it can make at current prices without advertising). Tesla increases prices? Good, it is proof of functionally infinite demand."
Tesla Hyper Bulls "Tesla decreases prices? Good, because it means Tesla has lowered cost and wants to accelerate The Transition (even though Tesla can always sell every car it can make at current prices without advertising). Tesla increases prices? Good, it is proof of functionally infinite demand."
They should lower the price of the Roadster too. Only because I want one but don't want to pay $200k for it.
I’d bet residuals will be super strong for at least a couple of years too, making cost of ownership an absolute bargain.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
You learned the wrong lesson. The proper lesson is that taxes are a distraction, and should be ignored if they might influence you to make a poor investing decision.
A bit sticky at 699.Hopefully that momentum continues, unlike yesterday.
Never mind! $700+
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Futures on fire overnight: NASDAQ-100 Futures are up +1.88%
| Index | Month | Last | High | Low | Chg. | Chg. % | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 30 | Mar 21 | 32,403.0 | 32,435.0 | 32,255.0 | +124.0 | +0.38% | 04:24:10 | ||
| US 500 | Mar 21 | 3,927.38 | 3,929.12 | 3,893.12 | +30.88 | +0.79% | 04:24:08 | ||
| US Tech 100 | Mar 21 | 12,988.88 | 12,998.50 | 12,724.50 | +239.63 | +1.88% | 04:24:12 |
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petit_bateau
Active Member
More from the UBS id3 strip report, UBS disassembles & analyzes ID.3 - electrive.com
"UBS analysts have disassembled a VW ID.3 and come to the conclusion that the MEB platform is “fully competitive” with Tesla in terms of cost. VW achieves “first-class energy density, efficiency and scalability”. That being said, when it comes to the battery and its costs, Tesla remains ahead.
According to the UBS experts, VW has a cost disadvantage of 1,300 US dollars per car (currently 1,078 euros) compared to Tesla when it comes to batteries and it is “unlikely” that this gap can be closed in view of Tesla’s vertical integration and innovative strength. For the disassembly of the ID.3 and the subsequent analysis, the major Swiss bank worked with the electric car experts of the P3 Group.
In terms of the costs for the production of the vehicles and the important margin in sales, VW could reach parity by 2025, according to the analysis. In other words from then on, VW would earn as much on the sale of an ID.3 as on a Golf.
VW’s software platform and ecosystem are top-notch compared to most classic OEMs, but are “years behind Tesla”. The LG battery cells used in the VW ID.3 cost around $100 per kilowatt-hour (€83/kWh), putting them in the top 3 worldwide, along with CATL and Tesla.
Although an ID.3 was disassembled for the analysis, UBS says it expects to be able to transfer the results to other vehicles based on the MEB. Since a Model 3 was already disassembled two years ago, UBS considers its figures on the price difference for the batteries to be reliable. Based on this experience, the experts dare to predict that the advantage in battery costs with the structural battery packs in the Model Y with the 4680 cells could bring Tesla’s cost advantage back up to 2,000 dollars (1,659 euros) per vehicle."
Using the TSLA Q4 2020 numbers average price per vehicle is $59k and average cost per vehicle is $48k (I am throwing all energy sales & revenue in the pot for simplicity) for GM of $11k and a 19% GM%. An average model 3 will be lower than that as the Y, S, X costs and prices will raise the fleet average. So lets take a SWAG and say that an average 3 maintains the same GM% of 19% but a price of $42k and a cost of $34k for a GM of $8k.
I am unclear from what is written if the id3 is equal cost with the 3, or would be equal cost except for the $1300 / $2000 battery cost penalty. The "fully competitive" bit is somewhat misleading 1! Let's assume that VAG is not actually "fully competitive" but is instead "nearly fully competitive" and this would give an equivalent VAG product the same price of $42k, a cost (now) of $35.3k and a GM of $6.7k for a GM% of 16%.
So the 'now' position is a VAG GM% of 16% and a TSLA GM% of 19%.
Fast forward a year and UBS and TSLA both expect that TSLA will be adopting the 4680 cells and decreasing costs by a further $700. I would hazard a guess that TSLA costs will go down a lot more than that due to the front & rear castings, and due to increased localisation (no shipping to EU, no import duties - gotta be worth 10-15% GM alone in EU, or say 5% on the global blend). But let's be somewhat conservative and just make that $1000 reduction. TSLA's past form is to lower price as costs reduce so TSLA would then be at:
cost = $33k; price = $41k; GM = 8k; GM% = 19%
VAG would need to follow and their situation would become:
cost = $35.3k; price = $41k; GM = 5.7k; GM% = 14%
It is worth bearing in mind that VAG is in the best position of all the legacy car manufacturers.
"UBS analysts have disassembled a VW ID.3 and come to the conclusion that the MEB platform is “fully competitive” with Tesla in terms of cost. VW achieves “first-class energy density, efficiency and scalability”. That being said, when it comes to the battery and its costs, Tesla remains ahead.
According to the UBS experts, VW has a cost disadvantage of 1,300 US dollars per car (currently 1,078 euros) compared to Tesla when it comes to batteries and it is “unlikely” that this gap can be closed in view of Tesla’s vertical integration and innovative strength. For the disassembly of the ID.3 and the subsequent analysis, the major Swiss bank worked with the electric car experts of the P3 Group.
In terms of the costs for the production of the vehicles and the important margin in sales, VW could reach parity by 2025, according to the analysis. In other words from then on, VW would earn as much on the sale of an ID.3 as on a Golf.
VW’s software platform and ecosystem are top-notch compared to most classic OEMs, but are “years behind Tesla”. The LG battery cells used in the VW ID.3 cost around $100 per kilowatt-hour (€83/kWh), putting them in the top 3 worldwide, along with CATL and Tesla.
Although an ID.3 was disassembled for the analysis, UBS says it expects to be able to transfer the results to other vehicles based on the MEB. Since a Model 3 was already disassembled two years ago, UBS considers its figures on the price difference for the batteries to be reliable. Based on this experience, the experts dare to predict that the advantage in battery costs with the structural battery packs in the Model Y with the 4680 cells could bring Tesla’s cost advantage back up to 2,000 dollars (1,659 euros) per vehicle."
Using the TSLA Q4 2020 numbers average price per vehicle is $59k and average cost per vehicle is $48k (I am throwing all energy sales & revenue in the pot for simplicity) for GM of $11k and a 19% GM%. An average model 3 will be lower than that as the Y, S, X costs and prices will raise the fleet average. So lets take a SWAG and say that an average 3 maintains the same GM% of 19% but a price of $42k and a cost of $34k for a GM of $8k.
I am unclear from what is written if the id3 is equal cost with the 3, or would be equal cost except for the $1300 / $2000 battery cost penalty. The "fully competitive" bit is somewhat misleading 1! Let's assume that VAG is not actually "fully competitive" but is instead "nearly fully competitive" and this would give an equivalent VAG product the same price of $42k, a cost (now) of $35.3k and a GM of $6.7k for a GM% of 16%.
So the 'now' position is a VAG GM% of 16% and a TSLA GM% of 19%.
Fast forward a year and UBS and TSLA both expect that TSLA will be adopting the 4680 cells and decreasing costs by a further $700. I would hazard a guess that TSLA costs will go down a lot more than that due to the front & rear castings, and due to increased localisation (no shipping to EU, no import duties - gotta be worth 10-15% GM alone in EU, or say 5% on the global blend). But let's be somewhat conservative and just make that $1000 reduction. TSLA's past form is to lower price as costs reduce so TSLA would then be at:
cost = $33k; price = $41k; GM = 8k; GM% = 19%
VAG would need to follow and their situation would become:
cost = $35.3k; price = $41k; GM = 5.7k; GM% = 14%
It is worth bearing in mind that VAG is in the best position of all the legacy car manufacturers.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
its not just about the car. VAG is tainted by dieselgate, and has no supercharger network. When an ID3 costs what a model 3 costs, who the hell buys an ID3?
Also, does the ID3 have best in class autonomy?
Also, does the ID3 have best in class autonomy?
Pras
Member
A few things, Tesla gross margins is in 20-25% range and it will try to maintain that even as ticket prices come down. I think some bulls assume it to grow in 30% range as well but I think that may be difficult with model 2 (but possible). With FSD level 5, all equations are off.
On the other side VW margins if not negative, will likely remain in single digits.
Tesla benefits significantly from automation/innovation, vertical integration, lack of dealership and FSD revenue. On VW dealership point, likely dealers will ask higher margins for EV as they will receive less servicing revenue.
I think tesla will continue to have massive margin lead in the next 5-10 years.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Tesla's overall GM% was 19% in Q4 2020. Whilst I happen to agree with you that TSLA is targetting 20-25% range and cutting prices as fast as possible whilst consistent with that aim, nonetheless it was actually 19% in Q4. And that GM% both includes the benefit of the so-far-recognised FSD, and the drag of the energy division.
Pras
Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
We are talking cars .... but if you follow through my methodology (which I explained clearly in my first post) I took the total Q4 20 results for simplicity and calculated out a blended avge 3 from that based on the GM% of 19%. I then offset a id3 for comparison, Then I rolled forwards one year to do the compare & contrast.
If you want to pick out the auto-only numbers then yes indeed it will give a higher GM% for autos, but you must also carry out the corresponding offset calculation to inspect the id3. If you do that you will arrive at the same place in comparing the relative GM% numbers.
Bottom line is that what one needs to be concentrating on is that the ~3% -delta GM of VAG vs TSLA in 2020 widens to become a ~5% delta GM% in 2021. It is the widening gap in those GM% that is the key thing here, and one needs to do an apples-to-apples comparison with a consistent methodology to achieve that. As price falls, and competition means that price will fall, then unless something changes in the competitive landscape that works against Tesla, then that GM% gap will further widen in a way that works against competitors such as VAG. I think that they may be running at a NM% loss in BEV in VAG, and I rather suspect the same holds true for almost all OECD legacy manufacturers entering the BEV space. That is exactly why they don't publish their BEV GM% and NM% data - they'd be screaming from the rooftops if a) it was higher than their ICE numbers and/or b) positive !
I happen to agree with your other points by the way. I'm not seeking to be pernickety either, but is so seldom that we get any insight into GM and GM% of any other BEV manufacturer that we ought to slice and dice the numbers to reveal as much knowledge as we can.
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