The counter argument to this is that people will need and want ars and Tesla can't grow fast enough to supply all the world's hunger for new cars even if they grow 50% year after year. And in that reality VAG and many other auto makers will survive the transition.
I don’t believe they will or that they can. At first thought that seems to make sense until you remember that most companies simply can’t digest big or rapid reductions of sales. And companies that run very close to the profit line even more so. Review every economic downturn and pandemic for reference.
The OEMs are going to have to repeatedly and aggressively downsize to stay in business. The smaller they get, the less they have the ability to offer a variety of vehicles and service them. How ironic if GM become a niche player. Justice would be served.
Just look at what we’re already seeing. Ford is fighting survival by dropping several lower margin and less popular models and sticking to trucks. A number of others are merging (repeatedly) to pool their resources.
One OEM just spent 50 billion to make large paperweights. One is pretending EVs are not the future. And a few of the middle men are hanging their hats on overpriced ‘luxury’ models per their usual m.o.
I’m not sure how it plays out, but I’m pretty sure it doesn’t turn out like many think it will with endless bailouts and the likes of GM going all electric by ‘pick a nice round number’ and being recognizable.
So far the transition has been pretty non-dramatic for everyone except Tesla. Wait until the
hits the fan. Get you garbage bag and front row
while you can. Going to be epic.